The move for leave has started? 4.2 to 3.55

saw this in scotland in 2014.  like a mug i bet on Yes the night before at 7/2, woke up to see No was 1/8 the day of the vote

im expecting 55-45 for Remain

So you think remain will be under 54.5 or over ?

Remain now 1-5 1-6 right across the board

Price shortened in just last couple of hours

Been big move for remain 55-60 recently so going on that something like 54-46 is looking right. Just had my £2 @80 matched for 65-70 (which won't happen!) so volatility is there.

I predict 52-54% remain win, unfortunately.
If the polls suggest it's neck and neck (well almost?), why are the odds suggesting a landslide for remain?
Is there something we don't know, or am I being cynical in thinking the postal vote is already known (result wise)
and that it's all over bar the shouting?

I thought that too on 365 they have over and under perecentage for renain at 54.5 per cent ,4/5 under 10/11 over, only main result they 1-8 remain 5s leave , surely they should go higher than 54.5 if they are so certain of result

45-45 poll means 10% undecided.  conventional analysis gives more of the 10% to ultimately vote Remain.  They've been saying all along that Leave needs a lead in a poll to actually win.  Maybe that's whY?

1.16 on here now. Is it because they believe high turnout will favour remain? In 1975 turnout was 64% with a massive 67% wanting to remain.

yes - low turnout has been seen as a risk to Remain. 

reporting that it's been neck and neck in the polls probably a mobilising factor in the well off southern heartlands. It's not over yet though.

I love the high turnout bets.  Cant understand the prices given Scottish referendum was 84% turnout.

Clearly basing things on General election data (66%) but still.

johnizere
23 Jun 16 10:59
I predict 52-54% remain win, unfortunately.
If the polls suggest it's neck and neck (well almost?), why are the odds suggesting a landslide for remain?
Is there something we don't know, or am I being cynical in thinking the postal vote is already known (result wise)
and that it's all over bar the shouting?


the cynic in me says that even if more people did for to Leave, it would never show up in the results, with all the powers of the day in finance, the media and government all colaborating on the Remain side youd have to be naive to think vote rigging is impossible.  the people regulating the collection and storage of postal votes aswell as those moving votes from polling station are not immune from corruption.

public opinion is generally on the Leave side, very few of those who are voting Remain give a sh1t about the EU but still consensus and apathy generally dictate how elections pan out.  theres MPs who were voted for with majorities in the thousands who spent 100k+ on expenses like egyptian silk curtains and importing leather chaise longue sofas from Paris.

one of the primary arguements when we voted on a proportional representation system was 'why should we make the voting system too complicated, people will get confused' and of course the great brittish public turned out and voted 2/1 in agreement that we're too thick to figure out PR.

Leave drifting like a barge to 6/1 ... have lumped on accordingly

£ has gone to $1.49 for the first time today. Been solid all morning.

FTSE 100 moving between 1.3% and 1.8% up on the day.

1-9 remain 11-2 leave , 365 looks like its a done deal

am I missing something? woke up to 1.16 remain. bookies already think remain has won?

Jun 23, 2016 -- 5:24AM, MatchedBets wrote:

am I missing something? woke up to 1.16 remain. bookies already think remain has won?

Final poll shows Remain ahead by 4.

Market is moving on that.

Is public opinion really on the leave side, I guess we will see, but it's my feeling that leave side generally just speak louder and are more outspoken.

Of the about 50 people I know voting, only 1 is voting leave. But hardly any of them will have said anything voicing their opinion anywhere.

there are exit polls paid for by big institutional investors/hedge funds.  Hence the city prices as the primary info from which the books are setting prices.

Market moved to 1.3 on the final poll. Now 1.16.

it's still very close.  6/1 is not exactly a massive long shot; they still don't really know, they just think they do.

