Other Sports
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
24 Apr 14
20:47
Joined:
Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
The third and last of the Ardennes classics is also the penultimate monument for the season, and is regarded as the toughest of the three. At 263kms long it is a true classic, and featuring ten climbs, with nearly all of them coming in the second-half of the race, and it will likely be won by a tough-as-nails type of rider who can do it all, and has the legs on the day.
Team Sky are feeling the pressure after a poor start to the season, and they will look to ramp-up their efforts in the coming races to find form, team harmony, and team combinations ahead of the Tour. It is therefore no surprise to see Porte and Froome appear together for this race, now that the Australian bar-room brawler won’t be riding the Giro. I believe this is essentially going to be a hard training ride for the team, and if that proves to be the case than I would expect a proper Sky train doing the lion-share of the work on the front of the peloton. Which means two things: 1.) Principals with strong teams may do less work, and 2.) Principals with weak teams won’t have to do as much work. I therefore believe that what we are most likely to see, closer to the finish than to the beginning, is some attempts at destructive long-range attacks going off the front, including the lieutenants’ of Principals who chase down attacks but get stuck in the leading group, and more likely, late attacks between the Principals ending in a proper selection. Unlike the previous two Ardennes races, breakaways winning here is not that uncommon.
Valverde won last start in LFW with an experienced showing, and I clearly made a mistake in overlooking him. His ride in AGR for 4th wasn’t a bad ride, it just wasn’t as brilliant as his season prior to it, and I was perhaps too judgemental in wrongly identifying that a 4th place result prior was him finally losing condition. He now has four wins this season, along with a podium and a top-5 in the one day classics, plus a stage race in Andalucia where he won two stages and the prologue. The Roma Maxima win is worth noting as a good ride along a tough, if short, parcours. He is rightfully favourite here on the back of his win on Wednesday, and furthermore his short price is of no surprise when taking into account that he was 3rd last year, not to mention that he has won this race twice previous, in 2006 for the first time, and then in 2008. Very strong prospects.
Philippe Gilbert was unlucky in LFW, we know it happens in cycling, however I see no reason why his suitability and chances here are any less likely for that last start failure. He wrongly hoped that by the approach to the Wall the final time, there would only be twenty riders remaining to tackle it, a manageable group for a pirate such as him to best; but it is also worth observing that he passed some six riders in riding into a top-10 place. The likelihood of there being a more manageable dynamic (as I have suggested above) is much more likely in a race with a proven history of long-range attacking success and that suits the tactics of a pirate who grew-up in the area, knows the parcours, enjoys the race, and has won it before, of course in 2011. Warrants respect.
Dan Martin is coming into this as the defending champion, and after his strong ride for 2nd on Wednesday when looking like he might possibly win, he is deserving of being on the third line of betting. He hasn’t really done much else this season, but present good form is all that matters and he should be amongst the main contenders. Having said that, he looked light to me, and for a course which demands a hard brand of toughness to win, especially to win back-to-back, he presents as a little suspect. Not to be discounted lightly. Place claims best.
Purito had this race as his number one goal for the season, perhaps because of finishing 2nd last year to winner Dan Martin, but with his crash in AGR and another one in LFW within the last 3 kms, it is warranted to begin to doubt his chances here. Nevertheless, Purito has brushed-away any physical concerns after the conclusion of LFW, indeed inferring that he is better for it, so it becomes a tough call to get right and perhaps his price is the best arbitrator of his chances. The ability of turning over a big gear on some of these false flats and long climbs, means he has some advantage and which makes him difficult to discount. Take on trust.
Michal Kwiatkowski finally got the podium he was promising in the Ardennes with his grinding effort for 3rd last start in LFW, however he was never in the picture for the win. Then combine this with his performance in AGR where he showed very little, in the failed sprint to the line against Gerrans and Valverde to finish 5th, and apart from putting Sagan to the sword in Italy, it seems to me like someone always seems to have the better answer to his quite difficult questions. Nevertheless, he is having the best season of his young career and is riding with good confidence, which is a dangerous recipe. He has two one day classic wins, that 3rd place last start, a top-5, a top-10, and he also won the Algarve stage race with two stage wins. Having said all that, he may be a little over-rated for a tough parcours. Take on trust.
Vincenzo Nibali – waiting on confirmation that he will start. 23rd last year. 2nd in 2012. Suited best by the parcours of all three Ardennes races, and there is evidence of a building of condition. Tough nut to crack so far this season, though. Wait to see.
Jelle Vanendert – waiting on confirmation that he will start. Shrugged off injury cloud with a strong performance in LFW, last start. Wait to see.
Simon Gerrans, may might find that extra bit of freshness he requires to perform well here after having had a break from riding LFW. He was 10th last year, after also missing the midweek LFW. I don’t know what sort of team he had last year, but certainly this year he has a very strong one, indeed. Particularly, Impey, Albasini, Weening and Clarke, should all be at his side for a very long way and that is a big advantage given my view of Sky’s involvement. He is in good form with that 3rd place in AGR, will give an honest account of himself, and has the ability to win his second monument. One of the main contenders.
Rui Costa may be suffering the curse of the Rainbow Jersey with no wins so far this season, but there is evidence he is building form and is much better suited by the parcours here. His team looks strong, and it is worth noting that the team has been working on team harmony and trying to build a winning culture around the likeable World Champion. Worthy of close consideration.
Bauke Mollema is coming into this at the right time. No wins this season, but his best result here is a 6th place finish in 2012 in a similar-looking Ardennes campaign, although he looks sharper than that this time in, and a podium result is a real possibility. Poor value. Keep safe.
