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Everyone recovered?
Stage 17
SARNONICO - VITTORIO VENETO
28th May 2014
208 KM - Flat
Just after the first Categorised climb tomorrow we go through the town of Arsie, which may sum up the mood of several of the Directeurs Sportifs tomorrow. Several commentators and representatives have voiced their disgust about what happened yesterday, but even though it means I can now almost definitely write off my large bet on Uran, I can't see what the issue is. Obviously there was some confusion and the directors have not covered themselves in glory, but what can be done now? There was 1min 30 separating the two groups and the bottom of the descent and it ended up being 4min 30. I don't know how Quintana, who had to do almost all the work himself for the last 20km managed to put so much time into a group of 8 of the other contenders working together. Anyway, a new team has the jersey now. We'll see if Movistar can defend it. They should be able to with the riders they have left. Moreover, Quintana looks in stunning form.
Anyway, we have a relatively flate stage tomorrow. We have a long descent out of Sarnonico in the far North of Italy, heading South, before we cut East, skirting the Dolomites in an anti-clockwise direction. Although it's technically a flat stage, we have 3 categorised climbs tomorrow and a number of uncategorised climbs. Compared to yesterday these things will seem like molehills. The first categorised climb is almost exactly halfway, and then we have two later climbs with roughly 45 and 20kms to go. The last of these climbs, the Muro di Ca' del Poggio, is only 1.5km long but it is very steep, touching 20% in parts. The sprinters should get burned off here but the last few kms are all pan flat, raising the hopes of the sprinters for bunch finish. The organisers have given us another finish with twists and turns, and if it rains it could be another hairy finish with crashes.
It also remains to be seen which teams are strong and/or moptivated enough to chase a break down and I think this could be one to stay out. FDJ won't be able to do the work by themselves, and if teams like Lotto and Canondale get men in the break they won't be too interested. Bouhanni stayed inside the cutoff fairly easily yesterday, actually beating the bus home, and I was suprised to see him open at 11/1 with Padds. That didn't last long and he is naturally favourite if it goes to a bunch sprint. I don't think Bouhanni is ready to beat the very fastest sprinters in the world but he's a class above the remaining fast men in this race. He's 4/1 now, and my play is to back him in running after the final climb if the break has been caught. We've seen how determined he can be to get himself back in and we might we get a superb price if it looks like he isn't going to get back on. Doing it this way means we don't do our dough if the morning break stays out as well.
Who is likely to be in the break? The usual Colombians, Venezuelans and someone from Bardiani and Neri Sottoli. Hepburn or Tuft from Orica might fancy stretching their legs now they are over their earlier crashes. Katusha are likely to have someone there like Gusev or Losada and Lotto have got a few cards they could play such as Hansen or Wellens. I've taken Europcar's Arashiro at 100/1 and another Katusha rider Belkov at 150/1, I've felt that they both been looking to get into breaks and this could be the day it pays off.
I will look for further plays in-running.
Stage 17
SARNONICO - VITTORIO VENETO
28th May 2014
208 KM - Flat
Just after the first Categorised climb tomorrow we go through the town of Arsie, which may sum up the mood of several of the Directeurs Sportifs tomorrow. Several commentators and representatives have voiced their disgust about what happened yesterday, but even though it means I can now almost definitely write off my large bet on Uran, I can't see what the issue is. Obviously there was some confusion and the directors have not covered themselves in glory, but what can be done now? There was 1min 30 separating the two groups and the bottom of the descent and it ended up being 4min 30. I don't know how Quintana, who had to do almost all the work himself for the last 20km managed to put so much time into a group of 8 of the other contenders working together. Anyway, a new team has the jersey now. We'll see if Movistar can defend it. They should be able to with the riders they have left. Moreover, Quintana looks in stunning form.
