Politics
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14 Nov 13
05:31
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Date Joined:
21 Feb 11
If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union how would you vote?
2013 Leave EU Remain in EU Would not vote Don't know
Nov 10-11 39% 39% 5% 17%
Jan 2- 3 46% 31% 6% 16%
Source YouGov
After a Daily Mail and UKip onslaught and deep recession. Major problems in the EU economy and the prospect of Roma & Bulgarian hordes about to land at Heathrow well puplicised.
Attitudes to EU membership has markedly softened. Those wanting out, down -7% since Jan. Those wanting to remain + 8%.
If level pegging is the best the 'no' vote campaign can do after all that, with the economy improving and the big business machine still to play its hand with a mass media 'yes' campaign. The writing is already on the wall.
I forecast a similar 2-1 In favour, similar to the seventies, when the votes are cast.
2013 Leave EU Remain in EU Would not vote Don't know
Nov 10-11 39% 39% 5% 17%
Jan 2- 3 46% 31% 6% 16%
Source YouGov
After a Daily Mail and UKip onslaught and deep recession. Major problems in the EU economy and the prospect of Roma & Bulgarian hordes about to land at Heathrow well puplicised.
Attitudes to EU membership has markedly softened. Those wanting out, down -7% since Jan. Those wanting to remain + 8%.
If level pegging is the best the 'no' vote campaign can do after all that, with the economy improving and the big business machine still to play its hand with a mass media 'yes' campaign. The writing is already on the wall.
I forecast a similar 2-1 In favour, similar to the seventies, when the votes are cast.
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when the votes are cast.
I think on the basis of the opinion poll being that close, there will be no vote in the next ten years. More waffle about re-negotiations, and more "promises" that never come to fruition. The corporates want us in; and they rule the roost. |
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Quite likely it would be a "yes" vote to stay in. However, the political class aren't sure - if they were they would have had a referendum and put the issue to bed.
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As I have posted elsewhere, it was easier for the politicians to persuade the voter to swing from no to yes back in the 70s as we had no experience of the Common Market as it was.
Todays voters are much more clued up about the EU. |
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On the run up, and with no experience of, the majority was firmly against in the 70's, until the media campaign turned that around, and into a 2-1 majority. People are always afraid of the unknown.
With level pegging today after the Daily Mail/Farage banging on about it for years, there will be very little for the 'yes' campaign to do. Better a devil you know, than a devil (coming out) you don't. |
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Luckily it will be fools like nlad making the argument to stay, that will guarantee us leaving
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forecast a similar 2-1 In favour, similar to the seventies, when the votes are cast- says nolad
************************** the plebs have never been asked if they want to be in the eu they were asked if the wanted to stay in the common market funny that , the political class go in, and then ask in each case- cunning what about the onslaught from the bbc opinion re eu is highly volatile depending on how bad things look if things in the lovely eu go pearshape opinion will change sharply ha ha |
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We'll still trade with the EU if we come out.
We can afford to pay the tariffs they will levy against us. They need to trade with us so we will impose our own levies on them. |
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The Germans have said they will do whatever is needed to keep the EU show on the road.
That's as long as the German people will allow them to keep giving their money away. |
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cameron is a rabid nwo globalist and not a euro sceptic as he pretends - an elitist toff to the core
the purpose of the 'renegotiation' followed by a referendum is to divide the anti eu vote camo and the eu will stage a negotiation supposedly making significant concessions while in reality giving nothing camo will return in glory a la chamberlain claiming to have got major concessions and urging them to vote yes a significant part of the anti vote will peel off and the yes vote will win on the other hand, in the event of a no vote, the lovely eu will say - 'vote again' plebs |
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Cameron is unquestionable pro-EU. He just trots out the odd anti-EU dogma to keep the backbenchers happy.
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I would like Britain to get out of the EU but I know our business and political masters will never allow us do that and the Yes propaganda machine will be formidable once its disinformation campaign begins.
But the fact is the EC/Common Market/EU has always had the same objective which was ever closer economic and political union of the member states into a federal state of Europe from the 1950s to the 1970s or present times. It was already decided even before Britain ever joined in 1973 that they would adopt a single currency. Many Britons were gullible enough to believe it was only a trade thing in the 1970s but fathers of the project never hid what their aims were and some of our politicians just fooled the public as usual. If our politicos only wanted free trade with the EEC bloc we could just have emulated the Swiss and signed bilateral deals with the other 100s of nations rather than signing up and constantly moaning about fundamental aspects of the membership like free movement of people or the subservience of our judiciary to the integrated European one!!! |
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Dr Crippen 14 Nov 13 12:39 Joined: 16 Apr 02
The Germans have said they will do whatever is needed to keep the EU show on the road. That's as long as the German people will allow them to keep giving their money away. It's all funny central bank money (so far) Cripps, the German people haven't been asked to ante up a single euro. Their taxes haven't gone up, their unemployment is an at all time low, their growth continues right along around 7pc, and their account surplus is chucking along as if the crisis in the periphery doesn't exist. The German people have greatly benefited form keeping the EU show on the road, not the other way around. And if you are referring to the bailouts of the bankrupt periphery, you need to be aware that in Greece for example 98pc of all bailout funds find their way back to the creditors. It's not Greece, which has been getting progressively worse and now as close to a societal collapse as we have ever witnessed in a developed economy, it's the bankers again. Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy have different numbers but the idea is the same. Where if the money coming from? But the ECB of course, not German taxpayers. The same ECB who is supposedly forbidden by treaties to monetize debt. That ECB. What else other than back-door monetization is the LTRO? What else by overt monetization are the swaps with worthless Italian bank paper? What else but blatant monetization is the ELA funneled to the Greek banking system? Now had you mention the Target2 imbalances catching up to the Germany people someday, with the Bundesbank having to print trillions to make up for the lost right side of the ledger when it all blows up, thus debasing German money, then I would have to agree with you. But that day is not here yet. |
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mene, why don't you stick to intelligent posts like that rather than all the nonsense?
