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29 Mar 14
06:52
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11 Jul 11
2014 Gent-Wevelgem
Thought I'd put this one up earlier to invite discussion.
This race is often referred to as the sprinters’ classic, but the last outright sprinter to win was Oscar Freire in 2008. Nevertheless, with little in the way for sprinters in the last few one-day races, I believe the sprinters’ teams will want to combine together should the inevitable break form and go out ahead. Last year the sprinters had the shortened race within reach given favourable wind conditions, but the cold was bitter and took some of the energy out of their chase when Lotto and Blanco finally began co-operating together. Having said that I have chosen to look for big value in riders for both a bunch sprint or breakaway scenario.
Michael Morkov came into frame when he won the 6th stage of last year’s Vuelta, beating a host of big names in Spartacus, Flecha, Gilbert, Tony Martin, and Farrar. He started this year in fine fettle when finishing second to Boonen in the 2nd stage of the Tour of Qatar. There was also a good finish when 5th just behind Kristoff in stage 6 of the Tour of Oman when the Gorilla won. His results in his last two starts, which have been one day classics, have been quite consistent, with a 23rd in E3 Harelbeke last start and a 16th in Dwars door Vlaanderen in the race before that. He had a DNF in Milan-San Remo but I have found no evidence of a crash or injury, so it is likely he abandoned through fatigue from wet conditions. In E3 he caught the eye a few times as he was quite attentive at the head of the peloton, but not a known breakaway rider he perhaps decided to stay with the peloton. He is one who can attack late and make it stick, or stalk in and around the trains for a jump toward the line. At 250/1 he is loaded with value.
The last Italian winner of this race was also an outright sprinter – Mario Cipollini, who won for a third time in 2002 after successfully defending his ’92 title when he went on to win in ’93. The 25 year-old Italian sprinter Matteo Pelucchi had his breakthrough win on home soil in the 2nd stage of Tirreno-Adriatico, when coming off the Gorilla’s wheel in clean and cold fashion to win impressively. Should this come down to a bunch sprint he is very good value at 200/1 on the basis of his potential.
The American Tyler Farrar is hunting around for the right selection and having found 2nd place in Dawrs door Vlaanderen and 8th in E3 last start, it would not be a surprise to see him win this race.His weight looks good and he should be able to rely on good support from his team. He is quite short so take on trust.
Tyler Farrar 29/1 888 sport
Matteo Pelucchi 2001/ sportsbet
Michael Morkov 250/1 sportsbet
Good luck to all,
SP
Thought I'd put this one up earlier to invite discussion.
This race is often referred to as the sprinters’ classic, but the last outright sprinter to win was Oscar Freire in 2008. Nevertheless, with little in the way for sprinters in the last few one-day races, I believe the sprinters’ teams will want to combine together should the inevitable break form and go out ahead. Last year the sprinters had the shortened race within reach given favourable wind conditions, but the cold was bitter and took some of the energy out of their chase when Lotto and Blanco finally began co-operating together. Having said that I have chosen to look for big value in riders for both a bunch sprint or breakaway scenario.
Michael Morkov came into frame when he won the 6th stage of last year’s Vuelta, beating a host of big names in Spartacus, Flecha, Gilbert, Tony Martin, and Farrar. He started this year in fine fettle when finishing second to Boonen in the 2nd stage of the Tour of Qatar. There was also a good finish when 5th just behind Kristoff in stage 6 of the Tour of Oman when the Gorilla won. His results in his last two starts, which have been one day classics, have been quite consistent, with a 23rd in E3 Harelbeke last start and a 16th in Dwars door Vlaanderen in the race before that. He had a DNF in Milan-San Remo but I have found no evidence of a crash or injury, so it is likely he abandoned through fatigue from wet conditions. In E3 he caught the eye a few times as he was quite attentive at the head of the peloton, but not a known breakaway rider he perhaps decided to stay with the peloton. He is one who can attack late and make it stick, or stalk in and around the trains for a jump toward the line. At 250/1 he is loaded with value.
The last Italian winner of this race was also an outright sprinter – Mario Cipollini, who won for a third time in 2002 after successfully defending his ’92 title when he went on to win in ’93. The 25 year-old Italian sprinter Matteo Pelucchi had his breakthrough win on home soil in the 2nd stage of Tirreno-Adriatico, when coming off the Gorilla’s wheel in clean and cold fashion to win impressively. Should this come down to a bunch sprint he is very good value at 200/1 on the basis of his potential.
The American Tyler Farrar is hunting around for the right selection and having found 2nd place in Dawrs door Vlaanderen and 8th in E3 last start, it would not be a surprise to see him win this race.His weight looks good and he should be able to rely on good support from his team. He is quite short so take on trust.
Tyler Farrar 29/1 888 sport
Matteo Pelucchi 2001/ sportsbet
Michael Morkov 250/1 sportsbet
Good luck to all,
SP
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