Alex Kolobnev caught the eye with a performance which looked indefatigable and almost indestructible in AGR. If Purito is not up for it here, he may look to become the team’s joker card. Moreover, he may just find himself in a break in protecting Purito by closing an attack which pushes the pace and combines in a gap-winning break. Take on trust.
**** Philippe Gilbert WIN ONLY 9/2
*** Simon Gerrans E/W 24/1
** Alex Kolobnev E/W 150/1 Should be 300/1
* Bauke Mollema E/W 27/1 Should be 66/1
Good luck to all,
SP
Team Sky are feeling the pressure after a poor start to the season, and they will look to ramp-up their efforts in the coming races to find form, team harmony, and team combinations ahead of the Tour. It is therefore no surprise to see Porte and Froome appear together for this race, now that the Australian bar-room brawler won’t be riding the Giro. I believe this is essentially going to be a hard training ride for the team, and if that proves to be the case than I would expect a proper Sky train doing the lion-share of the work on the front of the peloton. Which means two things: 1.) Principals with strong teams may do less work, and 2.) Principals with weak teams won’t have to do as much work. I therefore believe that what we are most likely to see, closer to the finish than to the beginning, is some attempts at destructive long-range attacks going off the front, including the lieutenants’ of Principals who chase down attacks but get stuck in the leading group, and more likely, late attacks between the Principals ending in a proper selection. Unlike the previous two Ardennes races, breakaways winning here is not that uncommon.
Valverde won last start in LFW with an experienced showing, and I clearly made a mistake in overlooking him. His ride in AGR for 4th wasn’t a bad ride, it just wasn’t as brilliant as his season prior to it, and I was perhaps too judgemental in wrongly identifying that a 4th place result prior was him finally losing condition. He now has four wins this season, along with a podium and a top-5 in the one day classics, plus a stage race in Andalucia where he won two stages and the prologue. The Roma Maxima win is worth noting as a good ride along a tough, if short, parcours. He is rightfully favourite here on the back of his win on Wednesday, and furthermore his short price is of no surprise when taking into account that he was 3rd last year, not to mention that he has won this race twice previous, in 2006 for the first time, and then in 2008. Very strong prospects.
Philippe Gilbert was unlucky in LFW, we know it happens in cycling, however I see no reason why his suitability and chances here are any less likely for that last start failure. He wrongly hoped that by the approach to the Wall the final time, there would only be twenty riders remaining to tackle it, a manageable group for a pirate such as him to best; but it is also worth observing that he passed some six riders in riding into a top-10 place. The likelihood of there being a more manageable dynamic (as I have suggested above) is much more likely in a race with a proven history of long-range attacking success and that suits the tactics of a pirate who grew-up in the area, knows the parcours, enjoys the race, and has won it before, of course in 2011. Warrants respect.
Dan Martin is coming into this as the defending champion, and after his strong ride for 2nd on Wednesday when looking like he might possibly win, he is deserving of being on the third line of betting. He hasn’t really done much else this season, but present good form is all that matters and he should be amongst the main contenders. Having said that, he looked light to me, and for a course which demands a hard brand of toughness to win, especially to win back-to-back, he presents as a little suspect. Not to be discounted lightly. Place claims best.
Purito had this race as his number one goal for the season, perhaps because of finishing 2nd last year to winner Dan Martin, but with his crash in AGR and another one in LFW within the last 3 kms, it is warranted to begin to doubt his chances here. Nevertheless, Purito has brushed-away any physical concerns after the conclusion of LFW, indeed inferring that he is better for it, so it becomes a tough call to get right and perhaps his price is the best arbitrator of his chances. The ability of turning over a big gear on some of these false flats and long climbs, means he has some advantage and which makes him difficult to discount. Take on trust.
Michal Kwiatkowski finally got the podium he was promising in the Ardennes with his grinding effort for 3rd last start in LFW, however he was never in the picture for the win. Then combine this with his performance in AGR where he showed very little, in the failed sprint to the line against Gerrans and Valverde to finish 5th, and apart from putting Sagan to the sword in Italy, it seems to me like someone always seems to have the better answer to his quite difficult questions. Nevertheless, he is having the best season of his young career and is riding with good confidence, which is a dangerous recipe. He has two one day classic wins, that 3rd place last start, a top-5, a top-10, and he also won the Algarve stage race with two stage wins. Having said all that, he may be a little over-rated for a tough parcours. Take on trust.
Vincenzo Nibali – waiting on confirmation that he will start. 23rd last year. 2nd in 2012. Suited best by the parcours of all three Ardennes races, and there is evidence of a building of condition. Tough nut to crack so far this season, though. Wait to see.
Jelle Vanendert – waiting on confirmation that he will start. Shrugged off injury cloud with a strong performance in LFW, last start. Wait to see.
Simon Gerrans, may might find that extra bit of freshness he requires to perform well here after having had a break from riding LFW. He was 10th last year, after also missing the midweek LFW. I don’t know what sort of team he had last year, but certainly this year he has a very strong one, indeed. Particularly, Impey, Albasini, Weening and Clarke, should all be at his side for a very long way and that is a big advantage given my view of Sky’s involvement. He is in good form with that 3rd place in AGR, will give an honest account of himself, and has the ability to win his second monument. One of the main contenders.
Rui Costa may be suffering the curse of the Rainbow Jersey with no wins so far this season, but there is evidence he is building form and is much better suited by the parcours here. His team looks strong, and it is worth noting that the team has been working on team harmony and trying to build a winning culture around the likeable World Champion. Worthy of close consideration.
Bauke Mollema is coming into this at the right time. No wins this season, but his best result here is a 6th place finish in 2012 in a similar-looking Ardennes campaign, although he looks sharper than that this time in, and a podium result is a real possibility. Poor value. Keep safe.
