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Rydal
13 Jan 17 09:00
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Date Joined: 15 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 723 | Blogger: Rydal's blog
Labour MP Tristram Hunt quits to become director of Victoria and Albert Museum
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Report anxious February 23, 2017 2:19 PM GMT
Are the right wing bar room bores already crying
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 2:30 PM GMT
I am now hearing from a normally reliable source who has very good UKIP contacts that they have "no chance" in Stoke.
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 2:36 PM GMT
However, the betting suggests otherwise as UKIP have no came in to 2/1 across the board.
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 2:40 PM GMT
now!
Report ZenMaster February 23, 2017 2:55 PM GMT
Apparently Gareth Snell doesn't have a nice word to say about Brexit.

That's a bit like wanting to represent Man City but supporting United.
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 4:30 PM GMT
Story now circulating from both the Tories and LibDems that UKIP will finish third.
Report xmoneyx February 23, 2017 5:07 PM GMT
another victim hillsborough
Report InsiderTrader February 23, 2017 5:08 PM GMT
Odd Labour still 1.4 under those circumstances. If you back the open-border-leftists enough times at odds-on eventually you will back a winner. A broken clock is correct twice a day.
Report anxious February 23, 2017 5:12 PM GMT
IT chucking in the towel as Benitio Nuttall gets a good hiding Laugh
Report InsiderTrader February 23, 2017 5:20 PM GMT
I am surprised at the price if those with inside info are saying UKIP will be 3rd.

Comparing people to Hitler or another fascist dictator is an insult to the millions who have actually died at the hands real communist and fascist leaders. Surely people can have a different view without wheeling out such crazy comparisons.
Report anxious February 23, 2017 5:22 PM GMT
Not as much as Nutall as insulted the people of Liverpool
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 5:23 PM GMT
i think its more the campaign style that causes the comparison to hitler

and seems justified
Report ZenMaster February 23, 2017 5:27 PM GMT
Why, did Hitler put down his new address on his application form?
Report smartie3 February 23, 2017 5:30 PM GMT
UKIP will win, just
Report anxious February 23, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
This will be interesting to see if the market and the polls get this right , with Brexit and the US election they got it badly wrong , think Labour will win here with a low turnout
Report xmoneyx February 23, 2017 6:18 PM GMT
Britain Elects‏ @britainelects
Source on the ground in Stoke on Trent Central says Tories are siphoning off UKIP pledges. Enthusiasm to vote is low
Report TheBaron February 23, 2017 6:23 PM GMT
Surprised people think UKIP have a chance.  Brexit going ahead so they revert back to type regardless of Jezza.
Report dom888 February 23, 2017 6:36 PM GMT

Feb 23, 2017 -- 11:43AM, anxious wrote:


This will be interesting to see if the market and the polls get this right , with Brexit and the US election they got it badly wrong , think Labour will win here with a low turnout


brexit was not a big surprise
it was stay 4/6 leave 6/4 quite a Long time
only 1 week before brexit it went to 1.2
it astonishes me that people use the word sensation when a 6/4 happens, ridiculous

Report dom888 February 23, 2017 6:38 PM GMT
at which time will be the first results?
or do i have stay up all night Laugh
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 6:43 PM GMT
Latest news is that the UKIP price is now in freefall with 5.1 matched on here. Traditional bookies moving the price out too.  Estimated results time is 1-2am.
Report ZenMaster February 23, 2017 6:45 PM GMT
We've seen this movement before haven't we?
Report xmoneyx February 23, 2017 6:46 PM GMT
9m
David Maddox‏ @DavidPBMaddox
If Stoke Central has a turnout of 18.2% (matching lowest ever record) the winner will need just under 5,700 votes to definitely win
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 6:46 PM GMT
still a little nibbling at tory price around 12/1
Report dom888 February 23, 2017 6:47 PM GMT
i am swiss and informed myself on the Internet but after i read this i wouldnt back labour at 4/11.
it was express.co.uk, i have no idea how trustworthy it is

Mr Snell voted to Remain in the EU referendum but has said that he will not “frustrate the triggering of Article 50” - the step that starts Brexit talks.

