Since Brexit vote

Where have the *experts* gone?
What happened to the *emergency budget*?

UB and his gullibles, why did they believe the whole charade?

It's a marathon not a sprint UB.

UB's still in a LOT of pain I see.

Are ye gals really feeling better off, years before ye actually get what ye wanted?

Here in the working class, things ain't any better for us.

When will the trigger be pulled , do ye think?

It looks like davis and johnson and fox don't get on.

Is nige back yet?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37016123

Warmer weather helped Britain's retailers sell more in July than during the same period last year, defying predictions of a post-Brexit slump.

Total sales increased by 1.9%, according to the British Retail Consortium and KPMG's latest survey.

A separate report, by Barclaycard, found spending in restaurants, pubs and cinemas continued to grow strongly in the month following the vote.

Since the referendum, Central Banks across the world have poured money into their economies to try to avert a global recession. As a result, stock markets have crept up a smidgeon since June 23: S & P 500 by 3%; the DAX by 2.4%; the FTSE 250 by 3.0%. All fine so far.

However, over the same period, sterling has fallen by 11.4% and 12.1% against the Euro and USD. So – in dollar terms – our markets have underperformed by 12% compared with the US and 11% against Germany.

The other side of this stimulus is that interest rates have plummeted. Banks are now charging customers to deposit money (RBS announced this today). Also – because of the lower interest rates - pension fund deficits for major UK companies have more than doubled in the last year – government is struggling to find ways to save businesses from having to recognise this on the basis that things may work out ok in the end.

The fall in sterling means that fuel prices, foreign holidays, and imported goods are all much more expensive at a wholesale level and this will flow through steadily over time  (RPI was up 1.9% this month).

The full effect of Brexit will not be seen until the terms of withdrawal are known. This may be some time because government is currently in chaos with Liam Fox, in particular, simultaneously demonstrating both his pompous ambition and ignorance. In the meantime, foreign direct investment will dry up unless sterling falls further, making assets too cheap to miss. Banks will steadily (and quietly to avoid adverse public reaction) set up bases in Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin to move operations there if/when we lose the passporting rights we currently enjoy. The few remaining major manufacturers will hold off on big capital investments. The small ones they can’t avoid making (like GSK’s recent announcement of £275 million) will be puffed by both the politicians and the companies as confidence in the economy, even though they are miniscule compared with the overall level we have benefitted from in the past.

Some industries will do well. My own business will (because we benefit from a weak pound and provide services to small-scale exporters for whom life is about to become much more complicated). So will tourism, leisure, and exporters of some goods and services (whose costs are in sterling and income in foreign currencies).

In the meantime, you guys will continue to clutch at every piece of short-term good news to convince yourselves that you are better off. I genuinely hope you are right, but I fear not.

Property market peaked last November but we have only been able to assess and accept that 6/8 months down the line. The lack of properties to sell is still keeping prices at a level although we have seen drops in the lead up to Brexit and beyond, although only 1-2% per month. The BTL changes have had a very significant sea change since last November on their announcements.

Disregard the media headlines as they have focused on the higher end of the London market and also agents press releases like to concentrate on the upwards increase % over the last 12 months. That makes a good headline but it is coming for an estate agent. The top end has been seeing discounts now for the last 18 months at least. Certainly though not the doom and gloom scenarios we were sold back before the vote - yet.

The London market has also probably been 25% over valued over the last 3/4 years so a correction is needed. However, the media and commentators sympathetic to Remain will continue to use Brexit as an excuse for any downward figures.

This uncertainty is a good time for some though to invest wisely. Just need to locate the right land owner/vendor with a squeaky bum.

No it wasn't down because of the threat of Brexit UB, everybody fully expected the vote to be for us to stay in.

The pound was down on the expectation of us staying in and not the threat of us coming out.

Another boost since Brexit. Government borrowing was down in the wake of the out vote.

once again the news is better than expected? indeed until article 50 is triggerd we will not see were we stand ..but as this period of uncertainty has shown..the uk will be fine either way..i belive in 2-5years this country will be better off than if we had stayed in..but even if we are not it wont be a disaster? we have had to put up with tory incompetence and austerity and we came threw?..this great country adapts so do its people..im only worried because its not comming fast enough.
rydal
just because we have 1-2 bad ministers like fox does not mean the overall message and route is wrong?the economics have taken over the arguments as i expected..but people also voted on other issues and are prepard to lose out finacially (if that happens in the short term) to play the long game..the eu is a basket case ..that has not had a audit in 12 years ..that meets in secret ..and ignores democracy from countrys that it has indebted...like the rest of my 17.4 m countrymen...were ready and able..all we ask is for competent politicians to lead..

The pound was down on the expectation of us staying in and not the threat of us coming out.

Only the BTL business protects this idiot from penury.

sean rua did you tell your children "you are working class,this is your lot?"

A Polish lad was attempting to tell me yesterday Farage told lies on his red bus
I told him Farage's bus was purple.

Then he told me, Farage told other lies, i asked him to name one.
He said the one were the UK pays more in than it gets out.

I had to google the truth for him.
He left scratching his nugget.

Now UK manufacturing output up in biggest rebound in 25 years

THere were no racist attacks before BREXIT imo

We bow to the British power

FTSE 250 reached highest level every today

When will income tax go up by 3p in the pound ?

However, the lakes have dried up and my camels are barren. Barbarian hordes are sweeping in from the east and approaching the gates of Rome.  The Rubicon has been crossed.  Damn those Brexiteers.

Guardian yesterday:

The International Monetary Fund certainly knows what it is like to make a mistake. In the run-up to the EU referendum, the IMF made a series of interventions warning voters of the dire consequences that would follow a vote to leave.

At first, the IMF stuck to long-term forecasts, saying investment and trade would eventually be weaker if the UK divorced from the other 27 members of the EU. But as the referendum neared and the vote was on a knife-edge, the warnings became more lurid. The UK would immediately start sliding into recession. House prices would crumble. Shares would crash.

So what do you do if your forecasts turn out to be a little wide of the mark? Either you put your hands up and admit you were wrong. Or you brazen it out. You say that it is too early to say. You say that eventually you will come right.

No prizes for guessing which option the IMF has taken. Its half-yearly world economic outlook (WEO) report says the UK will do fine in 2016 but is going to find the going a lot tougher in 2017.