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I would really fancy Boonen here if it wasn't for his thuimb injury. I still thought he did well in the Tour of Flanders despite being in some discomfort over the bigger cobblestones. Anyone know if it will clear up by next week? Imho, Boonen is the only one who can burn Spartacus when he goes into beast mode
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Hey Clay -- Still putting together my ratings for this one, and will be going back to the tape, but I had a sneaky close-up inspection of Boonen on the Koppenberg, when GVA made the first selection which strangely then sat back once over the top after it.
 And, from what I can tell is that it's not much of an issue -- there wasn't much, if any, bandaging from what I could tell, and his hands rested neatly on the handlebars. I would think that the thumb is at the stage of being intensely itchy, which is a sensation which confirms that it's healing, and with such soft tissue injuries it shouldn't be a pain that fatigues him additionally, but more a burning itch which shouldn't be an inconvenience, but he knows it's there. Put it this way, he won't not win this because of his thumb, I don't think.To be plain, I don't think the thumb injury is as bad as it was reported now actually, and from what I can tell it appears that his problems are more mental than physical. Not willing to decide on him just now nevertheless, but I would advise you go with him if you have the faith mate.  The books are are having a giraffe on this market,  so hope they can get their acts together and watch those over-rounds. I mean if they slash Kristoff from 66/1 into 10/1 than it stands to reason that some of that is put back into the ones in the middle. There is no bloody middle here.  In short, if you can get 9/1 on Boonen than that would be a sensible price, given what we know he can do. But I'm not ready to move until I see some reason come back into the books. You can't have one short-priced favourite and then about ten whose prices you've slashed to nothing, and grouped the middle with nothing left on the bone whatsoever. It's a joke, and I wouldn't be have anything to do with them if some Tour liquidity began to flow on here. Cheers, SP |
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I'm planning a bit of a write-up of Paris-Roubaix. It'll be up on here by Wednesday.
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Hey MC, look forward to it mate, don't forget Scheldeprijs tomorrow with a host of riders facing-off ahead of the Hell of the North. SP.
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Yeah just been having a look at that one
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The way the books are reacting to things, I expect Sunday's market to be tightened-up a lot more neatly after it.
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Paris-Roubaix
 Paris-Roubaix http://www.letour.com/paris-roubaix/2014/us/race.html is the third of the cobbled classics (along with the Tour of Flanders and Gent-Wevelgem). It is also one of cycling’s 5 “Monuments” along with Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Italy’s Giro Lombardia. The profile is almost pan-flat  but not for nothing, the race is also known as “The Hell of the North” due to the length of the race, huge amounts of cobbles and frequent bad weather.  A list of previous winners includes Eddy Merckx, Roger De Vlaeminck, Francesco Moser, Sean Kelly, Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara. Route Although called Paris-Roubaix, the race actually starts in Compiègne, 50 miles North East of Paris.  The race is 260km long this year, and although there are no cobbles in the first 100km, in the last 150km there are 50km of cobbled sections for the riders to negotiate.  Two of the most famous sections of cobbles are Mons-en-Pevele and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre. Both are long sections of cobbles, come within the last 50km and can be treacherous in bad conditions so both have helped shape the race in years gone by.  When the riders arrive in Roubaix they head for the famous outdoor velodrome  and the finish line follows 750m on the smooth velodrome concrete.Past Races 2013 CANCELLARA Fabian VANMARCKE Sep TERPSTRA Niki 2012 BOONEN Tom TURGOT Sébastien BALLAN Alessandro  2011 VANSUMMEREN Johan CANCELLARA Fabian TJALLINGII Maarten 2010 CANCELLARA Fabian HUSHOVD Thor FLECHA Juan Antonio  2009 BOONEN Tom POZZATO Filippo HUSHOVD Thor 2008 BOONEN Tom CANCELLARA Fabian BALLAN Alessandro 2007 O'GRADY Stuart FLECHA Juan Antonio WESEMANN Steffen 2006 CANCELLARA Fabian BOONEN Tom BALLAN Alessandro  2005 BOONEN Tom HINCAPIE George FLECHA Juan Antonio 2004 BACKSTEDT Magnus HOFFMAN Tristan HAMMOND Roger 2014 One-Day Classics Winners so far Milan San-Remo – Alexander Kristoff E3 Harelbeke – Peter Sagan Gent Wevelgem – John Degenkolb Tour of Flanders – Fabian Cancellara Paris Roubaix:Contenders Fabian “Spartacus” Cancellara (Trek BP 2/1)  Winner of Paris-Roubaix in 2006, 2010 and 2013, Cancellara showed his strength last Sunday when despite being favourite, and having to deal with the massed ranks of Quickstep rivals, managed to win from a break of four. Rightly the favourite, has no weaknesses. He is the strongest, the most tactically astute and can win solo or from a group. The Swiss rider known as Spartacus is the one everyone else has to beat.Tom "Tornado Tom" Boonen (Quickstep BP 15/2)  is a hugely decorated Belgian classics specialist who has won this race three times (05, 08, 09 & 2012), as well as Gent-Wevelgem three times and Tour of Flanders three times. Looked strong in the first half of Tour of Flanders last week but a broken thumb and some personal issues mean his prep has not been ideal and he faded. Can contend if he’s recovered.Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin BP 7/1) was second last year to Cancellara. The Belgian has been in excellent form this year too, with a 3rd place in Tour of Flanders last week and in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Vanmarcke has also picked up 4th in Omloop and Gent-Wevelgem this year, and 5th in E3 Harelbeke. I suspect that Vanmarcke is the rider Cancellara most fears. Peter “The Terminator” Sagan (Canondale BP 12/1)  an outstanding up-and-coming talent, who can sprint, climb and has stamina to burn. A top all-rounder who has focussed on classics whose palmares at this stage of his career is frightening. Twice winner of the green jersey at the Tour de France, with 4 stage wins at the Tour, 3 stages wins at the Vuelta to his name, The Slovak superstar has also won E3 Harelbeke this year and Gent-Wevelgem last year. He hasn’t yet won a “monument” though, and possibly found the pressure too much when beaten favourite at Milan-San Remo the last two years. Was well fancied for Tour of Flanders last week but couldn’t cope with the attacks from others and finished a disappointing 16th. Will be tough to beat in a sprint if the others haven’t dropped him by the velodrome though.Zdenek Stybar (Quickstep BP 15/1)  Better known until recently for his cyclo-cross exploits, the Czech rider is making a real name for himself on the road. A collision with a spectator when he was in the front three late on curtailed his chances in Paris-Roubaix last year, and he eventually finished 6th. Stybar has shown himself in decent form this year, with a 7th in Milan-San Remo, and top 20 finishes in Gent-Wevelgem, Tour of Flanders and E3 Harebeke. Alexander Kristoff (Katusha 18/1)  A 50/1 winner of Milan San-Remo, Kristoff has shown he has the legs for a sprint at the end of a day of hell in the saddle. As short as 8/1 in places, he’ll be a danger to all if he’s still there at the end, and his 5th place at Tour of Flanders shows he’s in top form and can handle himself on the cobbles. Was 9th last year, but the Norweigen must be in fine heart for a better show this time round.Greg Van Avarmaet (BMC 20/1)  An excellent ride in the Tour of Flanders to come 2nd to Cancellara, Van Avarmaet definitely has the legs for Paris-Roubaix, and the Belgian was 4th in 2013. He has several other good classics results to his name, with a 2nd in Omloop this year and 3rd in Gent-Wevelgem (2013) but the worry would be whether he is always the bridesmaid and never the bride.Niki Terpstra (Quickstep 25/1)  Terpstra has been getting closer in Paris-Roubaix and was 17th (2009), 5th (2012) and 3rd in 2013. He is also in superb form, winning The Tour of Qatar and Dwars Van Vlaanderen, as well as 5th at Omloop, 2nd at E3 Harelbeke and 6th in Tour of Flanders. Taylor Phinney (BMC 28/1)  Phinney is a promising young American rider, who looks ideally suited for the test that Paris-Roubaix will provide. He has had some interruptions to his prep this spring but looked very strong at Flanders. His staying on 6th at Milan-San Remo in 2013 shows he has stamina in spades, and although he doesn’t have the experience of some of these, he could surprise a few.Other contenders are Degenkolb (25/1) who won Gent-Wevelgem this year, Stijn Devolder (50/1)  is 34 now but has cobbled classics wins to his name and is another card for Quickstep to play. Sky have got three possible cards in Geraint Thomas  (40/1), Eddy Boassen Hagen (50/1) and Bradley Wiggins (40/1). Wiggins is Sky’s team leader, and has this as his main aim for the first part of the season, but he hasn’t shown anything that makes you think he can compete here. Van Summeren (Orica 300/1) won in 2011, and along with Thor Hushovd (BMC 100/1) has 4 top 10 finishes to his name, but on current form it’s difficult to imagine him rescaling those heights.All prices http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/paris-roubaix/winner Cancellara is rightly favourite for me, but is very short. I'd want at least 9/1 as SP says to consider Boonen, so two bets for me at the prices are: Kristoff 18/1 Terpstra 25/1 good luck everyone, should be a superb spectacle  |
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Damn, need to work on how the pictures come out - looks dreadful
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I've been real lazy this year and not pinched any early big prices.
