Greek "NO" vote is too short.

Too short?? It's 2.8?

You think it should be bigger than 2.8?

I was just thinking that. You are dead right. Its not just mixing my long and shorts the yes and the no are complicated in this.

I think the Greeks will say "No" to Austerity tomorrow.

Oxi!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Saying no to austerity sounds so simple and positive doesnt it. 

Saying yes to default, bankruptcy and total financial collapse doesnt sound quite so enticing.

For what it's worth I agree that 'No' is too big.

I'm not touching the market though as I don't underestimate the Greeks ability to vote for someone else to keep paying the bills while they party.

To many Greeks Rudolf Havenstein got most things right

Metron/Parapolitik (Thurs-Fri) – YES 46%, NO 47% (No ahead by 1%)
GPO/Mega TV (Wed-Fri) – YES 44.1%, NO 43.7% (Yes ahead by 0.4%)
Alco/Proto Thema (Wed-Fri) – YES 41.7%, NO 41.1% (Yes ahead by 0.6%)
Ipsos (Tues-Fri) – YES 44%, NO 43% (Yes ahead by 1%)
Uni of Macedonia/Bloomberg (Thurs) – YES 42.5%, NO 43% (No ahead by 0.5%)

Latest polls stolen from the excellent UK Polling Report.

typical response from cj..while they party..do these people look like they are parting to you..you idiot..blame politicians from the greek right who took them into the euro when they were in no state to go in, and lied too for years..if you had what is going on there now partying is the last thing you would do..(total fool)

Average national income is about 2005 levels according to Washington Post article this afternoon.

I'd like to get an invite to one of tony57's parties though. If the hookers coke and champagne are paid for with your savings then it's not enough.

Jul 4, 2015 -- 1:25PM, tony57 wrote:

typical response from cj..while they party..do these people look like they are parting to you..you idiot..blame politicians from the greek right who took them into the euro when they were in no state to go in, and lied too for years..if you had what is going on there now partying is the last thing you would do..(total fool)

When you say typical, you mean true?

Do they look like they are partying? No. Are they partying in relative terms? Yes.

It's like the end of the party when all the good stuff has run out and someone finds a case of Lambrini behind the fridge. It's ****, it's not what your used to but hey it's free so we'll keep on partying a bit longer.

I'd be very surprised if there is a no vote. Not amazed but very surprised. There is an awful lot of pressure being brought on to the Greek people by the full apparatus of the Euro political machine.

indeed eo..the screw is being tightened..but I think it,ll be close 48-52 either way..i applaud the greek government for taking on the troika

Not much of a choice really is there. They are screwed either way. A no vote would be a huge gamble though as who knows just how bad it could get.

many prefer the chaos of no for a few years printing their own currency hyperinflation etc..but at least there would be light at the end of the tunnel?..to agree to the creditors demands mean they never have there own destiny..the germans will tighten the knot more..

Maybe you are right tony but its a brave choice going for an option which could lead to a proper humanitarian crisis. Any idea what percentage of their food requirements come from abroad? I believe they have to import all their fuel?

no, your right,but what would you prefer, 4-5 yrs of REAL hard times..or a lifetime ..they have no other choice, who's to say when they print the drachma again it,ll be as bad as we think? its uncharted territory?

There are two issues. What do you do and how you can change attitudes within the country so you don't end up in the same position down the line? What you do may even be easier because you've got two choices. One is take an Icelandic style route and the other is buckle under and have decades more of austerity being directed in how to organise the economy by the northern europeans. The first is higher risk but the question is whether the Greeks are prepared to take the kind of outside interference accompanied by the level of oversight coming with option two.

Arguably the more difficult question is how to change attitudes within Greece. As yet much of the populace have a similar attitude to their work as was prevalent in much of Britain in the 60's and the world has moved on since those days. It can be done but will the people buy into it?

Betty Batziana may leave her pm hubby if there's a yes vote.

She's a communist and thought to be the driving force behind Tsipras.