Alex Kolobnev caught the eye with a performance which looked indefatigable and almost indestructible in AGR. If Purito is not up for it here, he may look to become the team’s joker card. Moreover, he may just find himself in a break in protecting Purito by closing an attack which pushes the pace and combines in a gap-winning break. Take on trust.
**** Philippe Gilbert WIN ONLY 9/2
*** Simon Gerrans E/W 24/1
** Alex Kolobnev E/W 150/1 Should be 300/1
* Bauke Mollema E/W 27/1 Should be 66/1
Good luck to all,
SP
Show More
Liege Bastogne Liege 2014 Preview
La Doyenne Des Classiques
Coming hot on the heels of last weekend’s Amstel Gold Race, and Wednesday’s Fleche Wallone, we have Liege-Bastongne-Liege this Sunday. Known as the “Old Lady of Classics” or “La Doyenne”, this year’s version is the 100th version of the race. King Philippe of Belgium (the actual King, not Gilbert) will see the riders off, and the route has been designed to take in some of the classic climbs of the race’s history.
These Ardennes Classics are where the punchers and climbers come to the fore, and several of these will look to join the list of famous names that have won the race, including Gilbert, Vinoukourov (twice), Valverde (twice) and Andy Schleck in recent years. The race has as much climbing as many Alpine Stages of the Tour de France, and with its daunting climbs and terrifying descents, Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a fearsome test.
Almost all the climbs vary in gradient from section to section, making a balance between power and stamina a must, and gear choice crucial. There are two climbs towards the closing kilometres. The penultimate climb is with about 5k to go is 1.2k at 8.6%. The finish at Ans is at the top of a climb, the last 1.5k averages 5.3% but in reality the last half kilometre are just false flat, and the section before that is steeper.
Martin wins LBL last year
Last year Dan Martin won, beating off Purito Rodriguez after following his attack then attacking past him once it flattened out towards the line. Watch the final few kilometres of Dan Martin's 2013 win here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4O5bb2XDdc
Past winners
2013
MARTIN Daniel
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
VALVERDE Alejandro
2012
IGLINSKIY Maxim
NIBALI Vincenzo
GASPAROTTO Enrico
2011
GILBERT Philippe
SCHLECK Fränk
SCHLECK Andy
Gilbert wins in 2011
2010
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
KOLOBNEV Alexandr
VALVERDE Alejandro
GILBERT Philippe
2009
SCHLECK Andy
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
REBELLIN Davide
2008
VALVERDE Alejandro
REBELLIN Davide
SCHLECK Fränk
2007
DI LUCA Danilo
VALVERDE Alejandro
SCHLECK Fränk
2006
VALVERDE Alejandro
BETTINI Paolo
CUNEGO Damiano
2005
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
VOIGT Jens
BOOGERD Michael
2004
REBELLIN Davide
BOOGERD Michael
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
2013 Liege Bastogne Liege Placings
1 MARTIN Daniel
Garmin Sharp
6:38:07
2 RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
Team Katusha
0:03
3 VALVERDE Alejandro
Movistar Team
0:09
4 BETANCUR Carlos
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
5 SCARPONI Michele
Lampre-Merida
,,
6 GASPAROTTO Enrico
Astana Pro Team
0:18
7 GILBERT Philippe
BMC Racing Team
,,
8 HESJEDAL Ryder
Garmin Sharp
,,
9 COSTA Rui
Movistar Team
,,
10 GERRANS Simon
Orica GreenEDGE
,,
11 VAUGRENARD Benoit
Equipe Cycliste FDJ
,,
12 ANTON Igor
Euskaltel - Euskadi
,,
13 BARDET Romain
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
14 NOCENTINI Rinaldo
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
15 NORDHAUG Lars Petter
Blanco Pro Cycling Team
,,
16 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
Sky Procycling
,,
Liege Bastogne Liege 2014: The Climbs
• Km 70.0 - Côte de La Roche-en-Ardenne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 6.2%
• Km 123.0 - Côte de Saint-Roch1 kilometre-long climb at 11.1%
• Km 167.0 - Côte de Wanne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 7.2%
• Km 173.5 - Côte de Stockeu1 kilometre-long climb at 12.4%
• Km 179.0 - Côte de la Haute-Levée3.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.6%
• Km 201.0 - Côte de la Vecquée3.1 kilometre-long climb at 6.4%
• Km 218.5 - Côte de La Redoute2 kilometre-long climb at 8.9%
• Km 231.5 - Côte des Forges1.9 kilometre-long climb at 5.9%
• Km 243.5 - Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons1.5 kilometre-long climb at 9.3%
• Km 257.5 - Côte de Saint-Nicolas1.2 kilometre-long climb at 8.6%
2014 Liege Bastogne Liege Best Prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/liege-bastogne-liege/winner
The Contenders:
Alejandro Valverde 4/1 - Movistar
Valverde looked like he had another gear on Wednesday winning La Fleche Wallone up the wall of Huy. Twice a winner of LBL in 2006 and 2008, 2nd in 2007 and 3rd last year he is extremely hard to discount, especially in the form he is in. He won three stages and the GC of Vuelta Andalucia, the Vuelta Murcia, Roma Maxima, the Indurain Gran Premio, was 2nd in 3 stages of the Tour of the Basque Country and 4th in Amstel Gold Race before his win in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday.
