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I quite like the look of Evans and EBH for this punchy finish. Don't think it's tough enough for the pure climbers yet prob a touch too difficult for the sprinters
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I've got Ulissi, Swift and Matthews as my shortlist of 3. Poels 100/1 tempting as well.
Stage 05
TARANTO - VIGGIANO
14th May 2014
203 KM - Medium mountain
Cracking looking stage tomorrow starting in Taranto, just at the top of the heel of the foot of Italy and heading Southward along the sole of the foot before heading West and inland to Viggiano. Classified as a medium mountain stage, it is fairly flat except for a category 3 climb with 70k to go. But it does have a little sting in the tail, with two category 4 climbs right at the very end. We crest the penultimate climb with 13k to go, and then there is a fast descent and straight into the final climb. With 190km before the first of these climbs I can't see the sprinters being on the premises, but some of the punchier men like Swift and Matthews may fancy this finish. I'm not sure the climb is quite steep enough for the guys like Rodrgiguez and Quintana, even if they will be keen to take back some seconds, so the punchers may dominate. Diego Ulissi (7/1) is favourite and I make him the most likely to win tomorrow, he's can climb, he has a good kick and he is a good tactical rider, which can often be the difference in these sorts of finishes. I've missed out on the fancy prices on Matthews as he opened at 16/1 with Padds, but I'll also be having smaller each way plays on Ben Swift (22/1) and Wouter Poels (100/1).
I want to see some evidence that Swift and EBH's roles will be reversed on this kind of finish before backing EBH. Think it suits both of them pretty well.
TARANTO - VIGGIANO
14th May 2014
203 KM - Medium mountain
Cracking looking stage tomorrow starting in Taranto, just at the top of the heel of the foot of Italy and heading Southward along the sole of the foot before heading West and inland to Viggiano. Classified as a medium mountain stage, it is fairly flat except for a category 3 climb with 70k to go. But it does have a little sting in the tail, with two category 4 climbs right at the very end. We crest the penultimate climb with 13k to go, and then there is a fast descent and straight into the final climb. With 190km before the first of these climbs I can't see the sprinters being on the premises, but some of the punchier men like Swift and Matthews may fancy this finish. I'm not sure the climb is quite steep enough for the guys like Rodrgiguez and Quintana, even if they will be keen to take back some seconds, so the punchers may dominate. Diego Ulissi (7/1) is favourite and I make him the most likely to win tomorrow, he's can climb, he has a good kick and he is a good tactical rider, which can often be the difference in these sorts of finishes. I've missed out on the fancy prices on Matthews as he opened at 16/1 with Padds, but I'll also be having smaller each way plays on Ben Swift (22/1) and Wouter Poels (100/1).
I want to see some evidence that Swift and EBH's roles will be reversed on this kind of finish before backing EBH. Think it suits both of them pretty well.
BTW it might be worth remembering PP's offer of refunds when an Italian wins the stage tomorrow - Ulissi is favourite & Gasparotto, Battaglin and Felline are all considered contenders.
The final ramp is about 5kms long in total, starting at a gradual average of 2.6% gradient and increasing to 6.2% for the final 1.75kms, before maxing out at 8% in two plqaces within the final few hundred metres. Patience is going to be key here I think, since if a rider were to go early than it is likely he'll be caught again.
CAN have been riding very positively during the race so far, sometimes I've reminded myself that they don't have Sagan in the race. They do have two likely candidates for this stage, at least on paper. Oscar Gatto (40/1 bv) won stage 7 of the 2011 Giro from Bertie, after which he was leading the race on GC, however he hasn't even been mentioned for a stage in this race for the past two years since. Moreno Moser (80/1 b365) has the ability and skill to win a stage such as this, but he hasn't really done anything of note so far this season. Both are take on trust propositions.
