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This is the route tomorrow. Compared to the next TT it's a flat TT but it clearly does have some climbing in it, which will obviously favour the GC guys (Evans, Uran, Pozzovivo, Quintana etc) over the TT specialists like Malori, Castroviejo and Siutsou. But I don't think the degree of climbing is enough to give them that much of an advantage, and none of the GC guys are that hot in a TT anyway. Cadel Evans was pretty good a few years ago but he hasn't been that great recently. I certainly don't think Evans should be as short as 7/2. Pozzovivo is a wild card, he's always been a poor TTer but did a breathtaking and probably well-fuelled TT in the Vuelta last year to finish 3rd.
None of the top rank time-triallists are really here. If we look at the World Time Trial Championship (on a very flat course) from last year won by Tony Martin with Wiggins in 2nd place we have to go all the way down to 8th place to find someone that is racing the Giro; Adriano Malori (2 mins 51 secs behind Martin). Malori is rightly favourite, although he really struggled today with a crash, looked to have lost about half the skin off his back and I think he'd prefer a shorter flatter course anyway so I wouldn't be in a rush to back him. Siutsiou was 10th (2 min 59 behind Martin), Roche (13th), Castroviejo (14th), Grabsch (20th) and Zoidl (30th) are the only others to figure that day who are here.
Will the hillier course suit Suitsiou? In my opinion yes. He's been climbing well this week, and is only 5 min 42 secs back in the overall standings in 19th place. That's another thing in his favour, Malori and Castroviejo have got to look after Quintana's overall aspirations so may not go 100%. Sky have no other overall contender so Sioutsiou can go all out, and also has the bonus of potentially climbing up the overall standings if he makes time on the other contenders - some of whom could lose a lot of time tomorrow.
In summary, Siutsiou is a stonking bet at anything above 10/1 or 12/1 tomorrow. I'm staggered I was able to get 66/1. Kelderman and Cataldo are both realistic winners as well, and I've also had a win/top 3 on Le Bon (125/1) and Zoidl (100/1) but my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou.
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Without a doubt Malori is the best TT rider here, and has had a great season in TT's beating the likes of Martin, Wiggins and Cancellara on more than one occassion. He is a worthy favourite but like you MC I think the first third maybe too difficult for him and he is definitely better over shorter distances. He will almost certainly be the fastest over the second half of the course, and will be all out for the win, just not enough value in his price for me with the course doubts and possible fitness issues after today.
If Malori doesn't win then it could be anyone of 10 or 15 riders, there is no real stand out at all, the likes of De Gendt, Siutsou, Castroviejo, Pirazzi, Kelderman, Hesjedal, Pozzovivo, etc all might fancy there chances of the win.
The one to me who looks way over priced each way is QUINTANA at 150/1 with pp , he has had some very good TT performances over the last couple of years and this course should suit him fine. There is no way he will want to lose any more time to Evans or Uran, and so with starting before them he is going to have to really go for it to post a time they can't beat. The question mark is obviously still his fitness after last weeks fall but thats why he is such a big price.
The other rider i'm going to have a small ew on is BOASSON HAGEN again! at 40/1. He was fancied to go well today but was never involved, didn't make any efforts to get in the break and soon dropped out of the peleton on the final climb. Could he have been saving himself for this?? A year or two ago he was regularly in top 10's in TT's, i remember him finishing 3rd in the 42k TT in the dauphine behind Wiggins and martin, ahead of the likes of Malori, Evans etc. He hasn't really been competitive in any TT in the last 2 years, but clearly has the ability and seems to be in top form at the moment.
If Malori doesn't win then it could be anyone of 10 or 15 riders, there is no real stand out at all, the likes of De Gendt, Siutsou, Castroviejo, Pirazzi, Kelderman, Hesjedal, Pozzovivo, etc all might fancy there chances of the win.
The one to me who looks way over priced each way is QUINTANA at 150/1 with pp , he has had some very good TT performances over the last couple of years and this course should suit him fine. There is no way he will want to lose any more time to Evans or Uran, and so with starting before them he is going to have to really go for it to post a time they can't beat. The question mark is obviously still his fitness after last weeks fall but thats why he is such a big price.