Phillipe Gilbert - 5/1 BMC
Legend. Winner of this race in 2011 when he won the treble (also Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone) he was also 3rd here in 2010 and 4th in 2009. He was only 9th in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday but the late crash caused mayhem, and he ended up in a terrible position. I'm convinced he would have been there or thereabouts without the crash, certainly no-one could live with his final kick on the Cauberg in Amstel Gold and it would be no surprise to see him win again here.
Michal Kwiatowski - 6/1 Quickstep
Signalled his intentions for this year's Classics by giving none other than Sagan a kicking on the final climb at Stade Bianchi. Before that he'd won Volta a Algarve, then was 2nd at the Tour of the Basque Country. He's been on the premises at both Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone, coming 5th and 3rd, and he was 5th in this last year. The Pole is going to be an absolute star - he sprints, climbs and time trials. It would be no surprise to see him winning this in years to come but maybe not this year.
Dan Martin - Garmin 7/1
Won this in superb style last year after superb work by his teammate Ryder Hesjedal, when he followed Purito Rodriguez's attack on the last climb and then time trialled away from him on the flatter section. He was also 5th here in 2012. Before his win last year he advertised his form with a fast-finishing 4th in Fleche Wallone. On Wednesday the Irish climber took 2nd in Fleche Wallone behind Valverde and looked very strong, so that form means he must be a very serious player for this.
Vincenzo Nibali - Astana 20/1
Nibali has looked very strong in these classics. He rode very well for a long time in Amstel Gold and then rode for Gasparotto at Fleche Wallone. He's probably the best out-and-out climber in the race, and he was 2nd in this race in 2012. I really fancy him to go well in this and at the prices he's the one I want to be on.
Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha 14/1
When the road gets very steep Purito is the best there is. He won Fleche Wallone in 2012 and was second in this behind Martin last year only getting caught late on. He was 2nd here back in 2009 as well, and if fit he would be high on the list. He crashed in Amstel Gold on Sunday and it remains to be seen whether he is over that. He raced Fleche Wallone on Wednesday and whilst his 70th place finish would suggest he isn't at 100%, he did seem to go well for a long way. Might be worth a tickle at the price.
Bauke Mollema - Belkin 28/1
Whilst he isn't as explosive a climber as some of these, Mollema is ultra-consistent, and in form. 7th in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone show you'll get a run for your money with Mollema, and there's a chance this might suit him best of all, using his strength as the gradient eases off to time trial to the finish if he can get himself on the premises, and although he was disappointing in this last year he was 6th in 2012.
Simon Gerrans - Orica 25/1
Gerrans is a top class puncher who on his day can trouble both fast men and climbers. He's ultra consistent and although his preparation for the Spring Classic season hasn't been ideal, he showed his form in the Brabant Arrow when working for his teammate Matthews. Then leading the team he was excellent in Amstel Gold when he was 3rd behind Gilbert. He didn't ride Fleche Wallone but does have a string of top finishes at LBL, with 5 top 20 finishes in the last 5 versions.
Jelle Vanendert - Lotto 25/1
Vanendert has been superb in this Ardennes Classics season, with 2nd in Amstel Gold when he seemingly came from nowhere, and 6th in Fleche Wallone. He's got previous as well, in 2012 he was 2nd in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone before a 10th place finish in LBL. Could go well at a price, but was a lot bigger for Amstel Gold.
Bets for me
*** Nibali 20/1
** Mollema 28/1
* Rodriguez 14/1
Good luck everyone, whoever you're on
La Doyenne Des ClassiquesComing hot on the heels of last weekend’s Amstel Gold Race, and Wednesday’s Fleche Wallone, we have Liege-Bastongne-Liege this Sunday. Known as the “Old Lady of Classics” or “La Doyenne”, this year’s version is the 100th version of the race. King Philippe of Belgium (the actual King, not Gilbert) will see the riders off, and the route has been designed to take in some of the classic climbs of the race’s history.
These Ardennes Classics are where the punchers and climbers come to the fore, and several of these will look to join the list of famous names that have won the race, including Gilbert, Vinoukourov (twice), Valverde (twice) and Andy Schleck in recent years. The race has as much climbing as many Alpine Stages of the Tour de France, and with its daunting climbs and terrifying descents, Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a fearsome test.
Almost all the climbs vary in gradient from section to section, making a balance between power and stamina a must, and gear choice crucial. There are two climbs towards the closing kilometres. The penultimate climb is with about 5k to go is 1.2k at 8.6%. The finish at Ans is at the top of a climb, the last 1.5k averages 5.3% but in reality the last half kilometre are just false flat, and the section before that is steeper.