Kristoff and Degenkolb would have been nice to have on side at fancier prices but are unbackable for me at current. I'll be back closer to the time with more definitives, think I may go decent on one or two of the shorties... Just taken Hushovd thought at 100/1, his form has been a bit poor this year and it is more a heart over head choice for me as he has been my favourite rider for years now. But this race means the world to him and he put in an okay performance last year despite suffering a virus and a million punctures. He did contest at Gent the other week which is promising. At 100/1 each way I just cannot say no I'm afraid. Buttons on Maarten Tjallingii at 500/1 I thought would be lower after his good showing from the break in Milan Sanremo. He, like Thor, will favour the flat profile over the cobbles as opposed to last weekend, and should the favourites mark each other out or a break of 2nd tier riders is allowed up the road he may slip the net. He will doubtless be Sep V's workhorse but you never know... |
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Try that again - sorry for the repetition
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Paris-Roubaix http://www.letour.com/paris-roubaix/2014/us/race.html
The Cobbles of The Hell of the NorthParis-Roubaix is the third of the cobbled classics (along with the Tour of Flanders and Gent-Wevelgem). It is also one of cycling’s 5 “Monuments” along with Milan-San Remo, Tour of Flanders, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Italy’s Giro Lombardia. ProfileThe profile is almost pan-flat but not for nothing, the race is also known as “The Hell of the North”due to the length of the race, huge amounts of cobbles and frequent bad weather. Typical conditions during Paris-RoubaixA list of previous winners includes Eddy Merckx, Roger De Vlaeminck, Francesco Moser, Sean Kelly, Tom Boonen and Fabian Cancellara. 2014 RouteParis Roubaix:Route Although called Paris-Roubaix, the race actually starts in Compiègne, 50 miles North East of Paris. The race is 260km long this year, and although there are no cobbles in the first 100km, in the last 150km there are 50km of cobbled sections for the riders to negotiate. Paris-Roubaix PavéTwo of the most famous sections of cobbles are Mons-en-Pevele and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre. Both are long sections of cobbles, come within the last 50km and can be treacherous in bad conditions so both have helped shape the race in years gone by. When the riders arrive in Roubaix they head for the famous outdoor velodrome and the finish line follows 750m on the smooth concrete. The Roubaix VelodromePast Races 2013 CANCELLARA Fabian VANMARCKE Sep TERPSTRA Niki 3 wins for Cancellara2012 BOONEN Tom TURGOT Sébastien BALLAN Alessandro Boonen Victorious2011 VANSUMMEREN Johan CANCELLARA Fabian TJALLINGII Maarten 2010 CANCELLARA FabianVic HUSHOVD Thor FLECHA Juan Antonio I am Spartacus 2009 BOONEN Tom POZZATO Filippo HUSHOVD Thor 2008 BOONEN Tom CANCELLARA Fabian BALLAN Alessandro 2007 O'GRADY Stuart FLECHA Juan Antonio WESEMANN Steffen 2006 CANCELLARA Fabian BOONEN Tom BALLAN Alessandro 2005 BOONEN Tom HINCAPIE George FLECHA Juan Antonio 2004 BACKSTEDT Magnus HOFFMAN Tristan HAMMOND Roger 2014 One-Day Classics Winners so far Milan San-Remo – Alexander Kristoff E3 Harelbeke – Peter Sagan Gent Wevelgem – John Degenkolb Tour of Flanders – Fabian Cancellara Paris Roubaix:Contenders Fabian “Spartacus” Cancellara (Trek BP 2/1) Winner of Paris-Roubaix in 2006, 2010 and 2013, Cancellara showed his strength last Sunday when despite being favourite, and having to deal with the massed ranks of Quickstep rivals, managed to win from a break of four. Rightly the favourite, has no weaknesses. He is the strongest, the most tactically astute and can win solo or from a group. The Swiss rider known as Spartacus is the one everyone else has to beat. Fabian CancellaraTom "Tornado Tom" Boonen (Quickstep BP 15/2) is a hugely decorated Belgian classics specialist who has won this race four times (05, 08, 09 & 2012), as well as Gent-Wevelgem three times and Tour of Flanders three times. Looked strong in the first half of Tour of Flanders last week but a broken thumb and some personal issues mean