PNicholls

Kauto and Denman are enjoying themselves out in the field and it's business as usual for Big Buck's. Paul Nicholls provides an update on his top horses.


As I said earlier, in many ways this is a season of the changing of the old guard here at Ditcheat. But I suppose we still have the odd established star here and there, too, even if some of them probably won't be around for much longer.

Of course, there has been a lot of speculation about Kauto Star's future after his Punchestown run. But he is still out enjoying himself in a field with Denman, and we will leave him there for a bit longer while the sun is still shining, though they may both come back in next Monday. There are no plans at all for Kauto at this stage, and won't be until I sit down and talk to Clive.

The plans for Denman are more clear cut after discussions between myself and Paul Barber. The plan is that Denman will have two runs this season, the Lexus and Gold Cup, and Cheltenham will probably be his swansong. When both horses do eventually call it a day, I really would like to keep them together in retirement, wherever that may be, as they love each other's company. But that is obviously a matter for Paul and Clive to discuss and agree upon.

Contrary to what appeared in the Telegraph, Big Buck's has not had a breathing operation. I think I summarized the situation quite well when journalists rang to check on the accuracy of that story.

"It's bollocks," said I.

In fact, the horse of Andy Stewart's that has had a breathing operation is Celestial Halo. As for Big Buck's, it will be business as usual for him this season, with the same targets as in previous years.

Master Minded excites me for the coming season, too, and he will have Georgie back riding him out at home. He will run in the Ascot race he won last season before taking on Long Run in the King George. Obviously the trip is an unknown but the two times we have stepped him up in trip, he has delivered, so we are hopeful; his nine length win over Albertas Run at Aintree certainly opened up options and his class has never been in doubt. But I fully respect Long Run, and I think Philip Hobbs has a couple of serious prospects in Wishfull Thinking and Captain Chris. But I am really looking forward to seeing Master Minded run.

Triumph Hurdle winner Zarkandar is probably the most high profile horse in the yard to have had a breathing operation. He was struggling in that area last season and always made a noise, so let's hope that it has improved him, as second-season hurdlers do tend to struggle historically, with Katchit an honourable exception. He was clearly progressive last season though and is around second favourite for the Champion Hurdle behind Hurricane Fly; options are open for him at this stage, but maybe the Greatwood could be a good starting point.

Our Supreme winner Al Ferof actually comes back into the yard tomorrow. I have him earmarked for a 2m1f at Exeter for his reappearance, though he will probably want 2m4f in time.

Silviniaco Conti is very much the forgotten horse of the hurdling division - he was very impressive when beating Karabak by seven lengths in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot in November, after which I believe Timeform put him up as ante-post bet for the Champion Hurdle. I never truly had him down as a two miler though, and think he is more of a 3m horse. We have yet to decide whether he will go novice chasing but the Ascot race he won last year was worth £50,000 to the winner, so perhaps we will send him there again and consider our options thereafter.

Mon Parrain excited many people towards the end of last season, not least because of his superb jumping, and I agree that he could develop into a top drawer performer. But the fact is that he only won off 133 at Sandown and was beaten four lengths off 149 in the Topham. I have my eye on the Paddy Power Gold Cup for him.

Of the others Aiteen Thirtythree has had his shins pin fired and I will try and get him to the Hennessy; Sanctuaire will go novice chasing and I am going to target Ghizao for the Haldon Gold Cup, all things being well.


To read more Paul Nicholls insight go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

Many of the big names at Ditcheat are in the twilight of their careers but with six new arrivals from Graham Wylie and a host of promising new names there are many reasons to be cheerful and 2011-12 could be a year to remember for Paul and the team...


We always aim to have 20 winners by September 1 and I am very happy with the way that my summer horses have gone, with 17 winners at a strike rate of 33 per cent.

But of course the "real" season doesn't really begin until October and we have been busy upgrading for the challenges that lie ahead.

And challenges certainly do lie ahead, because this season represents a "Changing Of The Guard" for Ditcheat, with some established stars coming towards the end of their careers and a few notable departures from the yard.

In fact, it is the first time I can recall looking at the Gold Cup betting and not having a horse near the top of the market. In fact, Master Minded is my shortest priced horse in the Gold Cup betting (at 18.0 on Betfair) and I honestly have my doubts about his staying 3m2f at Cheltenham (see accompanying story though).

So in many respects we have a new team and generation of horses, and new challenges ahead, so we are possibly where Nicky has been in the past couple of seasons in that he has many established stars now and we have the up and coming youngsters. So this year's Trainers' Championship promises to be a real scrap.

But we never rest on our laurels and past glories here at Ditcheat.

We have spent a considerable six figure sum upgrading our gallops, something that we tend to do every five years. We have completely replaced the Flat gallop with a Martin Collins gel track, and we have put three inches of topping (eco track) on the hill gallop.

