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Maglia Rosa Contenders
Nairo Quintana Movistar 10/11
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Movistar have made it clear that they expect their lack of Grand tour titles to end this year. To this end, they have sent the big guns to the Giro. Nairo Quintana is a massive favourite for this. He’s an explosive climber that in this field all but maybe Rodriguez will struggle to live with. He has a very strong team behind him and following his second in the Tour de France last year behind Froome in his second (!) Grand Tour, he can win his first of many here. He’s short at 10/11, who knows what the pressure of Grand Tour favouritism will do? Of course anything can happen in a three week stage race but Quintana should win barring accidents and illness and I expect him to.
Purito Rodriguez Katusha 3/1
Even at 35, Purito is surely the only man in the race that can live with the climbing of Quintana. Rodriguez was in 3rd in the 2013 Tour de France, only 40 seconds behind Quintana, and by the third week they were both climbing supremely well. Purito has been incredibly consistent in Grand Tours, with 8 top 4 finishes since the 2009 Vuelta. Desperately unlucky not to have already won a Grand Tour title, the Spanish nearly man was second to Hesjedal in 2012 and should probably have won the Vuelta the same year. He has his usual support team of Moreno, Paolini and Caruso with him. He has to prove he is over the Amstel Gold crash that caused him to have off days in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastonge-Liege but he will have plenty of time to ride himself into this race before the serious climbing starts in stages 8 and 9. I rate him the only serious danger to Quintana.
Cadel Evans BMC 12/1
The 2011 Tour de France winner is now 37 and he seemed to be on the downgrade when comfortably beaten by Wiggins and then Froome in the last two Tours but a podium in last year’s Giro shows there is life in the old dog yet, and this year he has looked strong Down Under and then when winning Trentino. The 2011 Tour de France champion has 5 Grand Tour podiums to his name in all, and although he might not be able to cope with the explosive climbing of Quintana, he’s probably the canniest of the main contenders and could well podium again.
Rigoberto Uran Uran Omega Pharma Quickstep 18/1
Uran was second last year for Sky after originally coming to support Wiggins and moved to Omega Pharma Quickstep to be a Grand tour team leader. I felt his form was somewhat underwhelming so far this year, but his time trial at Romandie was impressive, and shows the form he is in. He often seems to go under the radar and it would be no surprise to see him underestimated again. He has a strong looking team supporting him and I can see him being a podium contender at least, and he’s one of the ones that could feasibly win outright given a race going in his favour. I make him a small back at 18/1 and a bigger podium bet given a decent price.
Domenico Pozzovivo AG2R La Mondiale 28/1
Pozzovivo’s best Grand tour finish was 6th in La Vuelta last year, which included an incredible time trial, but he has 4 top 10s overall. His form has been solid this year, but his 5th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows what he is capable of when there’s a lot of climbing, and he and Moreno had the chasers worried for a long way in the final stages when they were off the front. I would be surprised to see him win here, or even podium but a top 6 finish is not unfeasible, despite the fact his team looks weaker than other contenders.
Michele Scarponi Astana 25/1
No. 1 as the GC man for Astana this year following Nibali’s win last year. Scarponi was given the 2011 Giro when Contador was banned for a positive clenbuterol test. Scarponi also has two Giro 4th placed finishes to his name. On all-known form he can’t beat the best climbers in this race, but a top 6 finish certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, and he has some strong climbers in support such as Aru and Landa.
Daniel Martin Garmin 33/1
Turning into a real leader for Garmin, and looked like he could repeat his 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege win when falling on the final corner after coming 2nd in Fleche-Wallone. Has won stages in Tour de France and La Vuelta but his 13th in the 2011 Vuelta remains his best Grand Tour finish so far. Whether he has the consistency to go through a 3-week Grand Tour remains to be seen but his recent forms looks as strong as anyone’s and the Giro has long been the target for this year.
Rafal Majka Tinkoff Saxo 50/1
A virtual unknown when he was announced as Saxo’s GC man for last year’s Giro, but the young Polish climber outperformed all expectations to finish 7th in only his 3rd Grand Tour. It’s unclear whether he or Roche are team leaders but he could go well again and it’s not hard to see him improving on last year, even if his form this season is unspectacular.
Przemyslaw Niemiec Lampre 50/1
Another of the surprise packages of 2013 back again to see whether he can make further progress, this young Polish climber could give another good account. He looked in good form in Trentino when he finished 3rd overall behind Evans and Pozzovivo, and finished 21st in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but was actually the first to attack from the front group on the final climb so must be in good shape. Niemiec has Ulissi and Cunego with him and so Lampre have options but Niemiec looks like he’s their best GC hope.
