Giro d'Italia Stage 10

Bit concerned about this injury to Quintana. Apparently took a dead leg in a fall in the first week which is not clearing up. Anyone got more on this ? Tyler Hamilton for a place tomorrow, Tues.

Meant Tyler Farrar, sorry

Stage 10
MODENA - SALSOMAGGIORE TERME
20th May 2014
173 KM - Flat



Right then - back to it. I've had a pretty good Giro so far from a betting point of view. Long may it continue. Tomorrow is a pan-flet stage that on paper looks fairly straightforward. I don't expect the break to make it tomorrow. They had their fun on Saturday, and what fun it was. I also think they'll have their eyes on tomorrow's hillier stage and I have a couple of likely contenders for that one in the back of my mind.

There's a few roundabouts and turns in the run-in but the final 700 yards are straight (for once) which means a fast finish, proper lead outs and a good clean fight. Cannondale and Giant have got the best trains but Kittel is gone and I don't think Mezgec or Viviani are as fast or as hungry as Bouhanni. Nizzolo would be my primary worry for the win, as he is definitely getting closer. Swift and Mathews probably aren't quite fast enough on the flat to win, although having said that either could place tomorrow. Swift already has one podium albeit on a messy sprint and Matthews and Orica will be focussed again now they don't have to worry about staying in pink. Farrar could be a factor, although he hasn't been that close yet.

The price on Bouhanni is getting tighter and tighter. Nizzolo is getting close but I think the confidence winning Grand Tour stages will give him can push Nacer Bouhanni on further so he's my man again tomorrow.

As for the overall, Quintana's injury shouldn't be a factor tomorrow or Wednesday, so as long as he's more or less recovered by Thursday's ITT his backers shouldn't worry. I'm tempted to back him now, I think he should be shorter than his start price with Purito out of the race. I'm happy with my each way back of Uran at 18/1 though, as I think he should make time over Evans in the high mountains and if Quintana doesn't recover that would make Uran's position very strong.

There's an interesting stage tomorrow which fits an angle I think might work, so no bet for me here as it looks quite a tough stage to work out, like MC has outlined with many chances to choose from.

From what I remember Quintana's injury came on stage 6 to Montecassino when he crashed. Not much more out about his condition during the Rest Day, however in a Spanish audio interview which is about 10 hours old, he said the following: "It should be reassured that there is still much ahead". Add to this that the team have come out and said the they don't see his time behind Evans as a big gap, and one might think that he's foxing, a ploy to keep the pressure from off his shoulders whilst knowing that he'll have to bury himself on one of the High Mountain stages appearing this weekend. Fighting words without pressure. Also, no evidence of major bandages or strapping anywhere on his body from what I can tell. His profile/position on the bike does look a little different, however he is usually out of the saddle on climbs without major steep gradient. I think the ITT will show a lot, but I'll cover this when MC opens the thread.

Good luck to all,
SP

With 5 mountain stages there's plenty of time bonuses for Quintana et al to play with, never mind the time gaps that could open. The interesting thing for me is that Evans and Quintana marked each other on Saturday, allowing Pozzovivo to go away. Who else will be allowed to sneak away and who will have to be chased?

Good stuff MC -- bagged another one! And got the  place for Bling! Too good! Excellent ride by Bouhani following wheels like that after good work by Chavanel.

No worries netheron, glad you found something worth following up for your own research.

I don't know what I'm looking at...