We sadly lost Twist Magic last season; Tchico Polos and Tito Bustillo have gone up to Lucinda Russell; Breedsbreeze and The Tother One have gone hunter chasing in Ireland; Taranis has been retired; and Gwanako and Chapoturgeon will be hunter chasing in the spring.

But we have performed 20-odd breathing operations this summer and have 40 new horses in the yard - Irish and English pointers, bumper horses, French recruits and three lovely 3yos - and I have still plenty of orders to fill. And no doubt that I will be aiming to do that at Autueil in September, amongst other areas.

Horses that I would look out for from the English point to point field are Dualla Lord, four from four, and Curtain Raiser and Mendip Express. While there are six I would recommend you put in your notebook from Ireland: Final Gift, St Roque (related to Quito De La Roque of Colm Murphy's), Italian Masters, Likeable Rogue, Rolling Aces and Rocky Creek.

The latter is a full brother to Tell Massini, and Graham Wylie has just sent me six lovely horses as well, in addition to the half share he has in Pacha Du Polder, a winner at Enghien in March, with Andy Stewart.

The six horses from Graham are all rated 130 and over. The most notable is Quwetwo, and the others are Ascendant, Doeslessthanme, Double Expresso, Hold Fast and The Knoxs.

I have other new owners in the yard, too. Robin Geffen, who joint-owned St Leger winner Arctic Cosmos, has kindly sent me Cristal Bonus, a very smart French horse in 2009/10, and now owns Kauto Stone. The latter is a half brother to a certain Kauto Star, and won the same Grade 1 race at Auteuil last year that Long Run did before him.

And we welcome Daryl Jacob in the yard as our number two jockey. Ruby will be back by the start of October but we have plenty of back-up before he returns in Harry Skelton, Ryan Mahon, Nick Scholfield and Ian Popham, as well as the youngsters David Prichard, Harry Derham and Jack Barber. And Noel Fehily, who did so well for us before injury last season, will continued to be used, too.


To read more Paul Nicholls insight go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

Here are my views on our two runners this afternoon:

16.20pm PUNCHESTOWN

EMPIRE LEVANT

Even though he has a bit to find with some of these on form, I see he is trading as the favourite on Betfair and I think he will run really well. He looks fantastic at the moment, the best I have seen him, and he comes here a fresh horse. We deliberately sidestepped Cheltenham but also had to miss Aintree as he trod on a stone and was lame. But he only missed three days work and has been working really well, keeping Kauto Star company for the past three weeks. The course and ground will be ideal for him.


5.30pm PUNCHESTOWN

KAUTO STAR

A lot of people will look at Denman's run at Aintree, and think this will be a race too far for Kauto Star, too. But I don't think that's the case. Obviously you never know for sure, and he has never run in May for me before, but he was mad fresh when schooling last Friday and comes here in great form. I was obviously thrilled with his third in the Gold Cup and a reproduction of that run, or indeed his King George form, would see him go close to winning here. He is actually unbeaten in Ireland and this right-handed galloping track should suit him fine.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

With the jumps season finishing, this will be my last proper column.

I hope you have enjoyed reading it as much as I have working with Betfair these past seven months - and it is good that I have been able to bring you plenty of exclusives throughout the campaign, such as Sanctuaire's breathing operation last week - and of course it helps that I have retained my trainers' title!

On a personal level, I have come a long way this season, entering the 21st century technology age!

Who would have thought that I would finish the 2010-11 campaign with tens of thousands of followers on Twitter and Facebook, and often having an I-pad in tow when going to the races?!

But it's not quite all over yet.

I will be bringing you my summary of the season soon, and my thoughts on my Punchestown runners.

But then I will be going on a couple of short breaks abroad to re-charge my batteries for next season.

I will soon be planning for next season though; you snooze and you lose in this game.

For more racing betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/

At the time of writing , I see an online survey on next week's Bet365 Gold Cup shows that 22 per cent of the voters/punters think Kauto Star will win, and 18 per cent side with Mon Parrain. The pair are priced up at 8/1 and 7/1 respectively by the bookmakers.

Well, I can tell you now that Mon Parrain will almost certainly not be winning, as he almost certainly does not run.

I am still scratching my head as to how he got beat in the Topham. He jumped superbly once again and looked sure to win jumping the last - an opinion I gather was shared with Betfair customers who backed him into as low as 1.04 in-running - but he has been put away for the season. And he will probably be aimed at the Paddy Power Gold Cup next term, all being well.

And I would definitely hold my Sandown bets on Kauto Star, too.

Kauto obviously has the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown on May 4 as another possible target, but nothing will be decided until I sit down with owner Clive Smith. And that is probably a discussion for Sunday morning.

