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Hardly a mention on the bbc or itv news, they seem desperate to put Gove up against Teresa May. The market says different. Leadsom is still a decent bet at 4.6 as I think the momentum will inevitably begin to grow.
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Leadsom is the only realistic choice. Crabb and May supported remain and the country having voted out will not support them, Gove can't be trusted and Fox hasn't the support. #NoWayMay
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Leadsom was fantastic during the referendum
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I think Leadsom is a great price at anything above 2/1.
I can't believe they would put up 2 remain candidates, so that should rule out Crabb. Gove is very popular with grassroots, but not with the the wider public, so could be a liability in a head to head with May, and is also seen as having stabbed BoJo in a very undignified manner, so is likely to be punished. Leadsom is also likely to pick up most of the BoJo support. Fox seems unrealistic, but 95 is a fair price. That leaves a likely head to head between May and Leadsom to be voted on by the wider party. They might think May is the safest pair of hands and give it to her - after all, Leadsom has never held a cabinet position, but most grassroots polling, particularly on the eurosceptic side suggests Leadsom would beat May in a head to head. |
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I think Leadsom is a great price at anything above 2/1.
I can't believe they would put up 2 remain candidates, so that should rule out Crabb. Gove is very popular with grassroots, but not with the the wider public, so could be a liability in a head to head with May, and is also seen as having stabbed BoJo in a very undignified manner, so is likely to be punished. Leadsom is also likely to pick up most of the BoJo support. Fox seems unrealistic, but 95 is a fair price. That leaves a likely head to head between May and Leadsom to be voted on by the wider party. They might think May is the safest pair of hands and give it to her - after all, Leadsom has never held a cabinet position, but most grassroots polling, particularly on the eurosceptic side suggests Leadsom would beat May in a head to head. |
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I'd be disappointed if May gets it. She did a Gerald Ratner with her "nasty party" comment, was probably an outer but chose to do an even less that Jeremy Corbyn campaign to remain. Didn't "Call me Dave" come from behind to pip David Davis.
Remember the MPs are remainers overall but I'd guess the membership is not. Tactically could the remain MPs ensure that Leadsom doesn't make it to the last two? |
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Tactically they could put forward May and Crabb, but it would be hugely divisive to not give the grassroots a chance to vote for a leaver.
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Yes they could put up May and Crabb, however the Tory party must be aware of the Leave vote of which a large proportion would be their own supporters. They would be playing a dangerous game if there wasn't a leave supporting MP in the last two and they could pay for that at the next general election.
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Biggest threat to Leadsom now seems to be the calls for a single candidate to take the role in a bloodless transition. Quite a few pro-EU MPs suggesting the other candidates should withdraw if May has a big majority in round 1. Obviously they realise after every leave elimination Leadsom will pick up support, so will be the momentum candidate going into a final vote.
Hope Leadsom stays strong - I assume she will be offered the cabinet position of her choosing if she gets behind May, but it would be a very bad choice. |
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It will be shocking if May is crowned without a vote - it seems to me that many MPs, in spite of Leave winning, simply want to ignore the referendum
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Would be ridiculous if Leadsom got it purely because she was on the quit side. The PM job now is probably the biggest it's been since WWII and people are proposing giving it to someone with no cabinet experience whatsoever purely because she wanted out.
The referendum's been and gone. The next PM has to confirm our departure and then do the best possible job of making sure we don't get stiffed. I'd actually say there's an advantage of having a remainer who would be seen as a friendlier face in negotiations and not liable to come out with Nige-style empty rhetoric. |
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Another eminently sensible post by Pineapple
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The referendum was only advisory.
It has no legal binding. Despite what some say, any decision has to be approved by Westminster. That said, a large majority of MPs were in favour of Remain, yet they voted for the referendum. Not sure how they'd vote now. For a start, are all the nu-labor dudes who jacked their roles in the shadow cabinet still coining their huge MPs salaries, or, are they standing down on principle? Dunno how how it will work. Whatever, it looks like DODGY, johnson, and gove are all headed for a step backwards for the time being. Leadsom is the likely winner for the brexiteers, imo. Who knows with this devious lot? SNIDY SNEAKY MICK may still pull it off, though I doubt it. |
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And smith is trying to come back in behind leadsom.
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The preferable winner should be someone who wanted a better deal with the EU than the one we've turned our backs on.