his prep has not been ideal and he faded. Can contend if he’s recovered. Tom BoonenSep Vanmarcke (Belkin BP 7/1) was second last year to Cancellara. The Belgian has been in excellent form this year too, with a 3rd place in Tour of Flanders last week and in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Vanmarcke has also picked up 4th in Omloop and Gent-Wevelgem this year, and 5th in E3 Harelbeke. I suspect that Vanmarcke is the rider Cancellara most fears. Peter “The Terminator” Sagan (Canondale BP 12/1) an outstanding up-and-coming talent, who can sprint, climb and has stamina to burn. A top all-rounder who has focussed on classics and whose palmares at this stage of his career is frightening. Twice winner of the green jersey at the Tour de France, with 4 stage wins at the Tour, 3 stages wins at the Vuelta to his name, The Slovak superstar has also won E3 Harelbeke this year and Gent-Wevelgem last year. He hasn’t yet won a “monument” though, and possibly found the pressure too much when beaten favourite at Milan-San Remo the last two years. Was well fancied for Tour of Flanders last week but couldn’t cope with the attacks from others and finished a disappointing 16th. Will be tough to beat in a sprint if the others haven’t dropped him by the velodrome though. Peter SaganZdenek Stybar (Quickstep BP 15/1) Better known until recently for his cyclo-cross exploits, the Czech rider is making a real name for himself on the road. A collision with a spectator when he was in the front three late on curtailed his chances in Paris-Roubaix last year, and he eventually finished 6th. Stybar has shown himself in decent form this year, with a 7th in Milan-San Remo, and top 20 finishes in Gent-Wevelgem, Tour of Flanders and E3 Harebeke. Zdenek StybarAlexander Kristoff (Katusha 18/1) A 50/1 winner of Milan San-Remo, Kristoff has shown he has the legs for a sprint at the end of a day of hell in the saddle. As short as 8/1 in places, he’ll be a danger to all if he’s still there at the end, and his 5th place at Tour of Flanders shows he’s in top form and can handle himself on the cobbles. Was 9th last year, but the Norweigen must be in fine heart for a better show this time round. Alexander KristoffGreg Van Avarmaet (BMC 20/1) An excellent ride in the Tour of Flanders to come 2nd to Cancellara, Van Avarmaet definitely has the legs for Paris-Roubaix, and the Belgian was 4th in 2013. He has several other good classics results to his name, with a 2nd in Omloop this year and 3rd in Gent-Wevelgem (2013) but the worry would be whether he is always the bridesmaid and never the bride. Greg Van AvarmaetNiki Terpstra (Quickstep 25/1) has been getting closer in Paris-Roubaix and was 17th (2009), 5th (2012) and 3rd in 2013. He is also in superb form, winning The Tour of Qatar and Dwars Van Vlaanderen, as well as 5th at Omloop, 2nd at E3 Harelbeke and 6th in Tour of Flanders. Niki TerpstraTaylor Phinney (BMC 28/1) is a promising young American rider, who looks ideally suited for the test that Paris-Roubaix will provide. He has had some interruptions to his prep this spring but looked very strong at Flanders. His staying on 6th at Milan-San Remo in 2013 shows he has stamina in spades, and although he doesn’t have the experience of some of these, he could surprise a few. Taylor PhinneyDevolderOther contenders are Degenkolb (25/1) who won Gent-Wevelgem this year, Stijn Devolder (50/1) is 34 now but has cobbled classics wins to his name and is another card for Quickstep to play. Sky have got three possible cards in Geraint Thomas (40/1), Eddy Boassen Hagen (50/1) and Bradley Wiggins (40/1). Wiggins is Sky’s team leader, and has this as his main aim for the first part of the season, but he hasn’t shown anything that makes you think he can compete here. Van Summeren (Orica 300/1) won in 2011, and along with Thor Hushovd (BMC 100/1) has 4 top 10 finishes to his name, but on current form it’s difficult to imagine him rescaling those heights. Geraint ThomasAll prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/one-day-classics/paris-roubaix/winner Cancellara is rightly favourite for me, but is very short. I'd want at least 9/1 as SP says to consider Boonen, so two bets for me at the prices are: Kristoff 18/1 Terpstra 25/1 good luck everyone, should be a superb spectacle |
