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17 Jul 13
20:43
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11 Jul 11
For it's famed regard as a mythical mountaintop finish of the Tour, the 21 hairpin bends to the 1850m elevation of the Alpe d'Huez -- rarely gets included in the race, and much less than what people might think. Certainly never before has the race covered this tough ascent twice in one stage.
The most recent time the Tour visisted, was in 2011, when it was the 19th stage from Modane, over a paltry 109kms only, and with only the one cat 1 climb in addition to the two HC cat climbs. Like this year, it was also the Queen stage of the Tour, however unlike this year where there'll be another two Alp stages to cover over some eleven climbs, in 2011 it was also the final mountain stage of the Tour, and therefore a last chance for the rivals to make something happen of their chances on GC. And they did just that, in fact, with attacks going from the very start. The Schleck brothers were tag-teaming a bruised but gutsy Evans, while Bertie's bold move to attack early would've payed off, if it wasn't for the new man on the scene, promising Frenchman Pierre Rolland, whom -- it can not be forgotten -- was helped by Voeckler through an important period in the race.
I think the riders that can genuinely take back some time on Froome, realize that such an early attack -- as Bertie's in 2011 -- can work successfully with the right support at the right time; and therefore Movistar, Belkin, and Saxo -- have strategic and tactical options to put pressure on Sky and force them to make mistakes. The three cat 2 and one cat 3 climbs, in addition to the two HC cat climbs up Alpe d'Huez, plays into the hands of those seeking to make attacking moves, since the race becomes much longer from a strategic perspective. However, I don't think these teams can pressure Froome enough for him to crack completely, and get into what can be termed as "survival mode" where he's losing between 3 --> 5mins on his rivals. Sickness and injury can obviously do that to a rider, but I'm not interested in entertaining such scenarios as such things reflect poorly on our collective human condition, and moreover, they are almost impossible to predict, in any case.
What the 210km, 17th stage of the 2008 edition from Embrun showed, was that a team combining well together can set up the stage victory for its best climber, by ramping up the speed in the preceding climb, and have that climber claim over 2mins on his closest rivals by soloing from the base of the final climb, in the form of an individual mountain TT -- as CSC-Saxo Bank did for Spanish climber Carlos Sastre. However, this is the tactic Sky has branded for themselves by making it so surgical in the mountains, and even though they may not be capable of performing it here again to the same extent, the other teams have proven they cannot either in the mountains.
I believe that only multiple attacks by multiple teams, using riders in forward positions to pace their eventual principal breakaways to victory or time-gaining positions -- have any chance of hurting Sky, as they would need to fight battles across various fronts, and which -- as a result -- might cause them to make mistakes. Put plainly; only chaos in the Sky camp could possibly inflict some holes in their arsenal.
However; the proverbial chips may fall to this one scenario, to the one climb left to conclude the day's racing, and with the way Froome is performing in the mountains and the manner in which he'll likely perform again here, using all the evidence of all the previous stages of this Tour so far -- is Sky make the call to Froome, and using the short and direct language generals in battle use, they say to him -- go forward and win Chris!
...And I'm willing to bet that he will.
Froome opened-up as a solid 2/1 favourite with the Books, but has been drifting out on here without too much resistance, so far.
The forecast for heavy storms on this stage, promoted the rumour that race officials were considering shortening the stage by one less climb of the Alpe d'Huez.
There'll be storms alright, and they'll be coming from the Sky!
Good luck to all,
SP
The most recent time the Tour visisted, was in 2011, when it was the 19th stage from Modane, over a paltry 109kms only, and with only the one cat 1 climb in addition to the two HC cat climbs. Like this year, it was also the Queen stage of the Tour, however unlike this year where there'll be another two Alp stages to cover over some eleven climbs, in 2011 it was also the final mountain stage of the Tour, and therefore a last chance for the rivals to make something happen of their chances on GC. And they did just that, in fact, with attacks going from the very start. The Schleck brothers were tag-teaming a bruised but gutsy Evans, while Bertie's bold move to attack early would've payed off, if it wasn't for the new man on the scene, promising Frenchman Pierre Rolland, whom -- it can not be forgotten -- was helped by Voeckler through an important period in the race.
