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Stage 14
AGLIÈ - OROPA (BIELLA)
24th May 2014
164 KM - High Mountain
There's 4 categorised climbs in tomorrow's stage from Aglie to Oropa, two of which (including the summit finish) are Cat 1s. We'll doubtless see an early break containing Arredondo try and put as much distance between themselves and the peloton as possible, but with the GC teams fully engaged I would think the break will get brought back either on or before the final climb.
We start with a Cat 3, La Serra, after 23.7k. If the break isn't already down the road, this is where it will go. Then it's a lumpy terrain until 85k where we hit the Alpe Noveis. This is a brute of a climb. It's 9km at 7.9% but the first 3km are fairly easy but then it ramps up and the next 4km average 11.75% with a maximum of 16%. This should cause big holes in the peloton.
The descent will be welcome relief for some but the climbing soon starts again as 104k in we climb the Cat 2 Bielmonte. This is a much longer climb, at 18.5km, but the average gradient is 5.5%, so shouldn't cause too many problems, although if this is taken at pace we will continue to see riders drop away.
The descent from the Bielmonte is 30km long, and takes us right to the bottom of the Oropa. At 11.75km long, and with a 6.1% average it doesn't seem to challenging, but Oropa is really a climb of two halves; the first 5km of the climb are slight ramps. The second section is much steeper. The last 6.5km average 8%+, with a couple of sections that are 11%+.
This stage could be decisive. I see the GC teams making a pace so high that any breakaway gets wound in long before the top of Oropa. I think Evans may well try and regain some time here, and it will be very interesting to see if he can send someone up the road. I'm not sure whether Evans has the legs to drop Uran anyway, and he needs to be careful not to lose more time here, especially if he times an attack badly. Quintana would be a big danger on a stage like this if he was fit, but I don't know whether he'll be able to do much to improve his position either. So Rigoberto Uran could end up making more time here, and possibly also winning the stage. Pozzovivo could be the big danger. He has shown he is in good shape and climbing well. He might be far enough back to be left by Uran if he makes a move near the top. I'm interested to see how Robert Kiserlovksi performs tomorrow. The gradients look like they might be suitable for him, and he's looked in very good shape. He lost time in the time trial and I wouldn't imagine anyone would mark him if he was able to escape late on.
Uran 12/1 and Kiserlovski 50/1 are my two picks. I got a refund on yesterday's bet because an Italian won the stage, and Pozzovivo is probably the one who is most likely to trigger another Italian refund tomrrow.
AGLIÈ - OROPA (BIELLA)
24th May 2014
164 KM - High Mountain
There's 4 categorised climbs in tomorrow's stage from Aglie to Oropa, two of which (including the summit finish) are Cat 1s. We'll doubtless see an early break containing Arredondo try and put as much distance between themselves and the peloton as possible, but with the GC teams fully engaged I would think the break will get brought back either on or before the final climb.
We start with a Cat 3, La Serra, after 23.7k. If the break isn't already down the road, this is where it will go. Then it's a lumpy terrain until 85k where we hit the Alpe Noveis. This is a brute of a climb. It's 9km at 7.9% but the first 3km are fairly easy but then it ramps up and the next 4km average 11.75% with a maximum of 16%. This should cause big holes in the peloton.
The descent will be welcome relief for some but the climbing soon starts again as 104k in we climb the Cat 2 Bielmonte. This is a much longer climb, at 18.5km, but the average gradient is 5.5%, so shouldn't cause too many problems, although if this is taken at pace we will continue to see riders drop away.
The descent from the Bielmonte is 30km long, and takes us right to the bottom of the Oropa. At 11.75km long, and with a 6.1% average it doesn't seem to challenging, but Oropa is really a climb of two halves; the first 5km of the climb are slight ramps. The second section is much steeper. The last 6.5km average 8%+, with a couple of sections that are 11%+.
