Poker
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
is it ev+ for me to call here ?
5 handed and at the stage where first or second to act is shoving every hand, and everyone else folds .at the time i felt the call was justified on the basis im ahead a lot of the time and if i win the hand i cash, but i've had second thoughts overnight.
***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 655376727 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $55 Buy-in + $5.50 Entry Fee, Level:5 Blinds(75/150-(no ante)) - Saturday, February 20, 23:57:47 GMT 2010
D2N Turbo NL Hold'em $60.50 #3849306
Table 1 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: SeaBreeze ( 1,002.50 )
Seat 2: tcmoreira ( 1,293.75 )
Seat 4: chipfire227 ( 1,478.75 )
Seat 5: hongkongj ( 1,320 )
Seat 6: craftylad ( 905 )
Tourney Level:5 Blinds(75/150-(no ante))
tcmoreira posts small blind [75]
chipfire227 posts big blind [150]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to chipfire227 [ Kh, Ah ]
hongkongj folds
craftylad folds
SeaBreeze goes all-in
SeaBreeze raises to [1,002.50]
tcmoreira folds
5 handed and at the stage where first or second to act is shoving every hand, and everyone else folds .at the time i felt the call was justified on the basis im ahead a lot of the time and if i win the hand i cash, but i've had second thoughts overnight.
***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 655376727 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $55 Buy-in + $5.50 Entry Fee, Level:5 Blinds(75/150-(no ante)) - Saturday, February 20, 23:57:47 GMT 2010
D2N Turbo NL Hold'em $60.50 #3849306
Table 1 6-max (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of active players : 5
Seat 1: SeaBreeze ( 1,002.50 )
Seat 2: tcmoreira ( 1,293.75 )
Seat 4: chipfire227 ( 1,478.75 )
Seat 5: hongkongj ( 1,320 )
Seat 6: craftylad ( 905 )
Tourney Level:5 Blinds(75/150-(no ante))
tcmoreira posts small blind [75]
chipfire227 posts big blind [150]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to chipfire227 [ Kh, Ah ]
hongkongj folds
craftylad folds
SeaBreeze goes all-in
SeaBreeze raises to [1,002.50]
tcmoreira folds
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 46
|
By:
its a call 4 me.
|
|
By:
Definite fold, no question about it.
|
|
By:
call def
|
|
By:
Trust me, its a 100% fold.
|
|
By:
initial thoughts were if i fold im left with 1328 *****5 handed. with 3 to cash id say my likelyhood of cashing is 62%.
if i call and win im about 90% likely to cash. possibly higher as i take out the most dangerous player at the table. if i call and lose id say i probably cash about 20% of the time. maybe slightly more. |
|
By:
thats my maths in 20 seconds of thinking time so possibly well off the mark btw.
|
|
By:
It's a call for me
|
|
By:
and when i say dangerous i mean the most aggressive rather than the most competent.
|
|
By:
if your folding what hand are you going actually play??? you cant just sit and wait for the nuts
|
|
By:
Pushing any two with fold equity is far better than calling a random hand with AK.
|
|
By:
AK sooted ;-)
|
|
By:
Makes no difference, pushing with 72o is better than calling with AK, sooted or not.
|
|
By:
fancy a hu game chop?
|
|
By:
i will go all in every hand and you fold :-)
|
|
By:
I'd certainly be happy to play you in a d2n.
Unfortunately the site I play on doesn't have them. |
|
By:
If you put it in to SngWiz it is a clear call even if you assume a tight shoving range (Seabreeze is probably shoving about 60% of the time here)
|
|
By:
chicken chop suey
|
|
By:
Does that take into account the fact that it is a d2n rather than normal stt, Sven?
|
|
By:
Yes and i entered the chipstacks exactly.
|
|
By:
just shows your wrong choppy
|
|
By:
Well I still disagree. I'm folding there every time.
|
|
By:
do you lose a lot chop?
|
|
By:
Nope, back in the good old days of crypto (RIP), I played d2ns with 10% cake and my ROI was 17%.