Simon Geschke (50/1 various) is riding his fifth GT, but is on debut in the Giro. He has some good results in GT stages, albeit few and far between, nevertheless a 6th in stage 15 of 2012 Vuelta on a tough mountaintop-finish, and an equally impressive 8th, later in the similar stage 20. In last year's Tour he finished with the breakaway in that lovely and thoroughly enjoyable classics-style stage 14 finish into Lyon, when Matteo Trentin won. Whilst that might be a good guide to this stage, I am looking to his Ardennes classics campaign and particularly to his excellent finish behind Bertie in stage 5 of this year's Tirreno-Adriatico, which is this stage finale multiplied by three or four factors of difficulty. Geschke was getting tired by LBL, but his consistent displays in the Brabant Arrow followed by AGR, in finishing 4th and 6th respectively, confirmed that this stage profile, particularly the finale is ideal for his characteristics. It wouldn't be right to overlook his two top-10 finishes in Italy, in Strade Bianche and Roma Maxima. If he has good legs and plays it patiently, I firmly believe he can blitz the final ramp and win this stage, picking up from where Kittel left off for GIA. I do acknowledge that it has been some time since he has won a race, but on an E/W basis he appeals as one of the main contenders.
Young Italian Enrico Battaglin has two previous starts in the Giro, his only GT rides, and in 2013 he showed his ability and skill by winning stage 4 and finishing 2nd in stage 7. At 20/1 (PP) he is very short and little in the way of value, but he may be one to keep in mind.
Enrico Gasparotto (15/1 b365) is another one which makes some appeal, but is far too short for my liking.
In conclusion; I can't oppose Ulissi, don't like EBH and Evans although the latter has some claims, and I think it's a little too hard for Matthews and Swift. Geschke ticks nearly all the boxes, including his price which has fair E/W value.
Good luck to all,
SP
CAN have been riding very positively during the race so far, sometimes I've reminded myself that they don't have Sagan in the race. They do have two likely candidates for this stage, at least on paper. Oscar Gatto (40/1 bv) won stage 7 of the 2011 Giro from Bertie, after which he was leading the race on GC, however he hasn't even been mentioned for a stage in this race for the past two years since. Moreno Moser (80/1 b365) has the ability and skill to win a stage such as this, but he hasn't really done anything of note so far this season. Both are take on trust propositions.
Simon Geschke (50/1 various) is riding his fifth GT, but is on debut in the Giro. He has some good results in GT stages, albeit few and far between, nevertheless a 6th in stage 15 of 2012 Vuelta on a tough mountaintop-finish, and an equally impressive 8th, later in the similar stage 20. In last year's Tour he finished with the breakaway in that lovely and thoroughly enjoyable classics-style stage 14 finish into Lyon, when Matteo Trentin won. Whilst that might be a good guide to this stage, I am looking to his Ardennes classics campaign and particularly to his excellent finish behind Bertie in stage 5 of this year's Tirreno-Adriatico, which is this stage finale multiplied by three or four factors of difficulty. Geschke was getting tired by LBL, but his consistent displays in the Brabant Arrow followed by AGR, in finishing 4th and 6th respectively, confirmed that this stage profile, particularly the finale is ideal for his characteristics. It wouldn't be right to overlook his two top-10 finishes in Italy, in Strade Bianche and Roma Maxima. If he has good legs and plays it patiently, I firmly believe he can blitz the final ramp and win this stage, picking up from where Kittel left off for GIA. I do acknowledge that it has been some time since he has won a race, but on an E/W basis he appeals as one of the main contenders.
Young Italian Enrico Battaglin has two previous starts in the Giro, his only GT rides, and in 2013 he showed his ability and skill by winning stage 4 and finishing 2nd in stage 7. At 20/1 (PP) he is very short and little in the way of value, but he may be one to keep in mind.
Enrico Gasparotto (15/1 b365) is another one which makes some appeal, but is far too short for my liking.
