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Stage 20
MANIAGO - MONTE ZONCOLAN
31th May 2014
167 KM - High Mountain
One more day of climbing for the weary peloton before the jaunty last stage into Trieste. The winner of the pink jersey looks like a formality, but there is still plenty up for grabs, including final positions in the standings and of course the stage win. For Nacer Bouhanni there is also the little matter of getting home within the time to make sure he is able to confirm his sprint jersey tomorrow. The route resembles a giant "S" as we head west out of Maniago. The first half of the stage is fairly flat, and we don't get to the first categorised climb until 84 of the 168 km.
When we do get to the Passo del Pura it will take some climbing. It is 11.25k @ 7.7%, with the last 7km averaging over 9% and some 13% just before we crest the summit.
There is then a technical descent and we are straight into the Sella di Razzo (The Saddle of the Rocket). This is a category 2 climb but is actually the highest point of the day. The Sella is really two climbs, a longer steadier lower part and then just over 2km of flate before a steeper last 3km. Right at the very top there is about 500 yards at 15% that will could allow attacks before a 30k long descent to the Zoncolan.
The infamous Zoncolan is just a monster, the Angliru of the Giro. The Gavia and the Stelvio are longer and higher climbs but the Zoncolan averages 11.9% for it's 10.1km. It starts of steadily, has a small period of false flat after almost 2km and then immediately the very steep ramps kick in. The next 5km average 15.1%
. This is just horrendous and everyone will be in real trouble. The last 3km average 9% but will seem like a respite after the ordeal of the previous section. There are still a couple of last kickers though, a really steep section just as the riders approach the flamme rouge, and then another section with a couple of hundred yards to go.
The winner on the Zoncolan will write their name into Italian cycling history. We have climbed the mountain from the Ovaro side, as we do today, three times. The first was in 2007 when Gilberto Simoni won. In 2010 Basso was the winner and in 2011 Igor Anton won. Anton is obviously on Quintana's team and I think Nairo Quintana will show his class by putting them all to the sword.
Another potential winners would be Fabio Aru. He did a superb time trial yesterday and he has shown he can take time out of most of the other contenders in this field. He might well have his eyes on Rigoberto Uran's second place and has 41 seconds to make up. Pierre Rolland is likely to attack again but I don't think he can take time out of Quintana and Aru. Pozzovivo has been disappointing in the second half of this Giro and this is his last chance to make an impression on the race. The other two men who have shown their strength in the climbs are Fabio Duarte and Julien Arrendondo. Arrendondo beat Duarte on Stage 18 to secure the montain jersey, and has shown that he has the speed on the steep slopes to challenge the best climbers.
I think the steepness of this climb really suits someone Arrendondo, but even he won't be able to do anything if Quintana decides he wants to take this stage.
MANIAGO - MONTE ZONCOLAN
31th May 2014
167 KM - High Mountain
One more day of climbing for the weary peloton before the jaunty last stage into Trieste. The winner of the pink jersey looks like a formality, but there is still plenty up for grabs, including final positions in the standings and of course the stage win. For Nacer Bouhanni there is also the little matter of getting home within the time to make sure he is able to confirm his sprint jersey tomorrow. The route resembles a giant "S" as we head west out of Maniago. The first half of the stage is fairly flat, and we don't get to the first categorised climb until 84 of the 168 km.
When we do get to the Passo del Pura it will take some climbing. It is 11.25k @ 7.7%, with the last 7km averaging over 9% and some 13% just before we crest the summit.
There is then a technical descent and we are straight into the Sella di Razzo (The Saddle of the Rocket). This is a category 2 climb but is actually the highest point of the day. The Sella is really two climbs, a longer steadier lower part and then just over 2km of flate before a steeper last 3km. Right at the very top there is about 500 yards at 15% that will could allow attacks before a 30k long descent to the Zoncolan.