Martin wins LBL last yearLast year Dan Martin won, beating off Purito Rodriguez after following his attack then attacking past him once it flattened out towards the line. Watch the final few kilometres of Dan Martin's 2013 win here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4O5bb2XDdc
Past winners
2013
MARTIN Daniel
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
VALVERDE Alejandro
2012
IGLINSKIY Maxim
NIBALI Vincenzo
GASPAROTTO Enrico
2011
GILBERT Philippe
SCHLECK Fränk
SCHLECK Andy
Gilbert wins in 20112010
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
KOLOBNEV Alexandr
VALVERDE Alejandro
GILBERT Philippe
2009
SCHLECK Andy
RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
REBELLIN Davide
2008
VALVERDE Alejandro
REBELLIN Davide
SCHLECK Fränk
2007
DI LUCA Danilo
VALVERDE Alejandro
SCHLECK Fränk
2006
VALVERDE Alejandro
BETTINI Paolo
CUNEGO Damiano
2005
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
VOIGT Jens
BOOGERD Michael
2004
REBELLIN Davide
BOOGERD Michael
VINOKOUROV Alexandre
2013 Liege Bastogne Liege Placings
1 MARTIN Daniel
Garmin Sharp
6:38:07
2 RODRIGUEZ Joaquim
Team Katusha
0:03
3 VALVERDE Alejandro
Movistar Team
0:09
4 BETANCUR Carlos
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
5 SCARPONI Michele
Lampre-Merida
,,
6 GASPAROTTO Enrico
Astana Pro Team
0:18
7 GILBERT Philippe
BMC Racing Team
,,
8 HESJEDAL Ryder
Garmin Sharp
,,
9 COSTA Rui
Movistar Team
,,
10 GERRANS Simon
Orica GreenEDGE
,,
11 VAUGRENARD Benoit
Equipe Cycliste FDJ
,,
12 ANTON Igor
Euskaltel - Euskadi
,,
13 BARDET Romain
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
14 NOCENTINI Rinaldo
AG2R La Mondiale
,,
15 NORDHAUG Lars Petter
Blanco Pro Cycling Team
,,
16 HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis
Sky Procycling
,,
Liege Bastogne Liege 2014: The Climbs
• Km 70.0 - Côte de La Roche-en-Ardenne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 6.2%
• Km 123.0 - Côte de Saint-Roch1 kilometre-long climb at 11.1%
• Km 167.0 - Côte de Wanne2.8 kilometre-long climb at 7.2%
• Km 173.5 - Côte de Stockeu1 kilometre-long climb at 12.4%
• Km 179.0 - Côte de la Haute-Levée3.6 kilometre-long climb at 5.6%
• Km 201.0 - Côte de la Vecquée3.1 kilometre-long climb at 6.4%
• Km 218.5 - Côte de La Redoute2 kilometre-long climb at 8.9%
• Km 231.5 - Côte des Forges1.9 kilometre-long climb at 5.9%
• Km 243.5 - Côte de La Roche-aux-Faucons1.5 kilometre-long climb at 9.3%
• Km 257.5 - Côte de Saint-Nicolas1.2 kilometre-long climb at 8.6%
2014 Liege Bastogne Liege Best Prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/liege-bastogne-liege/winner
The Contenders:
Alejandro Valverde 4/1 - Movistar
Valverde looked like he had another gear on Wednesday winning La Fleche Wallone up the wall of Huy. Twice a winner of LBL in 2006 and 2008, 2nd in 2007 and 3rd last year he is extremely hard to discount, especially in the form he is in. He won three stages and the GC of Vuelta Andalucia, the Vuelta Murcia, Roma Maxima, the Indurain Gran Premio, was 2nd in 3 stages of the Tour of the Basque Country and 4th in Amstel Gold Race before his win in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday.
Phillipe Gilbert - 5/1 BMC
Legend. Winner of this race in 2011 when he won the treble (also Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone) he was also 3rd here in 2010 and 4th in 2009. He was only 9th in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday but the late crash caused mayhem, and he ended up in a terrible position. I'm convinced he would have been there or thereabouts without the crash, certainly no-one could live with his final kick on the Cauberg in Amstel Gold and it would be no surprise to see him win again here.
Michal Kwiatowski - 6/1 Quickstep
Signalled his intentions for this year's Classics by giving none other than Sagan a kicking on the final climb at Stade Bianchi. Before that he'd won Volta a Algarve, then was 2nd at the Tour of the Basque Country. He's been on the premises at both Amstel Gold and Fleche Wallone, coming 5th and 3rd, and he was 5th in this last year. The Pole is going to be an absolute star - he sprints, climbs and time trials. It would be no surprise to see him winning this in years to come but maybe not this year.
Dan Martin - Garmin 7/1
Won this in superb style last year after superb work by his teammate Ryder Hesjedal, when he followed Purito Rodriguez's attack on the last climb and then time trialled away from him on the flatter section. He was also 5th here in 2012. Before his win last year he advertised his form with a fast-finishing 4th in Fleche Wallone. On Wednesday the Irish climber took 2nd in Fleche Wallone behind Valverde and looked very strong, so that form means he must be a very serious player for this.
Vincenzo Nibali - Astana 20/1
Nibali has looked very strong in these classics. He rode very well for a long time in Amstel Gold and then rode for Gasparotto at Fleche Wallone. He's probably the best out-and-out climber in the race, and he was 2nd in this race in 2012. I really fancy him to go well in this and at the prices he's the one I want to be on.
Joaquim Rodriguez - Katusha 14/1
When the road gets very steep Purito is the best there is. He won Fleche Wallone in 2012 and was second in this behind Martin last year only getting caught late on. He was 2nd here back in 2009 as well, and if fit he would be high on the list. He crashed in Amstel Gold on Sunday and it remains to be seen whether he is over that. He raced Fleche Wallone on Wednesday and whilst his 70th place finish would suggest he isn't at 100%, he did seem to go well for a long way. Might be worth a tickle at the price.
Bauke Mollema - Belkin 28/1
Whilst he isn't as explosive a climber as some of these, Mollema is ultra-consistent, and in form. 7th in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone show you'll get a run for your money with Mollema, and there's a chance this might suit him best of all, using his strength as the gradient eases off to time trial to the finish if he can get himself on the premises, and although he was disappointing in this last year he was 6th in 2012.
Simon Gerrans - Orica 25/1
Gerrans is a top class puncher who on his day can trouble both fast men and climbers. He's ultra consistent and although his preparation for the Spring Classic season hasn't been ideal, he showed his form in the Brabant Arrow when working for his teammate Matthews. Then leading the team he was excellent in Amstel Gold when he was 3rd behind Gilbert. He didn't ride Fleche Wallone but does have a string of top finishes at LBL, with 5 top 20 finishes in the last 5 versions.
