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TheChaser
25 Jan 13 00:45
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Date Joined: 23 May 12
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Replies: 74
By:
Ovalman.
When: 25 Jan 13 11:32
I have 350,000 hands stored on my PC but I play a lot of Limit Poker so I rarely get the chance to be all in on a hand.

In total I have 14,693 all in hands, the stats say 50.00% of all races won - 50% expected.

There's the proof the the RNG is straight, now stop posting threads because you had a bad beat or 2.
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 12:28
Might have to start limits then mate , but im telling you the tournament all ins are very very strange.I won a tournament since this post and as soon as i hit last table i became chip leader and won every hand i played basically.
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 12:31
click my poker then you will see registered tournaments
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 12:31
scrap last post
By:
dazmacccccc
When: 25 Jan 13 15:57
i decided to play a bit on the new ipoker betfair and saw some insane hands in a short space of time,im not one for these theorys but in the allin pre hands if a player had say 3 outs you werent surprised to see it hitting,also saw 3 players hitting a set in 1 hand,anyways even if this is just variances ive seen enuf to put me off leaving the site i curently play at to come back to betfair
By:
chipfire227
When: 25 Jan 13 18:46
I posted 15 hands from a random FT I was on recently where the short stack was all in vs a bigger stack, often the chip leader, and the short stack won every one,including cracking AA with junk.

People just see what they want to see.

Plenty of us have posted evidence over hundreds of thousands of hands showing the long term trends are exactly what you would expect. So far I've seen zero evidence over similar size samples to suggest it isnt.
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 25 Jan 13 18:53
The evidence is dozens of different people saying the same thing.Big stack wipes out everything late in tournament play.

Cannot be denied, happens most tournaments.  Are people blind or do they not want to admit it?
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 25 Jan 13 18:56
Its actually standard play here to push all in with big stack no matter what cards you have or what stack you are against.

RNG my arse
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 20:04
Next time someone makes last table give us tournament id and we will all go watch
By:
Ovalman.
When: 25 Jan 13 22:00
AA v any other pair is roughly 80% fav. but we only remember the times we lose with them. 4/1 shots win all the time so why cry over them. We don't remember the times we raise and get a walk or win without a showdown. The simple fact is if we're all in pre flop then we will lose 1 time in 5.

Further to my stats above, when I was 80%+ favourite in a hand I've won 83.4% of the time when my expected value was 84.1% in 375 hands. I'm ever so slightly below my expected win rate but that's good enough to convince me there's nothing wrong with the RNG. That's not a big sample BTW but remember I play limit.

To those that say it's juiced then please show me your stats that prove otherwise. Bet you don't even save hand histories.
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 22:02
AA wins 5/4 for you , well you are luckier than me mate.AA 8 times for me in 6 days and i won 1 hand on them
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 22:02
4/5 for you sorry
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 22:06
Me AA other raises all in i have 3k left in tourney so i go all in to his 8ish he has Q10

out comes 7 9 8 5 6

my first all in and placed about 40th in free roll
Laugh

the fact is there is always top hands out.its to keep the fish chasing hands
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 22:12
Ok this one just happened and in  my favour lol

Me Kh 5h my blind

player b calls me

flop 3s 8h 2h

only 700 chips in tourney left i go all in (why not its pot luck) i hope for flush

player b calls and shows a k

turn 4 spade then ace spade ..I have run Laugh I bet the guy thinks its juiced after i am giving it the big ones lol
By:
chipfire227
When: 25 Jan 13 22:35
Yr wasting your time Oval mate, I stopped reading at freeroll.
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 23:41
so freeroll is different ? why would anyone that is actually any good at poker play for cash before testing the waters?


you think id pump money in a game when the free rolls are bad beat city

all games should be equal
By:
Ovalman.
When: 25 Jan 13 23:41
I want to keep them in the game Cool
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 23:43
so you admit free rolls are different ?

