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24 Mar 14
16:42
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11 Jul 11
2014 Tour of Catalunya
I’m a tad bit late into this one, since I’ve already been preparing for the GTs and much of my time is devoted to that. However, from the preliminary research I began last week, Quintana (4th +45 secs) and Betancur (46th + 18mins) last year, pretty much lost the race in the opening stage. The podium came out of the 13-man group which finished 28secs ahead of the rest of the riders on the opening stage.
It looks to me like plain inexperience by the young riders, since on the final ascent of the cat 3 climb, some 18kms from the finish, Wiggins had his Sky men toiling on the front, and so obviously out of position they both stretched out the back somewhere, until on the technical descent the gap increased as the peloton failed to make contact and they got caught out.
This year, it might be prudent to excuse such an error by both riders, however I not willing to do it with Betancur since his recent win in Paris-Nice on GC -- after getting two good wins and a podium place -- suggested to me he still requires too much luck to go his way, and there’s a question mark over his climbing skills in comparison to Froome, and the rediscovered form of Bertie. Certainly the Paris-Nice course was quite easy in terms of there not being any significant climbing. Whilst here, stages 3 and 4 are both mountain-top finishes and at significant altitudes.
On paper, this race around Catalunya is very-much a head-to-head match race between the two early season combatants of Froome and Contador, so even if you are not planning to have a bet here, it may pay to keep your eyes on the Tour de France winner antepost market, since some of what we might see here will have a direct influence there. Consider that getting involved so early isn’t necessarily the wisest option on a market with an ‘all-in’ policy, but it is wise to observe the market fluctuations.
Froome pulled out of the Tirreno-Adriatico because of a lower back complaint which the team suggested was not serious, but simply good policy for looking at the year’s big picture. I tend to believe them, and I have formed a small theory that in the off-season, whilst Froome was training in South Africa and working on the position of his head whilst riding, specifically climbing, in that he worked on keeping his head raised and keeping his eyes looking forward up the road more, the rest of his body had to adjust to this new position of the head. It’s not a big thing, but for such an elite rider such a slight adjustment to his position on the bike might have caused a change in the shape of his back and what he felt in his lower back was just this new position becoming familiar. A kink if you will. It cannot be serious, since the team wouldn’t rush him back in and risk further damage. Indeed, that’s what they didn’t want to risk by withdrawing him from Tirreno-Adriatico and bringing in Porte, who was set for defending his Paris-Nice title. In fact the team are being very gentle with Froome this season, since he has only ridden one race – the Tour of Oman. Six days, and less than 1000kms. In such early form indication, he nevertheless won the Green Mountain stage over there in the Middle East, from TJ, Uran and Purito, and set-up overall victory quite clinically, actually.
I therefore believe that whilst we have seen an exciting streak of form from Bertie in the recent Tirreno-Adriatico, and I am not suggesting to back against him, Froome should have his measure on account of the evidence in that 5th stage in Oman. There was enough there to suggest he can go with the best of what Contador has to offer, although the strength in team depth is the ultimate factor to take into account in determining the likely winner if the winner is to be found between these two?
For a start, Sky look better on paper than Tinkoff-Saxo, to me. I think Nieve was a good signing for Sky since it’ll lift some pressure off Porte, and allow him to think more in his race. He sometimes gives the impression of being a beast-of-burden, hunched-over and being flogged from behind by the directions in his ear from the director's car -- not thinking but just piling-on the suffering. Will be interesting to see how the young Joshua Edmondson performs -- haven't seen much of him, although he did have a fair amount of racing in his 2013 season. But ultimately it’s about Porte and Nieve being Froome’s right and left hands, respectively. On the other hand
TS are looking at the Classics for Kreuziger, but I think he rode very well in Italy to get on the podium full-stop, but rode especially well for Contador, and his absence may be a major loss for Contador and therefore may effect his place in the peloton. Moreover, no one really included to measure what Kreuziger did for Contador.
In conclusion, I think Froome should win from Bertie, but it’ll be decided by how good Bertie is when being dictated to by the Sky enforcers. If he looks like it’s not going to be a problem for him and he can still dance on the pedals in the manner Clay and others enjoy so much, then his price for the Tour will shorten even more, since he might win here. But he is far too short against a quality campaigner in Froome, and on that basis I am willing to take Contador on by backing Froome instead, even though Contador’s ride in Italy was seriously good and deserving of being installed favourite here.
Managed to get some Quintana value even though he let me down in Italy. Perhaps too much aggression from Bertie to cope with at such an early part of the season. He got a good result in Argentina, and I am willing to have him on side, here. Basso may be worth watching closely to see if he warms to the occasion.
Froome 3/1
Quintana 6/1
Good luck all,
SP
I’m a tad bit late into this one, since I’ve already been preparing for the GTs and much of my time is devoted to that. However, from the preliminary research I began last week, Quintana (4th +45 secs) and Betancur (46th + 18mins) last year, pretty much lost the race in the opening stage. The podium came out of the 13-man group which finished 28secs ahead of the rest of the riders on the opening stage.
It looks to me like plain inexperience by the young riders, since on the final ascent of the cat 3 climb, some 18kms from the finish, Wiggins had his Sky men toiling on the front, and so obviously out of position they both stretched out the back somewhere, until on the technical descent the gap increased as the peloton failed to make contact and they got caught out.
This year, it might be prudent to excuse such an error by both riders, however I not willing to do it with Betancur since his recent win in Paris-Nice on GC -- after getting two good wins and a podium place -- suggested to me he still requires too much luck to go his way, and there’s a question mark over his climbing skills in comparison to Froome, and the rediscovered form of Bertie. Certainly the Paris-Nice course was quite easy in terms of there not being any significant climbing. Whilst here, stages 3 and 4 are both mountain-top finishes and at significant altitudes.