Jelle Vanendert - Lotto 25/1
Vanendert has been superb in this Ardennes Classics season, with 2nd in Amstel Gold when he seemingly came from nowhere, and 6th in Fleche Wallone. He's got previous as well, in 2012 he was 2nd in Amstel Gold and 4th in Fleche Wallone before a 10th place finish in LBL. Could go well at a price, but was a lot bigger for Amstel Gold.
Bets for me
*** Nibali 20/1
** Mollema 28/1
* Rodriguez 14/1
Good luck everyone, whoever you're on
two cracking write ups here, thank you
i have felt that this was going to be the aim of Astana all spring,obviously all teams want the win here but this is the focus of Astana who have a terrific record in this race. Nibali threatens to attack early as in 2012 and having ridden for Gasparotto last week i think the courtesy will be returned here. This will probably only be plan A though and i fully expect the team to be in position should the peleton hunt Nibali down. With back up riders in the form of Fuglsang, Gasparotto, Grivko and Iglinskiy other potential winners are in the team
i am going to be totally blinkered in this race and have Nibali as my main bet but savers on his team mates
good luck with your selections and good luck to the riders.
Its a cracking Sunday with live coverage of the Tour Of Turkey on Eurosport before L-B-L
i have felt that this was going to be the aim of Astana all spring,obviously all teams want the win here but this is the focus of Astana who have a terrific record in this race. Nibali threatens to attack early as in 2012 and having ridden for Gasparotto last week i think the courtesy will be returned here. This will probably only be plan A though and i fully expect the team to be in position should the peleton hunt Nibali down. With back up riders in the form of Fuglsang, Gasparotto, Grivko and Iglinskiy other potential winners are in the team
i am going to be totally blinkered in this race and have Nibali as my main bet but savers on his team mates
good luck with your selections and good luck to the riders.
Its a cracking Sunday with live coverage of the Tour Of Turkey on Eurosport before L-B-L
Nice one CM, thanks.
Late surprise to see that OPQ have included Tony Martin for this race. Will be working for Kwiatkowski, but I can't pass-up the 200/1 E/W (*) (should be 400/1) in case he goes to close an attack and finds himself in a race-winning group, like with Kolobnev. Was riding in a very forward position in AGR, so the basis for my theory was correct, but hopefully this time he can keep the bad luck at bay and not find himself tumbling into a bush.
Tour of Turkey is not much of a betting race, but it is worth watching as there is some future talent which goes around, and might be worth taking some notice of. Not bad scenery, too.
Cheers,
SP
Late surprise to see that OPQ have included Tony Martin for this race. Will be working for Kwiatkowski, but I can't pass-up the 200/1 E/W (*) (should be 400/1) in case he goes to close an attack and finds himself in a race-winning group, like with Kolobnev. Was riding in a very forward position in AGR, so the basis for my theory was correct, but hopefully this time he can keep the bad luck at bay and not find himself tumbling into a bush.
Tour of Turkey is not much of a betting race, but it is worth watching as there is some future talent which goes around, and might be worth taking some notice of. Not bad scenery, too.
Cheers,
SP
The market for this race on oddschecker demonstrates one of the reasons why I love cycling. There is quite a lot of variance between different bookies on almost all the riders.
Alright, take Wiliam Hill's laughable attempt to price this up at a 200% book out of the equation, but even then, you've still got huge differences in riders' prices. Laddies seem to be opposing Nibali and Rodriguez, going a stand out 14/1, short as 12s and 8s elsewhere. Bet365 have Kwiatowski at 15/1, and seem to be purposely opposing him, as he's as short as 7s elsewhere.
Can't make up my mind if they've taken their eyes off the ball or if they are actually daring to be bookies cos they know they never take that much cash.
Alright, take Wiliam Hill's laughable attempt to price this up at a 200% book out of the equation, but even then, you've still got huge differences in riders' prices. Laddies seem to be opposing Nibali and Rodriguez, going a stand out 14/1, short as 12s and 8s elsewhere. Bet365 have Kwiatowski at 15/1, and seem to be purposely opposing him, as he's as short as 7s elsewhere.
Can't make up my mind if they've taken their eyes off the ball or if they are actually daring to be bookies cos they know they never take that much cash.
I suspect you know it's the latter MC. 
Once the Tour markets begin pumping they'll fall into line quick smart. 
It is a pity that BF markets have no liquidity for most of the year, because it would be nice to take proper advantage of their Bookie status and legitimacy. But I guess liquidity on here would have a direct negative effect on Book prices out there, in terms of not seeing that which you have observed for our scrutiny. 
SP.
Once the Tour markets begin pumping they'll fall into line quick smart. It is a pity that BF markets have no liquidity for most of the year, because it would be nice to take proper advantage of their Bookie status and legitimacy. But I guess liquidity on here would have a direct negative effect on Book prices out there, in terms of not seeing that which you have observed for our scrutiny. SP.
Almost certainly true. It's nice though, different to a number of other sports where they won't dare to take an opinion and you're lucky if you can find a tick difference between the lot of them.
Excellent previews and write ups as usual SP and MC.
As I have wrote a few times recently I was all over Purito for this race for a long time. I thought he messed up last year and attacked too early and allowed Dan Martin to pick him up. A fit Purito wouldn't make the same mistake again but is he fit? The answer has to be no.
I'm also against Gilbert. I was very keen on him in the last two races but I felt he lacked something in the FW. Ok he got caught behind a crash but Dan Martin got caught behind the same crash. Plus, although Gilbert has won this race before, I've never thought it has suited him as much as AG and he has been badly dropped on the finishing climb many time before.