This stage could be decisive. I see the GC teams making a pace so high that any breakaway gets wound in long before the top of Oropa. I think Evans may well try and regain some time here, and it will be very interesting to see if he can send someone up the road. I'm not sure whether Evans has the legs to drop Uran anyway, and he needs to be careful not to lose more time here, especially if he times an attack badly. Quintana would be a big danger on a stage like this if he was fit, but I don't know whether he'll be able to do much to improve his position either. So Rigoberto Uran could end up making more time here, and possibly also winning the stage. Pozzovivo could be the big danger. He has shown he is in good shape and climbing well. He might be far enough back to be left by Uran if he makes a move near the top. I'm interested to see how Robert Kiserlovksi performs tomorrow. The gradients look like they might be suitable for him, and he's looked in very good shape. He lost time in the time trial and I wouldn't imagine anyone would mark him if he was able to escape late on.
Uran 12/1 and Kiserlovski 50/1 are my two picks. I got a refund on yesterday's bet because an Italian won the stage, and Pozzovivo is probably the one who is most likely to trigger another Italian refund tomrrow.
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Thanks as always for info MC. I did n't get a refund on my PP bet. They said that Uran was not Italian.?? Where's the mistake ? thanks N
MC,
KINDLY CLEAR UP the issue on STAGE 12 thread for all the readers
KINDLY CLEAR UP the issue on STAGE 12 thread for all the readers
Don't understand Catch Me. Your explanation would do ? Who are all the readers ?
Rolland for me tomorrow...he's desperate for a stage win.he will have a go.
Plus can't help but have a few bob on Quintana......he is a huge price.....best climber in this race bar none I thought he TT ok the other day....a 80% Quintana could be good enough here
Plus can't help but have a few bob on Quintana......he is a huge price.....best climber in this race bar none I thought he TT ok the other day....a 80% Quintana could be good enough here
CatchMeifyoucan,
I'll clear up the issue. You looked on the wrong thread.
netherton,
Italian won stage 13 so refunds are on that
I'll clear up the issue. You looked on the wrong thread.
netherton,
Italian won stage 13 so refunds are on that
Yes Clay, I agree Rolland and Quintana are both big players, either could win. Rolland could easily have won Stage 8 into Montecopiolo but just got caught with about 200m to go. Think he's less likely to win out of a break though, think his best chance is from a late escape. Quintana if fit is the most likely winner, but I get the impression he still isn't. Reckon we might see Quintana just get through the next couple of stages, then do some monster attacks at the base of maybe the Panarotto on stage 18 and the Zoncolan on stage 20.
This will be the last thread I'll do on the Giro guys. Hope you lot carry on, I've really enjoyed the discussion & I'll still be reading
Actually catchmeifyoucan, it IS on the thread you reference as well 
marychain1 21 May 14 22:54
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow. It's technically a flat TT but it does have some climbing in it, which will obviously slightly favour the GC guys (Evans, Uran, Pozzovivo, Quintana etc) over the traditional TT specialists like Malori, Castroviejo and Siutsou. But I don't think the degree of climbing is enough to give them that much of an advantage, and none of the GC guys are that hot in a TT anyway. Cadel Evans was pretty good a few years ago but he hasn't been that great recently. I certainly don't think Evans should be as short as 7/2. Pozzovivo is a wild card, he's always been a poor TTer but did a breathtaking and probably well-fuelled TT in the Vuelta last year to finish 3rd.
None of the top rank time-triallists are really here. If we look at the World Time Trial Championship (on a very flat course) from last year won by Tony Martin with Wiggins in 2nd place we have to go all the way down to 8th place to find someone that is racing the Giro; Adriano Malori (2 mins 51 secs behind Martin). Malori is rightly favourite, although he really struggled today with a crash, looked to have lost about half the skin off his back and I think he'd prefer a shorter flatter course anyway so I wouldn't be in a rush to back him. Konstantin Siutsiou was 10th (2 min 59 behind Martin), Roche (13th), Castroviejo (14th), Grabsch (20th) and Zoidl (30th) are the only others to figure that day who are here.
Will the hillier course suit Suitsiou? In my opinion yes. He's been climbing well this week, and is only 5 min 42 secs back in the overall standings in 19th place. That's another thing in his favour, Malori and Castroviejo have got to look after Quintana's overall aspirations so may not go 100%. Sky have no other overall contender so Sioutsiou can go all out, and also has the bonus of potentially climbing up the overall standings if he makes time on the other contenders - some of whom could lose a lot of time tomorrow.