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That looks better
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Don't worry about it MC, it looks okay, nice and colourful. Good job.
 Some additional details: KRISTOFF -- In the Tour of Flanders he had no business in remaining with the classics specialists after the climbs, let alone leading the group up them. However, this is what he did, and more. But what really impressed me about his performance in finishing 5th when behind the four leaders, if not closing on them, was his tough-as-nails approach to attack the second group. He was stuck in no-man’s land all by himself and had closed to within 7secs of the four leaders, before he cracked prior to Terpstra’s appearance when the Dutchman came up to join him. Once with Terpstra he recovered and both combined well to keep the lead group in their sights. Toward the line he had his second wind to gap Terpstra, impressively. Kristoff is proving he recovers well, is perfectly suited to this parcours, and given a large group of riders involved has the advantage of a sprinters kick to go clear. He also has the cunning of Paolini, who will provide excellent support since Kristoff is the stronger rider between the two. In terms of power and strength it would appear Kristoff has it in abundance, and it is no surprise to see the books slash his price prior to Flanders of 66/1 into as low as 8/1 with at least two, now. One of the main contenders. Looks very strong. Value has gone though, I would suggest. PHINNEY -- At only 23 years-of-age, the American Taylor Phinney made an excellent debut in the Tour of Flanders on Sunday, finishing 40th and some 4+mins down. BMC had a clear plan with GVA and in retrospect it was no surprise to see Phinney out the front early, gaining experience on a parcours which was never going to suit his style-of-riding, whilst waiting on his team-mate for the purposes of support once the intended move was to eventuate. Which it did. Unfortunately Phinney was done by the time Boonen at the head of the peloton reached the top of the Koppenberg. All principles were in attendence in the lead group which formed after the Koppenberg, and which contained two BMC riders thanks to Phinney’s early break. I thought that this group sat up after the Koppenberg, however they were just refuelling and the pace just came off a little. Phinney won his first race over 200kms in only his third year as a pro, in the tough 231km fourth stage of the Tour of Poland, last year. This year, his best classics performance was in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, with a 7th place finish in the +90secs group which featured Vandenburgh, Devenyns and Roelandts to name three. He had sickness for Milan-San Remo and E3 Harelbeke, a DNF for KBK, and he finished 22nd out of the 28 riders in the bunch sprint in Gent-Wevelgem. Phinney is clearly a tactically aware rider who understands the importance of positioning in certain races, but it’s true he appears to lack overall experience. Nevertheless, he has plenty of experience particularly in Paris-Roubaix since he has won the under-23 version of the event over 179kms, before a 15th in 2012 and a 23rd last year; and prior to Flanders he has said; “Roubaix is my biggest goal for this whole classics season. Flanders might be a race for me in the future, but Roubaix is what I’ve been working for all winter coming into this spring season.” It’s difficult to see how he might win from the big names, and if he is in a group with them than it’s unlikely he will win, but should BMC give him the freedom to find a good move – which is likely, especially since it can be done in conjunction with GVA -- or should he find the back of a group where he does no work, then he is definitely some chance. Having said all that, 80/1 should be the lowest for the true believers to settle on, and 100/1 is his true price to offer some value, since he just doesn’t yet have the raw power needed to clip along with a hard group or keep a gap in-check if going solo. Rough place chance at best. Interesting prospects, but wait to see at this stage. DEGENKOLB -- The last outright sprinter to win was the Australian hard-man and now disgraced drug-cheat, Stuart O'Grady, in 2007 -- as shown in MC's preview. 