The infamous Zoncolan is just a monster, the Angliru of the Giro. The Gavia and the Stelvio are longer and higher climbs but the Zoncolan averages 11.9% for it's 10.1km. It starts of steadily, has a small period of false flat after almost 2km and then immediately the very steep ramps kick in. The next 5km average 15.1%
. This is just horrendous and everyone will be in real trouble. The last 3km average 9% but will seem like a respite after the ordeal of the previous section. There are still a couple of last kickers though, a really steep section just as the riders approach the flamme rouge, and then another section with a couple of hundred yards to go.The winner on the Zoncolan will write their name into Italian cycling history. We have climbed the mountain from the Ovaro side, as we do today, three times. The first was in 2007 when Gilberto Simoni won. In 2010 Basso was the winner and in 2011 Igor Anton won. Anton is obviously on Quintana's team and I think Nairo Quintana will show his class by putting them all to the sword.
Another potential winners would be Fabio Aru. He did a superb time trial yesterday and he has shown he can take time out of most of the other contenders in this field. He might well have his eyes on Rigoberto Uran's second place and has 41 seconds to make up. Pierre Rolland is likely to attack again but I don't think he can take time out of Quintana and Aru. Pozzovivo has been disappointing in the second half of this Giro and this is his last chance to make an impression on the race. The other two men who have shown their strength in the climbs are Fabio Duarte and Julien Arrendondo. Arrendondo beat Duarte on Stage 18 to secure the montain jersey, and has shown that he has the speed on the steep slopes to challenge the best climbers.
I think the steepness of this climb really suits someone Arrendondo, but even he won't be able to do anything if Quintana decides he wants to take this stage.
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I think Aru looked absolutely done in at the end of today's stage. Really in the red zone.
Any odds against Quintana is a gift. He will smash em all over the zoncolan |
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The Giro has actually visited the Zoncolan four times, with Simoni winning for the first time in 2003 before winning again in 2007, although the first time was from Sutrio not Ovaro. What's perhaps more interesting is that whilst Simoni won the Giro on GC in 2003, he didn't in 2007, nor did Anton in 2011, who actually wasn't even in the GC frame. Only Basso won the Zoncolan and won the Giro on GC, in 2010 from Ovaro. So it perhaps shows that good climbers who are not GC contenders can win on the Zoncolan.
The closest climb in terms of difficulty on Italian soli is the Mortirolo Pass, which covers 12.4kms at 10.5%, and which I would argue holds more prestige on account of the first rider to the top receiving the "Cima Pantani" or 'Top Pantani' -- a prize in respect of the late and great Italian climber Marco Pantani. Whilst Quintana has come out and stated that he will go for the win on the Zoncolan, I think it will only come should the Principals group be together within the final final few kms. He has already proven what was required by winning in such fine fashion in the ITT yesterday, and so there is now no doubt who the best rider in the Giro is this year, and whilst there'll be some pride to win on the Zoncolan, I don't think this climb holds the same mythic status of other climbs, and therefore isn't necessarily the highly-valued prize as might be suggested. I certainly think the organisers wanted it to be a decisive climb for the GC standings, however Quintana has already hammered the final nail into the coffin of his rivals, and I think that perhaps a breakaway might go to the end with a lesser name. Arredondo must be buoyed by his GT debut with a stage win and plenty of attacking riding. He had a very soft ride in the ITT yesterday, finishing among some of the sprinters in 126th position, and at over 12mins back. I think that TFR would've known the futility of a strong ride by Arredondo, knowing that Quintana was going to go for the ITT win and wasn't going to get beaten, and instructed Arredondo to have an easy ride, in order to keep him as fresh as possible for today. I think that might have been the plan since after he won the stage 18 to Rif. Panarotta (Valsugana), in fact. Another stage win on the penultimate stage of the race, would be regarded as a successful outing for this rebranded team after what must have been a disappointing campaign in the one-day classics with only the one Monument for Sparatcus in the Ronde van Vlaanderen. In conclusion; Quintana is the deserving short-priced favourite and the likely winner should the GC group go to the line together -- although I would be so quick to discount Aru -- however Quintana is very short for a stage that proves nothing much should he win it, perhaps beyond some pride. I therefore believe Arredondo offers excellent value at (**) 25/1 (888sport) on an E/W basis to win and confirm his promise as an exciting young climber for the future. Also, BAR will want to finish on a high, literally, and Battaglin, whilst he pushed it yesterday in the ITT, looks nevertheless the most promising and at (*) 200/1 E/W (various) is of some interest. Good luck to all, SP |