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20 Mar 14
20:07
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The first of the five prestigious and oldest Monuments on the pro cycling calendar is also the longest! At a total of 294 kilometres, the Milan-San Remo one-day classic is considerably longer than the others, most of which have the finish line at approximately 260. As with most years, there are many good riders on the start line for this year’s event, however the majority haven’t won a race over 200 kilometres, let alone one at nearly 300. Therefore, when looking for a rider who is suited for what is called the ‘Sprinters Classic’, it is wise to consider a rider who has proven himself over the distance, and therefore logically this race in particular.
One rider who has won this race is the Australian sprinter Mathew Goss. In 2011, he out-sprinted an eight-man raiding group of pirates that came from an elite selection over the top of the 3.7 kilometre-long Poggio, the final climb. The 27 year-old rider from the Australian Orica-Greenedge outfit is not getting any younger after having spent the past two seasons in the wilderness which comes with struggling to find form. Nevertheless, it’s warranted to make the inevitable comparison with his hugely-successful 2011 season, since like then he won the same exact stage of the Mitchelton Bay Cycling Classic, formerly the Jayco Bay Cycling Classic.
After this first (and only) win for the season, Goss put in a short, testing burst of speed in a bunch sprint for second-place in the Herald Sun Tour’s second stage, and whilst the Goss of 2011 might have taken that small project to its natural conclusion and won, there is evidence he is taking things in thoughtful and measured steps. Indeed when speaking with a respected cycling publication in early February about his upcoming schedule of races, he stated that the Paris-Nice stage race would serve as a litmus test for his form ahead of Milan-San Remo.
And again, he showed some more promising signs that he may be rediscovering his best sprinting form, by finishing in second place to German sprint gun John Degenkolb in the third stage of Paris-Nice, where the bunch sprint formed along the finishing straight of the wide and smooth Magny-Cours circuit used for Formula-1 racing.
For a sprinter, form comes with confidence and confidence brings winning results, and the aggressive “mongrel” fighting spirit Goss was noted for when winning in 2011 is again being revealed, if only in small glimpses, and it suggests that Goss won’t be at a loss to answer the questions posed by the quality riders in the peloton of this year’s race.
Another such quality rider is the deserving favourite Peter Sagan. With a third and fourth in his last two appearances at"Classicissima" the crafty and characteristically well-suited (for this race) Slovakian, has shown excellent form in recent races. Having been riding in Italy since his 2nd place finish to Michal Kwiatkowski in the 197 kilometre Strade Bianche one day classic, he appears well-settled and happy. Anyone who witnessed his scintillating turn-of-speed to finish fifth in last week’s stage two of the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race, was taking all the 2/1 odds of him winning the very next stage, which he did with aplomb and some poetic justice, in beating the same Kwiatkowski who denied him earlier in Strade Bianche over what was a much sharper gradient toward the finish than the one on this occasion.
At 24 years-of-age, Peter Sagan is getting better each season, and that trajectory suggests that given he does not encounter any bad luck in the race, he should be deeply involved in the finale proceedings. Whilst terribly short and whilst he doesn’t necessarily have the best team to offer him enduring support, Peter Sagan does have the pirate-skills and cunning necessary to win from many places along the course, especially at the foot, along, or over-the-top of the Poggio climb, and he therefore deserves strong consideration in the form of a WIN ONLY banker.
Mathew Goss 80/1 (bet365) E/W
Peter Sagan 7/2 WIN ONLY
One rider who has won this race is the Australian sprinter Mathew Goss. In 2011, he out-sprinted an eight-man raiding group of pirates that came from an elite selection over the top of the 3.7 kilometre-long Poggio, the final climb. The 27 year-old rider from the Australian Orica-Greenedge outfit is not getting any younger after having spent the past two seasons in the wilderness which comes with struggling to find form. Nevertheless, it’s warranted to make the inevitable comparison with his hugely-successful 2011 season, since like then he won the same exact stage of the Mitchelton Bay Cycling Classic, formerly the Jayco Bay Cycling Classic.
After this first (and only) win for the season, Goss put in a short, testing burst of speed in a bunch sprint for second-place in the Herald Sun Tour’s second stage, and whilst the Goss of 2011 might have taken that small project to its natural conclusion and won, there is evidence he is taking things in thoughtful and measured steps. Indeed when speaking with a respected cycling publication in early February about his upcoming schedule of races, he stated that the Paris-Nice stage race would serve as a litmus test for his form ahead of Milan-San Remo.
And again, he showed some more promising signs that he may be rediscovering his best sprinting form, by finishing in second place to German sprint gun John Degenkolb in the third stage of Paris-Nice, where the bunch sprint formed along the finishing straight of the wide and smooth Magny-Cours circuit used for Formula-1 racing.
For a sprinter, form comes with confidence and confidence brings winning results, and the aggressive “mongrel” fighting spirit Goss was noted for when winning in 2011 is again being revealed, if only in small glimpses, and it suggests that Goss won’t be at a loss to answer the questions posed by the quality riders in the peloton of this year’s race.