In summary, Siutsiou is a stonking bet at anything above 10/1 or 12/1 tomorrow. I'm staggered I was able to get 66/1. Kelderman and Cataldo are both realistic winners as well, and I've also had a win/top 3 on Le Bon (125/1) and Zoidl (100/1) but my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou.
I've also added Rigoberto Uran at 14/1. I think he should beat Evans, he was very strong for OPQS in the TTT and has been getting stronger as the race has gone on.
Uran and Sioutsou bets are with PP so money back if Stage is won by an Italian, for which Malori and Cataldo are prime contenders.
marychain1 21 May 14 22:54
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow. It's technically a flat TT but it does have some climbing in it, which will obviously slightly favour the GC guys (Evans, Uran, Pozzovivo, Quintana etc) over the traditional TT specialists like Malori, Castroviejo and Siutsou. But I don't think the degree of climbing is enough to give them that much of an advantage, and none of the GC guys are that hot in a TT anyway. Cadel Evans was pretty good a few years ago but he hasn't been that great recently. I certainly don't think Evans should be as short as 7/2. Pozzovivo is a wild card, he's always been a poor TTer but did a breathtaking and probably well-fuelled TT in the Vuelta last year to finish 3rd.
None of the top rank time-triallists are really here. If we look at the World Time Trial Championship (on a very flat course) from last year won by Tony Martin with Wiggins in 2nd place we have to go all the way down to 8th place to find someone that is racing the Giro; Adriano Malori (2 mins 51 secs behind Martin). Malori is rightly favourite, although he really struggled today with a crash, looked to have lost about half the skin off his back and I think he'd prefer a shorter flatter course anyway so I wouldn't be in a rush to back him. Konstantin Siutsiou was 10th (2 min 59 behind Martin), Roche (13th), Castroviejo (14th), Grabsch (20th) and Zoidl (30th) are the only others to figure that day who are here.
Will the hillier course suit Suitsiou? In my opinion yes. He's been climbing well this week, and is only 5 min 42 secs back in the overall standings in 19th place. That's another thing in his favour, Malori and Castroviejo have got to look after Quintana's overall aspirations so may not go 100%. Sky have no other overall contender so Sioutsiou can go all out, and also has the bonus of potentially climbing up the overall standings if he makes time on the other contenders - some of whom could lose a lot of time tomorrow.
In summary, Siutsiou is a stonking bet at anything above 10/1 or 12/1 tomorrow. I'm staggered I was able to get 66/1. Kelderman and Cataldo are both realistic winners as well, and I've also had a win/top 3 on Le Bon (125/1) and Zoidl (100/1) but my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou.
I've also added Rigoberto Uran at 14/1. I think he should beat Evans, he was very strong for OPQS in the TTT and has been getting stronger as the race has gone on.
Uran and Sioutsou bets are with PP so money back if Stage is won by an Italian, for which Malori and Cataldo are prime contenders.
I think Quintana will try and pull back the deficit bit by bit instead of in one fell swoop i
ladies please, no bickering on the forum, this is serious business
MC, will be sad to see u go if thats what u decide, u can never hav enough information
Great write up again MC. Why is this your last one?
I agree with you and expect a really hard pace from the Gc teams, and so should be one of the big guns winning tomorrow.
However I think we may see a big attack from Quintana tomorrow or at the latest Sunday. I think if he was still just 2 mins behind he might have been prepared to wait until later in the 3rd week, but at 3 mins+ down I feel he will want to get some of that time back this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack towards the top of the penultimate climb, or very early on the final climb. He has to be the one to beat tomoorow, easily the best climber, and the only slight question mark his fitness but think they may have been a bit over played anyway.
We could see some real fireworks tomorrow, and i've got a feeling we may see Evans crack. Uran is sure to go well but could be vulnerable to a big attack, I see the main danger to be Possovivo but expect to see Quintana win tomorrow.
Quintana at 6/1 ew looks a very decent bet to me.