There is no official exit poll on this. The guy who did the election one said it would be impossible to do it accurately as they have no historical data to go on.

these chocs are not based on the final polls - these are on exit polls.

exit polls are privately commissioned

To me it seems a case that inside the pro leave groups, leave still only gets like 65:35% of support, but inside the pro remain groups it's like 95:5%.

very easy to do an accurate exit poll - you don't need any historical data.  you stand outside asking how people voted.  That's it.

so these moves this morning are the square mile secret polls then ?

it's not a secret.  there are exit polls being conducted and paid for by the city.  it's people asking how did you vote? outside polling booths.

there was a good article in the economist a couple of weeks ago about how these things are commissioned by the very big money institutes who are speculating on the pound.  the sooner they can know, the better.  obviously.

Jun 23, 2016 -- 5:29AM, anxious wrote:

so these moves this morning are the square mile secret polls then ?

No. It's impossible to produce accurate figures throughout the day as different groups will vote at different times.

bigpoppapump   

23 Jun 16 11:29 
Joined:  16 Dec 02      | Topic/replies: 3,530  | Blogger: bigpoppapump's blog   



very easy to do an accurate exit poll - you don't need any historical data.  you stand outside asking how people voted.  That's it.

...

There are thousands of polling stations. How on earth would you evaluate the results on the referendum? You would normally do it on swings at that station but there is no comparative data here.

Not saying its not being done as pound up 1.6%. Just question how accurate it can be.

this ref is about first one to 50% plus a vote, right?  Nationwide.  It's not a series of 650 races.

it's not necessary to compare with the past (as in a gen election where you need certain swings in order to know where seats will change hands).  here, you just need to know which side is getting more votes.

agree it's not accurate - it's a sample with a margin for error - but it's clearly felt to be a valid exercise (clever people are prepared to pay for the data).

Ok. But how do you know where to sample?

if it were me I would choose just 3 polling booths in Grimsby.

how would you choose yours?

On this forum!

Seriously we are not allowed to conduct polls and publish the results before the end of voting.

Interesting article here on exit polling...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-exit-poll-who-has-won-remain-leave-brexit-live-updates-a7094886.html

Exit polls are no different to ordinary polls - you ask a few people then extrapolate. All polls are similarly open to error (either way). What they will do is estimate the expected make-up of a polling station depending on location, then ask a few hundred people how they voted. That method has many flaws, but is probably the best available.

The £/$ is up, but the $ is also down against other currencies so that will make it look worse than it is. It looks to me like the currency markets hae priced in a Remain win and are carrying on as normal. The only indicator to watch for is a sudden drop.

Of the about 50 people I know voting, only 1 is voting leave. But hardly any of them will have said anything voicing their opinion anywhere.
The sad fact of this statement is that the majority of people I know voting Remain don't really know why they are voting that way and when pressed on the issues have very little appreciation of what it is they are voting for. All they know is that they don't like Farage and don't want Boris as PM. It saddens me greatly that there are people in this country - and there are loads - who are too stupid or lazy to look at the issues and think for themselves (btw I'm not getting at Remainers who have made their decision 'correctly').

Seriously we are not allowed to conduct polls and publish the results before the end of voting.

if you're a $100b hedge fund you tend to be able to play fast and loose with these things.  Exit polls are being conducted - they think it's remain - that's why you're seeing what you're seeing.  It's not over yet though.  Long time until polls close.

n88uk
23 Jun 16 11:24
Is public opinion really on the leave side, I guess we will see, but it's my feeling that leave side generally just speak louder and are more outspoken.

public opinion and how the public votes are surprisingly at odds with each other.  thats not just me basing it on anecodtal evidence of asking a bloke in the pub, pollsters all year round collect data on questions like 'do you trust david cameron' or 'should tuition fees be abolished' and even though the opinion polls are against the government of the day, people still turn out and vote for them.

throughout this campaign pollsters have asked questions like 'do you think the uk is in control of immigration?' with a massive % of people saying no or 'should an eu court over-rule a uk court', again with most people by a big margin saying no.  ask the same people are they voting to leave the eu on june 23rd and somehow it becomes 50-50 as people generally go with the status quo.


in scotland something like 75% of 10,000 in edinburgh and the east of all places said scotland should have full fiscal autonomy with regards to spending and taxation, yet the city was heavily in favour of voting No.

