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02 Jun 14
11:46
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11 Jul 11
Monsieur Prudhomme has been the general director of Le Tour de France since 2007, so it's perhaps not surprising that aspects of the 2007 and 2010 editions have made it into this year's race around France. The race returns to England for the Grande Boucle for the first time since 2007, when the English capital held two stages to get the race underway. Once back to Continental Europe the race nears Belgium on stage 4, but it is not until stage 5, where the start begins in Belgium and follows closely the cobblestoned roads used in the 2010 edition. In fact, some of the same pave sectors will be used this around -- seven sectors at a total of 13kms. The riders will cover nearly 2.5kms more this time around, initially covering the dreaded Carrefour de l'Arbre once having ridden the first 87kms of the stage, and then also including the 2400m long sector at Sars-et-Rosieres which knocked-out Frank Schleck and Janez Brajkovic, and also the 3700m sector at Hornaing. Combine the understanding that 1.) the first sectors will be critical because the peloton should still be quite large and everyone will be making moves to be at the front, and 2.) there may be rain or the pave might be wet -- and you have a recipe to make a joke of the GC, with wild fluctuations in the market. Only the one ITT, which looks more suited to the GC contenders, although the profile is not out yet, will come on the penultimate stage.
The Criterium du Dauphine is the next race of interest, and the following riders at the top of the betting order are expected to start -- Froome, Contador, Nibali, TJ Van Garderen, and Porte. Then the Tour de Suisse will work as a tune-up for the following riders -- Valverde, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur.
My main play has been to back Valverde at anything over 50s given the discrepancy in the price with the Books, and I've laid Froome for a quick flip, but the market has gone against me.
Cheers,
SP
The Criterium du Dauphine is the next race of interest, and the following riders at the top of the betting order are expected to start -- Froome, Contador, Nibali, TJ Van Garderen, and Porte. Then the Tour de Suisse will work as a tune-up for the following riders -- Valverde, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur.
My main play has been to back Valverde at anything over 50s given the discrepancy in the price with the Books, and I've laid Froome for a quick flip, but the market has gone against me.
Cheers,
SP
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I've been backing Valverde for the same reasons as you, and also Wiggins. As far as I can see they could make up some considerable time on all the other contenders on the pave. They're also the least likely to come a cropper. I'm aware that Wiggins is unlikely to start as Sky's number 1 (and may not even start at all) but worth a poke at the available price.
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looking forward to this year, are you guys going to do a right up? 2012's coverage was really good and insightful, and was much appreciated.
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a write up* even. it's 1 am give me a pass on that
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Hey Razz -- I've been working on the Tour since even before the Giro, so I will certainly do write-ups for each stage, but will be following my approach of last year, in so far as I'll be concentrating on uncovering the angles more than providing stage profiles and maps in the way MC did for the Giro. In fact, I was just reviewing some of those stages, and the stage 7 write-up of last year, titled: "Tdf Stage 7: Montpellier --> Albi" -- came to prominence as it showed that with the right amount of study and consensus by the forum, the Books can be had quite comfortably.
MC -- I believe the thinking of SKY having Wiggins in the team is directly related to the potential trouble of that pave stage, and having a suitable near first-string back-up rider to Froome should the unthinkable happen in the helter–skelter of what are notorious stretches of medieval road. Obviously Porte is another option for them. However Wiggins rode the Hell of the North in very impressive fashion in May, more than merely his 9th place finish suggests, and I recall you raised some impressive observations of his performances in California, which I didn't see. I will track down his California rides off the net, but a lot suggests that having him on side prior to the start might be a prudent move. I agree though, that his inclusion in the nine-man team for the Tour is not assured yet, and it's interesting that Froome and Wiggins will start in different races in tune-up for the Tour. Also, "The last race the duo [Froome and Wiggins] rode together was the World Championships in Firenze last September while the last race they rode together for Sky was the 2013 Tour of Oman." Froome gets to show his form first by lining-up in the Criterium du Dauphine, and then Wiggins gets to impress in the Tour de Suisse. Cheers, SP |
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Contador is back to his best and with a very strong team behind him wins this hands down. Bertie is the GOAT and will prove it. He's already ripped Quintana a new on this season
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There doesnt seem any value whatsoever in backing Froome at odds on so he may warrant a small lay and look for value elsewhere.
