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I had not looked much at how the numbers stacked up at this election until now but if i was a betting man without any morals i would be backing a tory/lib dem/ulster unionist mps coalition.
I think they can just get past the winning post with or without a handful of ukippers if their seats are needed.
I have just one question. The tory/lib dem coalition odds are 3/1. I am assuming this bet wins if the tories and lib dems form a coalition govt even if there are other parties in that coalition as the dup are not quoted in the betting permutations i have seen.
The unionists in n.ireland will bring 10 or 11 mps to the party whether they be dup or ulster ulster. The range of the numbers of the unionists from n.ireland who will be elected is very narrow so its just a matter of working backwards from there.
I think they can just get past the winning post with or without a handful of ukippers if their seats are needed.
I have just one question. The tory/lib dem coalition odds are 3/1. I am assuming this bet wins if the tories and lib dems form a coalition govt even if there are other parties in that coalition as the dup are not quoted in the betting permutations i have seen.
The unionists in n.ireland will bring 10 or 11 mps to the party whether they be dup or ulster ulster. The range of the numbers of the unionists from n.ireland who will be elected is very narrow so its just a matter of working backwards from there.
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290 tories, 22 lib dems and 11 n.ireland mps and you have your govt.
Told you this hours ago just the same as backing Cameron at evens,infact I got a bet on in an indie in town double treble and seats 285 evens,Con/lib 4/1 and Cameron evens pays 20/1 looks certainty at the moment..
The only thing certain with that bet Gigs is you will not be getting paid 20/1 if it wins. Its a related bet and would be split into 3 singles so if you really have done it go in and ask for your winnings if any of those 3 singles wins.
That's why I did it was indie in town centre,i know the manager will pay put.There's anevenbetter bet on spreads as well 276-300 with 365 cons and 251-275 labour evens 365 looks nailed on for both...
Actually looking at bets last night for the first real time that bet on the tories getting between 276 and 300 was the only one which caught my eye.
Very surprised you get paid on that treble especially with the numbers you bet with Gigs
Very surprised you get paid on that treble especially with the numbers you bet with Gigs
You cant even do a double on constituencies as that would be a related bet especially if you wanted to backed several snp's in Scotland. You would just have to pick the most marginal seat for the snp and then back other safer snp seats in an accumulator.
Known the mager of shop for 20 years,he also lets me do placepots without going in the pool as well I only bet in the shop once or twice or year I don't bet in there to win large sums of money I used to have my office in the back of his shop so he just lets me have these small interest bets.
Think those spread bets look the bets to be on and that con/lib coalition as main bets,can't really see what else can happen in the spread bets unless the tories get over 300..
Think those spread bets look the bets to be on and that con/lib coalition as main bets,can't really see what else can happen in the spread bets unless the tories get over 300..
Getting back to my question does a tory/lib dem coalition have to be the only two parties in their coalition for this bet to win or does it include the dup and ukip and possibly an independent joining them joining them?
You're relying on lib Dems holding marginals from labour, can't see it myself
You're relying on lib Dems holding marginals from labour, can't see it myself
You're relying on lib Dems holding marginals from labour, can't see it myself
If they ever bring back big deal Gigs they could use your local indy as the set for the bookies and you could play the character of Robbie Box!
Pandora these figures are almost certainties the torys are switching to the liberals to make sure they win their seats,clegg was losing he's now 7% in friont all the tory voters have admitted to voting for him to get the coalition.
Ukip and the unionists from n.ireland look a safe bet to give a tory/lib dem coalition a pretty much guaranted 14/15 odd seats if they joined them and there is a bit of an upside to that number if ukip did better. You just surely need to work backwards from there on the basis you will probably need 323 assuming sinn fein win 5 seats which they would take up.
If I was laying Con/LD and we ended with Con/LD/DUP I'd be playing blydi murder if that paid out. As ever with Betfair some of the wording of the markets are vague at best.
But surely there is a decent possibility that the dup could play a significant part in this election so if they are not included in any coalition for betting purposes it would mean the bookmakers could skin the whole market. I am assuming they must be included in any coalition market but would like some confirmation.
DUP influence vital imo but press have hardly mentioned them.
I am saying dup as they would bring the most votes but it could be dup,possibly a single uup,maybe a single independent unionist and possibly also a few ukips if a lib dem/tory coalition needed all of those.
Anyone know the rules for certain.
Anyone know the rules for certain.
The fact that neither labour or the tories made any comments last week about the dup health minister having to resign due to homophobic remarks on the hustings and again on the campaign doorsteps of a voter says that both main parties think they might need the dup.
Skybet have 18/1 any coalition including a Northern Ireland party.
Thanks for that Meadows. I think I have just found my bet. I doubt the limits will be that much even if I open a new account. More of an interest bet anyway.
I agree with CJ. The markets on here are in some cases unclear,possibly inevitably given that there are 100s of possible permutations. I'm sticking to the horses.
That 18/1 does look good. Limited to pennies at Skybet though.
regarding the con/libdem bet , i would think that is only what they would pay out on, any other parties involved and you lose
I am barred after taking advantage of a Rugby League handicap bet about ten years ago.
To be part of a coalition, means having a seat in the cabinet rather than a pact to vote with the government?
Yes, that is my understanding. If you simply agreed to support the government on a confidence and supply or vote by vote basis that party would not be considered to be part of a formal coalition.
I would have thought it was a govt post not necessarily in the cabinet. Most ministers aren't in the cabinet. I don't know how BF define it though.
If a Northern Ireland party was in a formal coalition with the government, surely the post of Northern Ireland Secretary would be the top candidate for a cabinet post?
Agreed that an official government post may be a more accurate description.
Probably,but say UKIP have 2 seats would Cameron give them a Cabinet post even if he needed those 2 votes. I don't know and I doubt whether he does. That's what I meant by there being 100s of permutations.
Sinn Fein might even take up their seats to keep the Tories out. Unlikely I know but we are in strange territory.
Sinn Fein might even take up their seats to keep the Tories out. Unlikely I know but we are in strange territory.
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