If ever there was motivation to vote LEAVE

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CloUHyjXIAEjXWV.jpg

1.12 now on here.

Somebody just backed Remain with £125k at around 1.13/1.15

it sent OUT to 9/1 for a very short time.

I expect its a combination of those private exit polls and the larger than expected turnout (they can easily extrapolate that).

1-10 remain now 365

Jun 23, 2016 -- 5:47AM, bigpoppapump wrote:

Seriously we are not allowed to conduct polls and publish the results before the end of voting.if you're a $100b hedge fund you tend to be able to play fast and loose with these things.  Exit polls are being conducted - they think it's remain - that's why you're seeing what you're seeing.  It's not over yet though.  Long time until polls close.

This makes no sense. You can't produce any sort of accurate poll this early.

You can say that X is getting more than Y, but that may reverse later in the day.

yes, it makes perfect sense.  polls are being conducted and they think it's remain.

your comment - that things may reverse later, is also perfectly sensible.

there's nothing controversial about the idea that exit polls can give an indication and my comment that they think it's Remain doesn't seem at odds with what we're watching (choose your indicator: betfair price, pound v dollar, FTSE 100) in the markets.  I say they THINK it's remain, I don't say they KNOW it's remain.

hope this clears it up for you.

The price has lengthened just a tad in the last few minutes and the £ has fallen - all moves are very slight, but that says to me that the latest data has just been received, and models adjusted accordingly.

The polls wouldnt be at odds with the betfair price, pound v dollar, ftse though would they?

Shirley theyre all based on the polls as nobodys started counting the ones in the boxes yet

Jun 23, 2016 -- 7:12AM, bigpoppapump wrote:

yes, it makes perfect sense.  polls are being conducted and they think it's remain.your comment - that things may reverse later, is also perfectly sensible.there's nothing controversial about the idea that exit polls can give an indication and my comment that they think it's Remain doesn't seem at odds with what we're watching (choose your indicator: betfair price, pound v dollar, FTSE 100) in the markets.  I say they THINK it's remain, I don't say they KNOW it's remain. hope this clears it up for you.

Yes, but no polling organisation is going to be providing anything but raw numbers at the moment. You can not extrapolate what is going on from the raw numbers as the demographics will be all to c*ck.

What might be happening is that someone is seeing telling figures that show Remain is doing better than expected, but anyone who is using that as a yardstick won't be able to understand what is being said.

I imagine that all indicators are following each other at the moment.

The price has lengthened just a tad in the last few minutes

Where?

1.14 to back here. 1/12 with some bookies, as it was earlier.

That does not mean, however, that there will be no exit polling. The Independent understands that some financial institutions have commissioned exit polls, so that they can gain early intelligence of likely movements in the markets.

well - yes, there's lots we don't know about the minutae of how exit polls work; so whether those possibilities you're voicing are likely or not I don't know.  If my aunty had a c0ck....etc.

I read a good piece two or three weeks ago which stated - the media are not allowed to say anything until polls close, but you can watch the money markets during the day as the big Financial Institutions will have their own exit polls commissioned in order to know which way to play.  Watching those markets - so far today - has not suggested the sorts of concerns the markets would be indicating if it were Exit.

You may be ahppy to say these exit polls are a waste of time.  I have no opinion but I believe the very big money Institutions are paying for the data; so somebody, somewhere thinks it means something.

I don't think it's a done deal, personally.  Less than 7/1 exit is not some huge no-hoper.

Am I right in thinking everyone on here who thinks the odds, the strong ftse and pound may not be indicative of the result, are these people mostly in the quit camp?

Asking for a friend.

Exit polls are not a waste of time, they are the most reliable polling that it is possible to get. That's why the Exit polls are rarely far out from the real result.

My point is that knowing how Exit polls work, it is currently impossible to provide meaningful data from them this early throughout the day. For example you could use the telling figures from before 9pm but the majority of those will be commuters and unless you wish to know which way commuters are voting the numbers are useless for extrapolating to the wider demographics.