I'm surprised SP has ditched Kwiatowski for LBL. I like his chances a lot. He looked really strong on Wednesday. Much better than Gilbert. And tried to go for the power man sprint up the final wall. He was fighting them off until Martin and Valverde swooped late but it was still a cracking ride and he is going to be hard to kick out of the frame again tomorrow.
I agree with SP re Simon Gerrans. I thought he looked good in AG. And as SP rightly points out, when Gerrans aims for a race he is never that far away. strong team riding for him.
I know people are instantly put off by the rainbow jersey jinx but I reckon Rui Costa has a massive chance. I think he has shown up reasonable in the past few weeks and this has been the aim. And this type of course should suit him down to a tee. As he proved in the worlds he is a brilliant tactical rider.
And I can't resist chucking a few quid on the Astana 'b' team
of Fuglsang, Gasparotto and Iglinskiy
As I have wrote a few times recently I was all over Purito for this race for a long time. I thought he messed up last year and attacked too early and allowed Dan Martin to pick him up. A fit Purito wouldn't make the same mistake again but is he fit? The answer has to be no.
I'm also against Gilbert. I was very keen on him in the last two races but I felt he lacked something in the FW. Ok he got caught behind a crash but Dan Martin got caught behind the same crash. Plus, although Gilbert has won this race before, I've never thought it has suited him as much as AG and he has been badly dropped on the finishing climb many time before.
I'm surprised SP has ditched Kwiatowski for LBL. I like his chances a lot. He looked really strong on Wednesday. Much better than Gilbert. And tried to go for the power man sprint up the final wall. He was fighting them off until Martin and Valverde swooped late but it was still a cracking ride and he is going to be hard to kick out of the frame again tomorrow.
I agree with SP re Simon Gerrans. I thought he looked good in AG. And as SP rightly points out, when Gerrans aims for a race he is never that far away. strong team riding for him.
I know people are instantly put off by the rainbow jersey jinx but I reckon Rui Costa has a massive chance. I think he has shown up reasonable in the past few weeks and this has been the aim. And this type of course should suit him down to a tee. As he proved in the worlds he is a brilliant tactical rider.
And I can't resist chucking a few quid on the Astana 'b' team
of Fuglsang, Gasparotto and Iglinskiy
Great work fella's, a brilliant read, and all excellent points.
The LBL is one of my favourite races of the season. This years race should be another long , enthralling day. You could make a case for any number of riders her, and to be honest you could back 6 or 7 and still not have anyone on the podium! So i'm going to limit self to 3 picks this year -
PURITO 12/1 - Went very close last year, and has long been determined to avenge that this year, he has to be there or there abouts. The only question mark is his fitness, after is heavy fall at the Amstel. From what ive heard and read, he was a bit worried about his ribs going in to wallonie, however he says he felt fine and very comfortable throughout. He did take another small fall, but nothing to worry about, and is now raring to go for sunday. We know he is desperate to win this, and he just has to be there at the finale.
KREUZIGER 33/1 - Won the amstel last year, so has shown he is very capable of winning a classic. This has been one of his big targets for the whole season. He finished 18th last weekend, and then 8th in the week, so he is defintely coming here in good shape. I'd be surprised if he is not at least top 10 and probably better!
PORTE 150/1 - My final pick is a bit more left field. Porte has no real history of any one day classic performances, but he is a top rider, an excellent climber, and does possess a finishing kick. He will be Sky's team leader so am surprised he is much bigger than Froome in the betting?? He had been in very good form this season, (as shown when kicking away from Ulissi, Gerrans, Evans et al at the tour of down under). Though he did pick up an illness at Tirreno-Adriatico which has set him back a bit, but is said to be fine now. It is a bit of a wild pick, but as we know Sky are desperate to win one of these classics, so will be desperate for a big performance tomorrow after a no show last weekend. They had been going pretty well in the one days this spring with big performances from Thomas and Swift, and then Thomas and Wiggins going very close to getting on the podium at Paris-Roubaix. Could this be the day Sky finally win one? Unlikely but funnier things have happened, and with Froome more focussed on the upcoming Romandie, Porte should be their main man.
Good luck everyone.
The LBL is one of my favourite races of the season. This years race should be another long , enthralling day. You could make a case for any number of riders her, and to be honest you could back 6 or 7 and still not have anyone on the podium! So i'm going to limit self to 3 picks this year -
PURITO 12/1 - Went very close last year, and has long been determined to avenge that this year, he has to be there or there abouts. The only question mark is his fitness, after is heavy fall at the Amstel. From what ive heard and read, he was a bit worried about his ribs going in to wallonie, however he says he felt fine and very comfortable throughout. He did take another small fall, but nothing to worry about, and is now raring to go for sunday. We know he is desperate to win this, and he just has to be there at the finale.
KREUZIGER 33/1 - Won the amstel last year, so has shown he is very capable of winning a classic. This has been one of his big targets for the whole season. He finished 18th last weekend, and then 8th in the week, so he is defintely coming here in good shape. I'd be surprised if he is not at least top 10 and probably better!
PORTE 150/1 - My final pick is a bit more left field. Porte has no real history of any one day classic performances, but he is a top rider, an excellent climber, and does possess a finishing kick. He will be Sky's team leader so am surprised he is much bigger than Froome in the betting?? He had been in very good form this season, (as shown when kicking away from Ulissi, Gerrans, Evans et al at the tour of down under). Though he did pick up an illness at Tirreno-Adriatico which has set him back a bit, but is said to be fine now. It is a bit of a wild pick, but as we know Sky are desperate to win one of these classics, so will be desperate for a big performance tomorrow after a no show last weekend. They had been going pretty well in the one days this spring with big performances from Thomas and Swift, and then Thomas and Wiggins going very close to getting on the podium at Paris-Roubaix. Could this be the day Sky finally win one? Unlikely but funnier things have happened, and with Froome more focussed on the upcoming Romandie, Porte should be their main man.