Contador is around the 9/4 mark which probably seems about right. He seems a certainty to be on the podium. Any drift after the early stages to 3/1 or 7/2 would represent a decent bet. Nibali varies from 5/1 - 8/1 but i really cant seem him taking yellow. Valverde ranges from 16/1 - 20/1 but is 45/1 on betfair. He can always turn it on and is always a rider to have in your portfolio. A bit @ 45/1 would not be a bad idea as a saver. Unfortunately he always seems to have a day where he will lose time and that may prevent his taking yellow but you would kick yourself if he won and went unbacked. Sir Brad, well where do you begin to analyse his prospects.Ranging from 22/1 - 33/1 is a massive price for a former Tour winner and 64/1 on betfair. I would love to see him ride this year and win but i dont expect him to take part. If Froome has any say in the matter i wouldnt think he would want him there although Dave Brailsford might. If Froome has a knock like last year can you see Bradley going back to a car in the last 20k like Porte did , i dont think so. I cant see Rodriguez, Porte or TVG as Tour winners. I would expect Rui Costa to pick up a stage win or two Further down the betting Bauke Mollema stands out as a very big price 449/1 on here and although i cant see him winning, there may he some opportunity to trade out at a later stage and he is just to big to pass on the price Pinot i like but again i think the best he can hope for is stage wins good luck everyone |
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Wiggins wins in Switzerland, and he is in the squad for France, no doubt. Losing a domestique role for a near first-string rider who is a former winner, with the pave in-play this year -- becomes a dream-team situation that no DS would pass up. Purito won't start, I don't think. Looking into Mollema. SP
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Yes, it was HB who had a similar play with Mollema in last year's Tour, and from what I remember there was some liquidity and a shortening in price for him to have made a small trading profit. Mollema has improved on last year's season, but even a win in the Tour de Suisse next week would only have him as an outside chance for the podium in the Tour. 150/1 E/W (paddypower) looks like a slightly better play than a trade on here for 300s (now), but I think it all goes to the pave stage and the potential destruction it holds -- if there is carnage and he remains standing than it'll be seen as a genius bet, but I think there are better plays at this stage. I don't think the market fears Mollema enough for a solid slide in his price, but at that price only a short movement is required to turn a profit. It would appear you might turn a profit already, in any case, so there's that. Certainly I would see him as only a trading option as there are nearly ten riders ahead of him that look stronger on paper for an actual result. SP
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Big surprise for me, but Wiggins out of the Tour, price has gone south. SP
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looks like Froome has thrown his toys out the pram and cant trust Wiggo not put some time into him into the pave then have Froome riding for him again.!
Bad decision from Team Sky imo the addition of the most popular figure in British Cycling would have added a fascinating element of spice into the mix. Shame a clash of personalitys cant be managed by Brailsford. Not that Wiggo is without an element of blame 2 things stick in my mind from his 2012 win 1) The last mountain climb won by Valverde imo Wiggo should have given Froome the office to continue chasing Valverde giving Froome gr8 chane of a stage victory whilst proving no threat or danger to Wiggins 2) The supposed witholding of payment to Froome from Wiggins Looks like Froome has decided its payback time. Sad state of fairs where the fans of cycling are the losers. |
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Sky must be super confident about Froome and probably about Porte as well - knowing the backlash if they didn't win the Tour. I would think they are putting up great numbers in training and it's probably going to be another procession
Brailsford comes across as pretty weak - can't even make the announcement himself and leaves Wiggins to do it |
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Poor decision from SKY, Froome must think Wiggins can beat him
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I understand that cycling at this level is a team sport, and therefore team dynamics play an important role in the harmony of the team and that this has a direct influence on the team's results, so it must the case that the friction between these two is seen by DS as a destabilising force of such significant potential that it might harm the performances of the entire team, but obviously it's defending champion.
