2014 Tour of Flanders

The first week of the Flanders classics again showed that riders who are attentive at the head of the peloton, not only stay out of trouble for the most part, but obviously have the best chance to react to attacks by keeping pace on the climbs. And so we are again reminded of what it means to be considered as a tough-as-nails classics specialist rider. By being at the head of the peloton and staying with the high pace of the race, the chances of a rider calculating the right move to follow increases, but on the other hand it also fatigues the rider considerably.

The reason why only five names, since 2010, have featured on the winner’s list in E3 Harelbeke, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix, is because Boonen, Spartacus, and now Sagan -- have the ability to punish themselves at the head of the peloton for most of the early and middle parts of the race, and then still have the legs to launch attacks, and additionally have a kick left in the finale. On that list, the two Belgians of Nuyens and Vansummeren on the other hand, have an intimate knowledge of the region, but especially an intimate knowledge of the cobbles and climbs which come up in these races, since they are from the region and have grown-up with these races and trained on these cobbles.

My first two selections are based on this latter understanding -- that a rider from the region is well-suited to the task of winning here.

At 28 years-of-age Jurgen Roelandts is a name which has been heard for many years in pro cycling at this level, but let us consider that he is still quite young by the modern standards of #shutuplegs, and he has given some indication that his best results are still to come. Indeed his best result at this prestigious race came only last year when he claimed the third step after a battle of attrition which began with a high pace from the outset, and concluded when as the sole leader he was caught by Sagan and Spartacus on the Paterburg. Roelandts has been riding very well from the start of the season openers and continued this form with a good showing in Milan-San Remo for 23rd, after using Tirreno-Adriatico as a training ride. He continued to only improve with a 12th in E3 when he finished with the big names at just over a minute behind, and then a last start 10th in Gent-Wevelgem, where it appears like he just didn’t find the right wheel in the stretch; although he was always going to be disadvantaged somewhat by a bunch sprint. Originating from this region, he knows these cobbles like the back of his hand, can hold his position in the peloton, and is in peak form. Not to be discounted lightly. Consider closely.

Stijn Devolder is also from this region and has won this race back-to-back in 2008-2009, and whilst his results on paper in his last three starts 61/20/51 appear ordinary, his riding can only be described as animated exceptionalism. In Gent-Wevelgem, in the Champion of Belgium jersey he attacked late and dragged two other riders clear with him, up until about about 2kms to-go when they were caught. In Dwars door Vlaanderen when Terpstra won, it was Devolder who organised the chase and took long pulls on the front of a four man group who closed to within 15secs of Terpstra, but were ultimately swept-up, and again within only a couple of kms to-go. In E3 Harelbeke most of the work being done to bridge to the four breakaway riders by the eighteen rider group including Cancellara, Boonen, Degenkolb, EBH, and Vanmarcke was done by Devolder, and this came after he provided major support for Cancellara before that. He was riding for Spartacus but he was arguably riding better than him, certainly equally as well. Whilst he is 34 years-of-age, it is worth considering that he is only one year older than his team-mate, and while yes, he is a devoted team-mate and will again turn himself inside-out for Cancellara given the opportunity -- he is giving every indication that his form is good-enough to work for Cancellara and still have something left for himself to win. Big danger. Warrants respect.

If this is the season for which Niki Terpstra will be regarded as having raised his level of racing to the highest of standards, then he needs to claim a monument, and I simply cannot exclude him here, nor for Paris-Roubaix, as his form and speed, especially with what he showed in his win in Dwars door Vlaanderen, suggests that there’s more wins to come this season. Treat warily. One of the main contenders.

Sep Vanmarcke is ultra-consistent with four-from-four top-5 results, including the third step in KBK when his team-mate Hofland failed to beat Boonen, and when he beat his fellow countryman Stijn Vandenbergh. He is very positive about the efforts of his team, and I like that Lars Boom is on the start list with him as he should offer some good late support. Worthy of close consideration.

Peter Sagan needs no introduction and is clearly the deserving favourite. He will be at the head of the peloton for a long way, and I don’t believe that he’ll be easily disposed on the climbs in the way Spartacus did last year on the Paterburg. At 7/2 he becomes a WIN ONLY proposition and everything suggests he’ll offer value on the basis of a saver. Improving. Likely winner.

Terpstra and Sagan are on the start-list for Three Days of De Panne, so worth noting their performances there. Geraint Thomas is positive about his chances but he has hit the ground a few times too many for my liking. Boonen is nursing an injury and this level may be too high for him to cope. Spartacus is far too short, but it would obviously be no surprise to see him open up the engine when it counts.

Stijn Devolder 50/1 E/W (betway)
Niki Terpstra 17/1 E/W (bet365)
Peter Sagan 7/2 WIN ONLY (bet365)
Jurgen Roelandts 50/1 E/W (paddypower)
Sep Vanmarcke 14/1 E/W (888sport)

Good luck to all,
SP