Giro Stage 8

Stage 08
FOLIGNO - MONTECOPIOLO
17th May 2014
179 KM - Medium mountain

The phoney war is over, let the real war commence. The climbing starts on Saturday's stage. It's been an incredible Giro already, it's been a breathless start to the best  Grand Tour. Before I go through the stage itself, let's have a look at the state of play.

1 MATTHEWS MichaelOrica GreenEDGE29:34:19
2 EVANS CadelBMC Racing Team0:21
3 URAN RigobertoOmega Pharma - Quick-Step1:18
4 MAJKA RafalTinkoff-Saxo1:25
5 MORABITO SteveBMC Racing Team,,
6 RABOTTINI MatteoNeri Sottoli,,
7 SANTAROMITA IvanOrica GreenEDGE1:47
8 ARU FabioAstana Pro Team1:51
9 WELLENS TimLotto Belisol 1:52
10 BASSO IvanCannondale 2:06
11 QUINTANA NairoMovistar Team2:08
12 KELDERMAN WilcoBelkin-Pro Cycling Team2:11
13 BOUET MaximeAG2R La Mondiale,,
14 POZZOVIVO DomenicoAG2R La Mondiale,,
15 ULISSI DiegoLampre-Merida2:22
16 KISERLOVSKI RobertTrek Factory Racing 2:24
17 SCARPONI MicheleAstana Pro Team2:28
18 SÁNCHEZ SamuelBMC Racing Team2:34
19 CATALDO DarioTeam Sky2:36
20 BRAMBILLA GianlucaOmega Pharma - Quick-Step2:46
21 LUDVIGSSON TobiasTeam Giant-Shimano2:47
22 MONFORT MaximeLotto Belisol 2:48
23 ROGERS MichaelTinkoff-Saxo2:50
24 ROLLAND PierreTeam Europcar3:01
25 POELS WoutOmega Pharma - Quick-Step3:10
26 CUNEGO DamianoLampre-Merida3:13
27 PREIDLER GeorgTeam Giant-Shimano3:14
28 DUARTE FabioTeam Colombia3:23
29 FINETTO MauroNeri Sottoli3:28
30 VUILLERMOZ AlexisAG2R La Mondiale,,
31 GENIEZ AlexandreFDJ.fr ,,
32 NIEMIEC PrzemyslawLampre-Merida3:41

This is the current GC standings. We'll see most of the non-climbers drop away over the next few days and the GC will take on the shape we'd have expected before the start of the race. Minus the Rodriguez, Roche, Martin etc of course. So Evans will take the pink leader's jersey tomorrow and will hope to add to his lead of 57 seconds over Uran (2), 1.04 over Majka (3), 1.45 over Basso (4), 1.47 over Quintana (5), 1.50 over Pozzovivo (6). Everyone else is 2.00+ behind Evans.

Let's look at the prices. Quintana is best priced Evens despite his time deficit. Cadel is 2nd favourite, into 11/4 best price after his great start. My pick before the start Uran is 4/1 with most books although Bet Victor are not convinced and go 6/1. Because Purito has abandoned Quintana has only lengthened a small amount from his 10/11 starting point. So where will Quintana make his time up? I don't expect Quintana to make up any time over the weekend. These climbs aren't too severe, and suit Evans pretty well. Not only that but Quintana may still be getting over the cuts and bruises from Thursday. Stage 10 is flat and Stage 11 won't see any moves from the GC guys. Next Thursday's TT (stage 12) will be crucial but I wouldn't expect to see Quintana making up (much) time there either. Stage 13 is flat so potentially we aren't going to see Quintana making up time on Evans until Saturday 24th May. The last week is this:

Sat 24th May - High Mountains
Sun 25th May - High Mountains
rest day
Tues 27th May - High Mountains
Weds 28th May - Flat
Thurs 29th May - High Mountains
Friday 30th May - Mountain TT
Saturday 31st May - High Mountains

So, we have 5 High Mountain stages and a mountain TT. Can Quintana make the time up? Resoundingly yes in my eyes. Evans has looked very strong so far, but we have encountered neither the gradients or altitude that will see Quintana at this best. Some of the stages in the final week are brutal, and we could see some big time gaps. A bigger concern would be whether he is in top shape. He will need to not drop too much time if any on the time trial on Thursday, so he will hope he's over any injuries by then. He may also be further back by then as Saturday and Sunday's stages definitely suit Evans and if Quintana is not up to speed Evans could extend his lead. So Evans may get shorter and Quintana may get to a bigger price. I intend to wait until this time next week before backing Quintana and I expect to get a bigger price. Of course, as we have seen already this week, anything can happen before then.

The situation is very finely poised and should mean that we see absolute fireworks for the rest of the Giro. Here's Saturday's stage:



We start in the Umbrian town of Foligno, where yesterday's stage finished. We have three main climbs and they are all towards the end of the race. We pass through the towns of Aqualanga and Urbania (made up names if ever I've heard them) before heading North West to the race's first Cat 1 climb, Cippo di Carpegna. The Carpegna gets up to almost 1400 metres, and is steep. This one will cause some serious damage to the peloton. The climb is nearly 8k at an average of 8.7% but the first couple of kilometres is much less steep. The last 5k of this climb average 10%. The top of this climb is 35k from the end of the stage.

The descent from the Carpenga is long and fairly technical and after the carnage of recent stages everyone will hoping the rain stays away. The riders then face the Cat 2 Villaggio Del Lago. This is 9.3k at 6.2% and in itself it probably wouldn't cause too many issues but in between the two Cat 1s it is a further softening up blow. There's a descent for 3.5k and we're onto the final climb, the Montecopiolo. The Montecopiolo is 6.3k long with an average gradient of only 6.5% but that gradient varies, mixing steep and shallow sections, meaning it will be difficult for riders to get into a rhythm on the climb. The final 300 metres are the steepest, with a gradient of 13%.

Purito and Dan Martin may well have enjoyed this stage, and it looks like a stage designed for Quintana with its fearsome ramps, but I wonder whether he is in tiptop shape. The bookies still have him as favourite but he certainly didn't seem capable of assisting in the chase of Evans on Stage 6 and he apparently suffered cuts and abrasions. Paddy Power had Cadel Evans at 22/1 at first show, which is astonishing. I've backed him at 7/1 with Lads. Dani Moreno carries Katusha's hopes of salvaging anything from this tour now, and this is the sort of finish he could do well on. The rest of the climbers are young guns like Majka, Niemiec and Arredondo. The young Trek rider has been backed into third favourite for this stage and but I have to admit I've chanced a few quid on Robert Kiserlovski again. He must surely be Trek's main GC hope now and he looked like he was keen to lead the fight to Evans on stage 6. I genuinely don't know whether he can win this but I've taken my chance at 200/1. Ulissi is Lampre's highest man on GC but this stage surely suits Niemiec better. I've backed him at 50/1. Lastly I've had a small bet on Pierre Rolland at 40/1 on Sportsbook here. He's as short as 14/1 elsewhere, and the biggest price anywhere else is 25/1. He's won on much bigger climbs than this and if he's in form he could go well.