Giro d'Italia Stage 15

Like you MC i was surprised the breakaway went all the way today, but I can't see them doing it again tomorrow. I think now that Movistar and AG2R have seen a bit of weakness in their rivals that they will try and strike while  the iron is hot. I was shocked to see Uran looking so weary today, but it could be that him and Evans put so much in to that TT that they really need the rest day to recover a little.
With the stage pretty flat up until the finale, I can see the 2 teams, AG2R and Movistar setting a really strong pace. Therefore not giving a break much chance to get too far, and then really drilling it on to the final climb soon catching anyone up ahead.
Like you I think Quintana is the most likely winner, followed by Pozzovivo, but there is no value in the prices at all. I don't know if i've ever seen such a short price favourite for a mountain stage on a grand tour! And like you I really can't see any other angle tomorrow, so at those prices this is just one to watch and enjoy for me.

Whoa, was hoping for it but really didn't expect that from Quintana yesterday. The ease with which he forged ahead with Pozzovivo, was smooth and effortless, and he wasn't straining or going anywhere near his limit once they both moved on up the road, together. MOV must be given full credit for their hard work for him, they really worked the way I thought they might at the start of the race, or as their strength on paper suggested -- and whilst it wasn't the methodical brilliance we have usually admired from Sky in the past, they did offer good support, covered moves when required, and apart from ALM were really the only team represented in strong and expansive numbers for their principal.

Uran was disappointing for backers, but as known he experienced such bad days in the High Mountains last year, also. Nibali made him look second-rate on more than one occasion, but Uran rebounded after a poor day with a strong one, so perhaps all is not lost for him this year. In any case, the flip in price between Quintana and Uran eventuated as expected on the winner market.

I think the angle for entry into this stage comes from understanding the profile of the stage. It is a long flat parcours to the foot of the one and only climb of the day, and the peloton will find it quite comfortable to control the likely early breakaway, whilst keeping their tempo as easy as possible, especially since there is a significant descent just before the flat part before the climb begins, and by which they may be advantaged. I therefore believe that the GC contenders should be either first onto the climb, or close-enough behind the breakaway that they are much more manageable. 

OPQ will have to do a lot of the heavy-lifting to keep the likely early break in sights, since a soft ride will work into the hands of Quintana -- a stage win is not necessary for him whilst an easy ride is. It is a long stage and it finishes with a tough climb, so the fresher Quintana is by the time the peloton arrives at the climb, the better he might feel. If MOV can push the pace once they hit the climb, in the manner they were threatening they might yesterday when they organized themselves early on -- then we may see that attacks will be difficult to go as a big selection might be made. Can MOV ride
like the SKY of old? Regardless, Quintana is advantaged again, since if doesn't feel very strong he doesn't have to marshal his men into a such a train -- all he has to do, again, is remain with the GC group or cover a threatening move such as Pozzovivo's yesterday. Pozzovivo's attack was hardly destructive though, and since it looked similar to his attack of stage 9, when he finished 3rd and gained nearly 30secs on the GC contenders, it is likely that this type of attack is the best he can offer. Quintana should be capable of covering such an attack after hopefully an easy day in the saddle. And, if this is the day where Quintana feels strong, then what we might see is him burying himself and charging back into the race. On the basis of such a scenario his short-priced favouritism is understandable -- the Books fear him and rightly so, because: 1.) It has been over a week since his cold. 2.) He rode comfortably yesterday whilst gaining time on the Maglia Rosa. 3.) There is plenty of climbing remaining and therefore plenty of road for Quintana to gain time. 4.) There are minutes up for grabs in the stage 19 ITT.

Quintana was second wheel to Arredondo at about 5kms to go, yesterday. Quintana looked like he wanted to make a move soon after, but team-mate Anton came up beside him and they exchanged words as ALM with Pozzovivo wanted control and took it, by setting a strong rhythm. They didn't last long and Pozzovivo went first soon after, Majka responded as did Uran, and Quintana was late to make the acceleration, but once he got back on -- him, Pozzovivo, and Quintana's team-mate Gorka Izagirre sailed past Uran and they weren't going very hard at all.

Agree Poels offerred good assistance to Uran, but will he be capable of backing-up time and again like that? Without Poels he might have lost the lead today. Uran didn't look exhausted on the line, so it was likely he just didn't have the legs after his ITT exploits as HB suggets.

Given that Quintana shortened by a similar price in the winner market, to what he is being offered today for the stage win, it makes no sense for me to get involved.

Good luck to all,
SP

Did you get your GC book into good shape after Quintana's price contraction? I think you went back in after the TT?

Yes thanx MC -- went 21st, 22nd, 23rd of May. So, prior to ITT, after ITT, and before yesterday's stage, which was the best price at nearly 4/1. Have laid some off and seeded some small bids throughout further movements south in his price, for a small green field and big green Quintana. Am genuinely surprised by how quick my book has changed for the better, but played it well by going for value in a quality rider. Still need Quintana to win to cover my stage betting losses, but it's beginning to look much less stressful, and am hoping to finish on a high in the High Mountains. SP

I was very much in the Quintana camp yesterday and it was great to see the way he returned to form....although his tactics were slightly bizarre given that Uran looked cooked.
Today I'm very keen on Pozzovivo. Once bitten, twice shy and I think it will be roles reversed today. Pozzo was spitting fury with Quintana at the finishing line yesterday and rightly so. Pozzo will attack again today and if Quintana responds and wants to sit on his tail, I reckon Pozzo will sit up and refuse to lead him like yesterday. I can see Quintana making the pace - or possibly a Movistar team mate - with Pozzo sitting in the wings and jumping late on for the stage win.
Pozzo rates a great bet today for numerous reasons. A) you know he will have a go (not convinced you can say the same thing about Quintana) b) he's in great form c) this is an iconic stage for Italians d) none of the other climbers are in great form and you even have Rolland talking defending rather gonna attacking from now on in.
My biggest bet of the Giro so far on Pozzo

I just cant have Pozzo for win purposes at all. His win rate is dreadful. He can only win solo, and I've laid him. Small each way bets on Kelderman 28/1, Duarte 66/1, Geniez 150/1 and Chalapud 150/1

More amazing racing. Another Italian stage winner and a place for Duarte.

More amazing racing. Another Italian stage winner and a place for Duarte.

Think Uran will be fairly happy with that going into the rest day. Loses 20 seconds plus some bonus to Quintana, 40 plus 20 to Aru, makes time on everyone else.