Stoke-on-Trent voters are among some of the the most Eurosceptic in the UK, with nearly 70 per cent backing Brexit during the EU referendum.

Mr Snell provoked outrage by describing Brexit as a “pile of s***” after the referendum. He has also apologised for a series of offensive tweets aimed at women on TV.
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 6:48 PM GMT
labour shorter in stoke than tories in copeland
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 6:49 PM GMT

Feb 23, 2017 -- 12:47PM, dom888 wrote:


i am swiss and informed myself on the Internet but after i read this i wouldnt back labour at 4/11.it was express.co.uk, i have no idea how trustworthy it is Mr Snell voted to Remain in the EU referendum but has said that he will not “frustrate the triggering of Article 50” - the step that starts Brexit talks. Stoke-on-Trent voters are among some of the the most Eurosceptic in the UK, with nearly 70 per cent backing Brexit during the EU referendum.Mr Snell provoked outrage by describing Brexit as a “pile of s***” after the referendum. He has also apologised for a series of offensive tweets aimed at women on TV.


The Daily Express supports UKIP.

Report not allowed to bet February 23, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
I have banged on about how the cultural vote can influence a constituency with its family house postal vote control. But also their number.  It only takes a certain percentage to swing it to their own favoured candidate.  Of course it will take quite a time but they are well on course in certain towns and cities already. We only have to look at London.
If the turnout is that low then even a small population can swing it and we have already seen the libdum's complaining about certain aspects of this.
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
i could not recommend a single uk paper to give you an unbiased look at this dom888

all of our newspapers have their biases
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 7:14 PM GMT
Folks, from what I am hearing a value bet is....

Skybet 1st Labour, 2nd Conservative, 3rd UKIP  at 11/4.
Report InsiderTrader February 23, 2017 7:14 PM GMT
I agree Donny. The same goes for TV. Every media outlet is biased. You need to read them all and then do your own research because sometimes they all take the same establishment view.
Report dom888 February 23, 2017 7:53 PM GMT
is this the third time after brexit, us, big drift before the result and winning in the end
it would be a little bit pathetic
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 8:00 PM GMT
lib dem victory at richmond by election was a bigger drift and bigger surprise
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 8:00 PM GMT
although it was backed in late
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 8:06 PM GMT
waiting to get some more investment matched on nutall @5's ,great value !
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 8:12 PM GMT
matchedCool
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 8:22 PM GMT
What's value about UKIP no matter what price they get matched? No value at all as it's a loser.
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 8:25 PM GMT

Feb 23, 2017 -- 2:22PM, Meadow X1 wrote:


What's value about UKIP no matter what price they get matched? No value at all as it's a loser.


pfff whatever

Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 8:32 PM GMT
twice as much matched on stoke than copeland
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 8:35 PM GMT
Copeland could be another country as far as info goes!
Report InsiderTrader February 23, 2017 8:53 PM GMT
Its true. I remember back in the 90s being told who cares about value... just back winners.
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 8:54 PM GMT
no ****
well ukip bet is 50-50 , you either win or you dont Crazy
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 9:06 PM GMT

Feb 23, 2017 -- 2:54PM, iamhewho wrote:


no **** well ukip bet is 50-50 , you either win or you dont


I wish I was your bookie

Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 9:09 PM GMT

Feb 23, 2017 -- 3:06PM, Meadow X1 wrote:


Feb 23, 2017 --  8:54PM, iamhewho wrote:no **** well ukip bet is 50-50 , you either win or you dontI wish I was your bookie


was my sarcasm to suttle for you?

Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
subtle*
Report Meadow X1 February 23, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
Look, don't throw any more away on UKIP.  I tried my best to convince you of this the other day on here but you choose to carry on doing so.
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 9:13 PM GMT
yeah you did
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 9:15 PM GMT
you were'nt  very convincing
Report InsiderTrader February 23, 2017 9:44 PM GMT
The market is dead. Smaller than a little race on Finton beach.
Report donny osmond February 23, 2017 9:52 PM GMT
copeland is where the action is at , at the mo
Report xmoneyx February 23, 2017 9:58 PM GMT
2 mins till UKIP self combust
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 11:12 PM GMT
no numbers in yet is there? , whats the massive drfit due to ?
Report dom888 February 23, 2017 11:21 PM GMT
are they drunk
labour/labour double evens
labour to win copeland 2.6
it was 2 minutes ago lol
Report Des Pond February 23, 2017 11:23 PM GMT
Dimbleby said on QT that he had heard that Labour had teken the Seat. (I assume he was talking about Stoke)
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 11:28 PM GMT
no one has a clue counting just started , as if i was wasting time with odds of 2.9 ish , Plain
Report Des Pond February 23, 2017 11:30 PM GMT
Must be making assumptions base on exit polls.
Report iamhewho February 23, 2017 11:34 PM GMT
Bleak postal vote sampling for labour apparently
Report donny osmond February 24, 2017 12:18 AM GMT
turnout 38% , betfair havnt suspended, yet...
Report anxious February 24, 2017 12:26 AM GMT
Nutall has been Defeated that is the best possible result of the night , I doubt very much he will ever find a seat in parliament
Report wildmanfromborneo February 24, 2017 1:40 AM GMT
He's not beaten yet.

Anxious there's a juicy few Grand trying to lay Labour in Stoke,why not snap it up.
Report donny osmond February 24, 2017 1:42 AM GMT
theres £55 left for you wildman
Report wildmanfromborneo February 24, 2017 1:56 AM GMT
Are there any tallymen in England ?
Report donny osmond February 24, 2017 2:05 AM GMT
still £1.09 if you are quick
Report enpassant February 24, 2017 2:14 AM GMT
held despite brexit, Corbyn, Tory plots, 18% lower in the polls ! Now we have to watch squirming Tory and ukippers spouting it is bad for Labour !
Report wildmanfromborneo February 24, 2017 2:16 AM GMT
That's some poor show from UKIP,he barely beat the Conservative.

Hard to kow where UKIP go from here.
Hard to know where Paul Nuttall goes from here.

I say this with sadness as it seems to me UKIP cannot function without Nigel Farage.
Report donny osmond February 24, 2017 2:28 AM GMT
well done meadow !
Report enpassant February 24, 2017 2:40 AM GMT
72 it's 72 !!!!!!!!!!!!
Report enpassant February 24, 2017 2:42 AM GMT
"I'm Paul Nuttall of UKIP'S "           https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKEsyIuTrO8 fantastic Stewart Lee
Report Dotchinite February 24, 2017 7:14 AM GMT
Given the media hatchet job on Nuttall and a popular Govt increasing its vote share i dont think its quite the disaster it could have been for UKip.

Its a reflection of how dire a mess Labour is in that they can portray it as a victory to hold a seat in a by election whilst their vote share decreases.

Sure its a disappointment for UKIP but it cant be a surprise after the campaign that was run. I thought Labour would win much more easily.
Report dom888 February 24, 2017 7:57 AM GMT
of course you did
can you show me when you wrote this BEFORE the election
so you thought it would be much more than just 37/24
i am sure you have backed labour at evens for plenty
no you didnt?
in trump language its a landslide win when you have less votes than your opponent
so labour had 50 % more votes, it must be biggest super trebble landslide win
Report Captain Wurzel February 24, 2017 8:04 AM GMT
Come on Dotchinite - you are a generally a fair poster, the hatchet job on Nuttall was 100% self inflicted.
Report ZenMaster February 24, 2017 9:02 AM GMT
Nuttall is not the right character for the job unfortunately and UKIP need a change of administration> Farage got out at the right time.