I'd doubt any polling company commissioned will be putting out any results as yet unless there's a drip feed open.

they trade international currency in real time - these privately commissioned polls are not "telling us the result".  The markets are indicating what the pollsters have learned so far.  They THINK it's remain.  They don't KNOW.  Jesus, it's not hard.

Jun 23, 2016 -- 7:43AM, bigpoppapump wrote:

they trade international currency in real time - these privately commissioned polls are not "telling us the result".

*sigh* No ones suggested the result is known.

It doesn't matter who commissioned the polls, they still will be giving no meaningful data that's not how they work.

What you might have is a drip feed of numbers, but that's as useful as saying the Conservatives have done well in Kensington & Chelsea before 9pm.

okay - just to be 100% clear - I'm not saying the numbers are meaningful - I'm saying very large investment institutions think the exit polls are worth paying for.  That's all I'm saying.

Jun 23, 2016 -- 7:56AM, bigpoppapump wrote:

okay - just to be 100% clear - I'm not saying the numbers are meaningful - I'm saying very large investment institutions think the exit polls are worth paying for.

Of course and they are. The point is they won't be moving the markets as they won't have been produced yet.

interesting (genuinely, I'm not being facetious).

why do you think this?  (when will they be produced)?

my assumption is that - 6 hours in to the day's trading - they are using data from the exit polls.  The stability of the markets and the shortening of the b/f price during today reflects the assumption that new data is being used since the final polls from last night.  If there was no new data - wouldn't we still be at 1.3?

Jun 23, 2016 -- 7:23AM, errytay wrote:

The price has lengthened just a tad in the last few minutes Where? 1.14 to back here. 1/12 with some bookies, as it was earlier.

As I said it was a small move from 1.12 to 1.14, but at the same time the £ jumped down by a slight amount.

That was just about an hour ago, so I wonder if we are due an update?

very cheap to get involved laying the 1.15 if nothing new is known since yesterday.

Of course they're moving the markets. Otherwise, why do them? Are the traders just curious and clubbed together to find out.


While exit polls at this stage won't be definitive, they will give an indication. Of course that indication can be wrong but that will also be taken into account. Right now, I'm guessing the exit polls are suggesting that the turnout is high, that a lot of younger people are voting and the majority of people who were undecided a short while ago have opted for Remain.

These traders' jobs are predicated on gathering information, extrapolating it and understanding how that will have an effect on the markets. Note, these exit polls aren't for the BBC who are bound then to remain impartial and only release their figures after polling has closed. These are private companies conducting interviews for other private companies and are dripfeeding the data to them as and when they get it.

If the quitters want to win this they need to get their activists to get their voters out there right now and try to nudge the markets back the other way and try to swing momentum.

Jun 23, 2016 -- 8:11AM, Shab wrote:

Jun 23, 2016 --  1:23PM, errytay wrote:The price has lengthened just a tad in the last few minutes Where? 1.14 to back here. 1/12 with some bookies, as it was earlier.As I said it was a small move from 1.12 to 1.14, but at the same time the £ jumped down by a slight amount.That was just about an hour ago, so I wonder if we are due an update?

Now down to .9% up for the day from the high of 1.69%. I can imagine they had 'exit polls within the first couple of hours'. I'd imagine new results are coming in every hour for them and it's taking a slight dip.

if I were to announce I just laid the 1.15 do you think I could move a market in which £60m has been matched.

If I can move a B365 cricket market with a £2 bet, maybe I can do this? 

I was just thinking about moving the market - now, if you controlled the data of an exit poll, and everybody was watching your moves, you could have some great fun with that.

That's not your £102k that's just appeared at 1.15 is it?

Nathan Rothschild did that when he got the Waterloo result first. Pushed the market the wrong way first and then bet the other way. It only works if you are the only trader with the new information.

FTSE now only 0.48& up down from 1.69% this morning...

