Politics
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
The interesting political race right now seems to be for the GOP VP spot. I consider Rubio the clear favourite (as do many), because he is popular in Florida, because he has appeal to the "base", and because he could cut into the Republican deficit with Latinos. However, Romney would be wise to wait, and possibly select someone from a more critical swing state, if polls suggests Florida is leaning Republican anyway.
However, I am much more certain about who will not be VP (among those with reasonable odds, I don't care about Donald Trump, Herman Cain et al., who have no chance but are also at 1000:1 to lay).
Rand Paul - that would only make sense because Ron Paul has some delegates, but this would be exactly the kind of deal-making that looks bad to voters. Rand Paul is inexperienced, and many will see him as not trustworthy as potential Commander in Chief. He would bring his own organisation to the Romney campaign, but they won't like that. And on many issues, he is further to the right than Romney needs to be in the general election. Romney will likely do something to please the Libertarians, if he has to, but not put Rand Paul on the ticket. Chance 1-2%
Rick Santorum - him on the ticket would be even worse than Rand Paul. He is seen by many as extreme, has been highly critical of Romney, including strong personal attacks, and does not appeal to a different demographic group like Rubio; he even went out of his way to alienate Latinos (in Puerto Rico) and African Americans ("welfare for black people" - "oh no, I said blah people"). He is from a swing state, but he has lost there badly, so that won't help. Chance < 1%.
Also worth noting is the spread between Joe Biden as the next VP, and democrats winning the presidential election - that spread is considerably higher than between Obama as next president, and the democrats winning. Do you think there is a reasonable chance Obama replaces Biden before the election? I don't think Biden adds much to the ticket, to be honest, but I also think replacing him could be seen as a betrayal, or as a tactical move (for example, if he choses to replace him with a woman, in case the GOP VP pick is female, or with a Latino if Romney choses Rubio, etc.).
P.S: My apologies for cross-posting here, but I thought this warrants a new thread...
http://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/28904955/us-2012-presidential-race-and-primaries---my-bets
However, I am much more certain about who will not be VP (among those with reasonable odds, I don't care about Donald Trump, Herman Cain et al., who have no chance but are also at 1000:1 to lay).
Rand Paul - that would only make sense because Ron Paul has some delegates, but this would be exactly the kind of deal-making that looks bad to voters. Rand Paul is inexperienced, and many will see him as not trustworthy as potential Commander in Chief. He would bring his own organisation to the Romney campaign, but they won't like that. And on many issues, he is further to the right than Romney needs to be in the general election. Romney will likely do something to please the Libertarians, if he has to, but not put Rand Paul on the ticket. Chance 1-2%
Rick Santorum - him on the ticket would be even worse than Rand Paul. He is seen by many as extreme, has been highly critical of Romney, including strong personal attacks, and does not appeal to a different demographic group like Rubio; he even went out of his way to alienate Latinos (in Puerto Rico) and African Americans ("welfare for black people" - "oh no, I said blah people"). He is from a swing state, but he has lost there badly, so that won't help. Chance < 1%.
Also worth noting is the spread between Joe Biden as the next VP, and democrats winning the presidential election - that spread is considerably higher than between Obama as next president, and the democrats winning. Do you think there is a reasonable chance Obama replaces Biden before the election? I don't think Biden adds much to the ticket, to be honest, but I also think replacing him could be seen as a betrayal, or as a tactical move (for example, if he choses to replace him with a woman, in case the GOP VP pick is female, or with a Latino if Romney choses Rubio, etc.).
P.S: My apologies for cross-posting here, but I thought this warrants a new thread...
http://community.betfair.com/politics/go/thread/view/94150/28904955/us-2012-presidential-race-and-primaries---my-bets
Show More
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539