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Stage 11
COLLECCHIO - SAVONA
21th May 2014
249 KM - Medium Mountain
COLLECCHIO - SAVONA
21th May 2014
249 KM - Medium Mountain
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This looks like a stage for the break. The GC boys and the time-trial specialists will all have their eyes on tomorrow's key time trial. The sprinters know they have no chance of a win with the big climb near the end so depending on the make-up of the morning escape, no-one will have any interest in chasing down a break.
We start in Collecchio, near Parma. We move from Emilia Romagna to Liguria, and head towards the Med, but before we get to the coast there's a cat 2 climb to negotitate. This looks like a fairly tough climb but I can't imagine anyone will be taking it too quickly this early into such a long stage. This climb will also ensure the break gets a decent distance down the road. At the coast we head west through Genoa and all the way to Savona, where we turn north, climb the Cat 2 Naso di Gatto and then head back to Savona for a flat finish. The final climb will doubtless decide the destination of the stage. It's 9.6km at 6.5%, so its not an easy climb, and the start is 211km into the race! Gatto is crested 220km into the race, and still 30km from the finish line. The descent is roughly 25km long, before 4km of flat to the line.
Columbia will be keen to get people in the break, as will Neri Sottoli and Bardiani. Orica, Katusha and Europcar will all be keen to get involved. With mountain points to play for you'd expect to see Pirazzi and Arrendondo in there as well.
We start in Collecchio, near Parma. We move from Emilia Romagna to Liguria, and head towards the Med, but before we get to the coast there's a cat 2 climb to negotitate. This looks like a fairly tough climb but I can't imagine anyone will be taking it too quickly this early into such a long stage. This climb will also ensure the break gets a decent distance down the road. At the coast we head west through Genoa and all the way to Savona, where we turn north, climb the Cat 2 Naso di Gatto and then head back to Savona for a flat finish. The final climb will doubtless decide the destination of the stage. It's 9.6km at 6.5%, so its not an easy climb, and the start is 211km into the race! Gatto is crested 220km into the race, and still 30km from the finish line. The descent is roughly 25km long, before 4km of flat to the line.
Columbia will be keen to get people in the break, as will Neri Sottoli and Bardiani. Orica, Katusha and Europcar will all be keen to get involved. With mountain points to play for you'd expect to see Pirazzi and Arrendondo in there as well.
Agree this has got break written all over it, and I would add Sky to the list of teams who will be looking to get someone in the break.
My main fancy for tomorrow is Boassen Hagen, though can't believe he is so short, thought i'd be able to get better than 7/1! Was expecting more like 16's at least!
He was strong in the break a couple of days ago, and was really aggressive again today. Hopefully didn't take too much out of himself today, as i think tonorrows stage looks well suited to him.
Have also had a small ew on Bongiorno at 100/1. He has been riding well all year including recently at Trentino, hasn't done much here yet, but will surely be looking to make a mark at some point. He is very capable of a big ride if getting in to the break.
My main fancy for tomorrow is Boassen Hagen, though can't believe he is so short, thought i'd be able to get better than 7/1! Was expecting more like 16's at least!
He was strong in the break a couple of days ago, and was really aggressive again today. Hopefully didn't take too much out of himself today, as i think tonorrows stage looks well suited to him.
Have also had a small ew on Bongiorno at 100/1. He has been riding well all year including recently at Trentino, hasn't done much here yet, but will surely be looking to make a mark at some point. He is very capable of a big ride if getting in to the break.
Boassen-Hagen and Hansen were the two men I had ear-marked for this stage, but I haven't backed either because they're too short. I've instead gone with Arashiro 150/1 and De Gendt 66/1.
Bling Matthews has abandoned the Giro.
**** paying 5 places tomorrow.
**** paying 5 places tomorrow.
Agree with MC and HB on EBH.
