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Polls not been open for half the time yet. Not looking good for UKIP, could be their death knell.
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quite the reverse a leave vote is the death knell
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UKIP will be the biggest beneficiaries from this referendum no matter which way it goes.
As mental as this sounds the constitution is a far more important issue to the working class in the UK than most of the other issues the political parties bicker over. To me thats mental but its reality. The constitution is the only issue that genuinely has clearly defined lines between parties, nobody in Scotland gives a sh1t about the SNP's record on education, the health service, spending etc in the same way they dont care about how the Tories in Scotland would tackle the issues, they only care that one side is seperatist and another is unionist. Both the Tories and Labour will suffer post referendum, the 40%+ of people who will vote to Leave are already feeling betrayed by the traditional parties. In the long run, the current incumbents within the Blue and Red team dont care, they will have completed their job by tomorrow morning of upholding the interests of multinational corporations, the mess left behind will not be theirs to clean up. |
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I think it will be quite the opposite.
There are many voters out there who used to vote for the established parties but seeing how they sided with the establishment will not vote for them again. That could lead to a surge in UKIP - although I really, really hope a new party emerges that takes the big issues in this referendum on board and deals with them (zero hours contracts, benefits supporting big business paying minimum wage, and of course immigration, etc). They could be very successful given the apathy/hatred towards the other parties. How anybody in Scotland could ever vote for Mrs. Krankie again after she got so far up Cameron she could see his tonsils is beyond me. |
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Not a fan of UKIP but imo sadly it will have the reverse effect.
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55-60 for remain gone fav. Dont get it.
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when OUT hits three figures on here later there will still be people saying they don't understand it.
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100k available at 1.13 on here if you want it
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I know the polls got it wring last may in GE but did the markets have it so badly wrong , it seems astonishing that last night remain were about 2-7 and now 1-10 I keep hearing people talking about hedge funds polls they must be showing a big swing to remain
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Most people have not even voted yet
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UKIP
The clue is in the name. Country votes NOT to be Independent from the EU what is left for them to canvass on? Farage has said in the past his only interest is getting UK out of the EU. |
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I get that there is confidence in the remain vote, i dont get why that confidence has changed so much this morning
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Baron Rothschild employed a relay team of horsemen to confirm the result of the Battle of Waterloo in 1805, so he knew the result 3 days before the Government.
He cleaned up enough money on the Stock Exchange to purchase Aylesbury.  |
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1815
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Hows anyone gonna know this result though. Even ignoring that loads havent voted yet, the black boxes are just sitting there on the table uncounted.
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anxious
23 Jun 16 12:49 Joined: 14 May 15 | Topic/replies: 6,752 | Blogger: anxious's blog I know the polls got it wring last may in GE but did the markets have it so badly wrong , it seems astonishing that last night remain were about 2-7 and now 1-10 I keep hearing people talking about hedge funds polls they must be showing a big swing to remain ....... I think the Tories getting a majority was around 10 just before the exit poll at the GE. This decision is much more important though so maybe these funds have invested a lot more to get these exit polls right. The pound v dollar is around the same rate as it was at 10:30 but odds on here continue to come in. |
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I would piss myself if the betting and money traders are following each other
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The EU is normally about 20th on peoples minds.
UKIP will revert to their 1 million votes at the next GE in 2020. Where did those 1 million BNP votes go? |
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Its ironic that it was the markets that got this right all along.
When the Leave side was surging the markets still had Remain as firm favourites. Its funny because this referendum was about markets and business versus your ability to govern yourselves and the market money men have won. So now a nation that brought democracy to half the world,who once ruled half the world lies prostrate in defeat unable to govern yourselves. Its like a once fine old house falling into disrepair and not even allowed decide who can come in. Sadly its squatters that are moving in. |
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Ok, so markets open this morning almost reaching 1.7% up. It's now only 1% up. yet the odds have come down loads in that time. Betting market don't believe
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Swing back to leave 1.2 now.
The 'never want to workers' and 'benefit streeters' have just got up and voted before Jeremy is on. |
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No they were queuing outside my polling station just after the school run.
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My average is 5.62 & 1.22 for a coupla hunna.
Sitting green now but looking for at least double my steak back. |
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7.4 vs 1.16 ... trader's paradise
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Betfarians 'never lose'
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Early doors, erry, early doors
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Come one. FTSE now only 0.30% up since this moring. Dropped 1.5% today since 10am
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If its a remain vote it will be particularly bad news for labour, particularly while JC is in charge.
Those votes will help UKIP win a decent number of seats at the next GE |
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What would be the point of UKIP at the next GE if the country has voted to stay in Europe?
There manifestos are not about governing a country but about exiting the EU and their view of the future outside the EU. They are not the new new Labour party. |
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Once voters realise it is pointless voting UKIP they will stop. 4 million votes equals one MP.
Do people forget Labour increased its vote share in England at the last GE? |
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There manifestos are not about governing a country but about exiting the EU and their view of the future outside the EU.
you will find that is not correct, the vast majority of our policies in the 2015 manifesto concerned soley UK internal affairs. |
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You think the geneie will go back in the bottle after at least 45% of those who voted want BREXIT, particularly after the behaviour of some on the remain side starting with the PM and Gideon. UKIP is the only mainstream party which represents those who want BREXIT from this failing political project, which millions across Europe are also starting to realise.
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here is a link to the manifest ET for your perusal
. https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/1103/attachments/original/1429295050/UKIPManifesto2015.pdf?1429295050 |
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Fully costed promises costed by no one else but UKIP doesn't make a manifesto.
I don't blame them. Knowing they had no prospect of more than a handful of MPs, there was nothing to lose. |
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I think you will find ours was the only fully costed manifesto as verified by the Centre for Economic and Business Research
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not much in this index about exiting the EU or life outside it
INTRODUCTION TO OUR MANIFESTO 5 ECONOMY 6 IMMIGRATION 10 THE NHS 14 SOCIAL CARE 18 PENSIONS 20 WELFARE AND DISABILITY 22 CHILDCARE AND THE FAMILY 24 EDUCATION 28 HOUSING AND THE ENVIRONMENT 32 TRANSPORT 36 ENERGY 38 EMPLOYMENT 40 SMALL BUSINESS 42 FARMING AND THE COUNTRYSIDE 46 FISHING 48 HERITAGE AND TOURISM 50 CRIME AND JUSTICE 52 POLITICAL REFORM 56 LOCAL GOVERNMENT 58 BRITISH CULTURE 60 TRADE 62 DEFENCE 64 HONOURING THE MILITARY COVENANT 66 FOREIGN AFFAIRS 67 OVERSEAS AID 68 BREXIT 70 FINANCE |
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I'm sure there were people who thought the SNP would lose votes after the failed independence referendum in Scotland, the vote had the opposite effect, within a week of the vote the SNP was the third largest party in the UK by membership numbers (116,000 v labour 380,000 and conservative 134,000) and at the last Scottish Elections, 51.3% of people voted for pro-independance parties.
Dont be shocked if by the end of the month UKIP gains hundreds of thousands of members. |
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False promises costed on leaving the EU and the savings it would supposedly make.
CEBR asked to check these costings, but only some. Having to accept net figure of 9 billion cost to UK of EU membership instead one of 22 billion used to 'cost' the manifesto meant a big hole to begin with. Plenty of other examples, Farage ridiculed by A Niell. You can produce a pamphlet that says and promises anything if you have no prospect of winning. I repeat not a manifesto to govern, everything dependent on leaving the EU something not possible in April 2015 |