Anyway well done to the winners> Meadow needn't have even broken into a sweat in the end.
Report Dotchinite February 24, 2017 9:10 AM GMT
dom888. Look at my post on this very thread saying I thought the Labour majority would increase on the 16th February.

Its there for all to see.

Dont understand why you think id make something like that up?
Report InsiderTrader February 24, 2017 9:16 AM GMT
Indeed. Credit to you and Meadow for calling this one correctly.
Report ZenMaster February 24, 2017 9:20 AM GMT
I should have carried on with my first post on this thread one

These by-elections create a low turn out, only 37% voted in the recent North Hykeham and Sleaford by-election.


Only 38.2% - Stoke.
Report ZenMaster February 24, 2017 9:21 AM GMT
I should have carried on with my first post on this thread page one.
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 9:34 AM GMT
Thanks everyone, it was an exciting night.  In Stoke, I had two types of bet, back Labour and lay UKIP, all around the evens mark so up £1100 there. The only bet I lost was £20 at 9/1 UKIP to poll less than 20% so that was down but no real damage.
Copeland was a different story! I had a few bets on Labour amounting to about £500 at 2/1 and over. I also had some good bets (£700) on the Conservatives at 1.8 which I was able to lay off at an average of 1.5. However, I was still left with a fairly big liability on Labour with no clear way to bail out.  Then the miracle happened!  On Question Time Dimbelby wrongly announced that Labour had held Copeland. The Betfair Labour market went nuts with everything above 2.0 being scooped up including my Labour lay at 2.32.  So damage on that front limited.  The best bit was that I estimated Labour and Conservative would poll roughly 80% of the votes (it was 81.6 %). Ladbrokes went 6/4 LibDems to score less than 10% (they got 7%) so I had £40 that and they also went 4/1 UKIP to get less than 10% (they got 7%) so I had £20 on that too. Overall I lost £150 on Copeland but a good night overall.
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 10:07 AM GMT
Sorry, I also had a tenner on lab, Con, UKIp Stoke tricast at 11/4 with Skybet which was down (just!).
Report Dotchinite February 24, 2017 10:07 AM GMT
Well done Meadow. You had clearly done your homework.
Report berti February 24, 2017 10:52 AM GMT
I would like to know what percentage of the postal votes were labour Angry
Report anxious February 24, 2017 10:56 AM GMT
Yes well done meadow , one more thing about the result in Stoke a few weeks ago ukip were shouting that this was the Brexit capital of England and that this where ukip would attack Labour in its working class heartlands, no such thing happened even with their leader standing they were defeated , never in a million years will a Johnny come lately mob replace the Labour Party as the only true alternative to the true enemy of the working class in One Nation Theresa and her ilk.
Report xmoneyx February 24, 2017 11:08 AM GMT
dimbleby meant stoke ExcitedSillyWhoopsWink

w/d meadow
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 12:05 PM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 4:52AM, berti wrote:


I would like to know what percentage of the postal votes were labour


Postal vote breakdown was...

Labour 31%
Conservative 29%
UKIP 29%

on the samples that were published by the returning officer.

Report berti February 24, 2017 12:20 PM GMT
Thanks Meadow, expected Labour percentage to be bigger than that, so no complaints from me just disappointment that the so called forgotten people keep the same old problems. Tories running down the NHS and Labour welcoming as many foreigners as is possible.
Report InsiderTrader February 24, 2017 12:27 PM GMT
Those are extraordinary results. What was the sample size? When will the full figures be out?
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 12:35 PM GMT
I am not certain exactly how it works but I understand the postal votes number are counted, then there is a verification process that basically checks that what it says on the envelope matches the voting slip inside.  Next a sample is taken (don't know size) to give a guide as to the percentage breakdown then the postal votes are effectively mixed in with the ordinary ones from the polling stations for final counting.
I believe if you contact the council responsible for the count they can give a more detailed breakdown upon request.
Report InsiderTrader February 24, 2017 12:40 PM GMT
Thanks for the info. Snell won by so many votes it is not like the postal votes made a difference.
Report jed.davison February 24, 2017 12:46 PM GMT
Well done Meadow, called it right from the start. Hats off, hope you made a few quid.
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 12:53 PM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 6:46AM, jed.davison wrote:


Well done Meadow, called it right from the start. Hats off, hope you made a few quid.


