Giro d' Italia Stage 9

Not far off a 200/1 winner yesterday as Kiserlovski just got pipped on the line by Ulissi, but the place money was extremely welcome. I don't think I'll be seeing any more prices like that for the Croatioan climber. Today's stage is another one for the climbers but I think a breakaway could go all the way here.

Stage 09
LUGO - SESTOLA
18th May 2014
172 KM - Medium mountain




We start off today in Lugo near Ravenna and head to Bologna, the capital of Emilia Romagna. Bologna is where my missus went to University. The total stage is 170k, and the first 110km is flat. There is a significant amount of climbing in the last 60k, with a Cat 3, a Cat 4 and a summit finish on the Cat 2 at Sestola. The final climb is 16.5km at 5.5% average. The climb isn't severe enough to cause major damage on the GC, although there are 3.5km with an average of 10% in the middle of the climb. It will come back to gether after this section though, and the faster men like Ulissi, Kiserlovski and Evans should beat the pure climbers like Quintana because the last 3km only have a 3.9% gradient.

From a betting proposition the main question is whether the break can stay out. If there are no GC contenders in it then this is a real possibility today as we've got the rest day tomorrow and it has been a very hard start to the Giro. Lampre might be motivated to chase a break, as Ulissi would be among the favourites, and BMC will help, but whether that is enough to bring a break back remains to be seen.

Androni, Bardiani, Cannondale, Colombia, Garmin, Lotto, Neri Sottolo, Orica, Europcar, Giant, Katusha and Sky are now hunting chases so the likes of Godoy, Pirazzi, Chalapud, Haas, Hansen, Durbridge and Cataldo could fancy targetting the break today. Nothing wrong with a watching brief today, don't fancy backing GC guys at big prices. If the break is caught Diego Ulissi is again a strong favourite. But there's some big prices out there on possible break candidates - Cataldo 66/1 and Godoy 375/1 will do for me.

hunting stages*

Thrown £2 at Arashiro and Durbridge, both at 1000

Arashiro seems to have gone under the radar despite rinding really well

Gonna hope Tjallingii gets into a break again today

I thought yesterdays stage showed how open this Giro might be, looked like Uran and Evans were out of their comfort zones, and even Quintana didn't look that comfortable, probably still feeling the effects of Thursday. Theres a good chance those three will be happy to just mark each other again today. Ulissi is looking very strong and is obviously going to be in the mix, but offers no value. I agree with SP regarding Kelderman, thought he looked strong yesterday and have backed him at 25/1. Have also backed Hesjedal at 100/1, was with the group of favourites yesterday, and todays climb should suit him.

i doubt quintana will attack on this state... ulissi might me the favorite for this state, but if he is the favorite group in the end, he will win the sprint.

Evans and uran no way, but i might be wrong.

Even though I had Quintana for the stage win yesterday, the strategy was still unknown about his chances and I wanted to be on side in case he decided to make a good show. Now it's a little more likely that he is being managed to be patient, in so far as that I don't think it's best for him to get back small amounts of time from Evans each stage, but rather go for a big chunk of time in the High mountains in one big go, later. Therefore it's unlikely he will go for the stage win, preferring to stick with Evans and keep his energy levels in reserve for later. SP

....So I agree with HB in so far as the principals should mark each other out, and we get a late attack from an opportunist out of that group, or a breakaway rider holds on, which is less likely.

None of the climbers will attack on the sharp bit today imo it would be a waste of energy as the bigger men can just time trial back on with 3-4km of almost flat at the end of the stage

Have laid Malacarne a shade of odds on, slighlty prefer Weening's chances of the two and gives me the chasers as well if they can get back that gap.

Cracking win that for Weening

Picked the wrong Orica guy for the break

With both my GC bets down  after thursdays carnage, i've decided to go in again.
Quintana has come out this evening and stated that he is struggling with injuries from the crash, particularly with a buttock injury! And saying he doesn't feel good right now. So i'm starting to think we might be in for a bit of a shock winner this year.

First one i've backed is Pozzovivo at 10/1 here and 8/1 ew Hills, sadly missed the boat slightly as he was obviously much bigger this morning. He showed today that right now he is climbing better than any of his rivals, and seems to have a really good team working for him. He has to be in with a great chance of at least making the podium here.

The second one i've backed is Ulissi 125/1 ew a bit more speculative, but seems a very big price for a rider in great form. He is clearly climbing very well right now, and has a devastating finishing kick which may will help gain more time bonuses over the next couple of weeks. Obviouslhy still has to prove he can stay with the favourites when it comes to the real big mountains, but on what i've seen in the last 2 days i don't see why he won't.

Ulissi said even he was surprised that he was able to stay with them on Saturday, I don't think he'll be able to stay with the real mountain goats on the really long steep climbs. Still, one of mine is Kiserlovski and I suspect he might fall into the same category.

I backed Ulissi at 500/1 antepost with three different bookmakers last year antepost and was gutted when they went with Niemiec instead and he finidhed 6th.

I've still got my main bet Uran going for me, and Kiserlovski as a bonus but Niemiec is my other GC bet and he's gone.

I'm struggling for my GC bets as well.

Basso is the only one hanging in there.

Scarponi, Roche & Gadret(No s****ing at the back) have gone. I have the field v Quintana, so still looking decent in that sense.