On paper, this race around Catalunya is very-much a head-to-head match race between the two early season combatants of Froome and Contador, so even if you are not planning to have a bet here, it may pay to keep your eyes on the Tour de France winner antepost market, since some of what we might see here will have a direct influence there. Consider that getting involved so early isn’t necessarily the wisest option on a market with an ‘all-in’ policy, but it is wise to observe the market fluctuations.
Froome pulled out of the Tirreno-Adriatico because of a lower back complaint which the team suggested was not serious, but simply good policy for looking at the year’s big picture. I tend to believe them, and I have formed a small theory that in the off-season, whilst Froome was training in South Africa and working on the position of his head whilst riding, specifically climbing, in that he worked on keeping his head raised and keeping his eyes looking forward up the road more, the rest of his body had to adjust to this new position of the head. It’s not a big thing, but for such an elite rider such a slight adjustment to his position on the bike might have caused a change in the shape of his back and what he felt in his lower back was just this new position becoming familiar. A kink if you will. It cannot be serious, since the team wouldn’t rush him back in and risk further damage. Indeed, that’s what they didn’t want to risk by withdrawing him from Tirreno-Adriatico and bringing in Porte, who was set for defending his Paris-Nice title. In fact the team are being very gentle with Froome this season, since he has only ridden one race – the Tour of Oman. Six days, and less than 1000kms. In such early form indication, he nevertheless won the Green Mountain stage over there in the Middle East, from TJ, Uran and Purito, and set-up overall victory quite clinically, actually.
I therefore believe that whilst we have seen an exciting streak of form from Bertie in the recent Tirreno-Adriatico, and I am not suggesting to back against him, Froome should have his measure on account of the evidence in that 5th stage in Oman. There was enough there to suggest he can go with the best of what Contador has to offer, although the strength in team depth is the ultimate factor to take into account in determining the likely winner if the winner is to be found between these two?
For a start, Sky look better on paper than Tinkoff-Saxo, to me. I think Nieve was a good signing for Sky since it’ll lift some pressure off Porte, and allow him to think more in his race. He sometimes gives the impression of being a beast-of-burden, hunched-over and being flogged from behind by the directions in his ear from the director's car -- not thinking but just piling-on the suffering. Will be interesting to see how the young Joshua Edmondson performs -- haven't seen much of him, although he did have a fair amount of racing in his 2013 season. But ultimately it’s about Porte and Nieve being Froome’s right and left hands, respectively. On the other hand
TS are looking at the Classics for Kreuziger, but I think he rode very well in Italy to get on the podium full-stop, but rode especially well for Contador, and his absence may be a major loss for Contador and therefore may effect his place in the peloton. Moreover, no one really included to measure what Kreuziger did for Contador. In conclusion, I think Froome should win from Bertie, but it’ll be decided by how good Bertie is when being dictated to by the Sky enforcers. If he looks like it’s not going to be a problem for him and he can still dance on the pedals in the manner Clay and others enjoy so much, then his price for the Tour will shorten even more, since he might win here. But he is far too short against a quality campaigner in Froome, and on that basis I am willing to take Contador on by backing Froome instead, even though Contador’s ride in Italy was seriously good and deserving of being installed favourite here.
Managed to get some Quintana value even though he let me down in Italy. Perhaps too much aggression from Bertie to cope with at such an early part of the season. He got a good result in Argentina, and I am willing to have him on side, here. Basso may be worth watching closely to see if he warms to the occasion.
Froome 3/1
Quintana 6/1
Good luck all,
SP
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What Bertie did to Quintana in Italy was a joy to behold
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It cost me a pretty penny, that's for sure.
 But the truth is Quintana had no answer whatsoever. |
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Not sure you can bet against Contador on pure betting grounds. He was outsprinting the lead out trains today to get a better position in today's stage.
Will watch to see what the chances of a route change are before looking at some e/w bets for stage 3. It looks grim on La Molina. |
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Looks like we will get the scheduled route although the weather might make a mess of things.
Will be looking to Dan Martin and Fuglsang for a top 3. If Tinkov start hitting hard then I'll be all over dirty Bertie. |
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Porte abandoned during yesterday's stage 2, so this will even things out between Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo, considerably. The Australian Nathan Earle might feel like it's his moment to step up into Porte's place, but it's a very big ask and I am not expecting much. Porte going out is simply a big loss for Froome and that is reflected now in the market, but it also raises major concerns around Porte's Principal status for the Giro.
I don't see Tinkoff doing much damage CJ70, yes both teams look pretty even now, but most of Tinkoff-Saxo riders are under-done and will be looking to find form here, I believe. The basis for my opposition to Contador was based on more than one factor though, indeed his price was one, even though I acknowledged he deserved to start favourite. But, it was also based on how he might handle the Sky enforcers, of which one, the primary right-hand, has now abandoned the race. Nevertheless, that leaves me with little hesitation to change my approach, since I believe Froome should be capable of going with the attacks of Contador on the basis of his Oman evidence. In fact, I think they'll be quite even, and if they are than that will offer the opportunity to green-out for peanuts at least, and be equipped with more knowledge for the rest of the season. No bets so far for the stages, and none here for stage 3 with some of the points you've raised clouding things. Cheers, SP |
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 Sometimes I wonder why I even bother?    Watching the reply now, you have to wonder what the team directors' are even there for? Do they still understand strategy!? ...Keep Purito in the principal group for as long as possible, and the advantage goes to him for the final ramp! SP |