Another such quality rider is the deserving favourite Peter Sagan. With a third and fourth in his last two appearances at"Classicissima" the crafty and characteristically well-suited (for this race) Slovakian, has shown excellent form in recent races. Having been riding in Italy since his 2nd place finish to Michal Kwiatkowski in the 197 kilometre Strade Bianche one day classic, he appears well-settled and happy. Anyone who witnessed his scintillating turn-of-speed to finish fifth in last week’s stage two of the Tirreno-Adriatico stage race, was taking all the 2/1 odds of him winning the very next stage, which he did with aplomb and some poetic justice, in beating the same Kwiatkowski who denied him earlier in Strade Bianche over what was a much sharper gradient toward the finish than the one on this occasion.
At 24 years-of-age, Peter Sagan is getting better each season, and that trajectory suggests that given he does not encounter any bad luck in the race, he should be deeply involved in the finale proceedings. Whilst terribly short and whilst he doesn’t necessarily have the best team to offer him enduring support, Peter Sagan does have the pirate-skills and cunning necessary to win from many places along the course, especially at the foot, along, or over-the-top of the Poggio climb, and he therefore deserves strong consideration in the form of a WIN ONLY banker.
Mathew Goss 80/1 (bet365) E/W
Peter Sagan 7/2 WIN ONLY
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Replies: 28
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Goss doesn't even get in the Orica GreenEdge team
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Goss out!
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Rain (and slippery roads) forecast for Sunday. Also some wind about.
Headwinds will cause problems for breaks with small numbers. Slippery roads, on the other hand, will slow the peloton, especially on the descents of the Cipressa and Poggio. If the roads are still wet by the time the riders reach the last climb, an elite selection of riders with fearless descending skills amongst them will likely stay away to the finish line. I think that may play into the hands of Sagan, who has arguably the best bike-handling skills of any rider in the race. My apologies to anyone who took some 'all-in' Goss from my suggestion -- just one of those things where living in Australia and being in a different time-zone worked against me within the space of some 12 hours. Hopefully, Sagan can do the business for us and get the win. He certainly ticks all the boxes, and one thing I've noticed from him lately, is his ability to be patient whilst sensing the feeling of the race. This was in evidence in Strade Bianche, for those that saw it, his devastating attack was quite beautiful to watch, however the gradient in the finale was always going to favour Kwiatkowski, so he did make the mistake of staying with the Polish rider all the way. I'm resisting Spartacus on account of his price and absent form, it appears he has done nothing whatsoever this season and his condition looks poor. Take into account that Boonen's price was double to that of his prior to his withdrawal from the race, and the fact that Boonen already had a win under the belt, staying clear of the Swiss rider makes sense to me. I wouldn't go so far as to be laying him, though. That would disrespecting a rider of his talent. Two contrasting riders I'd be looking to find some value on before the start are Diego Ulissi and Alex Kristoff. Kristoff looks like he just deserves to break through this year, and if Ulissi had a bit more weight he'd be ideal to launch off the Poggio as he has been in nearly everything of late, and rode well in Australia at the start of the season, also. SP |
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I have a new system of if the weather is atrocious back Stannard. I got excited when I saw the weather and then deflated when I saw he wasn't racing.
Anyway I'm going to be looking towards a couple of French riders, always dangerous I know. Demare and Vichot look decent prices although the latter will probably be used as a workhorse for the former. Also fancy Degenkolb but he's far too short for my liking, so will look to have a go in play if conditions suit. Good luck all. |
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I would have the same system if I wasn't so opposed to Greg Van Avermaet.
 The guy just has a hard time winning. By the time his fellow countryman Gilbert was 28yo, he had already won four Ardennes Classics. Greg has one autumn classic -- Paris-Tours.  |
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Speaking of French riders -- anyone have a look at Sylvain Chavanel? Thinking of taking a small saver. 100/1 with the books. My reading is he was much more suited by the Paris-Nice course this year, and the French media expected big things from him, but he didn't deliver. Didn't really see much of him, although in either stage 5 or stage 6 he went out by himself on one of the climbs and looked promising, at least briefly, and it came to nothing. 26th in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad looks good on paper, but I didn't see much of him and he finished nearly four minutes behind once on the line. I know he is a tough-as-nails type on the right day, and fearless on the descents nearly always. 4th here last year in those abysmal conditions was his best ever finish.
Any thoughts? SP |
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I like John Degenkolb too. he is surely a classic winner in waiting. Impressed with his form in Paris Nice. I can't get out of my head out how Sagan lost this race last year - he really should have won but fcuked it up!! All the pressure is on Sagan imho
Is Boonem riding to help Cav or has he pulled out waiting for Tour of Flanders/Paris Roubaix? |
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*Boonen
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Chava's Paris-Nice was ruined by a mechanical so I wouldn't read anything into that form wise. I can never back him though as a fan favourite he always tends to be short and luck tends to go against him leaving him as the perennial bridesmaid.
