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16 Jul 13
20:32
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
The closest recent stage profile which comes even close to this mountain ITT stage 17, is in this year's stage 6 around Beasain, in northern Spain, in the Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco, covering 24kms. From what I can discern it had the follwoing climbs 1.) 2kms @ 7.33%, 1.5kms @ 6.92%, and 0.5km @12.14%, with a ramp in the middle and one at the end. T. Martin beat Quintana by 17secs and the best from the rest who will start in this stage, was Porte in 4th, some 40secs behind.
To put some of that into perspective; Porte's best ITT result was a win in this year's 9.6km Paris-Nice stage 7, from Nice to the Col d'Eze, essentially a cat 1 climb race. Quintana finished 3rd, 27secs behind. In fact, the Col d'Eze, is a famous summit time trial used mainly in the Paris-Nice stage race, which Wiggins won in 2012 to win on GC. Now, T. Martin came 2nd to Wiggins in the 2012 Volta ao Algarve Stage 5 ITT from Lagoa to Portimao over 25.8kms, which has a profile similar to the Ciclista al Pais Vasco of this year which Martin won. And; Froome has beaten Wiggins in the 2011 stage 10 ITT over 47kms around Salamanca, which was uphill to the middle and then downhill to the finish, so therefore not pancake flat.
However, in this stage, Martin's power will be severely blunted by the two cat 2 climbs, which are both quite long at over 6kms, not to mention steep at 6%. Froome, on the other hand is very much suited by the climbs and proved how well he is riding in the previous ITT by getting close to Martin over a flat parcours which suited Martin more.
In summary; even disbarring a mechanical failure, a flat tyre, or essentially the need for a change of bike -- which roughly estimates to about a conservative loss of 25secs in a TT of this type, according to Sky mechanic Gary Blem -- Froome should have this stage very easily, and with time on all his rivals. It is as close to a bank job as a cycling stage bet comes, however it's not a bet worth having for me. I'm also not sure about the liquidity in this market given that Froome's short price of 1/4 will act as a severe anchor, weighing down liquidity. Otherwise; Michael Rogers' 150/1 price might trade shorter, as might T. Martin's 10/1 -- if looking for some loose change value for interest.
In fact, the only bet worth having is; how many riders will be on road bikes with aero extensions on handlebars, since road bikes are so aerodynamic nowadays that they are perfect as mid-terrain time trial bikes.
0:
1-->10:
11->20:
21->50:
51+:
Come on gents, price this one up.
Good luck to all,
SP
To put some of that into perspective; Porte's best ITT result was a win in this year's 9.6km Paris-Nice stage 7, from Nice to the Col d'Eze, essentially a cat 1 climb race. Quintana finished 3rd, 27secs behind. In fact, the Col d'Eze, is a famous summit time trial used mainly in the Paris-Nice stage race, which Wiggins won in 2012 to win on GC. Now, T. Martin came 2nd to Wiggins in the 2012 Volta ao Algarve Stage 5 ITT from Lagoa to Portimao over 25.8kms, which has a profile similar to the Ciclista al Pais Vasco of this year which Martin won. And; Froome has beaten Wiggins in the 2011 stage 10 ITT over 47kms around Salamanca, which was uphill to the middle and then downhill to the finish, so therefore not pancake flat.
However, in this stage, Martin's power will be severely blunted by the two cat 2 climbs, which are both quite long at over 6kms, not to mention steep at 6%. Froome, on the other hand is very much suited by the climbs and proved how well he is riding in the previous ITT by getting close to Martin over a flat parcours which suited Martin more.
In summary; even disbarring a mechanical failure, a flat tyre, or essentially the need for a change of bike -- which roughly estimates to about a conservative loss of 25secs in a TT of this type, according to Sky mechanic Gary Blem -- Froome should have this stage very easily, and with time on all his rivals. It is as close to a bank job as a cycling stage bet comes, however it's not a bet worth having for me. I'm also not sure about the liquidity in this market given that Froome's short price of 1/4 will act as a severe anchor, weighing down liquidity. Otherwise; Michael Rogers' 150/1 price might trade shorter, as might T. Martin's 10/1 -- if looking for some loose change value for interest.
In fact, the only bet worth having is; how many riders will be on road bikes with aero extensions on handlebars, since road bikes are so aerodynamic nowadays that they are perfect as mid-terrain time trial bikes.
0:
1-->10:
11->20:
21->50:
51+:
Come on gents, price this one up.
Good luck to all,
SP
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Replies: 24
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Hi SP another top write up.
But i'm against you on this one. I've had my biggest bet of the tour so far on Tony Martin @ 15/1 tomorrow! I'm just astounded by the price. Martin has now won his last 10 TT's on the bounce, and so you can be sure he will be wanting to make that 11. Yes the course doesn't favour him any where near as much as the last one, and it would look much more suited to Froome. But the odds on quotes of 1/4 for Froome are just ridiculous, and anyone backing him at that price is mad. Yes Froome is bound to be in the top 3 or 4 and is very capable of winning tomorrow. Yet listen to what he had to say at the end of todays stage, that he will be going hard in the TT but must save a bit for the huge stages coming up over the next few days. I would expect Froome to attack the climbs but back of on the descents. Riding last he is the advantage of knowing what his rivals are doing, and i would think he will be happy to just match them tomorrow, not losing any time. Knowing that the mountains to come are where the real time is lost and won. Where as Martin is 110% going out there to try and win the stage, nothing else will matter. Martin will put everything on the line tomorrow, he has nothing to lose. For last week stime trial Martin was still recovering from his first week fall, another week on and he will almost certainly be feeling that much better than last week. I also think going early maybe a big advantage too. He is the best time trialist in the field, you can bet he's done plenty of re-con on the route and will know exactly where he has to really push it. sure to be leading after his run, at worst he is going to be a great trade but i also think he is the most likely winner. Two other riders who could be very competitive are the 2 white jersey combatants, Quintana and Kwiatowski. But both have been riding hard all tour to be up there on the GC, and so there is no way they will be as fresh or as focused for this as Martin. |
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Have topped up with some more at 16/1!! and will be adding more if he keeps drifting!
