Boris poaches 9 point lead

REd Ken is a sectarian,tax avoiding hypocrite, a left wing loony whose spending plans match those of Ed Balls.

USUAL TORY POSTAL VOTE SCAMS.....

KEN WILL WIN!

The districts being investigated are Tower Hamlets and Banglatown (I think that is what it is called).

Are you surmising these are Conservative strong-holds?

Right on cue here comes TORY BOY

sibaroni

the WHOLE POSTAL VOTE issue is MESS......and imho ALL POSTAL VOTING SHOULD BE STOPPED!

Let me tell you why....

In July 2011 I sold my house prior to moving to France and moved in to a house I previously rented out...

Once I MOVED TO FRANCE I got BOMBARDED with literature from the Conservative Party BEGGING me to register for an ex-pat POSTAL VOTE at my original address......when I queried this it turns out they got data directly from the local CONSERVATIVE COUNCIL - surely this is ILLEGAL!

In the past week I have come back to Worcester for a wedding tomorrow...

I find VOTING CARDS for both my original house (that are in my name and in the new owners name) and for the house I owned and previously rented (in both the original tenants name and my name).....

I could conceivably vote 4 times on Thursday - if I was here!

The TORIES are very cute at chasing the ex-pat vote and I suspect they are breaking data protection laws to facilitate that!

The Labour Party has a poor record on the issue particuarly in Asian areas of inner cities

The Lib Dems hold the Gold Medal for electoral fraud and mal-practise with fraudulent claims and electioneering over many you and I know that Sibaroni we have BOTH been involved in outrageous and scurrilous by election campaigning especially under Ashdown!

Add in the BNP and Respect and its little wonder the WHOLE SYSTEM is corrupt...

IMHO

STOP ALL POSTAL AND PROXY VOTING

I don't disagree. All parties have abused it, mine included.  It was Labour who introduced it - the logic was it increased turn out which helped them.

But is is ripe for abuse.  Bin it.

I confess!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I did POACH two eggs yesterday  yum yum!!!

There's now another online poll from Survation online showing Boris with an 11.2% lead. This is probably out of line as is the YouGov one with the 2% lead and the truth is somewhere in between.

In 2008 the actual result had Boris winning by 6.44% on first preferences, I expect roughly the same again with Boris getting around 1,050,000 FP votes and Ken about 900,000.

Ken had 50,000 more Second preferences last time but this year because of the coalition I expect Boris to get more Lib/Dem Second Prefs, he's a Euro sceptic so he'll get nearly all the UKIP and although he doesen't court them he will probably get the majority of the BNP second prefs.

Ken will get nearly all the Green second prefs and a majority of Bonita's, but I reckon Bonita is over hyped most people don't read Twitter or Facebook or take any notice of her bandwagon, she will finish seventh in the end. Ken might get a few thousend more second prefs altogether but Boris will win the popular vote by 150,000-140,000 votes.

In terms of boroughs, ken will take Barking/Dagenham, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Hackney, Harringey, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets and Waltham Forest.

Boris will take the other 19 boroughs and the City of London.

I agree with most of this

A win for BJ in the mayoral race if it comes as expected amidst a sea of bad results for the conservatives in the local elections is going to be a big worry for Cameron.

It would be an even bigger worry for Cameron if the buffoon lost to Ken.

He'd be free to go after Cameron then.

It would be an even bigger worry for Cameron if the buffoon lost to Ken.

He'd be free to go after Cameron then.

Either way IT IS A HUGE PROBLEM FOR CAMERON...

BORIS wins and he will become the BEACON for the TORY RIGHT......it is not inconceivable that Cameron could be MOVED OUT by the 1922 - JOHNSON FOUND A SEAT and become Tory LEADER!

Boris loses and he BLAMES CAMERON and goes and gets himself a nice Tory seat after spending 6 months mounting a CAMPAIGN AGAINST CAMERON...

Labour will be sitting back and wondering just which is the better option for them???....though I suspect they want Boris secretly to win as (a) Ken is NOT MAINSTREAM (b) the DONT want Ken getting too big for his boots (c) Boris would become if he won increasingly right wing which would HELP Labour EXPOSE REAL TORY INTENT! 

TORY LOSERS!

Im sure Labour secretly want Boris to win. The idea of Ken as the second highest profile labour person in the country will be sending shivers down the back of labour hq

I totally agree...