Have also had a small ew on Niemiec at 100/1 as looks too big a price. A very good climber on his day, he climbed well in the Trentino and in last years giro, and the final climb here should suit him. He would have been on domestique duties for Ulissi but after mondays crash and with Ulissi now a bit down on GC he may have a free-er role now, especially if Ulissi starts to struggle. If the favourites start to look at each other on the final climb, Niemiec won't be afraid to attack and try to go for the stage win.
I agree with you and expect a really hard pace from the Gc teams, and so should be one of the big guns winning tomorrow.
However I think we may see a big attack from Quintana tomorrow or at the latest Sunday. I think if he was still just 2 mins behind he might have been prepared to wait until later in the 3rd week, but at 3 mins+ down I feel he will want to get some of that time back this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack towards the top of the penultimate climb, or very early on the final climb. He has to be the one to beat tomoorow, easily the best climber, and the only slight question mark his fitness but think they may have been a bit over played anyway.
We could see some real fireworks tomorrow, and i've got a feeling we may see Evans crack. Uran is sure to go well but could be vulnerable to a big attack, I see the main danger to be Possovivo but expect to see Quintana win tomorrow.
Quintana at 6/1 ew looks a very decent bet to me.
Have also had a small ew on Niemiec at 100/1 as looks too big a price. A very good climber on his day, he climbed well in the Trentino and in last years giro, and the final climb here should suit him. He would have been on domestique duties for Ulissi but after mondays crash and with Ulissi now a bit down on GC he may have a free-er role now, especially if Ulissi starts to struggle. If the favourites start to look at each other on the final climb, Niemiec won't be afraid to attack and try to go for the stage win.
marychain1
I can see why you're upset.
I've only made one post the whole Giro but I've always read your great Stage previews.
I hope you decide to continue posting.
I can see why you're upset.
I've only made one post the whole Giro but I've always read your great Stage previews.
I hope you decide to continue posting.
Catch Me ifyoucan -- I believe you'll find that no one here questions MC's integrity. I initially made the comment that started all this, because I wasn't aware that MC was also furnishing a Giro thread on the Football forum. Nevertheless, his word is gold around here, and there was no reason for me to think anything untoward.
MC had posted the Uran bet on the Football forum, and then even went to the trouble to provide a screenshot of the bet on the other thread, and that should be enough for you to withdraw your position and apologise for inferring that MC was conducting himself poorly.
I think you have shown what a benefit you might be to this forum, if you spent your time and investigative mind on researching information for a stage or rider, since that is a larger part of finding good betting angles in cycling.
I don't believe anyone needs to discuss this matter further, and I hope that you might now let it rest?
Cheers,
SP
MC had posted the Uran bet on the Football forum, and then even went to the trouble to provide a screenshot of the bet on the other thread, and that should be enough for you to withdraw your position and apologise for inferring that MC was conducting himself poorly.
I think you have shown what a benefit you might be to this forum, if you spent your time and investigative mind on researching information for a stage or rider, since that is a larger part of finding good betting angles in cycling.
I don't believe anyone needs to discuss this matter further, and I hope that you might now let it rest?
Cheers,
SP
With this the first High Mountain stage, and the idea that results here are being so closely aligned with the perceived movements on the GC market -- it is prudent for me to strengthen my position on Quintana in the winner market, instead of backing him for the stage win. That way he only needs to finish with the GC contenders for me to get value, since I still believe that the market will get spooked with a Quintana attack (and possibly time gain) at some point in the High Mountains, eventually.
Essentially a bet on Quintana in the winner market is a bet on him to win any of these High Mountain stages, since if he wins with a big attack he gains big time, and 4/1 or even 7/2 is a price that will tumble should Quintana perform as many know he can.
Will he though? Well, is the phlegm in his chest coming away freely? How will his legs feel? I believe eventually he'll have one good day where his legs are good and his breathing clear, but am hoping that he is good to fight in every stage and claw back time on Uran. Here though I'll be happy if he finishes with the main selection.
I think what we are likely to see amongst the GC contenders is some indecision and pressure from those with inexperience. Someone will go off the front, look back, see that no one has responded and rejoin the selective bunch. Then they'll all call a truce since it'll be apparent that going off the front is too much work, and they'll remain together until the final km where those that feel the best will have a go for the win.