The time trials in the last week of a tour are so much harder for the GC guys who have been at it everyday, where as Martin has just been ticking over waiting for this. If this TT was in the first week of the tour then i would have 3 or 4 ahead of martin but in the last week of a tour, he is riding against guys with tired legs, who want to hold a bit back for the 3 hard stages following. The more I look at it, the more i'm convincing myself this is the best value bet for a long long time! |
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No mention of the most important factor tomorrow and the reason Froome is 1.4 rather than 1.1 - most weather forecasts are predicting thundery showers and the downhills are quite tricky
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Yes GB i read that, thats why i said above that it will be an advanyage for Marrtin going early, as they are expecting the rain to come in later. Still think 1.4 is way too short on someone who isn't focussed on and doesn't need to win the stage tomorrow.
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I've been laying Tony. I don't see him being able to do much with the steepness of the climbs. Interestingly Twitter is suggesting he'll start with a road bike and then switch to a TT bike mid-race.
I'm looking at Kwia for a podium as he needs to take time on Quintana and hope for the best in the Alps. Will back in play as he should drift if one of the early starters blitz it. |
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Looks like they are expecting the rain to arrive at lunchtime/ early afternoon, so early starters may have an advantage. So have added a couple of small ew on Westra 250/1 and Svein Tuft 250/1, both out in the first hour so should have the best of the conditions.
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no value bet today by the look of it,not sure why they need to have timetrials? get up them climbs u lazy gits
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Hey Happybacker, thanks, and a great reply by you -- you haven't convinced me but you've made a very compelling case. I understand your point clearly, however I believe Froome's second best performance is enough to beat Martin here. I think if Wiggins was riding, he could beat Martin, and Froome may be riding better than Wiggins' best, at this race. But I'm not willing to oppose you beyond holding this view in writing, so wish you the very best.
 At the bottom of the last climb yesterday, it was interesting to note that Martin was setting the pace -- he'll be right up for this, for sure. I've thrown some coins on Michael Rogers @ 255/1 and put a bid lay in case some interest comes after he sets a decent time. Interesting views by the forum, good points on the weather -- should definitely be a factor. Looks like the liquidity might be alright. Cheers, SP |
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You have a great trade already on Tony, now trading at 9's. Has he announced that he's aiming to win this?
Time gaps are going to be massive and we may see some riders miss the cut here. Kittel has put nearly 4 mins on Tuft and 5 on Murayev. |
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I wish I had some of the big Westra prices that were knocking about.
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De Gendt storming this. Worth a few quid if he can get home before the storm comes in.
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Tony Martin finished, he's 3rd behind Westra and De Marchi.
De Gendt 44seconds up on Westra and 2nd checkpoint, looking good. |
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Froome a great lay here with the weather. he wont take any risk in the last downhill. he wont win that time trial
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total insanity in market ive bet fromme at 7-2 manage to lay at evens so far
ive taken a chance on contodour at 25 on valverde at 60s tried to lay 1.01 van garderen got very little matched just missed it  total insane bit of rain everyone went mad |
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yeah i just missed the 1.01 myself, been waiting to bust one of these all tour
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is froom e a decent lay?
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tejay backed at 1.01, now 21 to win
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Tejay market
1.01 £1,067 1.03 £555 1.05 £40 1.06 £33 1.28 £26 1.29 £380 1.30 £4,928 1.31 £4,944 1.32 £540 1.33 £171 1.34 £4,148 1.35 £266 1.36 £855 1.37 £849 1.38 £609 1.39 £462 1.40 £9 £8,644 1.41 £592 1.42 £2,166 1.43 £905 1.44 £847 1.45 £1,515 1.46 £1,042 1.47 £1,003 1.48 £780 1.49 £613 1.50 £7,468 1.51 £1,399 1.52 £750 1.53 £955 1.54 £2,203 1.55 £1,308 1.56 £532 1.57 £97 1.58 £797 1.59 £114 1.60 £1,423 1.61 £448 1.62 £79 1.63 £547 1.65 £232 1.66 £116 1.69 £199 1.70 £719 1.73 £9 1.75 £71 1.76 £37 1.77 £55 1.78 £216 1.79 £58 1.80 £0 £1,100 1.82 £136 1.85 £145 1.86 £431 1.88 £172 1.90 £421 1.95 £20 1.98 £61 1.99 £172 2.00 £4 £1,799 I dont know a lot about cycling but i know a bit more than these people |
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has to be the most insane in runing market ive seen in a while
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that was an unreal stage brilliant by froome ,great ride by valverde and contodor
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Bertie has made a huge mistake not changing bikes....he would have won otherwise
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You are correct, Clay. SP.
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contador used the same bike because he thought it was wetter on the descent into the finnish than it turned out to be, but was already commited once he had done 1 or 2 kilometeres of descent - his comments on spanish radio straight after the finnish were that it started raining slightly when he neared the top of the second montain check and preferred to do the descent with a normal bike for improved handling than risk using a faster bike and crash...wrong call.
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Got a bit carried away with the weather there. Sucked into De Gendt and Tejay.
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