Edvald Boasson Hagen took his breakthrough win as a 22yo neo-pro in the 2009 Gent-Wevelgem one-day race. The next year he was signed by Sky and began riding in the WT. He confirmed the high opinion observers had of his talent by winning two stages in the 2011 Tour, but has largely been in the wilderness ever since, especially in the Classics. This year looks a little different for him -- he had a promising start to the season in the Spanish one-day classics 13/2/6 and continued that form into Belgium, by picking-up a podium in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in very tough conditions, before riding prominently in KBK. His cobbled classics campaign was full of consistency, but also a litle disappointing since he was given leadership of the team in Paris-Roubaix, but couldn't quite crack a good result. Here at the Giro however, he has been full of positive riding, showing in stage 3 that he still has a good sprint by finishing 6th behind the pure sprinters in the bunch. Then looking highly impressive when attacking on the climb up to Viggiano in stage 5, before fading to finish 29th, but finishing with the first group. Again, yesterday, whilst he finished back in the field in 90th place, he was the one leading the peloton on both the ramp and then along the flat at a very high pace indeed, at one stage looking like he might be capable of breaking away. He has shown very good strength and whilst people have been questioning whether he can get back to the form he showed in 2011, and with speculation about his future with SKY rife, he is wanting to answer them in the best of ways by taking a stage win. I wouldn't have thought this was a stage for him with the cat.2 climb up to Naso di Gatto looking too steep, however after witnessing his strength on similar terrain earlier, there is little wonder why the Books have installed him as favourite.
Whilst we'll have the inevitable early attack, I think the fireworks should come on the cat.2 climb, with the 28kms -- most of it a power descent -- a suitable distance from the finish for a break to hold to Savona. Agree that the break will be permitted to go on account of the climb coming lose to the finish and the peloton cruising to the line as the long descent is a great opportunity for a rest on what is one of the longest stages of the race, right before the ITT.
*** Edvald Boasson Hagen may be short, but I believe he'll give an honest account of himself and is appealing on a WIN ONLY basis at 7/1 (various). Rated highly. Good prospects.
** Pieter Weening is full of confidence, has earned the freedom to attack on a stage like this, and he should be one of the main contenders. E/W 50/1 (various) is good value. Warrants close consideration.
* Wilco Kelderman is one I'm going to try again on a stage which suits and after his positive riding earlier. E/W 66/1 (****). Keep safe.
Luca Paolini is threatening to impose himself on the race and rescue a result for the beleaguered Katusha outfit, however at 33/1 (betvictor) he is far too short and the climb looks perhaps a little too tough. Maybe later. Pass.
Good luck to all,
SP
Edvald Boasson Hagen took his breakthrough win as a 22yo neo-pro in the 2009 Gent-Wevelgem one-day race. The next year he was signed by Sky and began riding in the WT. He confirmed the high opinion observers had of his talent by winning two stages in the 2011 Tour, but has largely been in the wilderness ever since, especially in the Classics. This year looks a little different for him -- he had a promising start to the season in the Spanish one-day classics 13/2/6 and continued that form into Belgium, by picking-up a podium in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in very tough conditions, before riding prominently in KBK. His cobbled classics campaign was full of consistency, but also a litle disappointing since he was given leadership of the team in Paris-Roubaix, but couldn't quite crack a good result. Here at the Giro however, he has been full of positive riding, showing in stage 3 that he still has a good sprint by finishing 6th behind the pure sprinters in the bunch. Then looking highly impressive when attacking on the climb up to Viggiano in stage 5, before fading to finish 29th, but finishing with the first group. Again, yesterday, whilst he finished back in the field in 90th place, he was the one leading the peloton on both the ramp and then along the flat at a very high pace indeed, at one stage looking like he might be capable of breaking away. He has shown very good strength and whilst people have been questioning whether he can get back to the form he showed in 2011, and with speculation about his future with SKY rife, he is wanting to answer them in the best of ways by taking a stage win. I wouldn't have thought this was a stage for him with the cat.2 climb up to Naso di Gatto looking too steep, however after witnessing his strength on similar terrain earlier, there is little wonder why the Books have installed him as favourite.