Boonen not racing, so Stybar should be the OPQS man if it doesn't end in a bunch kick. I bought a Cycling.tv subscription to watch the Omloop and Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne on the back of the packed spring schedule and the rest of the damn races are geo-restricted! Eurosport player is useless for in play trading, so definitely at a disadvantage come tomorrow. |
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I think it was easy for Boonen to WD -- his partner suffered a miscarriage with their first child. Must be a terrible situation for them.
I don't recall the last time a team took control of a one-day classic in the way OPQ did in KBK, and ultimately for Boonen's first win of the season? I think his prospects for the Cobbled Classics improves out of this, though, strangely. Maybe a blessing in disguise? It was a mechanical then, I thought it might have been the split in the peloton for Chavanel. It was over for him quite early. Here, I am thinking that he'll be amongst it at some stage and may trade shorter so will put some bids in should that eventuate. Market usually wary of his class. Here in Australia we are forbidden from betting on live sport on the internet, so consider the disadvantage we face in which we must ring the bet-line to place a bet in-play. In some cases, by the time you get through to an operator the price fluctuation may have long passed. Good luck to all, SP |
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I think it was easy for Boonen to WD -- his partner suffered a miscarriage with their first child. Must be a terrible situation for them.
I don't recall the last time a team took control of a one-day classic in the way OPQ did in KBK, and ultimately for Boonen's first win of the season? I think his prospects for the Cobbled Classics improves out of this, though, strangely. Maybe a blessing in disguise? It was a mechanical then, I thought it might have been the split in the peloton for Chavanel. It was over for him quite early. Here, I am thinking that he'll be amongst it at some stage and may trade shorter so will put some bids in should that eventuate. Market usually wary of his class. Here in Australia we are forbidden from betting on live sport on the internet, so consider the disadvantage we face in which we must ring the bet-line to place a bet in-play. In some cases, by the time you get through to an operator the price fluctuation may have long passed. Good luck to all, SP |
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OPQS were scary in KBK, although how much of that was a changed plan because of the disaster they had at the Omloop I don't know.
On stage 4 of Paris-Nice Chavanel picks up a mechanical as the peloton accelerates to pick up positions for the final climb. He and a team mate hammer it to try and get back on but the roads are so tight he struggles to pass those being dropped by the peloton. Typical Chavanel luck I'd say. |
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My bets:
Demare 200/1 ew Bling Matthews 33/1 ew G Thomas 80/1 ew 4 places Kwiatowski 50/1 |
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And I've taken Offredo on here for a few beans 300 win and 16.5 place
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That's an outstanding price on Demare! I have him at 25's
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Yeah got it back in January when they announced the Pompeaina wasn't being used. Wish I'd taken the prices on Griepel as well...
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Well done SP! Think you had Kristoff?
Great ride by him and Katusha. Also by Ben Swift! Maybe he is the Classics rider Sky have been looking for?! |
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Thanks MC!
 Only a saver unfortunately.  Proper one day classic! Bad luck with Spartacus, unless you went E/W? SP. |
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10th Classic in a row Spartacus has been on the podium
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MC -- what was the Spartacus highlight on the oddschecker screenshot all about? Spartacus can just never be discounted in these races, and well he becomes very interesting going into Belgium, now.
Looks like Swift's best ever result in a Classic. I think Stannard's track background makes him a better choice as a principal in the upcoming Classics for Sky. But on that result would certainly have Swift over EBH, who just isn't fulfilling his promise as he matures, it has to be suggested. SP. |
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On the issue of Sagan, obviously he over-reached on the Cipressa -- didn't understand that move and feared he was digging himself in it, and well that flatness was in evidence down the final stretch. Showed some inexperience in a way, where Spartacus was just so patient. I mean, if Sagan was going to go so long than do it, go long, but to put all that work in and then sit back on the descent was just foolish. He just didn't think, didn't think in Strade Bianche, and didn't do it here, again. I thought he was over this, already? Frustrating! Great work from Kristoff though, bit bitter-sweet to have put so much work into uncovering him and then only put a saver in. SP.
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The commentary regarding the riders involved in the finale wasn't very accurate, or more to the point wasn't very good, since many riders had their rain jackets on and were difficult to identify by the race-callers; but looking over the replays and just picking up on the point about the great work by Katusha, it was actually Luca Paolini who did the heavy lifting for Alex Kristoff -- everyone was just hanging on at that stage as Paolini was driving the pace on with his team-mate in the slipstream, and then in the final charge as Kristoff was being swarmed from all sides, he had the legs to kick back out of the guts of the bunch. Fresh legs and great sacrifice by his team-mate got the win. SP.
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Yes, Degenkolb punctured at the foot of the Poggio and not a single mention about it from the comms....you have to say he would have been bang there at the finish
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Never saw your post before SP - the highlight on Cancellara was just a coincidence. I hadn't backed him. Was just where my cursor was resting when I took the screen grab.
I should obviously pay more attention to these things |
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No worries MC.
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