Ivan Basso Cannondale 50/1
Twice a winner in 2006 and 2010, it remains to be seen whether Basso can perform at anywhere near the level needed to threaten the best climbers in this race. Now 36 and he hasn’t shown anything this year that suggests he is capable of winning, personally I would find it a big shock if Basso podiumed, but he knows his way round a Grand tour having ridden in 17 and if Chris Horner can win a Vuelta then who knows? Should be a contender for a top 10.
Ryder Hesjedal Garmin 66/1
It isn't clear whether Hesjedal or Martin will be the team leader of Garmin, but Hesjedal is someone that knows what it takes to win this race, doing so in thrilling fashion two years ago. That win probably came as a bit of a surprise, but he did finish 6th in the 2010 Tour de France. Hesjedal has only really hinted at returning to the sort of form that could see him repeat that win, but he is one that would certainly be taken seriously by the main protagonists if he was near the top of the standings going into the third week.
Nicholas Roche Tinkoff 125/1
Roche might be going slightly under the radar here. Moved to Saxo last year, primarily as a super-domestique for Contador, and whilst he didn’t seem in great form in the Tour de France Roche proved he can compete with the mountain goats in the Vuelta. He won a stage, and only a bad day in shocking conditions stopped him being in contention for a podium. Only Horner, Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez finished ahead of him, so that form stacks up well. Like Martin, he should be boosted by competing in his “home” Grand Tour, and if he rather than Majka is team leader, and he’s in the same form he showed last autumn, he could get a top 10 finish or better.
Dario Cataldo Sky 125/1
Cataldo won a stage of the 2012 Vuelta, winning from a breakaway and beating Thomas de Gendt to the win. Was snapped up by Sky as a stage race domestique and potential future GC contender. His time has come sooner than the hierarchy at Sky may have expected, Porte’s illness and Henao’s biological passport irregularities have ruled them out of this race and as such Cataldo is their only viable option to compete for maglia rosa.
Pierre Rolland Europcar 150/1
Rolland came to prominence when he won on Alpe d’Huez in the 2011 Tour de France, and he won another mountain stage the following year. Finished 10th and 8th in those two editions but hasn’t developed into the sort of GC contender many thought he might do yet, seemingly lacking both 3-week consistency and time trialling skills. This edition of the Giro might suit his style though, he has plenty of miles in the legs this year. I thought he looked strong at Liege-Bastonge-Liege, but he eventually finished 24th. He could outride his massive price here as sole leader of a Europcar team desperate to accumulate victories and points.
Julian Arredondo 200/1 and Robert Kiserlovski 250/1 both Trek
Kiserlovski is an interesting outsider. He was absolutely superb riding for Chris Horner in the 2012 Vuelta, on each mountain stage he was the last domestique to leave the wheel of his leader. He comes to this year's Giro as nominated team leader for Trek, and if he climbs like that he could outride his price. He's had 4 top 20 finishes in Grand Tours, with his best finish 10th in the 2010 Giro. He's done the miles this year, with 6th in Tirrenico-Adriatico, 10th in Catalunya and 16th in Basque Country. He's an outsider I feel could go well, but if it doesn't happen Trek also have the Colombian climber Julian Arredondo who has looked in excellent form in the mountains. He won last year in Langkawi and was 2nd in the Tour of Japan whilst riding for the Japanese Team Nippo. This form secured a move to Trek, and the 25 year old has quickly found his feet with a 4th in San Luis, 5th in Tirrenico-Adriatico and also impressing in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. It's interesting that while they are similar prices for the outright, with Arredondo slightly shorter; Kiserlovski is only 5/4 for a top 10 finish and Arredondo is 7/1.
Summary
I’m convinced Quintana is head and shoulders above this field and was tempted to have an extremely large bet on him at just above evens on the Exchange. As it is I will probably back him to cover my other outright bets and no more. I think Roche and Kiserlovski could be the ‘surprise’ packages. The books have been very slow to price up anything other than the outright market, but this is what I’ve gone for. With regard to the sprinters’ jersey, I’m not sure the books have taken into account the changes in the points system this year, and Rodriguez and Quintana are only a bit bigger than Kittel and Bouhanni, despite 6 pan-flat stages in the first 13. Flat stages are worth 50 points to the winner, with mountain stages only worth 15 points to the first over the line. Intermediate sprint points are equally skewed to favour sprinters so in my eyes the climbers have no chance at unless they are also contesting bunch and immediate sprints, which the GC men will not be. Of course, Kittel and Bouhanni may decide to abandon before the serious climbing starts, or they may not make the cutoff on some stages, but I think the chance to win in Trieste wearing the points jersey may be too hard to resist.