Nobody really knows do they. In a years time we might be saying how well Greece is doing since its default and how they should have done it 5 years previously. We may of course be having collections for them to help them eat as it descends into some sort of hell hole more commonly seen in Africa.

They'll be having collections for them to eat anyway as they have been over the last few years. They've just cut out the voluntary aspect and the collections have been liberally rinsed so they could continue to bail out banks in places like Germany.

As Greece are skint, I wonder just how much it is going to cost to actually hold this referendum?

'no' odds rapidly shortening now

13/8 NO to 4/9 in 30 mins

Tellers must be seeing large crowds of people backing the Gov.

Well this is going to be an interesting week

Don't trust the Greeks so I'm not jumping on that train but someone will have made a fortune there.

.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010

It's a long read, stop when the article tells you that the Greeks invented maths, but just astonishing numbers. Over 60k Euro a year average for rail workers.

Maybe the Greek Govt have lumped on NO with enough to pay off their debts.

I live in Greece and everyone I have spoken to in the last week has said OXI (no).Around 50 people... Not a single yes.
They actually believe that europe will say "OK Greece, there you go more cash" They do not think that the Drachma is coming or is even a possibility.

NAIVE,BRAINWASHED or JUST DUMB i am not sure??

Too trusting.

Varoufakis has come out and said he'll have a better deal for Greece within 24hrs if the result is no. Now I know where's he coming from as Juncker et al will bend over backwards to accomodate Greece, the serious people are not so friendly to his game theory.

Whatever the final result you have to say melv made a blinding call there. Congratulations to him and anybody else who followed him in. You could now be sat on a very nice profit.

As for what happens politically if it is a no vote we live in interesting times.

A yes vote only delays the inevitable.

Yes, well done melv, an excellent call.

polls say greece has voted no

young people have voted NO I read 80-90% in polls. There would likely be extreme violence / war before "the inevitable " Dotchinite.

What? I dont understand your point?

I took it you mean " the inevitable " leaving the Euro ?

If the polls are correct the majority of young ( and up to 35/40 age  ) will not accept a YES vote.

Well yes vote and another bailout only delays things doesnt it. Sooner or later Greece will have to default and leave. What is the significance of the angry young NO voters who are effectively voting to leave today?

Well played melv. Wish I'd followed you in.

I doubt this will be the final offer on the table. Could we see a best of 3?

If the all the 'no' voters lumped on with their 60 Euros from the ATM they wouldn't need a bailout..

The difference between the likely actions of people at the end of their lives and those at the start with their lives before them and  with the energy to do something about it is pretty obvious.

Im not sure how some angry young Greeks can make the EU continually fund their country? They certainly cant use threats to stay within the Euro.

You say the young have voted No which is likely to lead to a Euro exit yet you are saying somehow they wont let it happen?

Melv is a shrewd betting man.
Well done

Dotchinite
Im not sure how some angry young Greeks can make the EU continually fund their country? They certainly cant use threats to stay within the Euro.

You say the young have voted No which is likely to lead to a Euro exit yet you are saying somehow they wont let it happen?

Greece is a non-issue economically (except within Greece itself)

The big issue is political contagion to Spain and Italy. The Spanish elections later this year look *VERY* interesting. The 'Spanish Syriza' are doing very well in the polls.

If Spain and Italy start kicking off, the Euro is dead meat.

Basically, the Troika are desperate to avoid political contagion by being either too nice to Greece, or too harsh. Its a tightrope they are walking.

agree totally subversion.

I agree, those running the EU won't want others to get ideas about leaving the fourth reich.

Watching sky tv now and the news coming out of Germany seems that there will be no negotiations with Greece and it could be weeks rather than months before Greece has to leave the euro.

..that must mean that the ECB will start emergency funding for the banks........

..beacause the greek banks havnt even got 2 days (even with capital controls) before the ATM money runs out!!!!

and if there is no funding from ECB then they will to release the Drachma and load that into the ATM's