28th here last year. Best result was in 2011, when he finished 19th. Having a good season, and should he be in the lead group than his sprinting ability becomes a major advantage. I liked how he found the strength to get back on to the main group after the climbs in the Ronde. One of the main chances. Warrants respect. SAGAN -- followed his disappointing 10th place finish in Milan-San Remo, with a good win in his next race in E3 Harelbeke, when he outplayed strength-in-numbers OPQ riders of Terpstra and Vandenbergh. Then he confirmed he was getting back to some form when 3rd in Gent-Wevelgem, followed by 1st on day one of De Panne. Now, some have argued, namely Clay, that he failed tactically in the Ronde, and that's perhaps what many would think, but looking at the replay it is clear that he was on the wheel of Cancellara when halfway up the top section of the Oude Kwaremont; and when Spartacus layed it down Sagan just couldn’t respond, had absolutely nothing, suggesting he just didn’t have the legs this time. Indeed, this is confirmed later on in the race, when more than once he looks to be struggling with the main group. I think it is a bonus that he has begun to drift with the books, since his inconsistency so far this season suggests he should be right back in this. Also, why I too admire his versatility like bb66, that versatility has a much better opportunity to be put on display in this race since he isn’t so stretched by his need to adapt so wildly. Excellent prospects. Treat warily. Most of these mentioned are going around in Scheldeprijs tomorrow, so anticipate some market fluctuations after the race. Obviously pros and cons involved with getting involved in Sunday's action prior to tomorrow's race. I've got one more I'm considering closely, but he is not riding tomorrow and need more information on any injury concerns. Good luck to all, SP |
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The other thing about Phinney that makes people (me) think he's a Paris-Roubaix winner in the making is his performance in Milan-San Remo 2013. In the worst riding conditions imaginable he got left on the climb of the Poggio by the six that fought the win out amongst themselves but on the descent and over the last few miles he almost bridged solo across to that leading group. On the replays of that race you can see him closing as the group sort themselves out ahead of the sprint won by Ciolek. Indeed, he was so close by the line he actually got given the same time as the group. He's not got a bad kick, so if it comes down to a small group, and as long as there isn't a Sagan or Kristoff on the premises he'd be a short price to get over the line in front. If he does get away solo he could also time trial his way to victory. He's got a lot going for him, but he hasn't been there and done that like most of these. I'd love a bigger price. If someone went 40s I'd play.
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I totally agree that he's a likely future winner of this race, but I'm not entirely sure that future is this Sunday. I missed that observation on his Milan-San Remo performance of last year which you raise, and you're absolutely right MC, it was a clear example of hard riding, and no there will be no Poggio here, nor any wet weather, but if Spartacus drops the hammer than do you believe he can go with him, or will he be fighting to hang on?
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We don't know but I'd certainly take a chance that he could given a bigger price
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Check out 2hr.45 on here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZObfVlcWvM incredibly strong ride to almost bridge
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both Phinney and Impey had excellent rides last sunday
very disappointed with the prices on offer, not tempted by any price except the value on Maarten Tjallingii at 500/1 with PP at 1/4 1,2,3 maybe a race to sit back and enjoy |
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Will put my hard earned down in play as there's no real value on the favourites.