My bets
Outright winner
2pts each way Rigoberto Uran 18/1
.25pts each way Przemyslaw Niemiec 50/1
.25pts each way Robert Kiserlovski 250/1
Top 10 finish
3pts Nicholas Roche 7/4
1pt Pierre Rolland 3/1
.5pts Alexander Geniez 8/1
.5pts Jose Herrara 50/1
Points Classification
.5pt Marcel Kittel 15/1
.5pt Nacer Bouhanni 15/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/winner
Maglia Rosa Contenders
Nairo Quintana Movistar 10/11
he Movistar have made it clear that they expect their lack of Grand tour titles to end this year. To this end, they have sent the big guns to the Giro. Nairo Quintana is a massive favourite for this. He’s an explosive climber that in this field all but maybe Rodriguez will struggle to live with. He has a very strong team behind him and following his second in the Tour de France last year behind Froome in his second (!) Grand Tour, he can win his first of many here. He’s short at 10/11, who knows what the pressure of Grand Tour favouritism will do? Of course anything can happen in a three week stage race but Quintana should win barring accidents and illness and I expect him to.
Purito Rodriguez Katusha 3/1
Even at 35, Purito is surely the only man in the race that can live with the climbing of Quintana. Rodriguez was in 3rd in the 2013 Tour de France, only 40 seconds behind Quintana, and by the third week they were both climbing supremely well. Purito has been incredibly consistent in Grand Tours, with 8 top 4 finishes since the 2009 Vuelta. Desperately unlucky not to have already won a Grand Tour title, the Spanish nearly man was second to Hesjedal in 2012 and should probably have won the Vuelta the same year. He has his usual support team of Moreno, Paolini and Caruso with him. He has to prove he is over the Amstel Gold crash that caused him to have off days in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastonge-Liege but he will have plenty of time to ride himself into this race before the serious climbing starts in stages 8 and 9. I rate him the only serious danger to Quintana.
Cadel Evans BMC 12/1
The 2011 Tour de France winner is now 37 and he seemed to be on the downgrade when comfortably beaten by Wiggins and then Froome in the last two Tours but a podium in last year’s Giro shows there is life in the old dog yet, and this year he has looked strong Down Under and then when winning Trentino. The 2011 Tour de France champion has 5 Grand Tour podiums to his name in all, and although he might not be able to cope with the explosive climbing of Quintana, he’s probably the canniest of the main contenders and could well podium again.
Rigoberto Uran Uran Omega Pharma Quickstep 18/1
Uran was second last year for Sky after originally coming to support Wiggins and moved to Omega Pharma Quickstep to be a Grand tour team leader. I felt his form was somewhat underwhelming so far this year, but his time trial at Romandie was impressive, and shows the form he is in. He often seems to go under the radar and it would be no surprise to see him underestimated again. He has a strong looking team supporting him and I can see him being a podium contender at least, and he’s one of the ones that could feasibly win outright given a race going in his favour. I make him a small back at 18/1 and a bigger podium bet given a decent price.
Domenico Pozzovivo AG2R La Mondiale 28/1
Pozzovivo’s best Grand tour finish was 6th in La Vuelta last year, which included an incredible time trial, but he has 4 top 10s overall. His form has been solid this year, but his 5th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows what he is capable of when there’s a lot of climbing, and he and Moreno had the chasers worried for a long way in the final stages when they were off the front. I would be surprised to see him win here, or even podium but a top 6 finish is not unfeasible, despite the fact his team looks weaker than other contenders.
Michele Scarponi Astana 25/1
No. 1 as the GC man for Astana this year following Nibali’s win last year. Scarponi was given the 2011 Giro when Contador was banned for a positive clenbuterol test. Scarponi also has two Giro 4th placed finishes to his name. On all-known form he can’t beat the best climbers in this race, but a top 6 finish certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, and he has some strong climbers in support such as Aru and Landa.
