Liege-Bastogne-Liege

The third and last of the Ardennes classics is also the penultimate monument for the season, and is regarded as the toughest of the three. At 263kms long it is a true classic, and featuring ten climbs, with nearly all of them coming in the second-half of the race, and it will likely be won by a tough-as-nails type of rider who can do it all, and has the legs on the day.

Team Sky are feeling the pressure after a poor start to the season, and they will look to ramp-up their efforts in the coming races to find form, team harmony, and team combinations ahead of the Tour. It is therefore no surprise to see Porte and Froome appear together for this race, now that the Australian bar-room brawler won’t be riding the Giro. I believe this is essentially going to be a hard training ride for the team, and if that proves to be the case than I would expect a proper Sky train doing the lion-share of the work on the front of the peloton. Which means two things: 1.) Principals with strong teams may do less work, and 2.) Principals with weak teams won’t have to do as much work. I therefore believe that what we are most likely to see, closer to the finish than to the beginning, is some attempts at destructive long-range attacks going off the front, including the lieutenants’ of Principals who chase down attacks but get stuck in the leading group, and more likely, late attacks between the Principals ending in a proper selection. Unlike the previous two Ardennes races, breakaways winning here is not that uncommon.

Valverde won last start in LFW with an experienced showing, and I clearly made a mistake in overlooking him. His ride in AGR for 4th wasn’t a bad ride, it just wasn’t as brilliant as his season prior to it, and I was perhaps too judgemental in wrongly identifying that a 4th place result prior was him finally losing condition. He now has four wins this season, along with a podium and a top-5 in the one day classics, plus a stage race in Andalucia where he won two stages and the prologue. The Roma Maxima win is worth noting as a good ride along a tough, if short, parcours. He is rightfully favourite here on the back of his win on Wednesday, and furthermore his short price is of no surprise when taking into account that he was 3rd last year, not to mention that he has won this race twice previous, in 2006 for the first time, and then in 2008. Very strong prospects.

Philippe Gilbert was unlucky in LFW, we know it happens in cycling, however I see no reason why his suitability and chances here are any less likely for that last start failure. He wrongly hoped that by the approach to the Wall the final time, there would only be twenty riders remaining to tackle it, a manageable group for a pirate such as him to best; but it is also worth observing that he passed some six riders in riding into a top-10 place. The likelihood of there being a more  manageable dynamic (as I have suggested above) is much more likely in a race with a proven history of long-range attacking success and that suits the tactics of a pirate who grew-up in the area, knows the parcours, enjoys the race, and has won it before, of course in 2011. Warrants respect.

Dan Martin is coming into this as the defending champion, and after his strong ride for 2nd on Wednesday when looking like he might possibly win, he is deserving of being on the third line of betting. He hasn’t really done much else this season, but present good form is all that matters and he should be amongst the main contenders. Having said that, he looked light to me, and for a course which demands a hard brand of toughness to win, especially to win back-to-back, he presents as a little suspect. Not to be discounted lightly. Place claims best.

Purito had this race as his number one goal for the season, perhaps because of finishing 2nd last year to winner Dan Martin, but with his crash in AGR and another one in LFW within the last 3 kms, it is warranted to begin to doubt his chances here. Nevertheless, Purito has brushed-away any physical concerns after the conclusion of LFW, indeed inferring that he is better for it, so it becomes a tough call to get right and perhaps his price is the best arbitrator of his chances. The ability of turning over a big gear on some of these false flats and long climbs, means he has some advantage and which makes him difficult to discount. Take on trust. 

Michal Kwiatkowski finally got the podium he was promising in the Ardennes with his grinding effort for 3rd last start in LFW, however he was never in the picture for the win. Then combine this with his performance in AGR where he showed very little, in the failed sprint to the line against Gerrans and Valverde to finish 5th, and apart from putting Sagan to the sword in Italy, it seems to me like someone always seems to have the better answer to his quite difficult questions. Nevertheless, he is having the best season of his young career and is riding with good confidence, which is a dangerous recipe. He has two one day classic wins, that 3rd place last start, a top-5, a top-10, and he also won the Algarve stage race with two stage wins. Having said all that, he may be a little over-rated for a tough parcours. Take on trust.

Vincenzo Nibali – waiting on confirmation that he will start. 23rd last year. 2nd in 2012. Suited best by the parcours of all three Ardennes races, and there is evidence of a building of condition. Tough nut to crack so far this season, though. Wait to see.

Jelle Vanendert – waiting on confirmation that he will start. Shrugged off injury cloud with a strong performance in LFW, last start. Wait to see.

Simon Gerrans, may might find that extra bit of freshness he requires to perform well here after having had a break from riding LFW. He was 10th last year, after also missing the midweek LFW. I don’t know what sort of team he had last year, but certainly this year he has a very strong one, indeed. Particularly, Impey, Albasini, Weening and Clarke, should all be at his side for a very long way and that is a big advantage given my view of Sky’s involvement. He is in good form with that 3rd place in AGR, will give an honest account of himself, and has the ability to win his second monument. One of the main contenders.

Rui Costa may be suffering the curse of the Rainbow Jersey with no wins so far this season, but there is evidence he is building form and is much better suited by the parcours here. His team looks strong, and it is worth noting that the team has been working on team harmony and trying to build a winning culture around the likeable World Champion. Worthy of close consideration.

Bauke Mollema is coming into this at the right time. No wins this season, but his best result here is a 6th place finish in 2012 in a similar-looking Ardennes campaign, although he looks sharper than that this time in, and a podium result is a real possibility. Poor value. Keep safe.

Alex Kolobnev caught the eye with a performance which looked indefatigable and almost indestructible in AGR. If Purito is not up for it here, he may look to become the team’s joker card. Moreover, he may just find himself in a break in protecting Purito by closing an attack which pushes the pace and combines in a gap-winning break. Take on trust.

**** Philippe Gilbert WIN ONLY 9/2
***   Simon Gerrans E/W           24/1
**     Alex Kolobnev     E/W              150/1 Should be 300/1
*       Bauke Mollema E/W           27/1 Should be 66/1

Good luck to all,
SP