I think the riders that can genuinely take back some time on Froome, realize that such an early attack -- as Bertie's in 2011 -- can work successfully with the right support at the right time; and therefore Movistar, Belkin, and Saxo -- have strategic and tactical options to put pressure on Sky and force them to make mistakes. The three cat 2 and one cat 3 climbs, in addition to the two HC cat climbs up Alpe d'Huez, plays into the hands of those seeking to make attacking moves, since the race becomes much longer from a strategic perspective. However, I don't think these teams can pressure Froome enough for him to crack completely, and get into what can be termed as "survival mode" where he's losing between 3 --> 5mins on his rivals. Sickness and injury can obviously do that to a rider, but I'm not interested in entertaining such scenarios as such things reflect poorly on our collective human condition, and moreover, they are almost impossible to predict, in any case.
What the 210km, 17th stage of the 2008 edition from Embrun showed, was that a team combining well together can set up the stage victory for its best climber, by ramping up the speed in the preceding climb, and have that climber claim over 2mins on his closest rivals by soloing from the base of the final climb, in the form of an individual mountain TT -- as CSC-Saxo Bank did for Spanish climber Carlos Sastre. However, this is the tactic Sky has branded for themselves by making it so surgical in the mountains, and even though they may not be capable of performing it here again to the same extent, the other teams have proven they cannot either in the mountains.
I believe that only multiple attacks by multiple teams, using riders in forward positions to pace their eventual principal breakaways to victory or time-gaining positions -- have any chance of hurting Sky, as they would need to fight battles across various fronts, and which -- as a result -- might cause them to make mistakes. Put plainly; only chaos in the Sky camp could possibly inflict some holes in their arsenal.
However; the proverbial chips may fall to this one scenario, to the one climb left to conclude the day's racing, and with the way Froome is performing in the mountains and the manner in which he'll likely perform again here, using all the evidence of all the previous stages of this Tour so far -- is Sky make the call to Froome, and using the short and direct language generals in battle use, they say to him -- go forward and win Chris!
...And I'm willing to bet that he will.
Froome opened-up as a solid 2/1 favourite with the Books, but has been drifting out on here without too much resistance, so far.
The forecast for heavy storms on this stage, promoted the rumour that race officials were considering shortening the stage by one less climb of the Alpe d'Huez.
There'll be storms alright, and they'll be coming from the Sky!
Good luck to all,
SP
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not selection SP? great write up as per. I think Purito is getting better and better and i fancy him to pick up the pieces of everyone attacking and everyone being knackered on the final ascent. What a wonderful TT from Purito today.
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SP, Thanks for another great preview.
Do you not think it could be the day for Quintana? I think they may be a chance that Sky do not Police him and just concentrate on the Saxo pair. This may force Saxo to do the donkey work in trying to pull him back to preserve their Podium places. | ||||||||||||||
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froome
 at 7/2 seems fair | ||||||||||||||
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Great write up again SP ,I have no real opinion but if the in play market is anything like it was today
 I will no doubt be throwing a few shillings at a few riders, god knows what the weather may bring .. Gl all ,great tour ... | ||||||||||||||
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froome now 4/1,he owes me nothing so backed him,is he a machine?
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Thanks Clay, Chamberlain, and Casemoney for your kind words -- much appreciated!
