Giro d'Italia Stage 6

marychain1 07 May 14 15:48 Joined: 05 Apr 05
Bet £3.65 offering evens about a Nace Bouhanni stage win. Might not be able to beat Marcel Kittel at his best, but plenty of oportunities for a stage win here, and I think he's the second best sprinter here so would expect him to get his nose in front at least once.

Forgot about this bet until I just logged on

Tomorrow's stage has been extended due to a landslide to 257kms. Long stage!

The end climb up to Montecassino is a category two but in truth it doesn't appear that tough. It's 8.5km at 5.1% average, which is a lot after 257km and it's taken at speed this will be a hard one for any of the fast men to hang on. But the climb flattens out right at the top. If anyone with a half decent sprint is still there they can mop up. As such it will take a lot to beat Ulissi and he could go off pretty short. Ben Swift, Boassen Hagen or Bling Matthews, can do the distance, but can they do a climb this long at the likely speed they will go? Boassen Hagen and Bling just didnt have the kick on the 7-8% gradient yesterday but the final km or so is only 2-3% here.

I cannot officially confirm that the distance of this stage has been increased by 10 kms to 257kms, however it is highly likely, but even at 247kms it is still one of the two longest stages of the Giro, and one of seven stages over 200kms.

I'm hoping that Ulissi settles into the default favouritism position with a very short price, and that looks to be the case as his price continues to shorten with the Books -- since I believe he is unsuited over this trip and am willing to take him on.

Ulissi has only won three races over 200kms in his career prior to yesterday's win, and only one at anywhere close to the significant distance on offer here. Most recently, in 2013, he won the Giro dell'Emilia, a 200km beyond category one-day race in Italy with two climbs in the middle followed by circuit laps up and down a ramp. In 2012, he won the 200km GP Industria Commercio Artigianato Carnaghese, another Italian one-day race with gradual burning ramps to the finish. And in 2011, his first ever win over 200kms was also the longest race he has won in his career, coming at 230kms in stage 17 of the the Giro, when he was on GT debut at only 21 years-of-age. That stage looks harder than today's since it had a cat.2 and then a cat.3 climb toward the end part of the race, however it concluded with a long downhill "power-descent" stretch, before a 7km flat run-in to the finish.

Yesterday, Ulissi admitted that; "I actually suffered on the descent but felt better on the climb to the line." He then went on to put some unnecessary pressure on himself by making assurances about the quality of the next generation of Italian cyclists.

Ulissi's Polish team-mate Niemiec offered good early assistance yesterday, however it was Bling Matthews that brought Ulissi into the race when it counted. He was quite perceptive of Evans' move and he got out of his saddle knowing that it was the dcisive moment of the race, so fair play for that and then having the strongest kick. I don't think he can repeat.

I question his ability to back-up solid efforts such as yesterday's win with another Top-10 or selective finish, let alone with another win. The only performances which might support his claims came in this year's early-season display in the Tour Down Under, when he had four Top-4 results, including a win and a good 2nd behind Porte. However, the average distance of those four races was at a paltry 145kms. So, in effect, he will be riding two of those stages in one day here essentially, and I haven't found anything which suggests he has the ability to do so and win, let alone doing so after another tough climb, which they won't see beforehand as it won't be a circuit.

If Niemiec can offer similar assistance, then Ulissi will make the selections, however I think his kick for the relatively flat finish will be dulled by 1.) the distance of the stage, 2.) the long length of the climb at over 8kms, and 3.) the 10% section of the climb to kick off proceedings -- and on that basis I am more than happy to oppose him with a lay position.

Good luck to all,
SP

There were three riders which caught my attention in the finale of yesterday's stage, and each have a focus on a good performance for the GC. Uran showed good fight to the line, while Arredondo performed in the manner I suspected he can at this class level. However, it was Evans who impressed me most. He was isolated in the final main selection group and then seemed to be shuffled down a little to lose his place, as KAT with Purito and Arredondo and EBH made the most imposing
attack, before being closed down by Bling Matthews who had Ulissi on his wheel doing little. However, Evans had to come back from a long way back to just get back on terms, which would have cost him a lot, and then once everything was back together he was the first to attack, but just didn't have the power to ride over Ulissi.

