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eyebee
22 Apr 12 22:32
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Date Joined: 12 Jul 05
| Topic/replies: 193 | Blogger: eyebee's blog
Sorry guys, new to poker

Me 22

Board  Flop: 4 spades, 3 spades, 2 clubs
          Turn: 3 clubs

Both all in and he flips over A4 clubs

The river comes down a 5 clubs

Whats this % to hit on the river??

Thanks

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Replies: 10
By:
The Klup
When: 22 Apr 12 23:29
The probability of spiking the 5 of clubs was 1 in 44

Hope this helps
By:
The Klup
When: 22 Apr 12 23:32
Of course if a 3 or a 4 comes on the river he wins as well so he had a total of 5 outs.
By:
The Klup
When: 22 Apr 12 23:32
Of course if a 3 or a 4 comes on the river he wins as well so he had a total of 5 outs.
By:
eyebee
When: 22 Apr 12 23:42
Cheers Klups
By:
gnashersblackpool
When: 23 Apr 12 00:13
5 outs 11% after turn.
By:
Ovalman.
When: 23 Apr 12 14:04
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

But you can calculate them yourself if you count how many "outs" he has (cards that will improve his hand)

If any 4 or 3 comes he has a higher full house than you while if the 5 clubs comes he has a straight flush. If any club comes along he has a flush but as you already have a full house, the flush is no good for him. So you count his outs, there is 1 x 5c, 2 x 4's (4d & 4h) and 2 x 3's (3d & 3h) left in the deck giving 5 outs in total. You don't count whether those cards may have been dealt to anyone else at the table, you only use the information you have.

There is a simple formula whereby to calculate his odds as a percentage, you multiply his outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn. As you are at the turn stage you multiply his 5 outs by 2 and you get 10% therefore he is roughly a 10/1 shot to hit the cards he needs. For a more accurate % you subtract 1% from the flop or add 1% on the turn.

In this case as you are at the turn stage so we add 1%. He is 10% + 1% or 11% which is closer to 9/1 to hit. Running the hand through cardplayer and you will see that his actual odds are 11.36% which is pretty close to our calculation.

He got lucky but play this hand enough times and you will win 89% of the time so don't beat yourself over it.

You can use this to work out odds v chips in the middle and use it to work out whether you should call or fold. It was a very difficult concept for me to grasp until 3 years ago but now it's 2nd nature and it will help you win cash in the long run.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

There's my good deed done for the day and it's good to see a few poker threads started instead of the usual Ongaming is riggged posts.
By:
eyebee
When: 23 Apr 12 19:45
Thanks ovalman. Thats very much appreciated
By:
Bishy
When: 23 Apr 12 23:49
Eye it depends on what site ur playing.
By:
eyebee
When: 24 Apr 12 22:21
Stars, so didnt really shock me
By:
Ovalman.
When: 22 May 12 00:20
ttt for Joker
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