Thanks jed, dosh stuff from last night up the thread a wee bit.

Report jed.davison February 24, 2017 1:02 PM GMT
Although I went off them as soon as Nuttall was declared, I don't think it would have made much difference if any.
Report wildmanfromborneo February 24, 2017 1:11 PM GMT
Neither by election were close yet both winning candidates could be backed just a few minutes before declaration.

In Copeland the betting was sevens on when it was suspended as the returns were just being announced.
Report treetop February 24, 2017 3:45 PM GMT
Good calls meadow, throughout you explained your reasoning and deserved to show a profit. We may differ at times but credit where credit is due.
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 5:43 PM GMT
thanks treetop, much appreciated.
Report Des Pond February 24, 2017 5:51 PM GMT

Feb 24, 2017 -- 5:08AM, xmoneyx wrote:


dimbleby meant stoke w/d meadow


On Question Time Dimbelby wrongly announced that Labour had held Copeland.

Did he actually say "Copeland"? I wasn't listening all that closely. Fortunately for me, I automatically assumed that he meant Stoke, as that's where the debate was broadcast from.

Dimbleby said on QT that he had heard that Labour had teken the Seat. (I assume he was talking about Stoke)

Could this have been a factor in the price for Stoke holding up for quite a long time, after it became clear that labour were very confident? If he did say Copeland, intead of Stoke, maybe some punters will have assumed wrongly, that the outcome was still more uncertain than it really was!

Report Des Pond February 24, 2017 5:51 PM GMT
well done, Meadow, btw. Happy
Report Meadow X1 February 24, 2017 5:58 PM GMT
https://order-order.com/2017/02/24/dimbleby-calls-copeland-wrong/

Hope this helps.
Report Des Pond February 24, 2017 6:12 PM GMT
ShockedLaugh Good job I wasn't listening very closely, I assumed he meant Stoke. LOL. I wonder if this was the reason for the confusion in the Copeland market: I noticed that it suspended when some punters were still laying at as high as 1.14. Normally, you would exect the the price to be down to 1.03/1.04, at least, at the moment of suspension.
Report Injera February 25, 2017 4:42 PM GMT
Nice work Meadow! You did your research and it paid off.

I came out of Stoke with a small loss. Backed UKIP when the Labour remain candidate was announced but took the hit out when the wheels started to come off their campaign.

Didn't touch Copeland which I regret. On C4 news 2 weeks ago Crick was chasing (literally) the Labour candidate for an interview. She scurried away from him, not wanting to address the nuclear issue. Pretty massive clue there! Unattractive odds though..
Report Meadow X1 February 25, 2017 5:30 PM GMT
Thanks Injera.  Yes, saw that Crick clip and it didn't look good but the odds I felt were so good on the Labour candidate in what many folks (me included) considered a very close two horse race that I stuck with it.
Report ufcdan February 25, 2017 6:51 PM GMT
I backed Labour for both seats hoping to put the mockers on them........oh well one out of two ain't bad !
Report CJ70 February 28, 2017 11:53 AM GMT
Haven't done the work to look into the postal voting percentages, but I'd be very surprised if it was a three-way tie on postal votes.

On the ground I have people saying that Lab were comfortably third on the day, granted that is anecdotal and probably in areas that don't suit Labour. If postal votes were as reported above, Lab must have been piling votes up in certain areas.

What amazes me here is the LD and Con prices, Con did far better than expected but were never in the race. Odds on both parties were bizarre from start to finish and anybody trading the prices actively would have stocked up big green books. The Con candidate can probably look forward to getting a push for a more winnable seat in 2020.
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