Yes Clay, I negelected to mention on the stage thread that I -- like yourself -- was particularly impressed with Purito's riding in the ITT. With that performance, he has signalled confirmation that it is indeed good form in the mountains for him, and he rightly deserves to be third favourite, ahead of your Bertie. Where is I would have no problem in laying Bertie in the stage at 8/1 or thereabouts, I would not like to be even considering laying Purito. I therefore agree with you, that he can be in a crafty move after plying his trade diligently throughout the stage and without expending himself overly much. Selection, yes, sorry. As I've agreed before, and to my disbelief, I don't think Movistar are tactically strong and the best instruction Quintana will be given is to stay on Froome's wheel for the duration, and attack close to the finish if feeling good. Which is a real shame, because they have some really good options -- one of which is letting Valverde and company go at various individual points throughout the stage, and setting up forward relays for a Quintana pace attack. That way Quintana could go fairly early in the piece -- say by the first time up Alpe d'Huez -- and thus have clear goals for 50kms of riding, before the final climb, in the form of a solo ascent. Chamberlain -- interesting thoughts, and valid questions. I think Contador has inferred that he has it in him to repeat a similar performance to his 2011 effort, and Sky will be mindful of that. I think it's forum poster LV who has provided us with this information in relation to interviews Contador has given for Spanish radio. It is not in dispute that he'll be fighting, however I question whether he can repeat such a performance, and so whilst he can put in an attack, it would only be one of what I have identified as a pseudo variety. Which, could be effective if he was willing to accept that that is all he could provide for the team, since Kreuziger is providing an honest account of himself in the mountains and in my opinion would finish ahead of Bertie by the conclusion of the stage. But, I don't think Bertie can admit he's no longer the force he once was, and I believe he'll be a waste of a good weapon for Saxo, since he won't be used the right or most effective way. In addition, Sky would be watching Quintana very closely I think, with the only possibility of allowing him to clear out from the Froome group, is if he goes early and has no assistance up the road -- since he is inexperienced, and with the heavy crowds forming on the climb, he would be perhaps become isolated within himself, or more accurately within his mind as a young rider, and Sky would think Froome has his measure. Casemoney -- good to hear about you hooking into a whale, this stage should be quite chaotic, so I would envisage similar play for you. No problems with Froome's price at 4/1 presently, and continuing to drift. I've been hitting it consistently on the way up and improving the average price. I would predict that 5/1 was his peak before the off, though. Cheers, SP | ||||||||||||||
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* 4/1. SP.
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Great write up again SP, as always a good read.
If we do get the full stage, think a break may stay away here. Small bets Schleck 30/1 and Gadret 150/1. If does come down to favs group would fancy Quintana if he can reign himself in and just follow Froome. Think he has been attacking far too early. And froome has said he will be happy for Quintana to win the stage if he has the legs to stay with him. | ||||||||||||||
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c-cycling.blogspot.co.uk suggests Froome wont go for the win:
"After Wednesday’s time trial Froome stated that he no longer aims at stage wins but only to keep the yellow jersey." "The best winner pick is therefore probably Nairo Quintana since Froome is no longer interested in the stage wins." I hope it's wrong, I want to see Froome win some more stages. Cadel Evans is crazy short, he was backed down to 33/1 at one point on here - I'd have him at 100/1 or more myself | ||||||||||||||
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also done kloden ,mabey theyd let him go?
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i think froome will want to be remembered as majestic in this tour so why not go for another stage?
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SP Thanks for your reply.
You seem to think there is a good chance that Kreuziger will finish ahead of Contador by the end of the tour, In that case do you think there is any value in backing Kreuziger in the 'winner w/o Froome' market at about 6/1? Cheers and good luck. | ||||||||||||||
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Thanks Happybacker, I really appreciate your kind words. I've been considering Schleck after his decent ITT performance, yesterday. Just cannot seem to pull the trigger on him as a saver in this stage -- but he has some positives worth considering, when you take into account his experience and talent. But I think he'll want to have a good Alps in order to begin building some form for next year. So, I'd expect more improvement, but I can't have him winning this on current form, even if it is improving.