Good luck everyone.
I was wondering about Porte, and think there could be a climber from left-field. I've decided to have a little bit on Pierre Rolland. His very average time trialling will always stop him winning any major stage races, but his climbing can be as good as anyone's, and LBL with all the climbing on offer should suit him. In his two attempts at this he's got 24th and 12th.
Form has to be taken on trust, but I've had a little tickle at 200/1
Form has to be taken on trust, but I've had a little tickle at 200/1
Good to get some opposition and variety of views -- nice one HB and Clay. 
Just on Kwiatkowski -- I really do think that his condition is hanging on by a thread, and in a race such as this, freshness is key, I think. I don't see him featuring in anything considerable, which inadvertently supports my Tony Martin theory a little.
Would add Kreuziger and Rui Costa, but after adding Martin, I'm at my self-imposed limit. As HB says, you could pick up to seven riders and still miss the podium, but I'm quite happy with the five I've decided to back. Hopefully, it won't be three third places in a row. SP.
Just on Kwiatkowski -- I really do think that his condition is hanging on by a thread, and in a race such as this, freshness is key, I think. I don't see him featuring in anything considerable, which inadvertently supports my Tony Martin theory a little.
Would add Kreuziger and Rui Costa, but after adding Martin, I'm at my self-imposed limit. As HB says, you could pick up to seven riders and still miss the podium, but I'm quite happy with the five I've decided to back. Hopefully, it won't be three third places in a row.
SP.
Racing Post picks
B. Mollema 1pt e/w @ 25/1
R. Costa 1pt e/w @ 33/1
B. Mollema 1pt e/w @ 25/1
R. Costa 1pt e/w @ 33/1
15min lead for a break
Lang (iam)
Venter (mtn)
Bono (lam)
Jacobs (tsv)
Minnard (wgg)
Koch (can)
Lang (iam)
Venter (mtn)
Bono (lam)
Jacobs (tsv)
Minnard (wgg)
Koch (can)
100k remaining. 15.30 for the break. Sounds like a lot but will come down quickly now they've passed Bastogne.
Rui Costa and Purito both abandon! Bad fall for Costa, and Purito obviously still in pain from Amstel. I was sure where i read he was feeling comfortable on wednesday! Obviously not the case, and his Giro ambitions must now be in question??
This break isn't going to last much longer, 2 mins 30 left.
50k to go
50k to go
I see Nibali, Mollema, Dan Martin & Gilbert in there too
2k to go Caruso & Pozzovivo 9 seconds ahead of a large chasing group
Think Kwiatkowski was the one most inconvenienced by Martin's crash
Yes well done SP. Though very bad luck for anyone that backed Dan Martin, feel sure he would have won if he hadn't come off on that final bend, got to feel for Martin there, looked like he was riding away from everyone.
well done SP , good finish, not a classic LBL nobody allowed to get away congrats to Gerrans, sympathy for Martin
How many classics is Kwiatkowski going to win? What an absolute superstar in the making (he's brilliant already)
just classics CP? what about a future Grand Tour winner, he can time trial as well
Cheers MC, CM, HB. Hope you had some on since you agreed with me, Clay?
The Rainbow Jersey curse strikes again unfortunately. Agree with the bad luck for Dan Martin, not sure what happened there, looks like his front wheel just came out from under him? The Sky control on the front didn't really happen like I thought, non-existant, although Froome didn't start so that would've affected their outlook. They're looking quite poor now, big story developing there, I think. Kwiatkowski may have been inconvenienced but I'll need to check the tape, certainly rode btter than I thought he would. Valverde just looked like his legs were stung from doing some work on the climbs. Gerrans, and the OGE team, what can you say? He did absolutely nothing for the whole race, had Impey out the back for all his hard work in service for him, and his freshness worked a treat this year. Showed good patience, too. Great race! SP.
The Rainbow Jersey curse strikes again unfortunately. Agree with the bad luck for Dan Martin, not sure what happened there, looks like his front wheel just came out from under him? The Sky control on the front didn't really happen like I thought, non-existant, although Froome didn't start so that would've affected their outlook. They're looking quite poor now, big story developing there, I think. Kwiatkowski may have been inconvenienced but I'll need to check the tape, certainly rode btter than I thought he would. Valverde just looked like his legs were stung from doing some work on the climbs. Gerrans, and the OGE team, what can you say? He did absolutely nothing for the whole race, had Impey out the back for all his hard work in service for him, and his freshness worked a treat this year. Showed good patience, too. Great race! SP.
Right. Going to get on with writing a Giro preview...
Nice one, Clay.
Just on Dan Martin's crash, he has said the it was a slip on some oil, but it looks to me like he might have possibly also dragged his inside pedal on the ground and the rear wheel has slipped from him being tilted over too much. Amateur mistake if that's the case, even with a combination of things since he wasn't overly neat in that corner. But Kwiatkowski is definitely the most inconvenienced from Martin's crash, he is forced to take the widest line, and joins on the back as Gerrans begins his move. SP
Just on Dan Martin's crash, he has said the it was a slip on some oil, but it looks to me like he might have possibly also dragged his inside pedal on the ground and the rear wheel has slipped from him being tilted over too much. Amateur mistake if that's the case, even with a combination of things since he wasn't overly neat in that corner. But Kwiatkowski is definitely the most inconvenienced from Martin's crash, he is forced to take the widest line, and joins on the back as Gerrans begins his move. SP
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539