I'm interested in seeing how Kelderman goes, if he can even stay with the outright climbers. Can Ulissi hang tough with them, also? If he can than his style of attack in the final km might be too good for the others, and the 13/1 (paddypower) and 19/1 on here won't be available, I don't think. Pozzovivio makes some appeal as favourite, but is very short in an open affair. Arredondo is just crazy short, with obvious if unproven potential as yet. Evans looks big at 33/3 on here, and if there was Tour liquidity I'd be all over that, but am not confident he can do much more beyond hanging tough for a long way and being dropped by a lighter and more supple rider in the finale.
Good luck to all,
SP
Essentially a bet on Quintana in the winner market is a bet on him to win any of these High Mountain stages, since if he wins with a big attack he gains big time, and 4/1 or even 7/2 is a price that will tumble should Quintana perform as many know he can.
Will he though? Well, is the phlegm in his chest coming away freely? How will his legs feel? I believe eventually he'll have one good day where his legs are good and his breathing clear, but am hoping that he is good to fight in every stage and claw back time on Uran. Here though I'll be happy if he finishes with the main selection.
I think what we are likely to see amongst the GC contenders is some indecision and pressure from those with inexperience. Someone will go off the front, look back, see that no one has responded and rejoin the selective bunch. Then they'll all call a truce since it'll be apparent that going off the front is too much work, and they'll remain together until the final km where those that feel the best will have a go for the win.
I'm interested in seeing how Kelderman goes, if he can even stay with the outright climbers. Can Ulissi hang tough with them, also? If he can than his style of attack in the final km might be too good for the others, and the 13/1 (paddypower) and 19/1 on here won't be available, I don't think. Pozzovivio makes some appeal as favourite, but is very short in an open affair. Arredondo is just crazy short, with obvious if unproven potential as yet. Evans looks big at 33/3 on here, and if there was Tour liquidity I'd be all over that, but am not confident he can do much more beyond hanging tough for a long way and being dropped by a lighter and more supple rider in the finale.
Good luck to all,
SP
Agree Pozzovivo is short. I've laid Pozzovivo, Arrendondo and Ulissi against the field at a little worse than 1/2.
I've backed Uran and Kiserlovski each way with PP and I've done a single on Moreno to beat Ulissi at a whopping 11/8 with Lads.
I've backed Uran and Kiserlovski each way with PP and I've done a single on Moreno to beat Ulissi at a whopping 11/8 with Lads.
On career form Ulissi doesn't win this, but they way he has been riding here so far, he becomes an interesting proposition, and a danger to lay, imo. For instance, in the Mid Mountain stages he has found it comfortable to remain with the GC contenders, except for stage 9 when Pozzovivo attacked and held it to the line by nearly half-a-minute. Nevertheless, Ulissi stayed and went to the line best for fourth place in the GC group. The parcours is going to be a major test for him, but if the selections are mild in nature and he can make them, then I'd want to have him on side in the finale, since he has proven that his kick to the line has been very smooth, supple and strong on several occasions here at the Giro. SP
Laid Cataldo as well now just over 3/1
Basically got the field at Evens v Pozzovivo, Ulissi, Arrendondo & Cataldo
Basically got the field at Evens v Pozzovivo, Ulissi, Arrendondo & Cataldo
Laid Roche as well at 5.0.
Book is red on Roche/Cataldo. Small red Arrendondo and Ulissi. Level Pozzovivo.
Nice green the field.
Book is red on Roche/Cataldo. Small red Arrendondo and Ulissi. Level Pozzovivo.
Nice green the field.
well done marychain and thanks for the write ups and tips, keep up the good work!
Refund on the win part of my PP bets on Uran and Kiserlovski
All my lays came good
Lost money overall on the stage because my biggest bet was Moreno to beat Ulissi which lost
All my lays came good
Lost money overall on the stage because my biggest bet was Moreno to beat Ulissi which lost
Well done again MC, not sure how Cataldo didn't win that in the end, seemed easily the most comfortable but spent too much time waiting and allowed the others to catch up! He is going to go to bed tonight wondering how that stage slipped out of his grasp, and i'm pretty sure EBH will be a bit gutted after all the hard work he put in again.