Prior to the ITT, quite strangely, Froome warned his rivals that if they put in a big effort they may not cope with the amount of climbing still remaining in the race, and then inferred that he himself won't be putting it all on the line to win the stage, because of the amount of said climbing. He then went on to win in very fine fashion, looking visibly fast on the descent with his TT machine. I therefore think it's a bit of sportsmanship from Froome -- he won't be able to keep himself from making a final selection today and go for the stage win, should such a likely opportunity present itself. And I therefore agree with mp06 -- he is having an amazing race and will want to be remembered as one of the best riders in a long time. Quintana is the obvious pick, but I'm just not confident with Movistar tactics to deliver him into good tactical positions. I think the Evans price is taking into account his performance here last time. He also came out prior to the ITT, saying that it means nothing to him and he'll be looking to save himself for the final climbing stages. I agree his price is very short, but 100/1 brings in fans of Evans and their loyal opinion of his dogged performance here two years ago. The weather will either smile on one or more riders, be severe for all, or not be a factor at all. Unless we were to have someone on the ground informing the forum of real-time conditions beyond the images on tv -- I think it's next to impossible to gain an advantage with one or two forecasts for the region. Consider how localised and short the showers were yesterday. Should be a great stage -- I continue to remain solid on Froome. Cheers, SP | ||||||||||||||
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Chamberlain -- no worries, it's good to have some intelligent discussions and interest. I didn't really say that I think Kreuziger will perform better than Contador on GC. Let me explain -- I think Kreuziger might gain some time on Contador today, but that might not necessarily translate to another two stages to come.
Admittedly, I haven't really scrutinized the market to which you refer, I often feel like such smaller markets have problems with liquidity in a sport which is still taking time to develop an interest with punters. Nevertheless, Contador as favourite is a clear opportunity for a cheap lay on a much-hyped rider, who, in my opinion, is in clear danger of losing his second place to Quintana, and yes perhaps even Kreuziger, who is not doing anything spectacular, but just sticking to being consistent in the mountains. However, he has been known to have bad days in the mountains though, last year's Giro comes to mind, when he was amongst the contenders after two weeks of riding to then suddenly knock-up and fall right of the GC. If those days are behind him than we won't likely see him much in today's stage, nor the two following, but he'll be on the first page of the stage results, and inching himself up the GC. To answer your question, I think laying Contador in that market makes much more sense, but as you will have noticed the over-round is not exactly fair. Therefore, I'd want to be matched much closer to his back price than where the price for a lay is presently. In conclusion; I think Kreuziger can let you down, but Contador will only continue to let himself down if he continues to not realize that his days of great achievements in pro cycling are behind him. Cheers, SP | ||||||||||||||
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SP, Thank you for taking the time to reply. I will monitor that market today and might get involved, but as you said liquidity looks a big issue.
Good Luck. | ||||||||||||||
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Reminds me of Banesto v LeMond in '91
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although Froome will probably fare much better than Shotgun did...
my financial interest on Purito | ||||||||||||||
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Froome 7 minutes behind - can't claw that back surely.
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Ride Purito ride...
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what a stage to watch
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TJ busting his backers again
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Kreuziger sacrificed his chances of a podium finish to assist Contador,although he was initially dropped,there is no doubt that he is the sronger rider.I am sure he won't receive much gratitude from his team leader based on interviews with Contador's former team mates.
If Contador finishes on the Podium,he will have been extremely fortunate because I would have him as the fifth strongest rider in the peleton,this is highlighted by his need to attack on dangerous descents because he no longer has it in his legs to attack on the hardest ascents. | ||||||||||||||
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Probably his mechanical in the descent has cost TJ the stage win imo.
Contador 5th strongest? I have Froome, Quintana, Purito, Kreuziger, Porte and Valverde being stronger than him | ||||||||||||||
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Kreuziger already sacrificed his chances on Satr in the Pyrenaes when he waited for AC up to Ax3D
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Rodriguez not stronger than him as well??Managed to place lay Contador for today's stage at 3.1.
It's a pity tomorrow's stage is back the front because I don't think he deserves a podium finish. | ||||||||||||||
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I didn't see Purito on your list
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It's a fair point bb66, but I'm not convinced the mechanical had all that much of an effect. Especially, when you consider that Riblon came to grief on the descent of the Col de Sarenne by riding into that ditch. I thought they were one-all after those two incidents, and whilst I thought TJ would hang on when he was on the final climb, I think the crowd and historic nature of the occasion seemed to give Riblon wings, and that was the difference in the end. SP.