Someone not afraid to stare them in the eye and say ''no - that's not good enough.'' A remain campaigner might have been satisfied with the deal we had already had. Don't forget that Cameron who would have been in a that position resigned. For that reason I prefer someone who was in favour of coming out. |
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Just don't see how it can't be refused. Just isn't going to happen. Only chance is if there's a snap election and a major party states categorically that it won't go through with it and wins. Or there's a bit of a major meltdown (much bigger than last week).
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If Labour said they won't do the business on Article 50, that could be an option.
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Till China and India recover, the metal prices will stay flat and the economy here will remain in recession.
I note many big/expensive houses going on the market out in the shires; dunno what's afoot, but they don't seem to be moving. This started a week or so before the ref. This sort of people usually have the latest good info. What we'd need to know is a) their motive b) where are they going? The latter is the interesting prob. I see no way out, really.  , but I'm on the perophery and do not have the full picture. |
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periphery.
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A lot of rubbish been spouted on this thread.The reality is that the FTSE is at its highest level 6577 since September last year and
lets be clear Theresa May is going to win the Conservative leadership election. |
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1.44 available if you are so sure.
It will be a backwards step for the party if they pick her. She was out of touch with the nation on her choice in the referendum and a ditherer not to have the conviction to campaign for it. The PM of this country needs to be someone with a vision and a clear plan. Theresa May has no plan and it looks like the weakest of the Brexit cabinet ministers (Chris Grayling) will be in charge of her Brexit department. |
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Did I hear May correctly on article 50? Did she say it won't be triggered by the end of year, only when the negotiations are right.
The twelveth of Never? |
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Posy seems confident.
Not sure everything is signed and sealed yet. One thing I still feel confident about is that the UK will still be in the EU by the time of the next General Election. I don't think there is a legal obligation to follow the slender majority ( 3.8%) of the referendum. Some may feel there is a moral obligation, but regardless of what anybody tells us, GB is still ruled by WESTMINSTER. Parliament ( ie MPs) will have to vote for triggering this Article 50 thing, just to get the wheels turning. And, will well-paid "experts" be beholden to 37% of eligible referendum voters? "17.4m from 46.5m)? Personally, I doubt |
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'I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving
So what changed in 3 years, those 'tectonic plates' have hardly budged have they? |
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The whole point of the referendum was GB is no longer ruled by Westminster.
The bankers,big business and the no border merchants will try and ignore the will of the people. The unelected bureaucrats in Europe will try and ignore the will of the people. Sean Rua and other anarchists will try and ignore the will of the people. Nothing new there just hope they won't succeed |
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Lets see your tax-returns, Andrea.
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She's a city slicker, biscuit.
Far more experienced than, say, nige. Her books will be squeaky clean. Both she and nige will continue to clean up. |
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Your forecasts are about as accurate as my lottery tickets.
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 She'll ride out any storm, bicuit. Think of all the westminster paedos who got away with things. The A team always rule.  |
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My biggest reservation about Ms. Leadsom is the "yes minister" problem. Is 5 years in Westminster enough time to learn about the devious ways of the Civil Service?
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Not sure, sage.
When my daughter went out with a politician, he worked in Whitehall. Reckoned 'twas all a game and a load of bollix. That stuff they get from Ebury Road ( is it the stats office?) is way out of date and not particularly accurate. Doesn't seem to matter much. Folk just muddle on. For instance, I was banned from working on the channel tunnel, but, I very much doubt if the project ever gets paid for. At the same time, lads I had pushing a barrow for me for £50 quid a shift were able to go onto £400 + a shift down there and later in Hong Kong. Point is these things go through and a few make big bread. The olympics was the same, imo. Folks think a Westways is the answer to everything.  |
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Sorry, west fields.
Trying to dodge the censor. |
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I'd love to know the name of the politician who went out with Sean Ruas daughter.
Has to be hard left type always whining about diversity and trying to show it by taking out a hotch potch of different nationalities and religions. |
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Tsk tsk wildman. That's beyond the pale.
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That's the biggest lie you've ever told on here.
Your tales of working all over the world,building the pyramids in Egypt and other such will exaggerations were more believable. Why not go the whole hog and tell us that when the Leave campaigning toff turned up in Dale Farm you sent him on his way saying we will have no Brit in our family. |
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Stands no chance of winning but her price will drop below 4s when Fox & Crabb are eliminated this week.
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liked her speech and answer session on news just now - seems very human unlike her colleagues - very mumsy.
Theresa just looks scary - more punishment by strong hands. |
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