Anyway, we have a relatively flate stage tomorrow. We have a long descent out of Sarnonico in the far North of Italy, heading South, before we cut East, skirting the Dolomites in an anti-clockwise direction. Although it's technically a flat stage, we have 3 categorised climbs tomorrow and a number of uncategorised climbs. Compared to yesterday these things will seem like molehills. The first categorised climb is almost exactly halfway, and then we have two later climbs with roughly 45 and 20kms to go. The last of these climbs, the Muro di Ca' del Poggio, is only 1.5km long but it is very steep, touching 20% in parts. The sprinters should get burned off here but the last few kms are all pan flat, raising the hopes of the sprinters for bunch finish. The organisers have given us another finish with twists and turns, and if it rains it could be another hairy finish with crashes.
It also remains to be seen which teams are strong and/or moptivated enough to chase a break down and I think this could be one to stay out. FDJ won't be able to do the work by themselves, and if teams like Lotto and Canondale get men in the break they won't be too interested. Bouhanni stayed inside the cutoff fairly easily yesterday, actually beating the bus home, and I was suprised to see him open at 11/1 with Padds. That didn't last long and he is naturally favourite if it goes to a bunch sprint. I don't think Bouhanni is ready to beat the very fastest sprinters in the world but he's a class above the remaining fast men in this race. He's 4/1 now, and my play is to back him in running after the final climb if the break has been caught. We've seen how determined he can be to get himself back in and we might we get a superb price if it looks like he isn't going to get back on. Doing it this way means we don't do our dough if the morning break stays out as well.
Who is likely to be in the break? The usual Colombians, Venezuelans and someone from Bardiani and Neri Sottoli. Hepburn or Tuft from Orica might fancy stretching their legs now they are over their earlier crashes. Katusha are likely to have someone there like Gusev or Losada and Lotto have got a few cards they could play such as Hansen or Wellens. I've taken Europcar's Arashiro at 100/1 and another Katusha rider Belkov at 150/1, I've felt that they both been looking to get into breaks and this could be the day it pays off.
I will look for further plays in-running.
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I introduced the exciting young talent from Italy, Sonny Colbrelli, on the Brabant Arrow thread, believing that the stage race was suitable for him to win. Unfortunately, he had a DNF in that race, along with another DNF in AGR, although in between those two races he did at least finish in 96th place in the GP de Denain Porte du Hainaut. I believed he was knocking on the door of his first ever win as a professional since he was having such a great season prior to the commencement of the Ardennes calendar, with an amazing six Top-5 results against quality opposition, including podiums in respected races such as GP Citta di Lugano and Roma Maxima. His 6th place finish in MSR was a notable achievement, both for riding out such a long race in such a fine finish, and for improving on his 12th place finish in the same race the year before.
It has been said that he has the similar characteristics of John Degenkolb, although it appears to me that he does ride much lighter and is a shade shorter than the German sprinter. Also, in three of those six Top-5 results this year, he has finished among punchy climbers such as Valverde and Ulissi, so perhaps it might be the case that he doesn’t have his style or shape worked-out yet? Indeed, when asked a similar question at the start of the season; he answered, “I’m finding my position in pro cycling. I think I’m not a sprinter, but a fast rider who can compete for victory in a group of 80/100 riders, so not for bunch sprints.” One thing we can be sure about is that he is not a pure climber.
With the all-Italian outfit BAR having such an impressive Giro with two stage wins from breakaways in Canola and Battaglin, it may be the case that Colbrelli will look to add a third win for them in a stage which suits. The distance at a shade over 200kms is not an issue, nor is getting into a breakaway, which will be advised in their home GT, and the small climbs are insignificant for his ability. His two best (18th) results have come in bunch sprints so far, but I see no reason why
he cannot feature in this stage.