Ken out of mainline politics for GOOD would be excellent news for EM as would the thought of a populist Boris winning and being FAR more popular than Cameron or the Party in general...and being able to attack at will cherry picked Cameroon policies in the process.

win/win for EM especially if he can back it up with 500 plus Council seat gains and numerous Local Authorities going to overall Labour Control!

Losing such a high profile election, mid term when the Gvt couldn't be having worse news, is a disaster for Ed.  There is no other way of spinning it.

Sibaroni - once again you prove you know absolutely nothing about politics. No wonder you are a Tory

Agreed Clay....

Labour cant lose whatever the result and beleagured CAMERON cant win - BORIS wins and Cameron is proven to be handicapping his party and BORIS loses and all hell breaks loose when he blames the less popular Party and Leader and vows a leadership campaign...

Agreed Willy

You two fools make Comical Ali look serious.

How can a Boris win be good news for Milliband?

A gay leaflet has arrived telling us how to vote.  How interesting.

First impressions leave me wondering how the BNP canditate is "Carlos Cortiglia".

I shall be voting UKIP (1st) and Ken (2nd).  Bet there won't be many papers like that.

blackie...

Ed would rather see Ken pensioned off FOR GOOD than to see him in situ making daft decisions....

Ed would love to see Boris crowned THE ONLY Tory winner on a day that looks like being a disaster for the Tories with 500 plus seats lost and potential WIPEOUT in the Midlands and North where they are particularly unpopular...

Cameron despises Boris - he was lets not forget his "boot-cleaner" at school...IF Boris wins and the Tories get stuffed an irrepressible band-wagon will build behind Boris to become Tory Leader in the Autumn....and of course as Mayor Boris would over-shadow Shammer at the Olympics....

NIGHTMARE FOR SHAMMER!

willy - Ken is the official Labour party candidate, standing at an unbelievably hard time for the Gvt, and he is going to lose.

There is no way of spinning that other than as an electoral disaster, for Ed as well Labour.  It is that simple.

you know full well that ELECTORAL DISASTER will be the Lib Dems polling less than 10% in 4th or 5th place and the Tories LOSING over 500 Council seats and numerous Councils across

ENGLAND

WALES

SCOTLAND

London is a mere sideshow that 90% of the Uk population aren't interested in and care about even less....a sideshow that is 99% PERSONALITY and 1% politics....

London is not a mere side show.  It is the capital.  Council elections are going to go in Labour's favours mid-term in an election.  That is not my dear boy, an earth shattering result.  I can barely recall an election where a Gvt haven't been hurt mid-term.

I know of not one example of an opposition party losing a by-election or a vote as big as the London Mayoral contest and going to win the General Election afterward.

you really would discount nationwide council losses at your peril...

Mayoral elections are about INDIVIDUALS not Parties.....

The official Labour PArty candidate is going to lose.

so will many other "official labour party candidates on thursday".....but ONE SUSPECTS far far fewer than Conservative and Lib Dem...

Boris is a maverick Tory polling way ahead of is Party and its Leader

Ken is a maverick Labour man once expelled who is polling way below that of his Party and its Leader...

IT IS A COMPLETE AND UTTER IRRELEVANCE OUTSIDE OF THE M25.....and as such FAR LESS important than the COUNCIL ELECTIONS TAKING PLACE on the same day!

ALMOST EVERY OTHER CITY has declined and WILL decline Mayor elections - no wonder with idiots like Boris and Ken!

Today's YouGov poll in the London Evening Standard puts Boris 3% ahead, that was the pollster that had him only 2% ahead last week.

It looks like game over, Boris will win and how can that be good news for EdM? The government is in mid-term and they can't win in the Captial City, the Conservatives have made net gains in council seats almost every year since 1996 the only exception was in 2010 when they only lost a net four.

So of course they are going to lose council seats this time, they can't defy gravity and as I said it's mid term what do you expect?

But make no mistake, 'Tories hold London' will be the headline news given how Londoncentric the media is and the council losses will hardly get a mention.

I don't reckon the losses will be all that bad anyway, in these same seats in 2000 the Tories gained 594 ,in 2004 they gained 283 and in 2008 they gained 256. So even if they lose 500 they're still well up and in a position to win some of them back in 2016.

Today's YouGov poll in the London Evening Standard puts Boris 3% ahead, that was the pollster that had him only 2% ahead last week.

