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05 Oct 13
18:38
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
This race since 2011 is considered a climber's classic, and Movistar should own the final climb of the race if their plan holds up till then -- the 3.5km Vergano. Expect there to be some high-profile hangers-on looking to attack, but any attacks will be nullified by a very strong team with newly-minted Rui Costa, Valverde, Visconti and Quintana looking to hold it together for themselves. The Vergano has been critical in the past two years to deciding the eventual winner -- both Zaugg and Purito won from there, and if Movistar are still together on the descent, and therefore along the flat 3km section on the run-in to the finish, then good luck to the favourite Purito in trying to solo to victory. Perhaps a Mollema, Moreno, Ten Dam and Nibali group might get together much earlier, in order to surprise Movistar and disrupt their plan, but that suggests that someone like Quintana will be on police duty to go with such a move, and he can ride away on the Vergano, although would likely get caught somewhere along the 10kms to the finish if chasers were combining well.
I think Purito is a decent lay to pay for my Quintana and Rui Costa bets, and I'm hopeful that the weather doesn't have a huge influence in proceedings, in terms of what we saw at the Worlds.
Clearly, Movistar should own this race.
Good luck to all,
SP
I think Purito is a decent lay to pay for my Quintana and Rui Costa bets, and I'm hopeful that the weather doesn't have a huge influence in proceedings, in terms of what we saw at the Worlds.
Clearly, Movistar should own this race.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Replies: 13
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how come the market is so lacking in liquidity? many riders look awfully short prices?
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Pad -- BF bot is the market compiler. Other than the Tour and perhaps the Vuelta, nearly all cycling markets are severly lacking in liquidity and thus cannot be relied upon to offer dynamic trading markets. It is therefore best to play them outright, since fluctuations may not come.
Who do you think is too short? That can also be a benefit. Cheers, SP |
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lots of them short.got few bets matched overnight, is moreno not not racing, does it usually have any other rider win?
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There's always any other rider option just in case. Moreno is listed at 21's under his full name Moreno Fernandez.
I'm not sure if Purito was working for Moreno in Milan-Torino but he seemed to be completely off the pace. Saving himself for this? If he wins or comes second here he takes the world tour title from Froome so if you can pick up an e/w it should be good value. Any idea why Sagan and Gilbert are so short? In my mind a better course for the climbers than the worlds where both were blown away in the final shake out. Not sure I can touch the Movistar riders pre-off because of the politics surrounding them. Will Movistar work for Rui Costa in the stripes as he heads off to Lampre, is there any payback for Valverde assisting him last week? You can't put it past Movistar using up the likes of Quintana and Visconti early on. So while I agree one of them will be up there at the end, I'm not going to jump in until later on. Scarponi and Pozzovivo for me as cheeky outsiders. Both raced well in Milan-Turin and are underestimated by the books IMO. The ultimate outsider? Natnael Berhane the Eritrean at 1000's and hope it doesn't rain. I'll be laying Nibali, Sagan and Gilbert. |
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ok thx, is it on tv ?
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Yes and no. Depends where you are.
It isn't live in the UK, but there will be internet streams of Eurosport coverage. I've no idea why it isn't live as Eurosport hold the rights as far as I know. Live pictures from RAI at 13.00 UK time. |
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I know it's unoriginal, as they are the first 2 in the betting but i think that either Rodriguez or Nibali will win this.
To me they were clearly climbing better and faster than anyone else last weekend, and i see no reason why that will be any different now. They both believe they should have won last week, and so are both determined to make amends this week. If anything i just favour Nibali as he looked in supreme form in the worlds, and in all probability would have won but for his fall and having to chase hard for 20 mins to get back on. Can't see anyway that Movistar will do any work for Costa, as his ranking points will go to Lampre. If Movistar do put in a big team effort, Costa will be a worker sacrificied, and it will be for Valverde or Quintana. With the news that Froome is out with a back problem, that is going to make Purito even more determined to win! Sure to be in the top 3 at least. |
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Nibali got back on last week with an 80km/h magic spanner trick
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I deserved that, this race was important for rankings as HB stated, and which I didn't take much notice of, thinking that tactics would on the last climb would be best suited to Movistar. Took a loss here
 However, it would've been much worse if Quintana hadn't shortened so drastically at the penultimate climb when he came to the front. You guys come on here too late, I was willing to be convinced on Purito since I was so impressed by his ride last year, and actually had him on the short list. The Movistar move didn't work since Costa put so much work in to bring the peloton to Voeckler, and Quintana in the penultimate climb. Will put this one in the diary for closer scrutiny. Well done Purito backers. Cheers, SP |
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cant win them all sp dissapointing result for me,had martin and quintana
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SP you put up a great write up as always, and you called as you saw it.
It was almost too obvious that Purito was going to win, but as they say don't look a gift horse in the mouth! |
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Layed Purito after he crested the final climb thinking the chasing three would get back to him. Took most of my profit from Voeckler trading at evens but not a great result considering Pozzo traded sub 10's and Nibali and Sagan went home early.
Nibali is making a habit of crashing in the wet. Something to bear in mind for next season. |
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Pad -- I agree, the law of averages dictates that taking a loss at some point is guaranteed, but it didn't have to the case in this race, for me. As HB stated, Purito was climbing well at the Worlds, when he attacked on the final climb he did so with an effortless yet smooth strength, and he had the near exact conditions, here. I actually had this in mind when I got a bargain with him at over 5/1 when the market went up, but then talked myself out of it after reading an article about Movistar, and next talking myself into a lay of Purito, thinking he would be isolated amongst the Movistar riders -- when the professional and smart thing would have been to -- in the least -- bank him or bring him back closer to field red. You don't throw out the bathwater when you can wash your dog in it!
 This was a rookie move, this is not how to grow your bank in cycling, and I am angered that I could have been distracted in such a way. HB -- I think you're being polite. I should present the race from a neutral position and then present my opinion, not suit my theory to fit the details of the race. You are correct, Purito was obvious, and I'm glad you took the advantage. CJ70 -- He was saving himself for this indeed. Good call on the WT points, and you were good to bring these details up for scrutiny. I didn't think much of it, but it's clear that it is an important competition for a team to hold with their rider. Cheers, SP |