Daniel Martin Garmin 33/1
Turning into a real leader for Garmin, and looked like he could repeat his 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege win when falling on the final corner after coming 2nd in Fleche-Wallone. Has won stages in Tour de France and La Vuelta but his 13th in the 2011 Vuelta remains his best Grand Tour finish so far. Whether he has the consistency to go through a 3-week Grand Tour remains to be seen but his recent forms looks as strong as anyone’s and the Giro has long been the target for this year.
Rafal Majka Tinkoff Saxo 50/1
A virtual unknown when he was announced as Saxo’s GC man for last year’s Giro, but the young Polish climber outperformed all expectations to finish 7th in only his 3rd Grand Tour. It’s unclear whether he or Roche are team leaders but he could go well again and it’s not hard to see him improving on last year, even if his form this season is unspectacular.
Przemyslaw Niemiec Lampre 50/1
Another of the surprise packages of 2013 back again to see whether he can make further progress, this young Polish climber could give another good account. He looked in good form in Trentino when he finished 3rd overall behind Evans and Pozzovivo, and finished 21st in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but was actually the first to attack from the front group on the final climb so must be in good shape. Niemiec has Ulissi and Cunego with him and so Lampre have options but Niemiec looks like he’s their best GC hope.
Ivan Basso Cannondale 50/1
Twice a winner in 2006 and 2010, it remains to be seen whether Basso can perform at anywhere near the level needed to threaten the best climbers in this race. Now 36 and he hasn’t shown anything this year that suggests he is capable of winning, personally I would find it a big shock if Basso podiumed, but he knows his way round a Grand tour having ridden in 17 and if Chris Horner can win a Vuelta then who knows? Should be a contender for a top 10.
Ryder Hesjedal Garmin 66/1
It isn't clear whether Hesjedal or Martin will be the team leader of Garmin, but Hesjedal is someone that knows what it takes to win this race, doing so in thrilling fashion two years ago. That win probably came as a bit of a surprise, but he did finish 6th in the 2010 Tour de France. Hesjedal has only really hinted at returning to the sort of form that could see him repeat that win, but he is one that would certainly be taken seriously by the main protagonists if he was near the top of the standings going into the third week.
Nicholas Roche Tinkoff 125/1
Roche might be going slightly under the radar here. Moved to Saxo last year, primarily as a super-domestique for Contador, and whilst he didn’t seem in great form in the Tour de France Roche proved he can compete with the mountain goats in the Vuelta. He won a stage, and only a bad day in shocking conditions stopped him being in contention for a podium. Only Horner, Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez finished ahead of him, so that form stacks up well. Like Martin, he should be boosted by competing in his “home” Grand Tour, and if he rather than Majka is team leader, and he’s in the same form he showed last autumn, he could get a top 10 finish or better.
Dario Cataldo Sky 125/1
Cataldo won a stage of the 2012 Vuelta, winning from a breakaway and beating Thomas de Gendt to the win. Was snapped up by Sky as a stage race domestique and potential future GC contender. His time has come sooner than the hierarchy at Sky may have expected, Porte’s illness and Henao’s biological passport irregularities have ruled them out of this race and as such Cataldo is their only viable option to compete for maglia rosa.
Pierre Rolland Europcar 150/1
Rolland came to prominence when he won on Alpe d’Huez in the 2011 Tour de France, and he won another mountain stage the following year. Finished 10th and 8th in those two editions but hasn’t developed into the sort of GC contender many thought he might do yet, seemingly lacking both 3-week consistency and time trialling skills. This edition of the Giro might suit his style though, he has plenty of miles in the legs this year. I thought he looked strong at Liege-Bastonge-Liege, but he eventually finished 24th. He could outride his massive price here as sole leader of a Europcar team desperate to accumulate victories and points.
Julian Arredondo 200/1 and Robert Kiserlovski 250/1 both Trek
Kiserlovski is an interesting outsider. He was absolutely superb riding for Chris Horner in the 2012 Vuelta, on each mountain stage he was the last domestique to leave the wheel of his leader. He comes to this year's Giro as nominated team leader for Trek, and if he climbs like that he could outride his price. He's had 4 top 20 finishes in Grand Tours, with his best finish 10th in the 2010 Giro. He's done the miles this year, with 6th in Tirrenico-Adriatico, 10th in Catalunya and 16th in Basque Country. He's an outsider I feel could go well, but if it doesn't happen Trek also have the Colombian climber Julian Arredondo who has looked in excellent form in the mountains. He won last year in Langkawi and was 2nd in the Tour of Japan whilst riding for the Japanese Team Nippo. This form secured a move to Trek, and the 25 year old has quickly found his feet with a 4th in San Luis, 5th in Tirrenico-Adriatico and also impressing in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. It's interesting that while they are similar prices for the outright, with Arredondo slightly shorter; Kiserlovski is only 5/4 for a top 10 finish and Arredondo is 7/1.