It looks like game over, Boris will win and how can that be good news for EdM? The government is in mid-term and they can't win in the Captial City, the Conservatives have made net gains in council seats almost every year since 1996 the only exception was in 2010 when they only lost a net four.

So of course they are going to lose council seats this time, they can't defy gravity and as I said it's mid term what do you expect?

But make no mistake, 'Tories hold London' will be the headline news given how Londoncentric the media is and the council losses will hardly get a mention.

I don't reckon the losses will be all that bad anyway, in these same seats in 2000 the Tories gained 594 ,in 2004 they gained 283 and in 2008 they gained 256. So even if they lose 500 they're still well up and in a position to win some of them back in 2016.

Poor attempt ALL YOU DO IS belittle THE UNITED KINGDOM - outside of the M25!

The result I want to see is the disgusting Lib/Dems swept away, and replaced by UKIP.
A coalition between UKIP and the Tories would be more like it, instead of this mess we've got with the Tories and Lib/Dems.

The London Ken and Boris farce is merely a side show. Nobody I know has even mentioned it or is interested in the result.

The real result in London WILL BE - the voting for the 25 ASSEMBLY MEMBERS - that will give AN ACCURATE barometer of the respective PARTIES STANDING in LONDON...

That is more IMPORTANT than the personality politics of 2 mavericks!

Sibaroni really knows nothing about politics. Nothing at all. His comments prove time and time again why he is a Tory.

He made a comment the other day - I kid you not - that if Tony Blair hadn't promised to stick to Tory tax and spend polices in 1997 then John Major would have won a second term!!! I swear I'm not making this up!!! Sibaroni stated this the other day.

People who make statements like that prove they know absolutely NOTHING!

Let's deal in FACTS.

London Mayor Election is a sideshow for ED and Labour. Should Ken win it does not enhance Labour's chances of winning a General Election and vice versa.
Ed's big test is the local election results. He needs a big result. Failure here will lead to many in the party calling for his head.
Whereas Mayoral elections are no guide whatsoever to a General Election, local elections are a fairly accurate guide.
These results will make or break Ed. He needs a big breakthrough this Thursday.

Cameron and Osborne haven’t made a big enough balls up of the economy yet to allow Labour to make a strong comeback.
We might have to wait a bit longer, but they’re certainly setting it up for Labour.

"I know of not one example of an opposition party losing a by-election or a vote as big as the London Mayoral contest and going to win the General Election afterward."

Sibaroni's research has let him down once again. It's called the inner Tory. The FACTS just disappear.
Sibaroni - why do you spout such utter drivel? Is it because you are a Tory?

clay, you'd better give us an example then.

And before you go off on some infantile boom boom rant, I don't know the answer

Blackburn - do your own research FFS. There are loads of examples.
Newbury By-Election 1993. Labour received 2% of the votes. Went on to win the next election by a landslide.

Why do research when I have you to present the FACTS?

Thanks anyway.

Any others?

clay no - Labour started and ended on third in Newbury.  An example of losing a by-election (ie. losing a seat as per Bradford) and going to win the next election.

Sibaroni - that is not what you said. But now that you have changed the goalposts I will have a look into it.

That is precisely what I said.  Let me know when you find a FACT; will make a nice change.

Sibaroni - It is not what you said. Look back through the thread. It might be what you meant but it's not what you said

Okay, if you didn't get "losing" to be losing a seat so be it.  You either read very little about politicis or are back-tracking.

It's both actually, everyday clay confirms his status as the forum plank

Here comes fellow Tory and fellow THICKO Blackburn. Sibaroni, your point is utter meaningless. And the more I think of it, only a THICKO would ask such a question about losing a seat!!! Think about it and you will see why.

Now ask a sensible question.

I notice you disappeared from the "strong" economy debate? Not surprised. Oh and still think John Major would have won a second term if Tony Blair hadn't made certain commitments? I mean really?

Blackburn, you have a brown noise. I would be seriously worried if I were you.

nose I mean. it's too early

The final Survation poll is out giving Boris a 12% lead on first prefs, I still think that's too big and the YouGov lead is too small. There might be a final poll from ComRes to come.

Boris is now 1/10 on here, you can get free money at the moment by backing him at 1/5 with PP or Victor and 1/6 with other firms and then laying off on here, don't forget to account for commission.

clay you plank you've been caught with your pants down yet again.