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Here's my prediction.
We'll never get to vote on the EU issue. The EU will "reshape" itself all on its own long before then. The imbalances the common currency has created (and continues to create) haven't gone away. They are not going away until the cancer itself is removed - and that's the euro. I know there is a lot of political capital invested in the european project, and guys like Barosso and Van Rompuy probably couldn't cut it as a mid-level manager at a small sized firm therefore will fight tooth and nail for the EU, and UNFORTUNATELY the majority of people in crisis countries still poll wanting the euro (because the euro brought easy money, low interest rates, credit expansion, and economic boom beyond what would be naturally occurring in their economies and they benefited from it, and their old currencies are historically associated with high inflation, so they falsely believe that somehow staying in the euro could mean the return of the boom times. That's a pipe dream, not reality. It's over) ALL OF WHICH ARE GREAT OBSTACLES TO OVERCOME but you can't ignore gravity. Austerity hasn't been the answer and entire societies are falling apart in the periphery, especially in Greece. Riot police can keep crowd control and law and order only for so long, especially as people begin to get desperate. What can't be sustained, won't be sustained. The euro's days are numbered by default. No EU referendum needed. |
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Good post, but until such time as the whole thing implodes we have to make moves to leave
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..well it had better implode pretty dam quickly Blackburn......
..because if this is anything to by all the pretence will be gone and we will all be able to see what many of us have known for a while.....that we are simply mice on a wheel to give our lives to the corporate elite. as far as I can see this is a first step on the road to the end of democracy as we know it. Shocking. The United States and European Union (EU) are in closed-door negotiations to establish a Trans-Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (TAFTA) that would elevate individual corporations to equal status with nation states. Seriously. The pact is slated to include a foreign investor privileges scheme that would empower foreign corporations to bypass domestic laws and courts and demand taxpayer compensation for government actions or policies to safeguard clean air, safe food and stable banks. This "investor-state" enforcement system would grant foreign firms the power to drag the U.S. and EU governments before extrajudicial tribunals -- comprised of three private attorneys -- that would be authorized to order unlimited taxpayer compensation for domestic health, financial, environmental and other public interest policies the corporations claim undermine their "expected future profits." And, there would be no outside appeal Quite chilling.  ..full article here http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-wallach/trade-deal-would-elevate_b_4143626.html |
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You should be more concerned with what is already here, not what might come.
All those bureaucrats running the European Stability Mechanism have been granted complete immunity from court action and prosecution. Allow me to explain what that means. Those bureaucrats who have been given virtually unlimited ECB liquidity (which under "emergency measures" can go way further than the 700bn euro current credit line at the ECB and expand totally without limits if the ESM is granted a banking license, in clear violation of current treaties) can make decisions on bailing out eurozone sovereigns or systemically important financial entities WITHOUT ASKING ANYONE, without your Government's approval or input, and far more importantly, BY COMMITTING YOUR MONEY any way they see fit and while your representatives have no say and no choice but to ante up. With fines levied if your government fails to ante up in time, which undoubtedly will be all passed on to you to pay. And do all this while being above the law of any land, immune to prosecution for any of their actions that are unfair, fraudulent, violate treaties, violate sovereign laws, or just simply go dreadfully wrong. http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/582311/05-tesm2.en12.pdf This is not too dissimilar to Hank Paulson asking and receiving complete immunity from prosecution relating to TARP, when at the same time (by his own admission as we later found out) he knew the $700bn TARP money would not go to purchase troubled assets as presented to the American Congress for approval but rather to directly purchase equity in banks. He can now freely admit lying to Congress because he has complete immunity from prosecution. To Hank Paulson "perjury" is nothing more than a word in a dictionary somewhere and nothing much more. And don't even get me going with bail-in mechanisms now approved and in place putting your hard earn savings sooner to later at risk. Or sovereign debt under UK law that can not be expunged, therefore entire nations are debt slaves forever. We're back to Lords and Serfs, the only difference this time is that the serfs have an iPhone in their hands and are distracted playing with apps. |
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BORIS
As a gullible fool I voted for us to go into the Common Market - note that is what it was called then in this country. You cannot, however, call me a count for voting that way, because counts are useful !!!!!! A common market!!! now a federal union. I want out!!!! |