so this makes every level different , stick your random number mate , its juiced up
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 23:44
@ oval , ive not transferred a dime but i had $5.67 in my account lol

so keep me all you like but your losing if you came up against me
By:
TheChaser
When: 25 Jan 13 23:50
i have came to the conclusion the people who think its random are the ones who have never played at a real table
By:
TheChaser
When: 26 Jan 13 02:32
me 1095 chips

a7

200 blind he calls then 7 2 7  flop ,all in after a few bets he has, 75, then k2 ,so split pot 1430 each

very next hand

me

q10 few raises me him 150 each then 10 4 3,me 750 ,he raise 1500 me all in  total he calls a9 bang ace then 4
By:
TheChaser
When: 26 Jan 13 02:34
big chip stack cleaned again


you need to gain the lead to have a chance in the first few hands
By:
chipfire227
When: 26 Jan 13 12:55
There are now enough players played enough hands and run it through sophisticated enough software for it to be proven beyond any doubt the games run to EV. Not the networks, the players themselves. Not a single player with a big enough sample has proven otherwise. Not one.

I could find you dozens of people who think the holocaust and 9/11 was a hoax.It doesn't make them right. Frankly anyone who thinks its r1gg3d on the basis of a couple of hundred games should just stop playing. And stop posting onpoker forums making idiots of themselves.
By:
Homer Simpson
When: 27 Jan 13 08:20
In live games people have the decency and sense to fold second pair or unlikely draws, unless they are TonyG, so the randomness isn't tested.
By:
Ovalman.
When: 27 Jan 13 12:06
You sure about that Homer? I played live yesterday and they chased every gutshot and runner runner under the sun.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Jan 13 13:08
All in nearly 15000 times out 350000 seems a hell of alot for limit poker, thats almost every 20 hands and you are all in? And as for saying that 4/1 shots win all the time, how many times does a 4/1 shot win in a 2 runner race? ie tennis, snooker or football? i would say pocket aces lose alot more often than any of these sports where the underdog is 4/1. Ive only ever played on Ladjokes poker site, and it seemed that the odds didnt stack up correctly to me, so i soon left. Give me a live game any day, and not something where a computer chip call the shots.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Jan 13 13:10
I meant the horses, not football as thats a 3 runner race. Note to self, read what you have wrote before postingGrin
By:
chipfire227
When: 27 Jan 13 13:56
A 4/1 shot will win a two runner horse race 20% of the time.If it didn't there would be no bookmakers. Hope this helps.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Jan 13 14:15
After reading a few of the topics on the poker forum, i made it 1.01 for you to be the first to reply, its seems that you are never too far away from the refresh button. And thank you very much for maths lesson.
By:
chipfire227
When: 27 Jan 13 14:31
As well as reading what you have written yourself before posting, you might want to read what other people have written.

A maths lesson AND a comprehension lesson, all in under two hours. You don't get that on chit-chat.
By:
Ovalman.
When: 27 Jan 13 14:54
All in nearly 15000 times out 350000 seems a hell of alot for limit poker, thats almost every 20 hands and you are all in? And as for saying that 4/1 shots win all the time, how many times does a 4/1 shot win in a 2 runner race? ie tennis, snooker or football? i would say pocket aces lose alot more often than any of these sports where the underdog is 4/1. Ive only ever played on Ladjokes poker site, and it seemed that the odds didnt stack up correctly to me, so i soon left. Give me a live game any day, and not something where a computer chip call the shots.

It's counting my games from NL as well, you generally can't be all in pre flop AA v's an under pair in Limit unless you've 1BB or less in your stack.

A 4/1 shot will win 20% of the time. Bookies of course set odds unfairly (and how they make their money) so it will probably be wrong odds in the first place.

I've given the proof, take it if you want but I know for a FACT that the RNG is true and everyone is on a level playing field. If you lose consistently then you are the problem.

I play with a guy live who's pretty good, he plays a good aggressive game and he's good at reading people. He loses loads online though. I watched his game and he was chasing every flush and straight draws when the chips were low and it's a leak in his game. He makes up for it live by being able to read people but online it's killing him. We all have leaks, there's a style to combat every player to beat them and why it's so hard to make a bot that will play perfectly.