I think it's an important point that the team are confident about Froome's defence that they're backing him with this decision by excluding Wiggins, but Froome had pull in the decision because he won so convincingly last year and Wiggins is perceived as an aging rider unlikely to rediscover his Tour-winning form. I don't think Froome is scared of Wiggins beating him, it's more likely that Froome is being petty by getting back at Wiggins for the things geoff has raised. A bigger man and a greater rider would see the advantage of having Wiggins, not necessarily alongside him, but included in the team, for the options it gives them to three-peat! But ultimately, it has to be the failure of management |
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Roman Kreuziger looks an interesting price on here for a trade, even though he'll be riding in service of Contador. He's as low as 40/1 with some Books, perhaps remembering that he had a strong third week and finished 5th behind his leader, only one minute behind. But whilst that was a year ago, he has proven he is close to similar form when riding very impressively in Tirreno-Adriatico in March to make the podium, even though he was again riding for Bertie. On stage 4, I believe it was, he came to the front to set up the race for Bertie, doing a heap of work really early on the final climb and no one could go with him for a while. He later had no business mixing it in the finale, but just got beat into 4th by Danny Moreno, with Quintana 2nd and Contador winning thanks to his team-mate's impressive work. He then had a quite impressive Ardennes campaign, 18/8/7.
He won't win the Tour in a straight-out fist fight, but given again the potential of the surprises we might see in the pave stage 5, he might be trading much lower than the 200s freely available now. In fact, given he is hitting his prime as a rider, is in good form, and has fans -- there should be some profitable movement in his price even earlier, especially if he confirms his form in the Tour de Suisse, which he looks like he should win given that Valverde has opted to ride the Route du Sud instead, leaving only Carlos Betancur and Bauke Mollema as his two main rivals, since the Schlecks are out of form, Evans may feel the Giro given his age, and others may require more riding: Rui Costa, Ten Dam, and Pinot. SP. |
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Froome just can't shake Bertie
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Froome attempted multiple attacks on the Col du Beal in order to shake Bertie, one of which was sustained and brutal to all appearances, and it is true that he couldn't shake the Spanish veteran; whilst he did shake Kelderman, Nibali, Talansky and JDVB on multiple occasions. It is worth noting that Bertie was dragged up by Froome for much of the climb and it was telling that Bertie didn't have the strength in the final few hundred metres to go around Froome and find the line first. Froome won the stage, that's important. Bertie confirmed his impressive prospects for the Tour. And in relation to he Tour, after this brief glimpse of form observations: As anticipated Nibali requires more riding, so he may be an improving prospect in the second and final week of the Tour. Actually, it may pay to observe Nibali closely here as the way the Tour is set out this year, it looks like Nibali may come into it with developing form, and that may suit him. Talansky may come of age with solid riding. JVDB may contend for a podium. SP
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Guys - they've finally given us a cycling forum - let's use it
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Clay -- I will say that 3/1 or better on here is good value for Bertie. He is shorter than 2/1 with at least one book and all he needs to do is stay w/ Froome here to advance his Tour credentials. There seems to be plenty of movement in that price given how close he is form-wise to Froome. SP
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Purito is in...
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Bertie busy on the pedals dancing the beautiful wonder-magic, getting Clay all excited, I'm sure!
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Bertie is on fire.....Froome's inhaler has run out of puff
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Bertie is on fire, true, but he doesn't want to crisp-up too quickly Clay. That 3/1 went as fast as his attacks, not surprisingly.
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Can someone tell me why Froome is still fav for the TDF? Bertie has handed his ass on a plate to him this week. He has out thought and out rode him. Sky are all over the place with their tactics. Bertie is the one they all have to beat in the TDF. He will have a very strong team with him in a few weeks.....he barely had any team with him this week at all.
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The simple answer to your question is weight of money, Clay. Froome holds more than half of the matched bets on this event, and the Books know they are going to let people like me back in the door if they let him get out to beyond evens.
I'm out of my Bertie position, time to start again, now that things are a little clearer post Dauphine, as I'm not such a die-hard Bertie believer such as you mate. He did ride well, overall, I think that he had a far better ride than Froome, but Froome had the excuse I correctly thought he might use after his stage 6 crash. I wouldn't agree to use the words you did, but I will agree that Bertie had no team with him, that was quite clear, and if Kreuziger has the ride I think he might have in Switzerland than he'll be a top lieutenant for him, certainly the equal of Porte. Sky had a stronger team here, but they weren't well drilled, they haven't had a good season as we know, nevertheless they will have been improved by this hit-out. Mikel Nieve finally found his place in the team, and that kind of confident riding by him will serve SKY well, when the going gets tough in the Tour. Would you have Contador as the favourite on the basis of what you have seen so far? Cheers, SP |
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Big news for TCS and particularly Contador with Kreuziger being dropped from their Tour team, on account of alleged doping. That was enough to push Froome into clear favouritism in the winner market, and he may go odds-on again prior to the start as the perceived significance of that move settles. SP
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