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harter
24 Jun 12 00:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 775 | Blogger: harter's blog
The percentages showed him at 1% after the flop meaning he hit the only 2 outs on the turn/river. Happens here WAY TO OFTEN!!

TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T5-250965845-19
played at "Table #1" for USD TC from 2012-06-23 23:49 until 2012-06-23 23:50



Seat 3: maral9 (1,915 in chips) 
Seat 6: restamages13 (2,095 in chips) 
Seat 8: alfonso0000 (2,630 in chips) 
Seat 10: harkley (860 in chips) 



ANTES/BLINDS
restamages13 posts small blind (75), alfonso0000 posts big blind (150),

PRE-FLOP
harkley raises to 860 and is all-in, maral9 folds, restamages13 folds, alfonso0000 calls 860.

FLOP [board cards: 9S,6C,6D]


TURN [board cards: 9S,6C,6D,8S]


RIVER [board cards: 9S,6C,6D,8S,7D]

SHOWDOWN
harkley shows [ 6S,AD ]
alfonso0000 shows [ 5S,KH ]
alfonso0000 wins 1,795.



SUMMARY
Dealer: maral9
Pot: 1,795
maral9, loses 0
restamages13, loses 75
alfonso0000, bets 860, collects 1,795, net 935
harkley, loses 860
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Report harter June 24, 2012 1:02 AM BST
If there's any consolation the moron then called an all in before the flop with 8-Q offsuit and lost.
Report garybet. June 24, 2012 9:55 AM BST
hit the only 2 outs on the turn/river.


Turn is 8s, so  which two of the remaining three eights are you saying are no good to him ?
River is the 7d, which two of the remaining three sevens are no good ?
Report glub June 24, 2012 11:55 AM BST
two outer, he meant runner runner
Report lawslaw June 24, 2012 12:45 PM BST
What is this garbage about runner runner? You make it sound like the money went in and he was 1%!!! Fact is the money went in pre so it is irrelevant what the odds where after each street.

The guy was getting the odds to call the short stack also. If he thinks his K rag is going to be around 40% with the amount of blinds already in the pot then it is a easy enough call.
Report Ovalman. June 24, 2012 2:19 PM BST
That's a common quote from a losing player (not suggesting you are harter BTW) but the "****" brigade only see what they want to see. They push all in AKo when the blinds are 10/20 and get called by QQ, the flop comes AK9, turn, 5, river Q and then cry about the 5% river. It doesn't matter what the odds are on the river, the only thing that matters are the odds when the chips went in, in this case (I'm guessing odds) you're a 46/54% dog.
Report harter June 25, 2012 2:54 AM BST
OK how's this one then for another clueless mooron getting paid off?

TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T5-251217192-13
played at "Table #3" for USD TC from 2012-06-25 01:46 until 2012-06-25 01:47



Seat 1: elgolea (965 in chips) 
Seat 2: MAKAROS100 (6,910 in chips) 
Seat 3: harkley (1,625 in chips) 
Seat 4: wllt (3,165 in chips) 
Seat 5: alec_eiffe62 (1,115 in chips) 
Seat 6: lcvgd-rj (4,595 in chips) 
Seat 7: Selu12 (1,640 in chips) 
Seat 8: feithles1986 (1,605 in chips) 
Seat 9: stefan76_rwa (1,675 in chips) 
Seat 10: AB173 (2,825 in chips) 



ANTES/BLINDS
Selu12 posts small blind (75), feithles1986 posts big blind (150),

PRE-FLOP
stefan76_rwa folds, AB173 folds, elgolea folds, MAKAROS100 folds, harkley raises to 450, wllt folds, alec_eiffe62 folds, lcvgd-rj folds, Selu12 folds, feithles1986 raises to 1,605 and is all-in, harkley calls 1,605.

FLOP [board cards: 7C,AD,KH]


TURN [board cards: 7C,AD,KH,8H]


RIVER [board cards: 7C,AD,KH,8H,7H]


SHOWDOWN
feithles1986 shows [ 8S,7S ]
harkley shows [ KS,AC ]
feithles1986 wins 3,285.



SUMMARY
Dealer: lcvgd-rj
Pot: 3,285
elgolea, loses 0
MAKAROS100, loses 0
harkley, loses 1,605
wllt, loses 0
alec_eiffe62, loses 0
lcvgd-rj, loses 0
Selu12, loses 75
feithles1986, bets 1,605, collects 3,285, net 1,680
stefan76_rwa, loses 0
AB173, loses 0
Report lawslaw June 25, 2012 3:09 AM BST
LOL 40% rule again Excited 78s is a lovely speccy hand Mischief

He repops you knowing that if you call and have 2 overs he is still 40% at least, and many hands exist where it is a flip or he is ahead. In fact 78s is in better shape if you had AA than KK is!

The question is....why you called that shove with AKo?