Summary
I’m convinced Quintana is head and shoulders above this field and was tempted to have an extremely large bet on him at just above evens on the Exchange. As it is I will probably back him to cover my other outright bets and no more. I think Roche and Kiserlovski could be the ‘surprise’ packages. The books have been very slow to price up anything other than the outright market, but this is what I’ve gone for. With regard to the sprinters’ jersey, I’m not sure the books have taken into account the changes in the points system this year, and Rodriguez and Quintana are only a bit bigger than Kittel and Bouhanni, despite 6 pan-flat stages in the first 13. Flat stages are worth 50 points to the winner, with mountain stages only worth 15 points to the first over the line. Intermediate sprint points are equally skewed to favour sprinters so in my eyes the climbers have no chance at unless they are also contesting bunch and immediate sprints, which the GC men will not be. Of course, Kittel and Bouhanni may decide to abandon before the serious climbing starts, or they may not make the cutoff on some stages, but I think the chance to win in Trieste wearing the points jersey may be too hard to resist.
My bets
Outright winner
2pts each way Rigoberto Uran 18/1
.25pts each way Przemyslaw Niemiec 50/1
.25pts each way Robert Kiserlovski 250/1
Top 10 finish
3pts Nicholas Roche 7/4
1pt Pierre Rolland 3/1
.5pts Alexander Geniez 8/1
.5pts Jose Herrara 50/1
Points Classification
.5pt Marcel Kittel 15/1
.5pt Nacer Bouhanni 15/1
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Replies: 40
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Two days to go until The Fight for Pink
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Bet £3.65 offering evens about a Nace Bouhanni stage win. Might not be able to beat Marcel Kittel at his best, but plenty of oportunities for a stage win here, and I think he's the second best sprinter here so would expect him to get his nose in front at least once.
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Nice write-up MC.
 I've been a bit busy so haven't had much time to do my own, however there's not much more I could add to what you've furnished the forum. On BF, I'm going in with just the one bet on Quintana, think he'll trade much shorter within the first week, and I'll decide whether to carry the bet or lay off some. Interested to take a longer look at your Uran and Niemiec picks. SP. |
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Excellent write up MC, a great read.
As with everyone else, I can't really see anything but a battle between Quintana and Rodriguez. Barring accidents they will surely finish first and second. I can see why the bookmakers make Quintana the favourite, but to me there is very little between the two. They both finished the TDF very strong last year, where there was only seconds between them. They both warmed up for this at Catalunya, where Purito finished ahead of Quintana on both the big mountain stages, winning the GC in the process. Purito says he has been refreshed by the enforced rest he had after the Amstel fall, so should be coming here in top form. He has gone on record saying that he feels this years route is more suited to him than when he went very close in 2012, and it's his best chance of finally winning a grand tour. There are 9 mountain top finishes, including the Zoncolan that he sees as likely to be the most decisive climb, and one that suits him really well. The 2 ITT's are both tough one's and will suit the climbers, most will feel this is where Quintana will put a lot of time in to Purito, but remember that in the final TT at last years TDF, it was Purito who put a minute in to Quintana! I really think it will be very very close, and could go either way, so at the prices the bet has to be PURITO at 3/1. Outside of that i've been struggling to come up with any strong angles to have a bet. The points jersey should go to a sprinter, and on current form Viviani would look like the man but again the bookies are taking no chances and the price 13/8 is too short for me. I've been trying to look for a value bet for a podium/ top ten outside of the big 2. The riders that interested me most were Martin, Roche, Evans, Niemiec, and Majka, but for reasons of value or form, etc none of them really appealed as a bet. It looks so open outside of the top 2, and I think we could see some real surprise names competing for the final podium step. So ive tried to look a bit more out in to left field, and the rider i have come up with is MIKEL LANDA! First came to notice as a 21 year old winning a big mountain stage at Burgos in 2011, riding away from Purito, Cobo, Moreno, Sanchez, etc. He hadn't done much in the couple of years since, but after joining Astana this season he seems to have really found his form. To my eyes was climbing better than anyone at Trentino last month, finishing 3rd on stage 2 and winning on stage 3. He comes here mainly in support of Scarponi, but to me he looks the man in form from Astana, and it would be no surprise to see him being the team leader by the 3rd week. Any GC aspirations here would seem to be let down by his distinct lack of TT ability, but as Purito has said both TT's here will really suit the top climbers, and Landa is certainly that. So just for a little interest have done a small ew in the without Quintana/Rodriguez market at 40/1, and very small ew at 200/1 in the normal outright, and also small ew at 80/1 for King of the mountain. Good luck all. |
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Stage 1 - Team TT
Orica GE are very short priced favourites for this, and they obviously have a strong team. But i'm going to take them on here with MOVISTAR at 9/1. They have performed very well in team TT's over the last couple of years, and this course should suit them. They will be pulled along by 2 very strong men in Castroviejo, and Adriano Malori who is in excellent shape as he showed when beating Cancellara, Wiggins, and Martin in the Tirreno-Adriatico TT in march. Movistar look sure to be right in the mix here and the 9/1 looks big. |
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Highly incisive post, HB. It's nice to sit back and enjoy reading good quality views. Interesting view on Landa. I remember seeing him in the 2012 Vuelta. Think he might be 2-4 years away from getting some good results since there's no doubt about his talent and potential.
