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Stage 07
FROSINONE - FOLIGNO
16th May 2014
211 KM - Flat
A primarily flat stage tomorrow from Frosinone that heads North past Rome to Foligno near Perugia. There is an early category 3 climb and then a late category 4 climb which comes just after two uncategorised climbs about 30km from the end. If it ends in a bunch sprint I would have Nacer Bouhanni as a big favourite, but whether it does or not remains to be seen. The climbs are far enough from the end that the sprinters teams will have no worries about getting dropped at that stage, but the likelihood of the bunch sprint will depend on the nature of the breakaway. Break specialists will have been eyeing this stage up as their first possible chance. Orica, FDJ and Cannondale would be the teams most motivated to do the work at the front of the peloton and it should give the teams with remaining GC contenders time to lick their wounds ahead of the first climbing of any note that starts on Saturday and Sunday.
FROSINONE - FOLIGNO
16th May 2014
211 KM - Flat
A primarily flat stage tomorrow from Frosinone that heads North past Rome to Foligno near Perugia. There is an early category 3 climb and then a late category 4 climb which comes just after two uncategorised climbs about 30km from the end. If it ends in a bunch sprint I would have Nacer Bouhanni as a big favourite, but whether it does or not remains to be seen. The climbs are far enough from the end that the sprinters teams will have no worries about getting dropped at that stage, but the likelihood of the bunch sprint will depend on the nature of the breakaway. Break specialists will have been eyeing this stage up as their first possible chance. Orica, FDJ and Cannondale would be the teams most motivated to do the work at the front of the peloton and it should give the teams with remaining GC contenders time to lick their wounds ahead of the first climbing of any note that starts on Saturday and Sunday.
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I've had a little tickle on Arashiro and Adam Hansen, both 200/1 with VC bet, in case a break makes it but my main bet is Nacer Bouhanni and I'm happy to take the 15/4 on the Sportsbook here.
Happy to offer the market 3/1 on Nacer Bouhani.
The summit of the final climb, the cat.4 Valico della Somma comes at 40kms from the finish, and is therefore just at that uncomfortable distance for a small break to hold ahead of the trains leading the peloton behind. There are many factors involved in the likelihood of a breakaway succeeding, but one likely opinion which might form the basis for an accurate understanding, is the early difficulty of the stage for the sprinters' teams. Whilst I agree it is a relatively flat stage on profile, a closer inspection suggests that the riders will be climbing more than they'd wish to from a stage described as "flat". I mean, they begin climbing from the very beginning, probably even throughout the 3-5km neutral zone, and it appears that even the descent won't be pure, but rather a "power descent", after which they then have to overcome those uncomfortable ramps and/or risers (which are obviously not flat) throughout the middle part. Add to this that, 1.) the stage is over 200kms long, 2.) that it comes after a tough day, 3.) the fact that there are two medium mountain stages to
come next, and 4.) that there's some likelihood of more wet roads today since the forecast is for patchy light drizzle in the morning -- and it might become a situation that the seventh day spent in the saddle is a form of rest day for the riders.
I agree that stage hunters will have pencilled-in this day from the start, and whilst a break will likely go from the very start, I think a selective group who decide to form and combine after the final climb, is the one with the best opportunity to stay away to the end. There are too many scenarios to consider, but this one is the one I keep coming back to. The sprinters' teams will have realised that this is a likely day for the breakaway, and I don't think that just one team can control the break or will be willing to do so. GIA look happy with their results so far, OGE might not want to try their luck too much, CAN might very well have one of their two likely candidates involved in the break, and I question the strength of the other teams, including FDJ, TFR and SKY, to work at the head of the peloton for the entire stage.
Am looking for one or two to back, still.
Good luck to all,
SP
The summit of the final climb, the cat.4 Valico della Somma comes at 40kms from the finish, and is therefore just at that uncomfortable distance for a small break to hold ahead of the trains leading the peloton behind. There are many factors involved in the likelihood of a breakaway succeeding, but one likely opinion which might form the basis for an accurate understanding, is the early difficulty of the stage for the sprinters' teams. Whilst I agree it is a relatively flat stage on profile, a closer inspection suggests that the riders will be climbing more than they'd wish to from a stage described as "flat". I mean, they begin climbing from the very beginning, probably even throughout the 3-5km neutral zone, and it appears that even the descent won't be pure, but rather a "power descent", after which they then have to overcome those uncomfortable ramps and/or risers (which are obviously not flat) throughout the middle part. Add to this that, 1.) the stage is over 200kms long, 2.) that it comes after a tough day, 3.) the fact that there are two medium mountain stages to
come next, and 4.) that there's some likelihood of more wet roads today since the forecast is for patchy light drizzle in the morning -- and it might become a situation that the seventh day spent in the saddle is a form of rest day for the riders.
I agree that stage hunters will have pencilled-in this day from the start, and whilst a break will likely go from the very start, I think a selective group who decide to form and combine after the final climb, is the one with the best opportunity to stay away to the end. There are too many scenarios to consider, but this one is the one I keep coming back to. The sprinters' teams will have realised that this is a likely day for the breakaway, and I don't think that just one team can control the break or will be willing to do so. GIA look happy with their results so far, OGE might not want to try their luck too much, CAN might very well have one of their two likely candidates involved in the break, and I question the strength of the other teams, including FDJ, TFR and SKY, to work at the head of the peloton for the entire stage.
Am looking for one or two to back, still.
Good luck to all,
SP
I can't see this stage staying out, which means a bunch sprint is likely. I've got all my sprint eggs in the Bouhanni basket, so to speak, although I've also taken a little bit of Swift at 16/1 each way.
Loving this Giro.
Bouhanni 
Enjoy my money
...Fair play to you MC
Cheers,
Dan
Enjoy my money
...Fair play to you MC
Cheers,
Dan
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