Whilst we'll have the inevitable early attack, I think the fireworks should come on the cat.2 climb, with the 28kms -- most of it a power descent -- a suitable distance from the finish for a break to hold to Savona. Agree that the break will be permitted to go on account of the climb coming lose to the finish and the peloton cruising to the line as the long descent is a great opportunity for a rest on what is one of the longest stages of the race, right before the ITT.
*** Edvald Boasson Hagen may be short, but I believe he'll give an honest account of himself and is appealing on a WIN ONLY basis at 7/1 (various). Rated highly. Good prospects.
** Pieter Weening is full of confidence, has earned the freedom to attack on a stage like this, and he should be one of the main contenders. E/W 50/1 (various) is good value. Warrants close consideration.
* Wilco Kelderman is one I'm going to try again on a stage which suits and after his positive riding earlier. E/W 66/1 (****). Keep safe.
Luca Paolini is threatening to impose himself on the race and rescue a result for the beleaguered Katusha outfit, however at 33/1 (betvictor) he is far too short and the climb looks perhaps a little too tough. Maybe later. Pass.
Good luck to all,
SP
Use Spoilsports for your Kelderman bet as they pay 5 places.
I'm surprised no one has mentioned nick roache. I think this stage is tailor made for him and fancy him to have Go today
I wonndered about Roche. Two things put me off, the distance and whether he is looking after Majka.
Still all together 30km+ into the stage. Peloton fighting not to let anyone with GC aspiriations get away. Surely a strong break will form on the Cento Croci?
Roche is in the break!
Bongiorno, Moser, Mourey, Polanc, Monsalve, Quemeneur, Sicard, Thurau, Preidler, Moreno, Vorganov, Deignan, Roche and Rovny.
Bongiorno, Moser, Mourey, Polanc, Monsalve, Quemeneur, Sicard, Thurau, Preidler, Moreno, Vorganov, Deignan, Roche and Rovny.
I've got some matched at 1000 on any other rider. Not sure who in the break that means but glad to see it so high in Betfair's in-play market.
I've laid Moreno at prices between 2.4 and 3.0. Not sure this break will stay out as so many big teams have missed it. Also, he's deinitely got the best pedigree over the distance but the 4 miles flat at the end will surely suit a more powerful rider.
No idea what's going to happen here. Will the break stay out? Won't it? If it all comes back together then it will be ripe for an attack from a non-GC rider. I've taken a chance on Hesjedal at 50/1 in play with Padds. Garmin could do with some good news after the news that Wegmann had to abandon today with a complete tear of the hamstring 
33km to go, onto the climb...
My book is
Moreno - big red
field - green
Roche - bigger green
Cunego - best result
Hesjedal - 2nd best result
My book is
Moreno - big red
field - green
Roche - bigger green
Cunego - best result
Hesjedal - 2nd best result
Hesjedal beaten into 7th in the sprint as well.
SP hope you used Spoilsports for 5 places - Kelderman 4th
SP hope you used Spoilsports for 5 places - Kelderman 4th
The curse of my GC bets strikes again! Ulissi was going really well and then as soon as I back him, he crashes and ends up losing 4mins 31s on a stage! Game over for him, not sure how badly he is hurt but was said to be in a lot of pain.
Siutsiou 33-1 tomorrow with Bet £3.65 and 7-1 for a place! Oh my god that must be the best be of the entire race!
Swerve that! Paddy Power are 66/1. Good Christ that is just plain wrong. I make him second favourite behind Malori.
Argh... Kelderman 4th, and I had only 3 places. 