The other rider i'm going to have a small ew on is BOASSON HAGEN again! at 40/1. He was fancied to go well today but was never involved, didn't make any efforts to get in the break and soon dropped out of the peleton on the final climb. Could he have been saving himself for this?? A year or two ago he was regularly in top 10's in TT's, i remember him finishing 3rd in the 42k TT in the dauphine behind Wiggins and martin, ahead of the likes of Malori, Evans etc. He hasn't really been competitive in any TT in the last 2 years, but clearly has the ability and seems to be in top form at the moment.
Malori has tweeted this evening that he has been "destroyed" by his injuries. Even if he is physically ok there's every chance he won't have slept well. Not sure De Gendt will be let off the leish for this one. Should be an interesting stage and it's nice to have a time trial in a Grand Tour that's so open.
Backing de Gendt - 3rd in 2013 TdF Stage 11. I don't think OPQS will throw away a realistic chance of a Stage win.
The first individual test of the Giro in this race against the clock, and there's nowhere to hide for the riders with aspirations for claiming one of the three steps of the GC at the finish in Trieste.
Firstly, I note this from MC: "my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou." With your fine performance so far in this Giro, especially in comparison to my own, I should have little in the way of opposition for your Siutsiou recommendation, however I cannot find one result which is bringing me closer to you, and whilst I won't oppose him outright, I cannot have him.
As I've already said, Evans is giving every indication that he is riding as well as when he won the Tour in 2011, so it stands to reason that he'll have a similar cracking result in the ITT as he did then, when 2nd in Grenoble behind Tony Martin. On that basis it is reasonable that the Books have installed him as favourite, here. However, as MC states he hasn't been that great recently. Nevertheless, on 2011 form he is a worthy favourite, and should he win this or give a good performance, he'll confirm some of these questions surrounding his likelihood for the GC win. I would be backing him, but like better value elsewhere, much around HB's positions, it appears.
Quintana is an interesting price, I had him as a 25/1 shot initially, before seeing Rogers' price and then thought Quintana should be closer to 15/1. Certainly he should be amongst: Kelderman, Uran, De Gendt, and even Rogers after his nice win in yesterday's stage. Of course the injury concerns are out there and detracting his claims, but as I've said earlier I think that may be him foxing and as such a ploy to resist the pressure of expectation at being such a short price in only his second GT.
It is worth lining-up his results in last year's tour; with firstly a 54th on stage 11 over 33kms, which was on more of a power road, and was never going to suit his small frame and characteristics. And then 6th on stage 17 over 32kms, was at some altitude, but in terms of vertical climbing it is at least a little closer to the 2011 stage 20 around Grenoble, and therefore more similar to here than stage 11 in 2013 Tour. And without such excellent GC TT riders here, except for the Evans of 2011, he comes right into calculations, let alone comes into calculations at such large odds. I think a place finish is well within his reach, and with the E/W (1/4odds on 3places = 24/1) price being better than the best price for those mentioned for the win by more than three times (Kelderman @7/1) he carries lots of value.
EBH, for the same reasons as I've outlined yesterday, is wanting to return to his promising 2011 form, and on a stage which may suit him after his performances on similar parcours so far this Giro, I think he is some value on an E/W basis, for a small "saver" stake.
***** Quintana. 100/1 E/W (various). The clear standout value. Best bet. Special.
* EBH. 40/1 E/W (various). Not to be discounted lightly. Has place claims in an open affair.
Good luck to all,
SP
Firstly, I note this from MC: "my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou." With your fine performance so far in this Giro, especially in comparison to my own, I should have little in the way of opposition for your Siutsiou recommendation, however I cannot find one result which is bringing me closer to you, and whilst I won't oppose him outright, I cannot have him.
As I've already said, Evans is giving every indication that he is riding as well as when he won the Tour in 2011, so it stands to reason that he'll have a similar cracking result in the ITT as he did then, when 2nd in Grenoble behind Tony Martin. On that basis it is reasonable that the Books have installed him as favourite, here. However, as MC states he hasn't been that great recently. Nevertheless, on 2011 form he is a worthy favourite, and should he win this or give a good performance, he'll confirm some of these questions surrounding his likelihood for the GC win. I would be backing him, but like better value elsewhere, much around HB's positions, it appears.