Its clear that your comfort zone extends as far as semi literate Africans, as soon as you're raced with somehow with any semblence of comprehension you're phucked

Blackburn - you are a Grade A t1t.

How have I been caught with my pants down? Explain? You really have no idea what you are talking about do you? Answer the question THICKO

Blackburn - do your own research FFS. There are loads of examples.
Newbury By-Election 1993. Labour received 2% of the votes. Went on to win the next election by a landslide.

Loads of examples eh clay, as sib points out you cant find one.

You are a dunce

Blackburn - post the question he asked and don't lie. You have no idea what you are talking about do you? You have no idea the mistake Sibaroni made and you are repeating? Are you really that thick?

Lie? What am I lying about?

You've shown yourself up as a tribal plank again, I've no need to lie

Clay - it is standard phraseology.  To lose a by-election means to lose the seat.  If you are not aware of that, you read virtually nothing on politics, either that, or you are back-peddling.

I don't care which frankly, both options make their own point as to the value of your input.

clay, I agree with sib on virtually nothing, it seems however we entirely concur that you are a disingenuous tribal deadhead

Blackburn - "I know of not one example of an opposition party losing a by-election or a vote as big as the London Mayoral contest and going to win the General Election afterwards"

This is what Sibaroni said. For your information, Labour lost the Newbury By-Election (they finished 3rd) and won the next election.
Sibaroni has since clarified that he meant an opposition party that already holds the seat losing a By-Election. two entirely different things. I have accepted his clarification.

But it's a meaningless question. I can't - in my notes - see any By-Election in UK history where the opposition - and not the GOVERNMENT/RULING PARTY - are the target of a protest vote.

Sibaroni has asked a question where they are NO historial trends, evidence, facts etc etc.

Sibaroni - are you a lawyer? To lose a By_election means not to win it? To lose a football game means not to win it or draw it? Or is losing a football game only when you are 2-0 up and lose it 3-2???

You have surpassed yourself. I have never heard of so much nonsense in all my life.

I don't care either. You asked a question which has no relevance. If you are the standard of lawyers we have in this country then god help every single one of us!!!!

Pass clay a shovel

Everyone of this forum agrees that your are a brown nose Blackburn.

Try answering my question.

Clay - it just is common parlance in politics.  I am not surprisd that this is news to you.

can't - in my notes - see any By-Election in UK history where the opposition - and not the GOVERNMENT/RULING PARTY - are the target of a protest vote.

I can.  The first that springs to mind was Bermondsey.  Labour, in opposition, lost.  And got murdered at the subsequent General Election.

Those notes of yours - did they take long to prepare?

Sibaroni - you are making a complete fool of yourself. Bermondsey does not illustrate your point in the slightest. Labour have lost seats to SNP and Plaid in By-Elections and Libs have lost By-Elections vice versa.

The only stat I could find was SNP losing a By-Election to Labour yet still winning the Scottish Election.

Before I forget, was Bermondsey the By-Election where the Lib Dems played the Anti-gay card against Peter Tatchell when their candidate was Simon Hughes, who horror or horrors is GAY!!!!!!!!!!
What a truly disgusting bunch of chancers those Lib Dums are

clay the point is and the point remains, opposition parties do lose by-elections.  But they have never gone on to win the subsequent General Election.

Until you simply accept that FACT (I put in capitals because that is how you think it spelt) you will continue to look ridiculous.  Which is fine by me.

THE LONDON ASSEMBLY elections and votes are FAR MORE important reflection of the state of British politics anyway IN LONDON GIVEN THAT both the main protaganists are somewhat shambolic imbeciles....

Sibaorni - no one had disputed that opposition parties lose by-elections. Bradford was a protest vote, against the Labour Party who held the seat and are in opposition. Unique.

Bermondsey is still held by the same Lib Dem MP nearly 30 years later. Hardly a protest vote. And As I pointed out regarding the circumstances of the Bermondsey By-Election.

I'm afraid you are wrong

sibaroni     01 May 12 14:55 
clay the point is and the point remains, opposition parties do lose by-elections.  But they have never gone on to win the subsequent General Election.

Until you simply accept that FACT (I put in capitals because that is how you think it spelt) you will continue to look ridiculous.  Which is fine by me.

You are in REALITY referring to The Lib Dems....

AND THEY WILL NEVER WIN A GENERAL ELECTION in fact ONE DOUBTS THEY WILL SURVIVE CLEGG and his shameful opportunism!