Out of the limited climbs we've seen Majka looks impressive out of the big price riders. Going to try and hit losers rather than pick winners for the rest of the race.

I raised the point in the pre-race discussion concerning the best value, not necessarily the winner of the race, and clearly that rider is Evans, although Pozzovivo has shortened some. Quintana is now at a better price than my ante-post bet, and because of my stage betting losses I didn't lay him as he shortened in the first week below evens, and so still have a red field.

I'm quite concerned by Quintana's position on GC, for whilst I know he has a big ride in him to take a chunk of time on Evans and indeed the GC contenders, I was hoping to have had him at a small profit by now, and having the option of re-investing that into any potential dangers like Evans, for instance. Instead, there are injury complaints from the young Colombian which I'm hoping sounds more like he is foxing, although the rest day has come at the right time for him.

One thing which has pleased me over the last two Mid Mountain stages about Quintana is the fact that he never lost contact and compounded his GC problem, but got through each stage and remained safe and patient. If he can get his injury complaint sorted, or perhaps it's not even that bad, then I still believe he wins this race on class.

I'm a bit stuck in this race, on account of my stage betting bank losses, and whilst Quintana winning covers me for a win in my overall bank, having him abandon would be beyond rescuing this race for me. I could invest more into him and the other GC dangermen, but that would only increase my stake in the winner market and I've learnt not to make such plays in the past. With my hands tied, I can only increase my stake in Quintana at this better price, and hope that one good stage from him in the High Mountains shortens his price into profitable trade.

Whilst BMC might not be happy to have the Maglia Rosa so early, Evans has shown he is an experienced campaigner and there is still good strength in his legs. He actually looks a lot like when he won the Tour, always fighting and remaining positive, and staying patient. Ulissi has shown he can take time back from Evans, but Ulissi may not be as powerful in the High Mountains, and at 1.43secs back that may be too much of an ask in such difficult terrain. Pozzovivo had a good ride yesterday, but he is still 1.20 behind, and .23secs behind Uran, in fact. Moreover, he was .50secs behind Evans in Trentino and that was over only four stages. SP

I'm not convinced about Evans at all. He looks to me like he will lose time in the high mountains. I think he is a very solid lay at the moment, and I'm also tempted to lay him top 3. TT will be a massive shake-up. I have absolutely no idea who will do the best in the TT of the top 3 or 4.

Quintana should be over his injury concerns by Thursday. The bigger concern is his overall race shape, he's not had a lot of racing this year, but I think he's still the man to beat and should take time off everyone in the very high stuff.

Pozzovivo looked very strong yesterday, although he's always liable to throw in an off day. The impressive thing for me has been the strength of Ag2r. They have looked about the strongest team so far, and tactically excellent.

Uran is difficult to assess. He has been fairly quiet, although he did did his toe in the water with a little attempted escape after Pozzovivo went. I would expect Uran to outperform Evans in the big mountains, but I wouldn't be extremely confident.

You're right to say Majka has looked strong. I think he can finish above Evans in GC. As for the rest, I don't know who is a credible GC threat. I'd love to see Kiserlovski compete but don't know whether that's feasible. Ulissi comes into that bracket as well.

Is laying Evans a realistic option for you at this stage SP?

Whilst I accept that Evans is a high probability of blowing-up in one of the High Mountain stages to come this weekend, I'm not entirely confident that there are riders who would take advantage in both hands of such a scenario in such a large measure as to take the Pink from off his shoulders. The only rider that can do that with good confidence is Quintana, but I already have too much riding on him staying fit and healthy to have even bigger red on Evans.

All laying Evans does, is green up a field of riders who are a long way back behind Evans, and are without the obvious skill and talent to draw back level without Evans contributing to his own undoing by having a major blow-up. I made that mistake in 2011 and I am not going to repeat it again now -- there are still other plays on offer. Plus Evans' price is not very competitive, while some of those looking for liquidity are just settling on what's on offer with Quintana.

With speculation rife on Quintana's injury concerns, having my high bids picked-up by the traders is a far better play than laying Evans, since a strong ITT from Quintana will have him much shorter than he is presently -- as his price continues to get chased out.

I think you've hit the nail on the head, with respect to Quintana's condition not injury, in so far as it appears to me that he is easing into this race and attempting to find form slowly, through not exerting himself too much and remaining patient. He has the confidence in his ability to find that necessary power and feeling eventually, and he has showed patience to not attack when others were expecting him to do so in the past Mid Mountain stages.

That scenario makes much more sense than him being injured. By taking into account the important fact that he has kept in contact with Evans in the last two stages, whilst knowing that a big attack is required in the High Mountains to win this race, he has pressure of a lesser nature, since whilst he knows that a big attack is required eventually, he is the one who gets to decide (according to how he is feeling) when that stage appears.

It was good to see Uran recently albeit briefly, and whilst I would have him as the best of the GC contenders on paper, I still think it is a big ask to have him closing the margin to Evans without Evans contributing to his own demise with a major blow-up in the mountains. In 2011 Tour win he fought hard and hung tough, even though there were situations where he might have lost the race, and others with less Aussie mongrel might have lost the race easily. So I think that Evans still looks the strongest from Uran, Pozzovivo, Majka, Ulissi, and (I can't believe I'm saying this) Kiserlovski.

Quintana remains my one and only position in the winner market as I continue to increase stake and improve price average. SP