I'm looking to go in with 3 'outsiders'. Stybar, Paolini and an other which isn't priced up that I'm hoping to get in the 1'000's. |
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Got it -- thanx MC. He really does come from nowhere, and with a bit more road he is back on terms with them and anything can happen. After I found the information about his under-23 Paris-Roubaix win, I thought he was one to watch on Sunday, but your grab makes a convincing case of his quality for Sunday, so thanks for sharing it. It's a bloody tough race in Italy, and in those conditions to drop out of the clouds late like that is genuinely impressive. I think even Sagan gets a fright when he looks back. Have taken some 30s for loose change on here to cover him, but I think E/W terms are still more appropriate.
Tjallingi Really crappy prices still, I agree, I thought maybe there'll be some housework by the books, but it doesn't look like it. It really does illustrate the importance of betting futures when with the books that don't have 'All in' policies. No risk on losing stake on a non-runner, but getting the good deal on a rider holding form or riding into form.*** Peter Sagan 12/1 E/W ***** Alex Kristoff 16/1 E/W * Taylor Phinney 33/1 (BF winner market) * John Degenkolb 25/1 WIN ONLY ** Stijn Devolder 50/1 E/W Devolder has been passed fit by the doctor on his elbow, after crashing twice on it in Flanders. It'll hurt him, for sure, but he is race fit and if he can get just a tiny bit of luck than I think he'll either take the opportunities on offer or create his own. He's the only one at a reasonable price too, so I would be quite happy to sting the books with him. Good luck to all, SP |
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It doesn't seem like anyone has covered themselves in glory at Scheldeprijs and forced themselves into contention. More I think about Sagan the more I think he could be a player on Sunday - pressure is off him to some extent this time round.
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It's reasonable to think so MC, after his Italian adventure failure he came back with convincing riding, by winning the very next ride in E3, and then 3rd in Gent Wevelgem. Then he couldn't even give the stage away to team-mate on first day in De Panne, and on clearly an off day he still finished reasonably by only 90secs away in Flanders. So if Flanders was a failure, he has shown he comes back strong, and whilst still short at 12/1, it's nevertheless his best price all season in the classics from what I can recall? The more I look at him the more I believe that the books have overlooked him, I mean it's not like he crashed and is carrying an injury.
What is his fault that he goes from single-figure, second favourite, in these other races, to suddenly to 12/1? SP |
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A cobblestone as a trophy -- love it!
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Are we talking each other into a Sagan back here?
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mons-en-pévèle (10)
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carrefour de l'arbre
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I've already backed him, MC.
All my bets are up.  Just wanting you to oppose me if getting some more on is not the correct game-plan. Arghh... but those pave are surely built for the Belgians? Looks brutal. How can one really back the winner with any confidence when so many things can happen in this race, particularly?...And yet the same names come up time and again in finishes and podiums.  Sagan should be this new next name?  Seriously though, loving the colour -- and now texture -- you're adding to this thread, thanks for your efforts. SP. |
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It would be nice to think that the way he have corresponded and the way you have added this colour and texture, points to us uncovering the actual winner on Sunday, but I'm not so sure. I want to be, though. So let's keep going and see what we find?
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...Okay, I have found that 12/1 into 16/1 Sagan on E/W terms cannot be ignored. That's better than 3/1 the place 1,2,3 whilst Spartacus is worse than that for the win.
In a recent interview ahead of #pr he has confirmed my understanding that he just didn't have the legs in Flanders. "Immediately after the race, Cannondale manager Roberto Amadio suggested that Sagan had done too much work when he was isolated in that 13-man group alongside four QuickStep riders. While Sagan agreed that may well have been the case, he added that in any case, he simply didn't have the legs to win the race." Okay, so to explain the drift in the price, his morale must be down? '"No, I'm not down. Races are like that and I can't win everything. Sometimes things go well, sometimes things don't, and this year that’s how it was," he said.' Can Sagan go with Spartacus in an attack on a largely flat course? Yes. Can Sagan find himself alongside Spartacus in a sprint to the finish for first place? Yes. Can Sagan out-sprint Spartacus in a sprint? Yes. Sagan is getting into special value price, here. Now clearly my main bet for the race. Good luck to all, SP |
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Got a few beans on at 23, had a bit more on at 15-17. Sagan, Phinney, Terpstra & Kristoff would all be good results for me, rest of field red.