As CM has said recently about Evans, that he always seems to be riding at the right place, and since it's unlikely he'll make such a mistake twice in a row as to lose his place in the bunch, I think he can go close again here. Having said all that, it seems everyone is thinking the same thing and at 8/1 I'm not excited by his E/W price and won't be backing him.

Purito got his own way and the race run to suit with good assistance from his team, so it was disappointing to see him missing his exceptional kick when it mattered -- it must be that he just didn't have the legs, but at 17/1 (**) he offers good E/W value to hit back strongly today, and is my pick as the likely winner.

Good luck to all,
SP

I'm opposing Ulissi today on price and going with Eddy Boassen-Hagen. He looked very comfortable on the climb and although the final stretch of 7-8% meant it was too steep for him to kick he will be able to on the 2-3% today if he's there at the end. Ben Swift (50/1!) falls into the same category and to be honest a lot depends on which one of them feels good today and whether Swift goes for the intermediate points. I've covered Bling Matthews for a small win.

Thoughts and prayers with Caruso -- that looked quite poor for him. SP

Well another win for me, and Evans the main beneficiary in the race. I got 7/1 on Matthews and also managed to get more on at evens on the exchange. But obviously the main concern is for Caruso . Rodriguez lost 7m+ as well as a team mate - out of the race now.

Niemiec lost big time as well

Awful luck for Katusha, 3 of their riders in hospital tonight, Purito, Caruso, and Vicioso. It sounds like Purito has injured his ribs again, probably made worse the fratures he had in the Amstel, would imagine he is out of the race.

All 3 katusha riders now officialy out, Purito broken ribs and dislocated finger, Caruso and Vicioso both broke femurs! I've never known so many serious injuries in one stage, as Landa, Villella, Pirazzi, Bouet, Amador and Brajkovic are all also in hospital with suspected broken bones of one sort or another, and Roche, Aru, and Tuft among those suffering severe cuts and abrasions, and Scarponi with bruising all down one side! Absolute carnage, will be a very depleted field starting tomorrows stage.

Absolute mayhem. Astonishing injury list. That bit by the rounabout where the crash happened looked absolutely ridiculously treacherous. The Giro is like a beautiful but deadly fish - you could watch it all day but when it turns nasty you are glad you aren't actually in it.

Have just read that Quintana suffered some severe cuts and abrasions, and is very sore too! Thought it was strange that he never kicked on when his two teammates put in a big pull and had cut the gap to the Evans group. Hope he is ok, or this Giro is in danger of falling apart.

Same HB -- have never known there to be so many injuries in one stage, period. So many serious ones as you point out, also. Have some memory of a distant stage in the Tour where there plenty of individual crashes on a slippery descent several years ago, but nothing like the amount of hospitalizations since most rode away with only grazes on that day.

In retrospect, with all the rain the race has had so far -- I believe there's been rain and/or some sections of wet road during all the stages so far -- and it's quite amazing that all this carnage happened in just one stage, within a few feet, in fact. They were going along, though.

I didn't like that the cameras were on Caruso for so long -- obviously just couldn't look away -- since from the heli angle it looked like a pool of blood might have been forming around his chest, and the ambulance was taking forever which was just not right and contributing to the tense situation. And then the camera angles were getting closer and closer on him, making it quite unsettling. I believe he'll be okay, after re-injuring an existing injury, so glad it wasn't as serious as the situation looked initially.

Not sure Evans will make too many new fans with his actions, since I believe he knew that a crash had occurred and continued on despite. However, it just comes back to that rubbish we saw with OGE attempting to neutralize the race on stage 4 when Nacer Bouhani won. It was meant to be about solidarity and safety for and amongst the peloton on a slippery day of fast riding going into the sprint, but when a serious crash occurs as in this case, it's FU to other riders because I'm going for minutes not seconds. Inconsistent behaviour amongst riders of the peloton just shows the absurdity of previous actions, is my point, especially when they had no right to protest in the first place.

Need to look at this in some much more detail, but Evans is coming into range as a decent lay, imo. The only obvious danger is that if these rainy conditions continue and more crashes ensue leading to abandonments, he becomes the only GC rider left remaining and his price crashes beyond rescue or salvage. Also, the liquidity and over-round are not exactly friendly for such a play at the moment, but am going to give it more scrutiny. SP