* Sonny Colbrelli 80/1 E/W (WillHill) Should be 150/1
Good luck to all,
SP
It has been said that he has the similar characteristics of John Degenkolb, although it appears to me that he does ride much lighter and is a shade shorter than the German sprinter. Also, in three of those six Top-5 results this year, he has finished among punchy climbers such as Valverde and Ulissi, so perhaps it might be the case that he doesn’t have his style or shape worked-out yet? Indeed, when asked a similar question at the start of the season; he answered, “I’m finding my position in pro cycling. I think I’m not a sprinter, but a fast rider who can compete for victory in a group of 80/100 riders, so not for bunch sprints.” One thing we can be sure about is that he is not a pure climber.
With the all-Italian outfit BAR having such an impressive Giro with two stage wins from breakaways in Canola and Battaglin, it may be the case that Colbrelli will look to add a third win for them in a stage which suits. The distance at a shade over 200kms is not an issue, nor is getting into a breakaway, which will be advised in their home GT, and the small climbs are insignificant for his ability. His two best (18th) results have come in bunch sprints so far, but I see no reason why
he cannot feature in this stage.
* Sonny Colbrelli 80/1 E/W (WillHill) Should be 150/1
Good luck to all,
SP
Big break of 24 riders, and interestingly, Le Bon is in there from FDJ which means they probably won't be chasing. Odds on this break makes it today, choose your weapons.
Felline and Geschke would be likely winners for me, and Cunego is fast on the line. Might also have a cheeky dabble on Le Bon as he's on of my favourite riders, but I'll wait to see the IR prices.
Felline and Geschke would be likely winners for me, and Cunego is fast on the line. Might also have a cheeky dabble on Le Bon as he's on of my favourite riders, but I'll wait to see the IR prices.
So quiet out there, I thought I would do what I normally don't, and check into the forum. Rest day in the saddle after yesterday's tough day. This is obviously going to the line. A rider with a good sprint is one thing, but a hard man or what I like to call a tough-as-nails character makes better appeal, and I've had Geschke on the favourite list for some time this season, so I'd have him. SP.
I think there'll be a selection on the Poggio and Geschke should make it quite easily, and then the racing will start since they'll be a fair clip from the finish, some 20kms.
Think Geschke is the likeliest winner but he was too short, picked up Felline 11.5, Cunego 18/1 ew and Le Bon 66/1 ew
Haven't seen Bak to the future for a long while. He'd be an obvious favourite in such a situation, but not sure he still has it. Canola stage 13 winner for BAR looks a promising type, but he won't be advantaged by the sprint I don't think, but best representation by BAR with three riders.
Tim Wellens 33/1!? Done! Looks right up for this, should make the selection, and has a podium in Montecassino.
De Gendt had a good Top-10 finish in the ITT, but wet roads are sticky roads, but will the group behind combine?
Pirazzi put in a strong acceleration to catch de Gendt on the Poggio.
De Gendt looking tough, forms a gap on the downhill from Pirazzi.
Wellens has made it to the 5 man group led by de Gendt... Looking good for the young Belgian -- come on son!
I don't rate this young kid from Australia, Jay McCarthy, but you know how we bread them down here? 
Wellens has a great shout here if the front 5 stay out. Here come Le Bon and Deignan though.
Lead group of 5 looking good, combining well, whilst those behind are attacking and splintering. Advantage for the leaders, I think.
Pirazzi not helping, in fact looks to be disrupting things for the lead 5 .
Brinksmanship cost the 4 in behind the sprint there, Wellens and McCarthy would both have been faster but refused to work as much as De Gendt
Veikkenen thought he'd won. There's no way that was a joke. Look at his face.
Lovely scenes, lovely stage finish, and lovely one-day classic finish... for Pirazzi backers! 
the "rider in pink" market could take some settling if they do take time of Quintana tonight.
There was a moment there where Wellens realized he had the sit and needed to put in a strong move to bridge, but inexperience cost him. Good finish by McCarthy, I'll remember him for next time, he'll win one day soon, I think.
All my pre-stage and in running bets with the books were losers but I kept them all really small and I laid de Gendt over the top of the final climb so minimised losses on here. No good but not too bad. Go and get the warm weather gear on, go for a ride now and start thinking about tomorrow's stage.
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