Quintana is an interesting price, I had him as a 25/1 shot initially, before seeing Rogers' price and then thought Quintana should be closer to 15/1. Certainly he should be amongst: Kelderman, Uran, De Gendt, and even Rogers after his nice win in yesterday's stage. Of course the injury concerns are out there and detracting his claims, but as I've said earlier I think that may be him foxing and as such a ploy to resist the pressure of expectation at being such a short price in only his second GT.
It is worth lining-up his results in last year's tour; with firstly a 54th on stage 11 over 33kms, which was on more of a power road, and was never going to suit his small frame and characteristics. And then 6th on stage 17 over 32kms, was at some altitude, but in terms of vertical climbing it is at least a little closer to the 2011 stage 20 around Grenoble, and therefore more similar to here than stage 11 in 2013 Tour. And without such excellent GC TT riders here, except for the Evans of 2011, he comes right into calculations, let alone comes into calculations at such large odds. I think a place finish is well within his reach, and with the E/W (1/4odds on 3places = 24/1) price being better than the best price for those mentioned for the win by more than three times (Kelderman @7/1) he carries lots of value.
EBH, for the same reasons as I've outlined yesterday, is wanting to return to his promising 2011 form, and on a stage which may suit him after his performances on similar parcours so far this Giro, I think he is some value on an E/W basis, for a small "saver" stake.
***** Quintana. 100/1 E/W (various). The clear standout value. Best bet. Special.
* EBH. 40/1 E/W (various). Not to be discounted lightly. Has place claims in an open affair.
Good luck to all,
SP
Its a tricky day to pick the winner, i think the weather may play a part. I have just picked a couple of speculative picks at bigger prices. Vladmir Gusev at 150, and Brent Bookwalter at 500.
Good point about the weather. GC guys may have a disadvantage if it rains.
Taken Pirazzi and Hepburn for top 3 finishes at 6/1 and 20/1 in case the weather comes in after the start. Other early contenders are Tuft and De Gendt but I don't fancy those two as much.
Zoidl suffering illness on rest day and deterioration of form since Romandie, obviously giving up plans for descent GC placement or going for a stage, has to do horsework for the Team now, can't see him play a role in ITT today
OnTheChase 22 May 14 04:02 Joined: 09 Nov 05
Backing de Gendt - 3rd in 2013 TdF Stage 11. I don't think OPQS will throw away a realistic chance of a Stage win.
Rain has come, this could be a superb shout
Backing de Gendt - 3rd in 2013 TdF Stage 11. I don't think OPQS will throw away a realistic chance of a Stage win.
Rain has come, this could be a superb shout
Zoidl not in contention, cashing for my lay bet.
Looks like it's drying while de Gendt at least had rain on the 2nd half of the way, so I can't see an advantage for him
Looks like it's drying while de Gendt at least had rain on the 2nd half of the way, so I can't see an advantage for him
Ulissi flying 
OPQS going well as Poels goes through second behind Ulissi at first checkpoint. Bodes very well for Uran.
OPQS going well as Poels goes through second behind Ulissi at first checkpoint. Bodes very well for Uran.
On Quintana 5/4 (also in doubles/trebles with Henrik Stenson & Rose/Langer & Monty in Wentworth/Harbor Shores) - Evans losing more in TT atm.
Uran takes pink, superb ride by Evans in the end to limit losses and get 3rd on the stage I place laid Evans and Betfair have incorrectly settled it as winner.
Had Uran at 14/1 today, my main bet other than Sioutsiou. Also got Uran at 18/1, my main bet for the overall and he's now odds on.
I place laid Evans and Betfair have incorrectly settled it as winner.Had Uran at 14/1 today, my main bet other than Sioutsiou. Also got Uran at 18/1, my main bet for the overall and he's now odds on.
There is just nowhere to hide in the ITT, and the results always spill the relevant facts out afterwards for scrutiny.