Agree on Movistar -- have had a decent bet for them to go Top-3, and to a smaller extent the win. Quintana might very-well be leading this race by the end of today, and I think that's why he is shorter and deserving of favouritism ahead of Purito. Good luck to all, SP |
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I expect Orica to win easy, and get Svien Tuft over the line in first place. They will then try to pick up bonus seconds tomorrow and get Bling Matthews in pink. Not much of a price though, so I'm taking OPQS and Giant to podium at 5.5 and 13.5 respectively.    |
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Svein Tuft crosses the line first
 let's see whether they end up with the best time |
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I don't follow cycling but the race goes right up my road. I watched team Columbia pass the start line on Eurosport so I walked 2 minutes to watch them live and almost missed them.
I watched 2 teams go by and seen another team coming from the other direction, only now I realised it was team Columbia coming back. I couldn't believe the speed they were going and that is some journey they've covered. There's a fixed speed camera further on up the road, I think a few of these cyclists will expect a fine in a few days  The journey to Stormont would take me a good 15 minutes drive in light traffic even with all green traffic lights. |
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Average speed around 50-55kmph
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Dan Martin down.
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That has screwed Garmin, and ended both Martin and Hesjedal's GC hopes.
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Not bad, picked the winners, a podium at 5.5 and even got the pink jersey right
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Well done, great call MC.
The weather made it a very tough TT, and clearly had an effect on some of the teams. It appeared OGE may have had an advantage going first, though they probably had the strongest team anyway. |
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Movistar were a disgrace.
 Not the way to start a three week epic -- will be digging myself out of this mess for the first week, now.  Good work MC -- excellent start mate -- congrats. SP |
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Think Movistar were a little unlucky. From the look of it they had the worst of the conditions, was pouring with rain as they went up the treacherous section approaching Stormont. Think they did a really good TTT considering.
Did you back Quintana as a trade? He hasn't got any bigger. In fact if anything his market position has strengthened due to Katusha losing time. It's only the early skirmishes anyway. Now a week for all of us of praying your man isn't involved in the inevitable crashes in the peloton until the real stuff starts. |
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Perhaps I'm being a little unfair on account of taking a loss, but losing Castroviego and Anton and then Ventoso, was disappointing for Movistar, and suggested that should they have had experienced more even conditions on the road, the attempt at the win would have failed, regardless.
Only one bet on here so far, and Quintana was always going to be a trade, but in terms of staggered lays of slowly peeling back risk of investment as his price shortens. Now I have to leave him in longer before making the first lay trade, and yes, the longer I'm exposed the longer he remains out on the road avoiding a crash. Think I'll be reaching for the Rosary-chain on Sunday at mass, and prayers devoted to Madonna del Ghisallo, the patroness of cyclists. Hoping he remains safe in the peloton before the action begins on the climbs, firstly on the punchy-looking ramps to the finish on stages 5 and 6, and then stage 8 proper. I agree with your understanding of his price, and he has in fact firmed a little on account of Purito's failure, but would have shortened more if not for Evans backers taking some of the small liquid value available. I'm fine with the outright market bank, no panic there on account of the early skirmishes as you say, but the stage bank has taken a significant hit, and it detracts from my overall bank position, which is just frustrating so early in the race. Just haven't been as connected as I'd like, from being stretched with other things, but just have to start to put the work back in and work my way out, slowly. Or perhaps I should just follow you into the coming bets unquestionably, MC? SP |
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Now that's certainly not a good idea!