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well, while Riblon came back to Moser in the descent already, TJ had to close the gap on the flat, and his problem cost him more time I think, but you will never know
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I wasn't aware of that actually, the broadcaster went to an awfully long commercial break, and when they came back I was considering something else and the narrative was broken a little. It definitely makes sense that if TJ was doing all his solo work on the flat than he was expending much more energy than Riblon, who did catch up to Moser quite easily on the descent. And therefore I concede your point -- you are right, the mechanical harmed TJ much more, and cost him the stage.
SP. | ||||||||||||||
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Yes Sp i think BB was right that the mechanical cost TJ. They clocked TJ as being 44 seconds behind as they reached the bottom of the descent, where as Riblon caught back on to Moser relatively quickly. TJ definitely had to TT the flat to catch the other 2, but then when he kicked on the climb and went on i thought he had it, really felt for him at the end.
I was right today was going to be a breakaway win, just felt Schleck would defo be in it, think he wanted it when he went on his own. But unfortunatley he realised they had let the front 3 get too far away. Have a feeling Schleck will win the final mountain stage on saturday with an attack on the penultimate climb. | ||||||||||||||
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Happybacker -- picking up from where bb66 brought up the SAXO versus RADIOSHACK LEOPARD TC battle, on different thread -- it does look exciting, energised, and for a team to win it at the Tour it does hold great prestige, since pro cycling is very much about teamwork, and for the team sponsor it's a powerful marketing tool to have such a title.
I therefore think that for Radioshack to have a rider in the break on Saturday, Maxime Montfort, not Schleck, ticks nearly all the boxes: 1.) 15th on GC at some 20mins behind -- so not a danger to contenders and would be left in a breakaway. 2.) Did absoluetly nothing at the back of the Yellow jersey group, and coasted into the finish with +4secs on them in 28th place. 3.) Proven in the mountains, this Tour:
Presently, Montfort 99/1 on here, compared to Schleck at 25/1, the latter who has done nothing except suggest he's working toward a slow comeback in 2014. Only concern, he's never won a GT stage, and last win was 3 years ago. Cheers, SP | ||||||||||||||
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Agree with a lot of what your saying there SP.
I too think that radioshack are definitely after the team classification, but i still think it will be Schleck they try to win the stage with tomorrow. He desperatley wants to win a mountain stage here to prove he still has it, and his big aim for the tour was to win at Alpe D'Huez. HIs big plan was to go like he did for Galibier in 2011, ride across to his team mates in the break and then use them to take him on before soloing to victory. To a degree it went to his plan, he jumped on the first ascent of D'Huez yesterday, and he made it across to the chasing group easily but unfortunately the 3 leaders were away and Voight was left in no mans land, so i believe in the end they miscalculated and decided it just wasn't going to happen. I'm sure Schleck will be even more determined to make it work tomorrow. Watch him on the final climb today, he started it with the leaders looking easy but then just seemed to give up on it. I think he is saving it for tomorrow. It's a certainty that radioshack will be doing everything they can tomorrow to win the TC. I expect to see a couple of Radioshack riders in the early break, maybe Voight and Zubeldia?? and then Schleck to try to jump across to them very early on the penultimate climb. Then kick on from the top of that penultimate climb for a huge solo win! Maybe i'm just being to romantic in wanting to see that happen! I can see what your saying with Monfort but i just don't think he has the ability to go for a huge solo win, in the way that only Schleck could be capable of. Schleck hasn't been quite as consistent as Monfort but he has certainly performed well on most of the mountain stages and put up a career best TT. But i also agree with you that he is not great value at 25/1 and that at 99/1 or more Montfort definitely offers better value. As the plan for Radioshack will surely be for one of them to win tomorrow! I will be backing Schleck, as i think it kills 2 birds with 1 stone, Schlecks desired stage win and more importantly it would bring the team win! But i will cover with a small bet on montfort, as you might be right and he might be the teams preferred option. | ||||||||||||||
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I remember the 2011 Galibier "raid" as it was thought to be a very clever plan by LT. I actually thought Quintana could do something similar with Movistar earlier in this Tour, since a team needs strong climbers to pull it off, and they have proved that they are a great team in the mountains.