The performance by Quintana was disappointing, and my view that he has been largely foxing up till now was evidently based on incomplete information. The superficial injuries suffered in his crash are -- as I expected -- just that, minor in nature, however since that Montecassino stage 6, he has been fighting the symptoms of a cold, which makes his 4th place finish in stage 8 and the subsequent ability to finish with the GC contenders in latter stages, very handy. With his breathing being the major effect of the cold, presently, it suggests that his body is trying to eject the build-up of phlegm from his chest. If the phlegm can come away cleanly, taking into account that it's been building for about a week, then he should be closer to being and feeling better than in a worse state. I don't like that he is taking antibiotics as that may weaken his body unnecessarily, and at +3.29 back he is a long way behind.
Nevertheless, if Quintana can buy his time by staying with the Contenders and not losing anymore time in the rapidly approaching High Mountains, whilst waiting for the stage where he feels strong enough to bury himself in a fully-committed attack, then he can severely narrow the margin, and force a significant fluctuation in the market.
The stage 19 ITT still looks like it could be a blood bath, an all-out brutal war of suffering, where minutes can be lost and found amongst the GC contenders. Uran proved last year that he is susceptible to having bad days in the High Mountains and losing large chunks of time. If Quintana can have that one good day, he can still shake this race and market up, I believe.
With only the one position in the winner market being Quintana, I may be a little biased and approaching this with rose-tinted glasses, however I have decided that my only play is to again take a small increase in my stake on Quintana at this inviting price, whereby I increase my average. Uran is far too short for a rider who lost lots of time in this race last year in the High Mountains, and I am now more confident that this is not the Evans of 2011 that could easily cover +37secs. Only Pozzovivo looks like he has some claims for podium, but I can't have him at +2.32 back.
MC -- I wouldn't have thought that with the Giro you're having, you would need to show yourself as an after-timer for this stage!
Cheers,
SP
The performance by Quintana was disappointing, and my view that he has been largely foxing up till now was evidently based on incomplete information. The superficial injuries suffered in his crash are -- as I expected -- just that, minor in nature, however since that Montecassino stage 6, he has been fighting the symptoms of a cold, which makes his 4th place finish in stage 8 and the subsequent ability to finish with the GC contenders in latter stages, very handy. With his breathing being the major effect of the cold, presently, it suggests that his body is trying to eject the build-up of phlegm from his chest. If the phlegm can come away cleanly, taking into account that it's been building for about a week, then he should be closer to being and feeling better than in a worse state. I don't like that he is taking antibiotics as that may weaken his body unnecessarily, and at +3.29 back he is a long way behind.
Nevertheless, if Quintana can buy his time by staying with the Contenders and not losing anymore time in the rapidly approaching High Mountains, whilst waiting for the stage where he feels strong enough to bury himself in a fully-committed attack, then he can severely narrow the margin, and force a significant fluctuation in the market.
The stage 19 ITT still looks like it could be a blood bath, an all-out brutal war of suffering, where minutes can be lost and found amongst the GC contenders. Uran proved last year that he is susceptible to having bad days in the High Mountains and losing large chunks of time. If Quintana can have that one good day, he can still shake this race and market up, I believe.
With only the one position in the winner market being Quintana, I may be a little biased and approaching this with rose-tinted glasses, however I have decided that my only play is to again take a small increase in my stake on Quintana at this inviting price, whereby I increase my average. Uran is far too short for a rider who lost lots of time in this race last year in the High Mountains, and I am now more confident that this is not the Evans of 2011 that could easily cover +37secs. Only Pozzovivo looks like he has some claims for podium, but I can't have him at +2.32 back.
MC -- I wouldn't have thought that with the Giro you're having, you would need to show yourself as an after-timer for this stage!
Cheers,
SP
You're quite right SP, just reviewing the thread I see I didn't post the Uran bet. I thought I had. I did post it on the thread I started on the football forum though, and I will copy and paste it here for your amusement.
marychain1 21 May 14 22:22 Joined: 05 Apr 05
Added Uran 14/1 also with Padds, and laid Evans to place on here.
Added Uran 14/1 also with Padds, and laid Evans to place on here.
Had to tweet them to get them to correctly settle my Evans place lay as a loser 
marychain / SwingingPick,
I did post it on the thread I started on the football forum though
MC,
YOUR POSTS ("on the thread you started") ON THE FOOTBALL FORUM
marychain1 • May 21, 2014 10:54 PM BST
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow..........................
