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blackburn1
15 May 12 08:43
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Date Joined: 15 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 25,801 | Blogger: blackburn1's blog
Greece is when not if they leave the euro, what a waste of money trying to prop it up.

I'd have 3 co favs in Portugal, Spain and Italy. France wont be far behind
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Report V4 Vendetta May 15, 2012 9:06 AM BST
Spain first.
Report blackburn1 May 15, 2012 9:12 AM BST
I think you might be right, my tricast is

Spain
Portugal
Italy
Report Eeternaloptimist May 15, 2012 9:59 AM BST
What odds on Germamy closely followed by some of the other Northern states to form a solvent core euro? A longer shot granted but how long are they going to keep throwing good money after bad if the outcome is nigh on inevitable anyway?
Report blackburn1 May 15, 2012 10:10 AM BST
Of course they wont EO, the europhiles are so tightly lashed to the mast they cant and wont admit its all over.

Once again the vanity of a few has created misery for millions, it used to be wars, now its money.
Report gettingbetter2 May 15, 2012 10:39 AM BST
The whole project with hindsight was ill-conceived, with a lack of tough rules to control borrowing by members. Countries now need to accept that they need to accept a retro-fit of such rules or be banned from issuing euros.
As Greece doesn't look like it will accept such rules it will need be banned from issuing Euros. But it could still use them, in the same way that Ecuador uses US dollars for example. I believe that Andorra, Kosovo, Montenegro, Monaco, San Marino, and the Vatican City use Euros but cannot issue them. Greece could go this way and any bookmakers offering odds on Euro exits need to be careful how they draw up the rules.
Meanwhile no other country currently seems to be wanting to go the Greek way. That could change but it is unlikely that any country that is prepared to accept that its fiscal policy is controlled from Brussels and Berlin will be thrown out.
Report Java May 15, 2012 10:43 AM BST
Germany like the Euro because it gives them such a competitive exchange rate compared to the DM.  This won't happen if they only club together with a few healthy northern states.  So the choice for them is simple:  The can continue to benefit from the Euro but the cost is that they have to subsidize the greeks/spanish/italians etc.

It's a zero sum game.
Report Eeternaloptimist May 15, 2012 11:23 AM BST
Java

The Germans are an intensely practical people with a deep affinity for the Mark. The euro made sense to them at the time. If and when the transfers of money to club med outweigh the trade advantages then I expect there is a real possibility of them reverting to their pragmatic selves.
Report Eeternaloptimist May 15, 2012 11:25 AM BST
gettingbetter

Forget hindsight. The likes of sibaroni will clutch at that straw when the project sinks. They were told in advance why it was a disaster in the making for the exact same reasons that it is turning into a disaster. The europhiles must not be extended any kind of fig leaf to hide their embarrassment.
Report Arleystation May 15, 2012 12:20 PM BST
Exactly - there was plenty of foresight which was shouted down in the usual way. Similar to anyone who questioned climate change over the last few decades when planet Earth has existed for trillions of years.
Report metro john May 15, 2012 12:27 PM BST
It could be us we are the only nation in double dip?
Report ClayDavis May 15, 2012 12:31 PM BST
Merkel goes to the country next year. She faces defeat. Expect her to try and prop up the Euro until next summer
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