In conclusion; I can't oppose Ulissi, don't like EBH and Evans although the latter has some claims, and I think it's a little too hard for Matthews and Swift. Geschke ticks nearly all the boxes, including his price which has fair E/W value.
Good luck to all,
SP
Thing is with Geschke is that he never seems to actually win, despite threatening to frequently on this sort of terrain. I wonder whether we are going to see a winner from left-field. Wonder whether Alexandre Geniez could be lifted by the team performance yesterday to show the talent he clearly has? 250/1 in places.
Is there a chance a break could go all the way today? I would think OGE will have to do all the chasing, can't see them getting much help from anyone today, could be a long hard day for OGE.
It does look a very difficult stage to call, and one to enjoy more than bet on! For the sake of a bit of interest i'm going to have a small ew on Roche at 40/1, the last kilometre would seem to suit him, and already up on most of his gc rivals,he might try to steal a few more seconds here.
Also small on Moreno at 16/1, could be an ideal finale for one of the katusha riders to launch an attack, and Moreno looks the likelier today as Purito will probably be looking more at tomorrow, though being so far behind he may want to gain seconds wherever he can this week.
Good luck all.
It does look a very difficult stage to call, and one to enjoy more than bet on! For the sake of a bit of interest i'm going to have a small ew on Roche at 40/1, the last kilometre would seem to suit him, and already up on most of his gc rivals,he might try to steal a few more seconds here.
Also small on Moreno at 16/1, could be an ideal finale for one of the katusha riders to launch an attack, and Moreno looks the likelier today as Purito will probably be looking more at tomorrow, though being so far behind he may want to gain seconds wherever he can this week.
Good luck all.
Have to say I like the look of Roche. He was actually the first person I thought of when I saw the profile of this stage, but I've managed to talk myself out of backing him for some reason.
Have to say I like the look of Roche. He was actually the first person I thought of when I saw the profile of this stage, but I've managed to talk myself out of backing him for some reason.
Geschke at 28 yo is in his prime and whilst he hasn't got much to show for his career so far, he has put the writing on the wall this season that a top result is on the cards. He has found a way to get into position in the races mentioned, showing a conviction that he can perform with the best riders, something which has been missing in the past. This is not a big bet (*) representing low level confidence, but the stage just looks ideal for a rider who is suggesting he can win a stage like this.
I think there is a high likelihood of a major selection either up Viggiano, or down its backside, and so a breakaway is more than likely. If there is an early break than those teams with a chance will obviously work to bring it back, including OGE, CAN, LAM and GIA. I've approached this stage as a one-day classic and I think when it's all said and done, we won't be that surprised with the winner and/or results. Roche is not for me.
I think there is a high likelihood of a major selection either up Viggiano, or down its backside, and so a breakaway is more than likely. If there is an early break than those teams with a chance will obviously work to bring it back, including OGE, CAN, LAM and GIA. I've approached this stage as a one-day classic and I think when it's all said and done, we won't be that surprised with the winner and/or results. Roche is not for me.
well...i slipped bouhanni in at 250...after reading pozzovivo's analysis of a 'home climb'...but naturally i have little expectation of him surviving the final ramp.
obviously expect it to be an "ardennes" type of winner with the profile /last km...and 250 reflects that.
But nacer can climb...and 250 just seemed a bit disrespectful.
obviously expect it to be an "ardennes" type of winner with the profile /last km...and 250 reflects that.
But nacer can climb...and 250 just seemed a bit disrespectful.
Great news Uran was 4th as well if there's any time gaps
Great news Uran was 4th as well if there's any time gaps
Well done again MC, think Katusha and Roche attacked way too soon, but like you said he would Ulissi got his tactics spot on.
Well done MC -- a short price is a good price when landed in such fine winning fashion. Geschke never in it. Didn't see that coming from EBH, nor strong forward showing by KAT, but no surprises really with the winner. Nice ride by Arredondo, might have won it with some more patience. SP
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