MC -- I provide best bet prices for the convenience of the largely GB/Ireland forum users, so they know what prices to look for on BF if they go that way. Here in Australia, I've only got five Australian (cycling) accounts, and three of the five offer only three places, the other two have win only; Centreb#t, WilliamH!ll trades as $portingbet, Bet$365 Australia, and PaddyP0wer trades as Sport$bet. The T@b, Australia's former government-owned betting shop and now split up between the major states (and territories, I think) is the only Bookie in Australia with shopfronts, but as you can imagine the over-rounds are insanely high, and there's not much point betting with them except for the fact that their small minimum bet size is handy for the 1000/1 shots. Ladbroke$ are making a recent play for a slice of the market in Australia, but haven't been enticed by the prices to open an account as yet. SP
MC -- I provide best bet prices for the convenience of the largely GB/Ireland forum users, so they know what prices to look for on BF if they go that way. Here in Australia, I've only got five Australian (cycling) accounts, and three of the five offer only three places, the other two have win only; Centreb#t, WilliamH!ll trades as $portingbet, Bet$365 Australia, and PaddyP0wer trades as Sport$bet. The T@b, Australia's former government-owned betting shop and now split up between the major states (and territories, I think) is the only Bookie in Australia with shopfronts, but as you can imagine the over-rounds are insanely high, and there's not much point betting with them except for the fact that their small minimum bet size is handy for the 1000/1 shots. Ladbroke$ are making a recent play for a slice of the market in Australia, but haven't been enticed by the prices to open an account as yet. SP
I think CM took notice of Arredondo's performance up the final cat.2 climb, because I certainly did. The Colombian pocket-rocket has got some talent that's for sure, more than I initially thought when CM and I raised him for discussion, and threw a few coins on him in the GC. He was going really nicely up the final climb, attacking and making good progress. Preidler was riding well to stay close but he was turning himself inside-out, whilst Arredondo looked like he could take off at any time, even though comm Sean Kelly thought he was at his limit.
I am now really interested in his rides for the High Mountains, if he can play it patient and smart, he looks like he might have the ability to stay with the favourites, and perhaps even pinch a few seconds here and there. SP
I am now really interested in his rides for the High Mountains, if he can play it patient and smart, he looks like he might have the ability to stay with the favourites, and perhaps even pinch a few seconds here and there. SP
When the Australian veteran Rogers attacked I was not surprised, and thought he had a chance. He looked good going down, but like most I thought he'd get caught on the flatter section. However, the flatter section wasn't as long as I thought. Sensing there were stronger riders for the sprint included in the bunch which made the main selection, the riders doing the chasing, mainly BMC, turned off just enough in one latter section in the last few kms for Rogers to win. Good win -- the Australians are going beautifully and that's a big story in this Giro -- and the main consensus was accurate in that a breakaway won. 
SP
SP
Did you notice that the time went down to 11 seconds and then Samuel Sanchez knocked off the chase after Evans came up and had a word, meaning the gap stretched back out and Rogers won?
Sympathy for a compatriot who has been through a rough time is how it seemed following Evans' press conference, but could there be something else? With Ejissen's abandonment BMC could be a little thin on the ground in the high mountains. I wonder if we might have seen Evans buying a few favours from another English-speaking team. Majka's aims are not necessarily in competition with Evans as he is probably after a podium, so this could be a reality.
Sympathy for a compatriot who has been through a rough time is how it seemed following Evans' press conference, but could there be something else? With Ejissen's abandonment BMC could be a little thin on the ground in the high mountains. I wonder if we might have seen Evans buying a few favours from another English-speaking team. Majka's aims are not necessarily in competition with Evans as he is probably after a podium, so this could be a reality.
The GPS saying 11 seconds was nonsense (as it has been for much of this race) - never < 20 seconds
Because they were spent. The two guys chasing - Priedler had been in the break, Zardini attacked on the climb, both gave everything to win the stage. Rogers was fresh. And he's a strong rouleur. As soon as downhill was done and they had to chase on flat roads they were soon gone
That's not how it happened though. They made most of the time back on the flat (between 4km and 1.5km to go) not on the descent, with Zardini and then predominantly Sanchez driving it, but then you can actually see them ease off, they go from one line to a distinct bunch just after 1.5km to go.
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