Just reading up on it now, Schleck was full of praise for Montfort who helped him a lot that day. Schleck also explained how much hard work he had done to be capable of achieving such a win -- where is this year it appears he is working just by riding in the Tour. For, surely you cannot possibly counter my claim that Schleck is nowhere near where he was in 2011? I mean Schleck was at his best, and you can tell he wants to return to that level, but I cannot see any evidence of it happening tomorrow. In cycling, I don't think a rider can just show up all-of-sudden, and win such a tough stage. I mean, he can, but then you look back at his season and there's at least a kernel of a suggestion for it. With Schleck, however, there is nothing because he is coming back from injury, still, it would appear. But, don't get me wrong, many people would like to see him repeat such a great ride, I'm one of them, but it just doesn't happen very often, even for a rider in good form, and so I must therefore conclude that you are indeed looking at this through rose-tinted glasses. As for his TT ride, we know he has never been one for performing well in TTs, it's been his fault if anything, so over a mountainous one, he wouldn't need to do much to beat his best. Yes, he can be determined, but determination is not all that's necessary -- others riders will have determination, good form, fresh legs and are having a good Tour. I would therefore suggest that he gave up today because that's all he could do, not because he can do much better tomorrow. Thanks, SP | ||||||||||||||
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Great memories i was on the Galibier that day!! is probably what is clouding my judgement. Had a nice bet on Schleck to win the stage, was unbelievable to be there cheering him home, then celebrating his victory in the bars of Valloire that night. Though to be fair his terrible TT, 2 days later cost me a fortune, as had backed big time to win the tour! So he went from hero to villain in my eyes in a matter of days!
Yes what your saying is right SP, i can't deny that, without question Schleck is not in the form he was in 2 years ago or he wouldn't be half hour behind on GC. I appreciate it is unlikely he will be able to win tomorrow. But we know he does have the class to do it, and he has shown glimpses of getting somewhere near to his form of old. On the stage to bagneres de Bigorre he looked in good shape and this weeks TT showed he's not that far behind most of the best climbers on the clock. Not an indication he is in any way at his very best but glimpses that he might not be too far away. The most likely winner tomorrow would be Froome or Quintana or possibly Rodriguez, but i think a break will go all the way again tomorrow and that someone from that break will solo away like Costa did today. So you could pick any of about 50 riders who might be capable of getting in the breakaway. I just think we know for sure that Radioshack are going to be trying whatever they can to get riders away. So a fair chance Schleck will be in the equation, and if Schleck is in the break or as i think manages to get across further on. Then i believe he will be one of the strongest riders in the break and would have a very good chance from there of winning the stage. Like you said 25/1 does not really offer value but I will be backing him. You may well be right that Montfort is the Radio shack preferred option, as the form man in the team, and he will be the one they are looking to tomorrow. We will see! Should be a great stage to watch. Surely Radioshack will be attacking from the off, they definitely want the TC. If Montfort or Schleck get away will Saxo send Rogers or Kreuziger up the road, will they risk Contadors podium over the TC?? Probably not but could be interesting. | ||||||||||||||
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I was actually going to say that you must have fond memories of a good win to entertain such a scenario again, this time. However, I didn't want to sound disrespectful, for you have been a great contributor to this forum. If Schleck has 5mins of a breakaway on the final climb today, I would be very confident to lay him at a low price.  Cheers, SP | ||||||||||||||
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4 today for me at the odds, small stakes for a bit of fun.
Schleck Montfort Rogers Zubeldia | ||||||||||||||
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Happybacker -- not your Schleck.
 -- not my Montfort. -- Nope, it was neither.  -- It was big Jens Voigt. What a guy... Cheers, SP |