Hope this helps. |
|
By:
thanks sven, just needed to know if my gut instinct was right from a mathematic perspective.
much appreciated. |
|
By:
betfix poker , lol anything is a call , best play hardly ever win , lol ,its like bingo
|
|
By:
There's more ways to win in this game as Chop points out but its a poor fold imo at this stage considering his aggression. I'd be more wary of him making a flat call or raise at this stage.
|
|
By:
We know he's liable to be pushing close to or exactly any two there, like I say retaining fold equity for your future shoves still makes it a cast iron fold for me.
|
|
By:
its about plus 7% if hes pushing a bigger range than 88+,Ajo+,A10s...then its a call, from read hes obv pushing wider.
|
|
By:
Its 5 handed and you're being blinded away to nothing. Not a hesitation in calling. Only AA and KK have you dominated.
|
|
By:
for the record he had 5 6 clubs.
|
|
By:
With the info u provided this is a fold.
However I wonder whether people really are shoving allin pre at just 75/150 level every hand considering there is no need for this at this blind level/with these stacks just yet. 10 seater game its closer and more situ dependend & would also depend on who shoved, your BB image and what pos the shove came from. Holla |
|
By:
It's close thou btw. which means long term cause ur not gonna get this exact spot so many times, either action isn't really gonna affect ur $$s much unless ur playing like 200 per day or something.
|
|
By:
also if every player on this site is calling shoves from their bb with ak aq aj etc then it's an even easier fold cause within a few hand they are gonna knock eachother out before u even have to do anything.
Got to love the Betfair pokerz ;) |
|
By:
initial thoughts were if i fold im left with 1328 *****5 handed. with 3 to cash id say my likelyhood of cashing is 62%.
if i call and win im about 90% likely to cash. possibly higher as i take out the most dangerous player at the table. if i call and lose id say i probably cash about 20% of the time. maybe slightly more If you reckon you are 62% to cash folding, then I think this is the right move. If he has live cards what are the odds you win? If he has a pair what are the odds win? Fair enough you dominate another Ace. |
|
By:
If all stacks are equal u have 60% chance of cashing, so after BB is lost then 62ish must be about right....
However...that also assumes equal player ability... another thing that sngwiz etc can't take into account.... for a positive ROI player, to ignore your own edge in the game when taking these %ages into account, seems rather careless... too many players forget this imo. In addition to this, I also think that a 10% ROI player, for example, would have an even higher ROI when you then take this exact situation into account... ie if you put a -10% player, a 0% player, a 2% player and a 5% player in your shoes here, their chances of cashing based on each action would vary considerably. So a strong player being in a strong position means his edge is even greater than the bare numbers would suggest. Back to the bare numbers, and given the info, and other comments re. this player, the shoving range is very wide. AKs vs a shoving range this wide is only in average shape compared to your 62% MINIMUM cashing rate based only on the stack/equity calcs. - ROI players should call. + ROI players should fold. Peace and love to all xx |
|
By:
Mavis "Hacksaw" Handbag 21 Feb 16:35
If all stacks are equal u have 60% chance of cashing, so after BB is lost then 62ish must be about right.... However...that also assumes equal player ability... another thing that sngwiz etc can't take into account.... for a positive ROI player, to ignore your own edge in the game when taking these %ages into account, seems rather careless... too many players forget this imo. In addition to this, I also think that a 10% ROI player, for example, would have an even higher ROI when you then take this exact situation into account... ie if you put a -10% player, a 0% player, a 2% player and a 5% player in your shoes here, their chances of cashing based on each action would vary considerably. So a strong player being in a strong position means his edge is even greater than the bare numbers would suggest. Back to the bare numbers, and given the info, and other comments re. this player, the shoving range is very wide. AKs vs a shoving range this wide is only in average shape compared to your 62% MINIMUM cashing rate based only on the stack/equity calcs. - ROI players should call. + ROI players should fold. Peace and love to all xx Obviously... but if the battery has run out in your calculator, you have misplaced your scissors and can't open the new pack, and your timebank has nearly run out? |
|
By:
^^^ what Mavis said, I summed up much more quickly without wasting all that time ;)
|
|
By:
chop180 21 Feb 16:43
^^^ what Mavis said, I summed up much more quickly without wasting all that time I thought you said fold, go and make a cup of tea and come back when a couple of donks have called, gone out and you've cashed. |
|
By:
interesting spot, I think I call here.
but the way most people (I) play they seem to shove any ace here. and I also think most players do not think as all suggest on this forum. That is they do not think "equity" or chances of cashing. They just see the blinds they want to steal, see a bit of paint and shove. |