Jun 23, 2016 -- 8:14AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Of course they're moving the markets. Otherwise, why do them? Are the traders just curious and clubbed together to find out.While exit polls at this stage won't be definitive, they will give an indication. Of course that indication can be wrong but that will also be taken into account. Right now, I'm guessing the exit polls are suggesting that the turnout is high, that a lot of younger people are voting and the majority of people who were undecided a short while ago have opted for Remain.These traders' jobs are predicated on gathering information, extrapolating it and understanding how that will have an effect on the markets. Note, these exit polls aren't for the BBC who are bound then to remain impartial and only release their figures after polling has closed. These are private companies conducting interviews for other private companies and are dripfeeding the data to them as and when they get it. If the quitters want to win this they need to get their activists to get their voters out there right now and try to nudge the markets back the other way and try to swing momentum.

You don't seem to understand that Exit polls aren't the basic numbers, the polling company will take the information from the tellers and use it's methodology to produce a meaningful poll. There is no way it'll be doing that this early.

You may be getting the raw numbers but you certainly won't be getting anything like meaningful polling data.

Market moving now

What's your view on the situation CJ70, you seem like one of the wiser ones on here.

ffs wow

Whats going on there then? I dont understand whats driving any of this

The £ is falling too. Either unpleasant information or traders moving the markets

there you go. 

Theyre just moving each other!

Jun 23, 2016 -- 8:47AM, ZenMaster wrote:

What's your view on the situation CJ70, you seem like one of the wiser ones on here.

I think the only information we can go on is the pre-election polls. Nothing gleaned from today will be any use so far IMO.

I suspect there will be some fairly sharp moves in all markets - prob both ways as private polls come back later with their (probably incomplete) picture and those that 'know' bet accordingly. If henry candy has a good day at Newmarket I might have a proper play later!

My post of 1039 said it would be volatile - it aint fecking rocket science is it? Unfortunately Mr Candy seems to have a lot of nrs!

Since then it's pointed to something like 53-56% remain

Not a big Trader myself.But couldn't this whole thing be just manipulation of these Markets to just do a sort of Sorros thing.There is a mass of cash out there in the markets & the likes of here to just Harvest if you have the clout & knowledge to do it.

I really do not think that the actual Vote is anywhere near finished.

I am still really hopeful of our Leave result.Nothing much has changed.

Rd - i said when this was confirmed that it is nowt to do with Europe and everyhting to do with city boys making money combined with the sideshow of the Con leadership contest. I don't think the city thought it would be this close and that it would be a nice trading opp and a win win situation. If there is a brexit then the migration figs will change quickly as 100,000 odd people move to Paris/Frankfurt pretty sharpish!

Wouldn't be so terrible.

there will be a little bit of city money in the betfair market at these levels but the sums being traded are peanuts compared to whats being staked in london this afternoon, if they really wanted to manipulate the market theres plenty of funds that could hoover down to 1.01 in a heartbeat and hardly shed a tear if they got it wrong.

On current available bets it would cost around 1.6 million to do that. Not sure how much you need to keep asking for at 1.01 to hold the price until the market closes.

The banks simply don't understand the common man. They think remain is a no brainer. Pete from Oldham and everyone he works with are voting Leave

I'm a 1%er to m8.

Lets hope Pete is on to something.

InsiderTrader
23 Jun 16 16:33
On current available bets it would cost around 1.6 million to do that. Not sure how much you need to keep asking for at 1.01 to hold the price until the market closes.


Date
    Shares     Turnover (£)     Trades     Traded Stocks     Advanced Stocks     Declined Stocks     Unchanged Stocks
23/Jun/2016 16:45     1,035,630,375     4,925,112,505     1,013,488     1,759     1,133     553     73


a mere 5 billion traded today

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/statistics/daily-trading/daily-trading.html

4-1 and 9-2 LEAVE now its been cut slightly this afternoon whether its enough to cause a bit of panic I don't know , these so called private polls by financial companies must have indicted something earlier to cut Remain to 1-10 at one point

1.06 now.

Yep £150k just came in and backed remain

Absolutely gutted and I don't even live in the UK

Farage has declared Remain have won

"Remain have edged it"

1.09