........... are prime contenders.
THE VERY NEXT POST IS
marychain1 • May 22, 2014 8:59 AM BST
Looking at the weather forecast ...........................
.................and Hepburn (20/1) for top 3 finishes as this is a perfectly feasible scenario.
Has your post of the 21 May 14 22:22 been removed ?
I did post it on the thread I started on the football forum though
MC,
YOUR POSTS ("on the thread you started") ON THE FOOTBALL FORUM
marychain1 • May 21, 2014 10:54 PM BST
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow..........................
........... are prime contenders.
THE VERY NEXT POST IS
marychain1 • May 22, 2014 8:59 AM BST
Looking at the weather forecast ...........................
.................and Hepburn (20/1) for top 3 finishes as this is a perfectly feasible scenario.
Has your post of the 21 May 14 22:22 been removed ?
marychain1
marychain1 21 May 14 21:12 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 22,335 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Yes money back if an Italian wins too - Malori and Cataldo are both big players.
joe39
joe39 21 May 14 22:03 Joined: 14 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 7,656 | Blogger: joe39's blog
Last of the 33's is at Hills.
Good luck MC.
cruso
cruso 21 May 14 22:13 Joined: 19 Jan 06 | Topic/replies: 476 | Blogger: cruso's blog
Do you have a track record in `stonking` bets ?
marychain1
marychain1 21 May 14 22:22 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 22,335 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Added Uran 14/1 also with Padds, and laid Evans to place on here.
marychain1
marychain1 21 May 14 22:23 Joined: 05 Apr 05 | Topic/replies: 22,335 | Blogger: marychain1's blog
Have a look at my Giro record so far cruso - its a bit further down
joe39
joe39 21 May 14 22:24 Joined: 14 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 7,656 | Blogger: joe39's blog
Hills has gone Laugh
30/1 888 Sport and Uni bet, 28/1 b365 and here.
If you're going to accuse someone of lying at least get your factts right imo, just out of politeness
Typical of this forum. You put loads of work in trying to come up with angles and value bets, you forget to post one bet in all the threads and someone decides to play amateur detective...hounds you through three different threads demanding an answer to his questions, copying and pasting stuff, putting your quotes in bold type. Accusing you of...well I'm not sure really, aftertiming? Lying? Both? Despite the fact the bet was actually posted the night before, and then also posted a picture of the bet afterwards.
And here was me thinking it was us against the bookies...
And then when you point out in one simple sentence that he is wrong he can't even man up enough to say "right, sorry I was wrong", ah well, guess that is just life these days
And here was me thinking it was us against the bookies...
And then when you point out in one simple sentence that he is wrong he can't even man up enough to say "right, sorry I was wrong", ah well, guess that is just life these days
Actually catchmeifyoucan, it IS on the thread you reference as well
marychain1 21 May 14 22:54
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow. It's technically a flat TT but it does have some climbing in it, which will obviously slightly favour the GC guys (Evans, Uran, Pozzovivo, Quintana etc) over the traditional TT specialists like Malori, Castroviejo and Siutsou. But I don't think the degree of climbing is enough to give them that much of an advantage, and none of the GC guys are that hot in a TT anyway. Cadel Evans was pretty good a few years ago but he hasn't been that great recently. I certainly don't think Evans should be as short as 7/2. Pozzovivo is a wild card, he's always been a poor TTer but did a breathtaking and probably well-fuelled TT in the Vuelta last year to finish 3rd.
None of the top rank time-triallists are really here. If we look at the World Time Trial Championship (on a very flat course) from last year won by Tony Martin with Wiggins in 2nd place we have to go all the way down to 8th place to find someone that is racing the Giro; Adriano Malori (2 mins 51 secs behind Martin). Malori is rightly favourite, although he really struggled today with a crash, looked to have lost about half the skin off his back and I think he'd prefer a shorter flatter course anyway so I wouldn't be in a rush to back him. Konstantin Siutsiou was 10th (2 min 59 behind Martin), Roche (13th), Castroviejo (14th), Grabsch (20th) and Zoidl (30th) are the only others to figure that day who are here.