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So Sagan didn't have the legs in the Tour of Flanders, what about Milan San Remo? Hot fav, never ever looked like the winner at any stage? Outsprint Spartacus? Hmmmmmm, not in San Remo he didn't. Didn't even get involved in the sprint even though he was in the group. The excuses are building and building with Sagan......my patience is running thin
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Clay -- did you not contend that Sagan failed tactically in the Ronde? Look at the replay and you will see that Sagan is on the wheel of Cancellara when halfway up the top section of the Oude Kwaremont. Spartacus senses the selection and moves up, whilst Sagan cannot respond, looking completely flat.
In Italy, it is a different story, he clearly fails tactically when he attacks on the Cipressa, an epic fail. But let us consider that it was the first classic of the season, a big one, a monument, and he simply got over-excited in tough conditions. There is a pattern so far this year, that he follows up failures with successes. If he can keep his head on a flat course and with his bike-handling skills, he is the clear value rider in the race. Better price to finish 1, 2, 3 than Spartacus to finish 1. He is not the hot favourite here, some of the pressure has come off and he knows that if he parks himself on Cancellara's wheel, he'll be able to respond should he have the legs and some luck. Have some more patience mate, the books have got this one wrong I feel, in terms of the markets, and he should be in this for a long way. SP |
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SP - his team manager thinks Sagan fcuked up the tactics in the Ronde, whereas Sagan said he didn't have the legs. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.
two Milan San remos he has been red hot fav and two Milan San remos he has failed. In the Ronde last year, when he finished, 2nd he got his tactics all wrong. I know he is still relatively young but he must start delivering. While I'm in no rush to back Spartacus at the prices, 11 podium finishes in a row in Classics is some achievement. While there are doubts (but compensated in the price imho) Boonen is the only rider in the field who can go into beast mode and blow Spartacus away. he has done it before. I'll take the chance the great man can do it again |
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Sagan didn't attack on the Cipressa, not sure where that's coming from. Nibali did attack and got a good gap
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I think Sagan - from memory - attack at the beginning of the climb and Nibali attacked halfway up
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It didn't look like much of an attack, but Sagan was ahead of the peloton by a few metres on the Cipressa, burning himself and his chances on a nothing move. There was a team-mate with him, perhaps De Marchi? I remember it well because I was realizing he was ending his chances. But yes, Nibali had cleared out by then.
Clay -- precisely because Spartacus has such a strike-rate and he is riding so well in the classics, it is likely that Sagan will again find his wheel. As will other riders. I like the term you use 'beast mode' but Sagan has it also. If he has the legs, he has the option of this beast mode, just look at his scintillating move in Strade Bianchi -- beast mode at its best! Only here he will have to keep that tempo for much longer, and with no real climbs he is more likely to do that, I would suggest. Boonen is great value, too. Looks like we got ourselves a forum thread match bet.  SP. |
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Sagan just followed his teammate who made a fairly strong pace - a pretty obvious tactical ploy to try to burn off the pure sprinters. How bad would he have to been that day to attack and not even get past his teammate or for the phantom attack to have "burned his chances" ?
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I believe you'll find that Sagan did his equal share of driving the pace, and whilst it might have been an obvious tactical move or a not so obvious attack, Sagan had no business being involved in doing any of the heavy-lifting on the Cipressa. No one ever does anything on the Cipressa from what I can remember, because it is so far out from the finish. It is just as easy to burn sprinters on the Poggio, so to do anything on the Cipressa only invites fatigue for the finale, which it clearly did. It was tactical ineptitude likely born from excitement and a historical basis of poor judgement. With Paris-Roubaix being the last big classic, I'm willing to think that he has learnt his lessons of the season and a much more even approach will be observed this time around.
What are yr bets GB? Cheers, SP |
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Nope, Sagan wasn't driving the pace either. Di Marchi was on the front all the way until he popped near the top and Trek took over.
Boonen should be a much shorter price imo. It's not like he has a huge amount of ground to make up from last week, P-R always suited him better than RVV and never more so than this year after an interrupted prep |