  Kittel should be an easy winner tomorrow but I wonder if OPQS will try the old Valverde echelons trick tomorrow if the conditions are suitable, and if so, who they manage to catch out? The expected wet conditions on the run-in, with the typical first-sprint-of-a-Grand-Tour nerves, as well as a sharp corner everyone wants to be first to just 300m from the line mean that tomorrow is both must-see fare and one to swerve from a big betting point of view. I can see why people are keen to lay Kittel at evens or better but who beats him? The only one I'm interested in is Nacer Bouhanni and he's my each way play tomorrow. Fingers crossed that all our bets stay out of trouble and no-one else joins Dan Martin in Belfast A&E. |
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I don't know, you seem to be pretty-well connected, and have contributed a lot of work for the forum.
 With weather and tricky conditions all contributing factors toward a wild finish for the riders, I think it is prudential to look for value over -- as yet -- unproven short-priced favouritism in Kittel. Now time to get to work... |
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Nacer Bouhani abandoned Paris-Nice with a mild knee injury, which he suffered when hitting the ground on the opening stage, before going on to win that same stage. Less than a week later he finished 3rd in a Belgian one day classic, proving that he didn't suffer from any ill-effects. The young Frenchman Viviani beat him into 2nd at last year's Giro opener, allowed Goss to get in front of him in stage 6 for 3rd, and had no answer for the Manx's power in stage 12, when he finished 2nd. Bouhani has never won a stage in a GT, and whilst he has won a French one day classic at 197kms ahead of this race, I'm not convinced he is in such sparkling form that a win is all but assured.
Similarly aged, Michael Matthews has two GT wins on debut in the Vuelta last year. He has won twice this year, albeit not against the quality he'll be facing here -- a Spanish one-day classic over 165kms, and the 195km stage 3 in the Basque Country. I would have better confidence in his chances with a slight incline in the final few kms as he has proven this year that he can do toughness, however this finale is flat and might suit the bigger men more than him. Nevertheless, team comraderie is a big thing in this Australian team, the mateship feeling will be strong after their TTT win in setting-up Tuft with a welcome birthday present. Marcel Kittel as a four-time stage winner in last year's Tour, and having owned the Dubai Tour with several wins at the start of the season, along with his win in the one-day classic Scheldeprijs over 201kms, makes him acceptable as favourite but perhaps not as short as he is being quoted. Likewise I can see the appeal of a lay bet against him, and will be paying for Matthews with an equal spend. Bouhani, Matthews, and even Viviani who is still looking for his first GT stage win -- are all riders who can figure in the finish for the win. Moreover, the way the weather looks to play out, I'm not convinced we will even see a bunch sprint for first place as a breakaway might get this on a day where the peloton may look for an early rest in the saddle. At 16/1 Matthews (*) on an E/W basis is good value for a rider in a buoyant team who have good organisational skills and a team-minded philosophy. I'm willing to lay Kittel at anything below evens on account of his as yet unproven form here in what might be tricky conditions. Good luck to all, SP |
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MC I know you fancy Kittel for the points jersey, what is your opinion on why he is odds on fav for stage 2 today, but is still available at 10/1+ for the points jersey? Yet Viviani is 6/4 for the points and yet available at 6/1 today??? Is it that Kittel is not expected to last the whole 3 weeks and will be likely to retire before the end,, and that with Viviani being at home people feel he is certain to stay for the duration?? Just seems a strange difference in the prices.
Personally I don't think there will be much between them but I'd just go with Viviani who may have a form edge at this stage, as he looked in fine form in Turkey last week. So i'll have a little bit of the 6/1 today. |
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re Kittel it's my understanding that he is expected to just hang around for the first two weeks, abandon before the horrible stuff in the third week and then start his tour training routine and recon. That being said, the way the points system has been altered this year is just so muh in the advantage of the sprinters (50 for a flat stage win, only 15 for a high mountain stage win) that you are almost definitely going to have to be featuring in the flat stage bunch sprints and possibly also the intermediate stage sprints to win it. Kittel is the best sprinter by far, he has the best train and with so many flat stages he *should* be well in front by the time we go into the high mountains. Then I think he might be tempted to hang around to win the jersey. However, he really is a terrible climber even compared to most sprinters, and there must be a chance of him missing the cutoff on some of these stages.