Will the hillier course suit Suitsiou? In my opinion yes. He's been climbing well this week, and is only 5 min 42 secs back in the overall standings in 19th place. That's another thing in his favour, Malori and Castroviejo have got to look after Quintana's overall aspirations so may not go 100%. Sky have no other overall contender so Sioutsiou can go all out, and also has the bonus of potentially climbing up the overall standings if he makes time on the other contenders - some of whom could lose a lot of time tomorrow.
In summary, Siutsiou is a stonking bet at anything above 10/1 or 12/1 tomorrow. I'm staggered I was able to get 66/1. Kelderman and Cataldo are both realistic winners as well, and I've also had a win/top 3 on Le Bon (125/1) and Zoidl (100/1) but my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou.
I've also added Rigoberto Uran at 14/1. I think he should beat Evans, he was very strong for OPQS in the TTT and has been getting stronger as the race has gone on.
Uran and Sioutsou bets are with PP so money back if Stage is won by an Italian, for which Malori and Cataldo are prime contenders.
marychain1 21 May 14 22:54
Paddy Power made a rick here offering 66/1.
This is the route tomorrow. It's technically a flat TT but it does have some climbing in it, which will obviously slightly favour the GC guys (Evans, Uran, Pozzovivo, Quintana etc) over the traditional TT specialists like Malori, Castroviejo and Siutsou. But I don't think the degree of climbing is enough to give them that much of an advantage, and none of the GC guys are that hot in a TT anyway. Cadel Evans was pretty good a few years ago but he hasn't been that great recently. I certainly don't think Evans should be as short as 7/2. Pozzovivo is a wild card, he's always been a poor TTer but did a breathtaking and probably well-fuelled TT in the Vuelta last year to finish 3rd.
None of the top rank time-triallists are really here. If we look at the World Time Trial Championship (on a very flat course) from last year won by Tony Martin with Wiggins in 2nd place we have to go all the way down to 8th place to find someone that is racing the Giro; Adriano Malori (2 mins 51 secs behind Martin). Malori is rightly favourite, although he really struggled today with a crash, looked to have lost about half the skin off his back and I think he'd prefer a shorter flatter course anyway so I wouldn't be in a rush to back him. Konstantin Siutsiou was 10th (2 min 59 behind Martin), Roche (13th), Castroviejo (14th), Grabsch (20th) and Zoidl (30th) are the only others to figure that day who are here.
Will the hillier course suit Suitsiou? In my opinion yes. He's been climbing well this week, and is only 5 min 42 secs back in the overall standings in 19th place. That's another thing in his favour, Malori and Castroviejo have got to look after Quintana's overall aspirations so may not go 100%. Sky have no other overall contender so Sioutsiou can go all out, and also has the bonus of potentially climbing up the overall standings if he makes time on the other contenders - some of whom could lose a lot of time tomorrow.
In summary, Siutsiou is a stonking bet at anything above 10/1 or 12/1 tomorrow. I'm staggered I was able to get 66/1. Kelderman and Cataldo are both realistic winners as well, and I've also had a win/top 3 on Le Bon (125/1) and Zoidl (100/1) but my main bet, and biggest bet of the race so far is Siutsiou.
I've also added Rigoberto Uran at 14/1. I think he should beat Evans, he was very strong for OPQS in the TTT and has been getting stronger as the race has gone on.
Uran and Sioutsou bets are with PP so money back if Stage is won by an Italian, for which Malori and Cataldo are prime contenders.
SwingingPick • May 23, 2014 5:38 AM BST
MC -- I wouldn't have thought that with the Giro you're having, you would need to show yourself as an after-timer for this stage! Laugh
Cheers,
SP
"Accusing you of...well I'm not sure really, aftertiming? Lying? Both?"
MC,
None of the above,
Just simply following up on others comments.
© CM iyc
MC -- I wouldn't have thought that with the Giro you're having, you would need to show yourself as an after-timer for this stage! Laugh
Cheers,
SP
"Accusing you of...well I'm not sure really, aftertiming? Lying? Both?"
MC,
None of the above,
Just simply following up on others comments.
© CM iyc
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