2014 Tour de Romandie

The Tour de Romandie can be seen as an ultra-mini GT held in Switzerland. Covering some 746 kms it has a 5.6 km prologue to start and an 18.5 km ITT to conclude six days of racing. The last three years, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Tour.

With Froome being the short-priced, albeit drifting favourite for the Tour, it is no surprise to witness that the defending champion here is also the favourite. Froome has only ridden two races this season, both stage races, and whilst he looked to me to be the clinical Froome of the previous season, on the Green Mountain stage 5 of the Tour of Oman which he won and with it sewed-up the GC, he looked quite poor and disappointed many in the Tour of Catalunya. Realizing that he needed a hard hit-out, management made a late decision to enter him for LBL, and on the morning of the start he pulled out with a chest infection. I believe his price is a default setting according to his status of being the reigning Tour winner. There is some rain and low temperatures are forecast for this part of the world, and whilst the weather in the mountains changes wildly, it is a concern for a rider with a build-up of mucus in his chest. No surprise for him to return to winning ways, but it appears to me that he may struggle. Take on trust.

Young American Tejay van Garderen, is again being mooted as a future Tour contender coming into this race, with management expecting a big showing from him with a fully-committed, if weak -- on paper -- team. His podium finish in Catalunya is his best result this season, and he also won the 166km stage 4 on a mountaintop finish in impressive fashion there. He came off the boil to finish 6th in the Basque Country, which was a surprise since the inclusion of an ITT should have improved his chances. At his only start in this race, in 2012, he had a DNF after riding the first three stages, where he appeared on target for a competitive result. Worthy of some consideration.

Simon Spilak from Slovenia is not a big name in pro-cycling, but he did finish second here last year and is having an improving season, with his last start 4th place finish in the Basque Country coming on the back of two top-10s, first in the Algarve and then Paris-Nice. Not to be discounted lightly.

Jean-Christophe Peraud is not getting any younger at 36, however after a slow start to the season in Argentina, his results have been magnificent, and he has kept his condition very well for a good period. There is no reason why he shouldn’t improve on his 6th place finish here last year if he can have a solid ITT. Some prospects. Keep in calculations.

Michal Kwiatkowski has raised his level of riding to an impressive level this season, with only his 18th place finish in Tirreno-Adriatico looking out of place, and he clearly deserves the attention he is getting. However, whilst management will want a podium result from him here, they have included Uran in the team as a measure to keep the pressure down on the Polish champion. He has done a lot of riding so far this season, and with the three Ardennes classics coming in rapid-fire, and him not having a long rest prior to the start of this, I will conclude that his legs are not up for it. Talented rider with claims, but not at this stage of proceedings. Take on trust.

Rui Costa has luckily suffered no injury with his crash in LBL. I do think that the Curse of the Rainbow Jersey is more prevalent in classics, and after all, his performance in Paris-Nice for 2nd place is worthy of being praised. Also has a 3rd in Algarve prior to that, and a disappointing 51st place finish in the Basque Country for his last start in a stage race. What impresses here however, is his 3rd place finishes in the last two years. He’ll need to find form and this may be a race where he can do it. One of the main contenders.

Andrew Talansky came close to his breakthrough win last year, when he finished 2nd in Paris-Nice, although some might argue that his top-10 finish in the Tour in the same year was equally good if not better. He will be fresh for this race with his last start coming in Catalunya, and a podium here is an objective on account of his 2nd place finish in 2012. Not to be discounted lightly.

Tony Martin didn’t ride this race in 2012, however he finished 11th last year and 2nd in 2011. In the Tour of the Basque Country, he got his first win of the season when soloing to victory from a break on a hilly course which included two cat 2 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 1, not to mention the rolling hills covering the final 40 kms. Whilst he got some assistance from team-mate Bakelants to attack Gorka Izagirre and get away on his own, what was a telling factor of his strength on undulating terrain was that he increased his lead in the last 10 kms. If he can keep in-touch in the queen stage 3, he can win this in the ITT. Treat warily.

*** Rui Costa 33/1 E/W (paddypower) 25/1 okay
**  Tony Martin 33/1 E/W (skybet) Should be 50/1
**  Tejay van Garderen 10/1 WIN ONLY (skybet)
*   Jean-Christophe Peraud 25/1 E/W (various places) Should be 66/1

Good luck to all,
SP