My Grand National runners What a Friend and Niche Market won't be in the field, but other possibles of mine include The Tother One, Gullible Gordon and Meanus Dandy.

For more exclusive articles from Paul Nicholls, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

I imagine many punters will be looking to take on Master Minded on after his performance in the Champion Chase last time - I see he is trading at 6.2 in the early Betfair betting - but if they do they are opposing one of the best horses we have seen in recent decades, so good luck to them!

He was certainly off the bridle and up against it when making an horrendous blunder two out at Cheltenham but, although some may disagree, I still think he may have finished third but for that mistake.

Leading up to that race he had won three from three this season, two in Grade 1 company, and had looked back to his old self after a summer breathing operation. His last visit to Aintree saw him beaten a long way in this race in 2008, but a second-last blunder knocked the stuffing out of him there, so I wouldn't read too much into that.

He may be best fresh, but he has given me no indication at home that he doesn't come here in good form, so let us see how he gets on against Albertas Run and Somersby. If he runs to his best, then they have a job on their hands, and at this stage of his career I think this trip, and further, will suit him much better.

To read Paul's personal preview of all his Aintree Day Two runners, as well as his pair that go at Fontwell, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

Big Buck's brought the house down when winning his third World Hurdle at Cheltenham last month, so let's hope that he can go down the tried and tested route of the past two years and follow up in this race. With a horse like this there isn't much more you can say; namely, he is a superstar and up there with the best I have trained.

Now, there may have been horses in my time here that have been officially rated higher - Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Azertyuiop - but he matches them all for raw talent, and hardness, in my book. And he showed that again at Cheltenham last month; the pace wasn't great so Ruby had him prominent and when he had to find, he did, pulling away again when Grands Crus came to challenge him, idling in victory close home in winning by 1 ¾ lengths.

With the likes of Cross Kennon and Rigour Back Bob so close up, the form cannot be rated highly, but that misses the point; when another horse confronts him, he does not lie down. Just as well when Ruby drops his whip! His phenomenal winning run will probably come to an end at some point - and Grands Crus confirmed at Cheltenham that he is developing into a serious rival, and may be ridden differently here in a bid to beat us - but let's hope it isn't today.

Andy also has Gwanako in the race. After the Cheltenham dawdle, everyone will assume that the horse is in the race to ensure a good pace but let them speculate. He has his finest moment here when winning the Topham in 2008 but admittedly hasn't had things go his way this season, or performed to his best, his fourth at Cheltenham at New Years Day the pick of his efforts. But he takes his chance.

I respect Carlo Brigante and Khyber Kim. The former was a very impressive winner of the Coral Cup and is very progressive, and if Khyber Kim can return to the form of his Champion Hurdle second and Aintree Hurdle win last year then he cannot be readily dismissed. But they have their work cut out here if Big Buck's is firing once again.

To read Paul's personal preview of all his other runners today, including Denman, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

A word of warning for Betfair punters - in fact, three.

The first is that you can't always trust Cheltenham form at Aintree. Admittedly, three horses won at both Festivals last year - Big Buck's, Peddlers Cross and Albertas Run - but you simply never know for sure what running at Cheltenham, the most competitive of racing environments, has taken out of your horse.

Different track, different ground, different day often leads to different results, with the form not standing up.

In addition, you never know what has happened to the horses in between.

And I can reveal here that I have had a couple of minor scares with Big Buck's and Zarkandar this week.

Big Buck's always tends to give me a scare before big races, which is very nice of him. He worked moderately on the Saturday before Cheltenham before coming out and winning his third World Hurdle.

And on Monday and Tuesday he went off his grub, so on Tuesday we gave him a blood test.

Thankfully, it came back fine and he ate up this yesterday, so we are back on track.

I don't know what we would have done had the test come back inconclusive, but luckily it didn't. I could have done without 48 hours of worry, though.

And that is before the problem we have had with Zarkandar.

He has had a bad abscess in his mouth and we have been constantly bathing it. He hasn't missed any work but of course it has been very sore, though he is a tough buggar.

But thank god it burst Tuesday morning, so touch wood it will have done his chances no harm at all.

To win big races at the major Festivals, you can do without even the slightest of setbacks and problems.

To put it into context though, I must stress that both horses have continued to work well throughout the minor scares, and are fine.

But I thought it best to let everyone know before their races.

For more exclusive Paul Nicholls articles throughout the Aintree Festival, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

We have made a decision with Mon Parrain, and he goes for the Topham on the Friday at Aintree.

Everyone knows how much he surprised, and delighted me, in equal measure at Sandown, and he is clearly a very exciting horse.

But for people to talk about him as a Grade 1 horse at this stage is a bit premature, so we have sidestepped the Totesport Bowl on Thursday. At the end of the day he only won a soft handicap off a mark of 133 last time.

