Tdf Stage 16: Vaison La Romaine --> Gap

There are many ways into Gap -- the city at the base of the Alps -- but two things are most clear: 1.) It's always a fast descent down, and 2.) It seems that
a breakaway group is almost always successful. For instance; in the 2006 stage 14 edition, starting in the west and covering 181kms, it was Pierrick Fedrigo in a 2-man breakaway who won, from a closing yet fatigued peloton. Four years later, in the 2010 stage 10 edition from Chambery in the north and covering 179kms, the peloton let a 6-man breakaway develop, which attacked each other brutally, until 10kms from the finish there were only two in the lead, and it was Sergio Paulinho who won from Vasili Kiryienka. And, in the most recent edition, the 2011 stage 16 from Saint Paul Trois Chateaux, the race was not only over a similar distance as this year at 163kms, but also covered a similar route toward the finish in so far as it went over the cat 2 Col de Manse, the final climb before the long descent into Gap. However, unlike this year, in 2011 there were no cat climbs on the road leading in. Nevertheless, it was a memorable stage, for a 10-man breakaway developed in wet conditions, and whilst it was Hesjedal whom attacked and got away from the nine others, he was caught on the downhill section into town by the two Norwegians, and ended-up helping team-mate Hushovd get his second victory that year from Hushovd's fellow countryman EBH.

I think there will be at least two riders left to contest the finish. Again, like the stage 14 into Lyon where Trentin won, the race should have a one-day
classic feel to it. I've gone for some big prices in order to build a position, should at least one of the five picks find the breakaway.

Julien Simon started this year's Tour in Corsica in lively fashion by finishing; 13/6/9, and impressed by being involved in the 6-man breakaway close to the finish on the hilly, stage 2, when Bakelants won. Recently, he was involved in the crowded breakaway into Lyon, where he attacked and tried to solo his
way along the unsuitable -- long and straight and flat boulevard route through Lyon itself. With no where to hide, he was caught under the red kite. Given a finish like he'll have in this stage he would likely win. The Alps won't be favourable to his team's chances of claiming their biggest ever victory, however
this is still not the Alps, and therefore it is another opportunity for a win for Sojasun. 100/1.

Jean-Christophe Peraud, the 36yo experienced campaigner, has been ultra-consistent this Tour, averaging 31st place for the past fifteen stages, and not finishing worse than 71st place, which came in the sprinters' finish into Tours. Not surprisingly perhaps, since he is a noted climber, his best finishes
were the mountaintop finishes to Ax 3 Domaines (13th) and Mont Ventoux (10), where in the latter stage he rode courageously as he began to experience
cramping in his legs. He seems to be riding with renewed vigour in his advanced years for a professional rider, and with AG2R having little to show for
their efforts this Tour, it might be Peraud who fancies his chances in a stage which suits his style of riding. 250/1.

After a rest day, young riders can feel refreshed and exuberant, and with this in mind I am again going for the young gun Romain Bardet, who has performed well in the climbing stages so far this Tour, and given that the last climb of the day suits his abilities and he is a noted attacker in one-day races, he will have marked this stage as one which he can win. 150/1.

Matteo Trentin, really impressed me with his patient riding in the back of the breakaway down the finishing stretch in Lyon, to win. He rode much smarter than his 23 years would suggest, and it's surprising he hasn't won before. He has stated that his favourite races are "all the classic with cobblestones" and by finally winning as a pro he may have the confidence to go for another win here. 200/1.

In the stage 14 into Lyon, Orica-greenedge permitted Cam Meyer, Simon Clarke, Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini to attempt to get into the breakaway, and it was Albasini whom obliged. However, out of those attacking riders within the team, the young Australian Cameron Meyer is the only one who hasn't had a proper attempt at getting into a break or going for a stage win. A promising future GC contender, and with OGE acknowledging publicly that they'll want a rider in the likely break in this stage, I believe they'll want Meyer to gain much-needed experience by being in it, and indeed instructing him to make such a move.

Good luck to all,
SP