Think we saw a snapshot off just who are going to be the 2 riders that will be going head to head in the big mountains this week, Possovivo and Quintana. In the end they didn't take out much time, but it was the ease with which they rode away from the other GC guys. While he still didn't look 100% yet, so you've got to feel that Quintana is just going to be getting stronger with every day now, and the other contenders must be feeling its just a matter of time until he puts in the real big one. Fair play to Majka and Aru who put in a great effort to drag there way back up to the other two, and Poels did some great work for Uran and Evans.
I had a feeling Evans may struggle once in the big mountains, and think he will probably fall right out of the top 5 as we go through the week, but was surprised to see Uran look so vulnerable so quickly. It was possibly just a bad day for him but doesn't bode well with the likes of Quintana only going to get stronger, and the stages only going to get harder!
Think we saw a snapshot off just who are going to be the 2 riders that will be going head to head in the big mountains this week, Possovivo and Quintana. In the end they didn't take out much time, but it was the ease with which they rode away from the other GC guys. While he still didn't look 100% yet, so you've got to feel that Quintana is just going to be getting stronger with every day now, and the other contenders must be feeling its just a matter of time until he puts in the real big one. Fair play to Majka and Aru who put in a great effort to drag there way back up to the other two, and Poels did some great work for Uran and Evans.
I had a feeling Evans may struggle once in the big mountains, and think he will probably fall right out of the top 5 as we go through the week, but was surprised to see Uran look so vulnerable so quickly. It was possibly just a bad day for him but doesn't bode well with the likes of Quintana only going to get stronger, and the stages only going to get harder!
Cataldo was looking around, like inviting an attack which would see him get beat, instead of putting his head down and pushing for the line. Although MC won't complain about his failure, I'm sure. SP
Worth noting was the observation of Rolland getting support for his attack from the outset, and still not threatening for the win. When he went on the first climb I thought hit was really smart for the team to offer him support in Thurau, and thought that such support is all he might require to win, but alas it's still not a dominant Rolland we've seen in the past. SP
SwingingPick,
I NEVER questioned MC's integrity and note that you were the one to "initially make the comment that started all this".
I simply looked for his thread on the football forum (for further info on the Giro and to see who he had backed) not realising he had started many threads on the football forum re the Giro.
I was a little surprised not to find his comments on the only thread I found started by MC on the football forum and simply asked him to clarify the matter for other forum readers of his excellent Giro threads.
I have APOLOGISED to MC on the 'Stage 12' forum, on the 'Football Forum' and by personal PM so that there is no further misunderstanding.
I note MC has backed Uran at 14/1 for the overall and thought he would have backed Quintana originally AND indeed in the last few days at 4/1.
© CM iyc
I NEVER questioned MC's integrity and note that you were the one to "initially make the comment that started all this".
I simply looked for his thread on the football forum (for further info on the Giro and to see who he had backed) not realising he had started many threads on the football forum re the Giro.
I was a little surprised not to find his comments on the only thread I found started by MC on the football forum and simply asked him to clarify the matter for other forum readers of his excellent Giro threads.
I have APOLOGISED to MC on the 'Stage 12' forum, on the 'Football Forum' and by personal PM so that there is no further misunderstanding.
I note MC has backed Uran at 14/1 for the overall and thought he would have backed Quintana originally AND indeed in the last few days at 4/1.
© CM iyc
CMiyc,
I think that you have apologised shows the character of a gentleman, and I accept your understanding of the matter, however I'm not going to get involved in this discussion any further. I've been chatting with MC on here since 2011, and whilst I accept I started all this, I did so with the use of an emoticon. End of story.
So far all you have managed to contribute is a bunch of useless quotes and arguments. If you'd like to add your thoughts on the upcoming stage in the Giro than I know some of us might welcome reading your opinion.
Cheers,
Dan
I think that you have apologised shows the character of a gentleman, and I accept your understanding of the matter, however I'm not going to get involved in this discussion any further. I've been chatting with MC on here since 2011, and whilst I accept I started all this, I did so with the use of an emoticon. End of story.
So far all you have managed to contribute is a bunch of useless quotes and arguments. If you'd like to add your thoughts on the upcoming stage in the Giro than I know some of us might welcome reading your opinion.
Cheers,
Dan
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