Giro d'Italia Stage 18

Managed to call the break winning yesterday but couldn't find the needle in the haystack. Today is a 171km long high mountain stage with a summit finish as we approach the tail end of the Giro d'Italia, and this will give the GC a further shakeup, giving us a clearer idea of the final standings. The good news is there are no climbs above 2,000 metres so we shouldn't anticipate any weather-related controversies. We head West then North out of Belluno towards the 2,000 foot tall Passo San Pellegrino.



This is a long old climb, 18.5km at 6.2%. The first 12% aren't going to trouble anyone, but they will help the morning break get away. The last 6km are considerably steeper, averaging 8.6%. We then have a long descent before the second climb of the stage, the Cat 2 Passo Del Redebus.



This is really a long climb in two stages, but the large flat in the middle means it is only technically a Cat 2. It should put some hurt in the legs as teams fight to get their leaders into position though. The second part of the climb is extremely steep, averaging over 9%.

After the descent of the Redebus we come to the final climb to the summit of the Panarotta. This is a monster of a climb, with 15.3km at 7.8%. It is fairly steady in terms of gradient but the length and continuous gradient will see some large gaps appear. The last few kilometres are pretty consistent, averaging almost 8%, and the winner of this will have to have their climbing boots on.



The three possible scenarios here are the GC men fighting it out. If they do Nairo Quintana has to be favourite again. One thing that has possibly been overlooked from all the controversy around Stage 16 was how good Quintana was. He was doing pretty much all the work from 20km+ out. Rolland and Hesjedal were able to offer little. He will also be determined to put on a show, increase his lead and ensure that nobody can taint his first Grand Tour win by saying he shouldn't have won.

The second scenario is that the GC men catch the break on the final climb and Quintana plays it safer, marking Uran and the other favourites and effectively protects the jersey. In this scenario some climbers who are not real dangers may be allowed to make their move on the higher slopes. This would bring people like Kiserlovski, Geniez, Duarte and Sebastien Henao into the equation. It's possible that if Quintana properly did a marking job on Uran that the riders currently 3rd to 9th might also be allowed to make a move. If that was the case then Pozzovivo and Arun look like the climbers with something still to offer.

The third possibility is the break staying out. It should be a very strong one. Arrendondo, Chalapud, Wellens and Cataldo are all likely to try and get in the break, mop up some points and then assess things for the stage win. Others who might try and win from the break are Roche, Moreno and Niemiec. All these guys will have had high hopes for the Giro and might see this stage as a way of finally salvaging something.

I think this is all about Movistar though. I think Quintana will want to not just hold but increase his grip on maglia rosa. I expect a strong morning break to be brought back my Movistar driving the pace and I expect Quintana to attack on the final climb.

3/1 Quintana is the best price available but I expect bigger in running once the break forms and gets good time.
20/1 Sebastian Henao is also worth a dabble. He's been in with the big favourites and climbing superbly in the last two mountain stages. I suspect he has been given the brief to get in and among the GC boys as if he was a major contender as Sky look to the future. He certainly won't be considered a threat to anyone with overall aspirations and he could have the ambition and legs to figure on the Panarotto.

22/1 Henao with Lads

Great stuff again Mc.

It has to be Quintana again, and like you i think he will want to extend his lead so that there are no doubts over who should be wearing pink! The best i could get was 5/2, which i still think is a very good price.
On first look i did think this could be another stage for the break, but after everyone taking it so easy today i don't think so. There are so many teams with riders still in contention for the GC, that i think they will be going a very high tempo all day, and it will be very difficult for any break to gain much time. It should come down to the elite on the final climb, and that only means one man Quintana, he has got stronger everyday and there is no-one here who can live with him on the big climbs. I would be very surprised if he hasn't extended his lead by tomorrow night.

MC talking of Sky's riders for the future, i thought Swifts performance yesterday was probably the most amazing of the day.  For a sprinter to climb with the maglia rosa group right up until 12km to go on that brutal stage, was extraordinary, finishing 25th on the stage beating many decent climbers.

I agree mate, was a very good performance. He showed when he won that stage in Pais Vasco that his climbing had improved in leaps and bounds. That was something else though.

Will Hill 40/1 Henao if anyone is interested

Have had a bit of that 40/1 Henao, Cheers MC.
Sky are desperate for a stage win, and they are quickly running out of opportunities. like you said Henao has been climbing very well, he was pulling Uran up the last 3km yesterday.

20 year-old Colombian and cousin to Sergio Henao, Sebastian Henao showed some promise in his 8th place finish to Val Martello on stage 16. However, he hasn't found a podium in his short career in much easier races and stages than this, and by all reports hasn't been touted as anything special in his junior years. 40/1 seems awfully short, and if he were to win, it would be the biggest breakthrough win in a GT since I don't know when. 400/1 seems more appropriate.

Quintana at 5/2 looks value, but to have him at better than 3/1 on here on a WIN ONLY basis, feels like the Books may know something we don't and are lying in wait. And I don't think they do, nor think they are.

Quintana finally suggests being primed for this after an easy day in the saddle yesterday, and even though he did the majority of the work on the way to stage 16 Val Martello victory -- he didn't look like he was pushing, nor was he in any obvious fatigue. I don't think we've seen Quintana pressing in the way he did when going around the outside of the switchbacks late in stage 16, where he was easily putting distance into Rolland and Hesjedal, the latter rider coming back along the relatively flatter parts. Moreover, not only is MOV fully-fit but they are one of only four teams left in the race with a full complement of riders, most of which will be alongside Quintana up the final climb, I believe.

As for MOV doing all the work on the front, it is highly likely but not the only scenario. The easier ride Quintana is given, the better he is likely to perform on the final climb, and let's remember that a stage win is not his number one priority (in the team controlling the break). I therefore expect some sharing of pace-making duties on the front, especially since there is talk of alliances being formed post stage 16 controversy.

I expect Quintana to destroy his opposition by winning this stage in the fine fashion of him being regarded as The purest climber in the world, and would only be more confident of him winning if this stage was to come after the mountain  ITT.

In conclusion; yes there may be surprises, cycling is like that, but given what we know and what is most likely to eventuate, backing Quintana at better than 3/1 makes smart betting sense.

Good luck to all,
SP

is this break likely to last? 6m30sec 87km left?

It's touch and go, I think they'll want the best part of 5 minutes at the bottom of the climb to stay out, but it depends entirely on the speed of the chasers.

I've backed Quintana at 15.0 IR and laid Duarte at 3.0

Very pleased for Arredondo, (I think CM is also) who finally combined some patience, an appropriate stage for his characteristics, and good feeling in his legs to win in fine fashion. He has confirmed my belief in his promise as a top climber, prior to the start of the Giro, and he really doesn't need much to become a GT contender. Definitely one to follow closely over the next few seasons to see how he develops. SP

Very pleased that Arredondo has got something on his palmares from this tour as his climbing and that of Fabio Aru have lit up the race. I didnt back him for this stage though. I think he will learn alot from this tour , he needs to be more patient with his attacks and look round less. He has a good future. Wilko Kelderman has also impressed throughout this tour.