I've backed him at 15/1 but I've actually got more on Bouhanni and 15/1 and 12/1. He's the second best sprinter here (I think), he's a better climber and he might be determined to complete a grand tour as he's had so much bad luck in previous attempts. He's certainly less likely to miss a cutoff than Kittel. |
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re Bling Matthews, I don't think he can beat some of the real fast men in a true bunch sprint (Viviani, Bouhanni and Kittel to name 3) and you're right to say he'd prefer a bit of a rise at the end. But in his favour his team are superb, he's likely to get delivered to the right place and with the late corner it's feasible he gets a place today.
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re Quintana I'd be tempted to sit tight if I was you SP. OK, he lost time on Evans and Uran and there's a possibility of a crash over the next week or so, but this parcours suits him so well and the only real competitor, Rodriguez is always looking for ways not to win Grand Tours and has now already lost the best part of 2 minutes himself.
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Stage 2 turned in-play on the exchange an hour early
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Kittel wins, Bouhanni second. We might see that a few times in the first two weeks. Orica were certainly well positioned approching that last corner. It will be interesting to have another look at what happened as they turned out of the last corner because it looks like Matthews only got 8th.
Still, I'm sure he'll be happy enough with pink tomorrow. |
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marychain1 09 May 14 16:08 Joined: 05 Apr 05
I expect Orica to win easy, and get Svien Tuft over the line in first place. They will then try to pick up bonus seconds tomorrow and get Bling Matthews in pink. Not much of a price though, so I'm taking OPQS and Giant to podium at 5.5 and 13.5 respectively. What about that for a shout? |
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You're totally connected MC -- highly impressive analysing skills for the start of this by asking and drawing out further questions -- keep it going mate.
SP |
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Kittel carved-out a lot of room for himself out wide in the finale, and in that type of scenario his class prevails. It was a disorganized run-in to the final left-hander on account of the road furniture, however GIA were at the front for some time, allowing Kittel to keep a good forward position, and his experience came to the forefront when he worked hard to keep that position once left alone. He looks totally unbeatable now, and I think that whilst we will see other sprinters' teams contributing to bring back the inevitable breakaway during stage 3, I'm not sure it makes much sense, this early. Moreover, his price is insanely short, and I really have no option but to lay him again to make a small dent on my poor stage betting bank, and indeed have done so. He'll likely win given a similar situation again, but my hands are tied and the lay appears a fair option given the likelihood of a bigger break forming and going to the line ahead of the peloton. SP
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I think the most interesting aspect of yesterdays stage was how Bouhanni and FDJ destroyed Kittel's train. Ultimately to no avail as while not in the best position it was still decent enough to win easily, but I haven't seen that done so well in a long time.
If they can keep that up on tighter finishes we should get a bit of variation in bunch sprints. |
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I've laid Kittel today as well. He's the most likely winner but as you say, insanely short.
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Holding my breath with each one of these crashes that my GC men aren't involved. Niemiec on the ground there.
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Kittel just too good, won that from miles back with hardly any leadout. No harm done to any of the GC guys today from the look of it, presuming Roche got back on at end. Rest day tomorrow then a short 112km flate stage along the coast again, but the Adriatic this time.
Stage 04 GIOVINAZZO - BARI 13th May 2014 112 KM - Flat |
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POSN. NAME CTRY TEAM POINTS
1 KITTEL Marcel GER GIA 100 2 SWIFT Ben GBR SKY 69 3 VIVIANI Elia ITA CAN 68 4 BOUHANNI Nacer FRA FDJ 65 5 FERRARI Roberto ITA LAM 56 6 NIZZOLO Giacomo ITA TFR 50 7 APPOLLONIO Davide ITA ALM 44 8 TJALLINGII Maarten NED BEL 32 9 BELLETTI Manuel ITA AND 32 10 FARRAR Tyler USA GRS 28 |
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Great day watching the Womens Tour Of Britain yesterday, just an honour to see the legend that is Marianne Vos racing on these shores. Hope the race becomes a permanent fixture and she returns year on year.
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This is going to be the last season For Tyler isn't it? He's just lost it.
Was impressed by Ben Swift today, I didn't think he really had it as a mainstream sprinter but he's up there with the second tier. |
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Yeah think Farrar has gone.
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Didn't realise at the time but there was a split in the peloton yesterday. Majka, Scarponi and Kiserlovski look like the only potential contenders that made the split and gained 11 seconds on Quintana, Uran, Basso, Evans, Niemiec, Rolland etc
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