Of course he was very impressive in winning by 22 lengths, and most people have remarked about his brilliant jumping there. And when he schooled over the National-type fences here he was again awesome.

So we think the Topham is the right race for him at this stage of his career, and he looks to have a favourite's chance given luck in-running. But it clearly will be a very competitive race.

Elsewhere, I have decided to bypass Aintree with Neptune Collonges - we will aim him at the Scottish National.

And looking further ahead to Punchestown, we will hopefully have a very strong team there too.

Silviniaco Conti has taken a while to come to hand this spring but he goes to Ireland for the three miler, and Tataniano is back in full work now.

Throw in the likes of Kauto Star and Rebel Rebellion (2m4f novices' hurdle), and others doing the Aintree-Punchestown double, and we may have a strong hand there.

For more exclusive Paul Nicholls articles - including his daily previews at 8am on each day of the Grand National meeting, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/

Aintree gets underway on Thursday. Running plans are still to be finalised for a few of my entries but here is my current thinking.

Obviously, we will be giving chapter and verse on all my runners each day at 8am at http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/ during the Aintree meeting, but I thought it would be a good idea to give you my running plans at this stage.

Some are set in stone but quite a few of my horses have multiple entries - and a couple in particular have got me scratching my head - but I have to get them right, and so I may leave the final decision on them until I have studied all the entries.

Thursday

We run both Big Buck's and Gwanako in the opening Grade 1 hurdle, and I think Zarkandar - I see the Triumph runner-up Unaccompanied won at the Curragh - may be my only runner in the juvenile hurdle, though Empire Levant is still a possible.

Denman obviously goes for the Totesport Bowl and I have three others in the race. What a Friend goes in the National, but Mon Parrain has two other entries (Topham, and a handicap on the Saturday). I will have to speak to Mr Hales about Neptune Collonges; ideally he would want plenty of rain, and if he is to get cut in the ground at Aintree then it will be on the Thursday.

Blu Teen is entered in the Fox Hunters' but I suspect he will run in a handicap at Ascot at the weekend, but both Woolcombe Folly and Tchico Polos run in the 2m handicap chase and Ghizao steps up in trip for the Grade 2 2m4f novices' chase.

We have four entries in the 2m4f handicap hurdle but it could be that I rely on just Sire Collonges if he gets in.

Friday

Again, I have four entries in the opening novices' hurdle, and none have been ruled out at this stage. But providing the ground isn't too quick, it could be that Brampour, a very fair ninth in the Triumph, is my main hope here. I could run Polisky too, but he is very much a horse for next year.

In the Grade 2 novices' chase I rely on Robinson Collonges. He disappointed me at Cheltenham, but I think it was simply a case of him missing the first three fences and game over. I certainly couldn't find anything wrong with him when he came back. My other entry, The Minack, goes for the Scottish National.

Master Minded will be my only runner in the Melling as the race may come too soon for Poquelin. It took Poquelin a good week to get over Cheltenham, which leads me to think that he wasn't at his best there. He could go to Cheltenham next week or maybe we will wait for Punchestown.

Fistral Beach and Free World go for the Topham, and Mon Parrain has that option too.

In the Grade 1 3m novices' hurdle, I have two entries and am coming round to thinking that Indian Daudaie, a good fourth in the boys race at Cheltenham, could be suited to this race. It is a Grade 1 race and it could cut up and I can see Ruby giving him one of his "creep rides" and going well. He also has the option of the 2m4f handicap on the Thursday but that trip could be on the sharp side round here, but let's see. We also have the option of the 3m handicap hurdle on this day; Pistolet Noir will run in that.

Saturday

I have entered four horses in the 2m4f novices' hurdle and it could be that Sam Winner will join Rock On Ruby in the race if the ground isn't too firm.

There were only eight initial entries in the Maghull, so that will be re-opened. I put two in the race; Ghizao, targeted for the Thursday, and Pepe Simo. The latter is a clearly a possible, and the return to a smaller field could suit him better.

Celestial Halo will be taking on some top-notchers in the Aintree Hurdle but he is no slouch himself and is in great form and good shape. I am looking forward to running him.

Mon Parrain and Take The Breeze are entered in the 3m1f handicap chase, and obviously I have my four in the Grand National, headed by the second favourite What A Friend.

I have three in the conditional handicap hurdle; Tito Bustillo, Rock Of Deauville and Empire Levant. This race is probably my preferred Aintree race for the latter if he gets in; I would be keen to see him race off his current mark with Ryan taking 5lb off.

We also run the Timeform Betfair Racing Club/Clive Smith partnership horse Plenty Pocket in the charity race. It is for horses rated 0-100 on the Flat and he had some fair middle distance form in France before disappointing on his hurdling debut at Ascot in January.

For more exclusive Paul Nicholls articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/paul-nicholls/