I think I prefer the play by the 78s here much more than I like the call by AKo
Report harter June 25, 2012 3:13 AM BST
I raised 3x bb and he pushed all in. He was showing a lot of bluffs so it seemed like an easy call. On flop I had 2 pair aces and kings he had pair of 7s so what were the odds of the only runner-runner to win? As I said it happens here all the time which is why people push all in with 7-8.+
Report harter June 25, 2012 3:16 AM BST
Mind you every poker site is the same. I find when I play at a land based casino the play is much more according to the rules - and it doesn't matter if it's a 5-10 sit n go or a $100 buy in tournament. I guess because you don't actually have to show your face you can make a moronic call and when you bust online there isn't the same shame as there is playing live.
Report lawslaw June 25, 2012 3:20 AM BST
It is irrelevant what happens on the different streets, the only odds that count is when the money goes in, and he was getting just over 40%.

Your mistake is thinking you are ever going to be a massive favourite with AKo. If you run it 20 times the law of averages if we round it up slightly say you will lose 9 of them.

Maybe you should stop calling these plays moronic and start working out there plays and possible reasoning behind it. Many players would consider your play OOP the poor one!
Report harter June 25, 2012 3:21 AM BST
Besides I guess what I'm really trying to say is that if the odds are showing 1% then the runner-runner should only hit 1 out of every 100 hands. I'd be curious to see if anyone ever ran a simulation of hands played that went to a showdown after the flop and one person was 99% and the other 1% to see if that is indeed the case. My hunch is it would be substantially higher.
Report harter June 25, 2012 3:24 AM BST
Again lawslaw I see what you're saying but the probabilities are listed at Ongame after each street. I'm just curious to know if the hands play out according to the percentages that are listed and if not then why not?
Report lawslaw June 25, 2012 3:49 AM BST
As previous stated, the only percentage that matters is when the money goes in not 'in running'.  So if you look at AA v KK over a million hand sample I am pretty sure AA would be winning just over 80% of the time.

Human nature makes us see only what we want to see rather than a fuller picture. If we feel we are running bad then we seem only to remember the bad beats and not the s*ckouts.

I look at my history and can use the coinflips on here as an example. I thought I lost a lot of money on them last year because I could only remember the times I used to lose $200+ an hour but decided to check out my results a few weeks back. Coinflips should over a large enough sample give you results of winning and losing around 50% as there is absolutely no edge to them.

So for $20 coin flips I played 3,814 my total buy in was $80,094 and my total winnings was $80,280 so I am just a few BIs up over 3,814 games. Almost Identical patterns exist for another 7,500+ coinflips at $5 and $10.

So personally even though it felt I was getting hammered on these games, the stats tell me I actually made a tiny profit and where a coinflip should be 50/50 I have indeed won about 50.2% of them over a sample of around 11,250.

I for one have no problems with the RNG that Ongame use as to me it seems to run fairly evenly......long term.
Report Helmuthian Folds June 25, 2012 10:36 AM BST
And TBF Harter he didn't need runner runner in that last hand.

The 8 is not relevant as the 3rd 7 wins the hand on it's own so he was 13% at the turn with the runner runner 8 possibility as well!

HTH.
Report Ovalman. June 25, 2012 12:13 PM BST
I ran the races report on HEM2 on 250,000 hands and they matched almost exactly to what they should do for a truly random RNG. I have never questioned the RNG on any site, if I lose, I look at my own play.

I think your getting some good advice here Harter but stop banging your head when you get a beat and just move on.
Report harter June 25, 2012 1:37 PM BST
Fair enough. Whenever I'm playing and I have say AK and flop.comes say 28A rainbow, invariably someone will move all in, I'll call and they'll show something like 3-5. Sure enouh they'll hit the 4 on the river and type "lol", "in your face" or similar and I'll always type back something like "it doesn't matter because there's no way you can win anyway' and in the end I'll.prove right almost every time - you can't suck out a river every hand.
Report Bishy June 25, 2012 5:53 PM BST
1% outs on bf r really 20%
Report chipfire227 June 25, 2012 7:42 PM BST
I've said it load of times on here, its illegal to fold 2 suited cards in some countries. This is in a $30 STT where you might expect joined up thinking :

TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, T5-251382943-9
played at "Table #1" for USD TC from 2012-06-25 18:36 until 2012-06-25 18:37



Seat 1: 48ght (1,550 in chips) 
Seat 5: pokerf6969 (1,440 in chips) 
Seat 7: czarnyking (1,605 in chips) 
Seat 8: sqaul88 (1,490 in chips) 
Seat 9: pohodahav (1,405 in chips) 
Seat 10: chipfire227 (1,510 in chips) 



ANTES/BLINDS
chipfire227 posts small blind (15), 48ght posts big blind (30),

PRE-FLOP
pokerf6969 calls 30, czarnyking folds, sqaul88 folds, pohodahav folds, chipfire227 calls 30, 48ght checks.

FLOP [board cards: 8C,8H,3C]
chipfire227 bets 45, 48ght folds, pokerf6969 raises to 90, chipfire227 calls 90.

TURN [board cards: 8C,8H,3C,TC]
chipfire227 bets 125, pokerf6969 raises to 250, chipfire227 raises to 1,390 and is all-in, pokerf6969 calls 1,320 and is all-in.

RIVER [board cards: 8C,8H,3C,TC,9S]


SHOWDOWN
chipfire227 shows [ JC,KC ]
pokerf6969 shows [ TS,3S ]
chipfire227 wins 2,910
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