As for your live game, I bet you don't keep records and while when you ask anyone how they do playing poker, the answer invariably is they win money or break even at the game. Without records however you don't know where you stand. (I'm -£35 from live games this year but I'm sure I'll turn over a profit by the end of the year)
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Jan 13 15:04
Ive had look through sir, all i can see is you trying to be the voice of reason on every thread. It seems like you have something to say on everyones post, yet the last thread that you started was something to do with your dog going all in on a hand for you. You sound patronising and condescending on most threads, and it would appear you think you are the next big thing, i look forward to reading your forthcoming poker book. Enjoy the holidays the lads on here pay for, for you and your family, and i hope the endless hours wasted on here each week/month/year are worth it.
By:
chipfire227
When: 27 Jan 13 15:54
Betfair pay me £50 every time I post on here. I get a bonus £10 every time I am the voice of reason, £10 every time I am patronising, and £20 every time I point out an idiot.

These threads are very profitable for me.

The kids are off skiing in a fortnight, I will pass  on your regards.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 27 Jan 13 16:35
What a piste taker.
By:
chipfire227
When: 27 Jan 13 17:34
"Ive only ever played on Ladjokes poker site, and it seemed that the odds didnt stack up correctly to me, so i soon left."

So by your own admission you have minimal experience of online poker, but feel qualifified to diss people with over 350,000 hand histories on their database ? You also come onto a poker forum in an attempt to persuade people not to play poker, and then get upset when people take the p1ss out of you.

What were you expecting, all of us to agree with you and quit ?  Laugh
By:
Irish_Celtic
When: 27 Jan 13 22:52
He resorted to allegations of child abuse the last time he lost an arugment on here .Thats the calibre of person you are

dealing with.Also blames his dog when he makes a donk of himself .Woof Woof.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 28 Jan 13 08:52
I am a poor poker player Chipfire, im also terrible at football too, yet i enjoy watching both, therefore i think i can have an opinion,by your logic, would i be wrong in saying a footballer had a bad game? or that a certain team are sh1te? As a master of poker yourself, do you think that being all in, in limit/no limit poker, nearly every 20 hands sounds far too often? because i certainly do, and as Ovalman said, there would have been times when he could not get all his chips in because of the limits, so i would guess that his all in percentage would in fact be higher, if it was possible to. I was definately not trying to get people to quit playing poker, that was you putting your little twist on my words to try and sound clever. And as for getting upset by a bit piss take in an annonymous forum, you couldnt be more wrong. Making allegations of child abuse however, that is low.
By:
chipfire227
When: 28 Jan 13 12:03
Its actually nearer every 24 hands but I think we have established maths is not your strong point. I also fail to see any connection between maths and football. I have played over half a million hands. Databases record hands where there is a showdown, so if I am sat at a 10 player table in a game I personally dont have to be involved in that hand to record the players hole cards and the outcome. Even if a player elects to muck at the conclusion of the hand, the hand history will reveal their holding.
In the latter stages of STT and MTT games there will be a showdown regularly due to increasing blind levels. It is not uncommon for there to be all in shoves for 15-20 plays in a row and often more than that.
Will there be an all in pre flop confrontation more than once every 24 hands in a Turbo STT for example ? Of course there will, only a complete and utter imbecile would argue otherwise. 
In terms of the 80% quotation you need to bear in mind that is a stat for AA vs an underpair where all chips go in pre-flop. Obviously there are stronger hands you could hold against AA such as 78 suited, and obviously the chips dont always go in pre flop, especially in games involving players of a higher standard.
Even if you completely ignore my stats and Ovalmans stats player databases involving many millions of hands have been published and  thoroughly examined time and time again, and not one has thrown up any evidence to support your claims, which are based upon what ? Absolutely nothing other than a few games on another site. 
As for your mate the Internet Troll God only knows what drives people like that to do what they do for £0.00 per hour. They clearly have mental health issues.
By:
shudacuda
When: 28 Jan 13 12:45
TheChaser
i have came to the conclusion the people who think its random are the ones who have never played at a real table
============================================================================================================

Chaser get real.
2 nights ago,playing live at the casino on a flop of a109 rainbow,i bet a hefty amount with 99 and had already raised preflop.This guy calls and shouts for a heart,turn 2 of hearts.

Imove all in and he says he has 2 hearts and asks if i want him to call.Of course i tell him to call and bingo he hits the river heart and shows 85 hearts.

Was i mad,of course not.Its numpties like this that allow you to win at poker long term.

Because he called on the flop with no draw and hits runner runner hearts,is live poker ****?
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