Poker
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20k gtd rebuy
35 left
blinds 500/1000
Me - 11,000 *****(in trouble!) BB
SB - 16,000
CO - 14,000
table has been pretty active, CO is abcish player and SB is over agg player (e.g reraises allin to steal out of the blinds on level 1 with k6 sooted and seems to open shove a lot of medium pairs). SB has been active
action is folded round to cut off who makes it 4000 to go and SB insta shoves, you have 99 and reraise allin thinking its a great chance to more than double up and you likely have the best hand
plus ev against this type of player?
35 left
blinds 500/1000
Me - 11,000 *****(in trouble!) BB
SB - 16,000
CO - 14,000
table has been pretty active, CO is abcish player and SB is over agg player (e.g reraises allin to steal out of the blinds on level 1 with k6 sooted and seems to open shove a lot of medium pairs). SB has been active
action is folded round to cut off who makes it 4000 to go and SB insta shoves, you have 99 and reraise allin thinking its a great chance to more than double up and you likely have the best hand
plus ev against this type of player?
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Replies: 11
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depends on antes/payout structure/bubble/time of next blind increase/speed blinds increase etc
Original raiser is bad judging by his raise size and could have anything. Reraiser obviously has a hand. I think it has to be +EV, as the original raiser could fold and the most likely scenario is that you are slightly ahead in a race. I am not sure there is much in it though. If structure is pretty flat until top 3/4, or it was late and this was my only table left then I'd be far more likely to push. As I would be if it was turbo, blinds were increading soon etc |
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Call for me
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Or all in which is what i act meant ;)
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payout isn't too flat - first place takes aroun 5.5k based on 20k payout, 2nd 3k, 3rd 2k, 4th 1.6k
bubble wont be due for another 3-4 levels, blinds have just gone up and are 10 mins |
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The 4x open dont think he can fold much, the sb you say is a nutter so iam not sure he has to have a big hand, but you in trouble stck wise i think i call original raiser if he sees monsters under the bed might fold but i wouldnt expect that but even 3 way you need to gamble , iam going with it,with these reads
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come on ffs, this is a total no brainer; only someone who hasnt won an mtt in a year would post this question.
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The key is "... and you likely have the best hand...."
After a raise and a shove, On average your statement is unlikely to be true by any meaningful EV percentage. A fairly large percent of the time you will be 3 way flipping with a mainly polarised EV range of 18% , 31% or 45% Assuming a 3 way pot the cost of your call is about 30% Therefore it is likely to be a fairly EV neutral/ or at best marginally positive call against both villains ranges but you are unlikely to be greater than 45% to win and a fair percentage of the the time you will be 18 or 31% If you wanna flip, then flip |
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*fairly EV neutral/ or marginally positive call
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'If you wanna flip, then flip' - course i wanna flip i have 11 big blinds!
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Its obv the ranges we feel they have make an ev prediction,this is obv chip ev and not $ev.From the ranges i felt were reasonble it came in at 36%,giving a small positive edge.But when we add the 2k they have put in to match your 1k which u lose if you dont call , plus anties prob 3,800 becomes an over lay to your 36% for 30k more.Makes it an easy call, but no so easy to win .
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Thats presuming both call 100% of the time, so the slim chance that the 4xer has had a labotomy and folds x% of times adds futher equty.
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