stage 9

The last time the race came into Bagnères de Bigorre (from Toulouse start) for the finish was in the 2008 edition, where Italian Riccardo Ricco covered the downhill run best by soloing in a manner similar to the way his countryman, the great Il Pirato did previously.

Tommy Voeckler opened up as short as a 5/1 clear favourite with the books, but soon faced competition from traders as his price moved out to as much as 11/1 on here, before moving back down and settling into the 8/1 range, whilst still commanding favouritism. On initial inspection the favouritism is warranted -- Voeckler knows the territory like the back of his hand from having trained in the region countless times in his career. Moreover, he won a somewhat similar stage (16) of the Tour last year, from Pau to Bagneres de luchon, covering 197kms; which came after the 2nd rest day. While the parcours was also mountainous on that day, the climbs were different, for the riders came up the back of the Col de
Peyresourde from the opposite direction to today's stage. Interestingly, the race finished with a long descent down into Bagneres de luchon, where tomorrow the riders will only pass through in the Intermediate sprint.

As mp06 asserts, the Sky teamwork was awesome and powerful yesterday, and Sky must be aware that -- in the least -- Porte must be by the side of Froome and that these two must be clearing their rivals on the final climb of the La Hourquette d'Ancizan by handy times, or risk having them energised in the long 30km descent to the finish line. For instance, Evans, a noted expert descender, must be broken by then, or Sky risks having him come into calculations by passing them and taking some time back on the downhill run.

A breakaway is likely, however whilst Voeckler is suited by the climbs in being able to dance on his pedals, the downhill doesn't seem to suit his style of riding in turning over a big gear for such a considerable distance. His 75th place finish, some 21mins behind Froome, suggests his days as the mercurial French Fred Astaire is well enough behind him to represent value in a 5/1 lay. It may be the case that we see many different groups on the downhill, one of which is likely to be at least a two man Sky group, working together in bringing back a breakaway or holding off a dangerous group behind. If Sky plan this as they should and Froome and Porte are heading for the line in the lead, or more likely, making good time on a breakaway, and that it may be the case where Froome presents Porte the victory for his loyal and dedicated service on another sunny and very warm day in the mountains.

Laurens Ten Dam represents excellent value at big prices on offer in antepost, but I like Porte for this, Sky won't want to give their rivals a sniff.

Good luck to all,
SP

SP - I think Peter kennaugh was the key yesterday and his interview after the Stage revealed a lot. He killed Quintana and Rolland on the descent yesterday and gave Porte and Frrome the platform on the final climb. He said Froome kept saying to him it was so important he was still with them going over the top: "We need you with us at summit for the descent".
Sky will try and make sure they have Kennaugh, Porte and Froome together for the final descent today.
I would like to think Saxo Bank or Movistar will shake the tree so much on the final climb that it isolates Froome and forces them to take risks they don;t want to take on the downhill run

Anyway for this Stage I have thrown a few Euros each way at Daniel Navarro at a huge price

Interesting thoughts Clay, I agree in relation to Kennaugh's brilliant descent, when at times he was moving away from those following, yesterday. Furthermore, I agree that Froome and Porte will want him to be in attendance when summitting the final climb as his assistance will - no doubt - be as important as it was yesterday, although whether this can be achieved depends on how hard Sky have to go to break some riders on the final climb. This is essentially the crucial point you've raised by bringing the Kennaugh question into it: Do Sky risk going to slow to keep Kennaugh to the summit with them, knowing he'll be a great advantage on the descent, but risk going at a pace suitable for a host of contenders to stick on comfortably, and knowing that some amongst them might be better descenders?

My initial thought is that Kennaugh may become a liability as he doesn't have the pace of Froome, let alone Porte, for the final climb; however, even if some contenders stick on with a slower Sky duo to keep Kennaugh with them, Kennaugh will bring them to the back of a better descender, since after all, it'll be regarded as a Sky win for them to finish with the same time as the contenders on this stage. The only problem with this hypothesis is that they give away the stage honours, however I still think a breakaway is a good chance today, Navarro at over 10mins behind, will likely be allowed to go if he's up for it. He's not one to be discounted, but I'd prefer to have a look at him in-running since I'm paying for my antepost bets by laying Voeckler.

Cheers,
SP

Froome left with Porte alone early, not supporting allegations the whole team is on drugs

will be difficult to controll through the middle flat, would you think Sagan's men will help up to the sprint?

Wow realy thought today was going to be a breakaway day but mad scenes in France!! Froome on his own already in a small select group, Porte has been dropped!! They are going an unbelievable pace with over 100km to go. We could be in for a big shock and a big shake up today! Terrible crash for Kennaugh, thta could really affect sky for the rest of the tour!

Having to watch the TDF website and the graphics because I am in work.  Even from what I can see and updates looks mental.  How come porte has his own group?  Did he drop off himself?

A lot of gc contenders tried to attack on first climb and with kennaugh lost to a crash, it was left to Porte to lead the peleton over the first 2 climbs he was then done and had to drop off, left froome leading for a bit. Seems like Contador has most men with him, so could be a day for Bertie to attack. Evans is also amongst riders who have beeen dropped, but they are all only just over a minute down on the elite peleton. I think it will all come back together soon, they have a sizeable flatish section for a bit. A break has gone clear now with hejsedal, Danielson, Rolland and Anton in it. I think Froome will be happy to let them go and ease off for a bit. A very strong breakaway though!

every try of a forecast how the stage will continue is to be dumped within minutes, will teach those who say cycling is boring and Froome GC backers @ 1.2

thanks happybacker

MOV helping Froome, what a joke

Movistar not helping froome, they've been setting a strong tempo to try and break him. They have the strongest team left in the elite peleton now, and have even sent Rui Costa up the road in to the break. Costa could be a very dangerous man to let go. Theyve dropped Contador from the froome/ Valverde group now!! which was probably Valvered's plan! wish thus was on tv now, sounds an amazing day to watch!

This sounds mental!! Could be the craziest day evr at the tour, never heard anything like it! Valverde has attacked now and Froome can't go with him!

Movistar were brilliant until the final climb and then they let it slip!!! They could have laid into Froome but they kinda let it slip

Yes was a strange race from Movistar, they did everything right, had plenty of riders left for the last climb but apart from a couple of half hearted digs from Quintana, they seemed to back off if anything?? Felt like a bit of an anti-climax in the end, expected a big dig from Valverde 2 or 3 km from the final summit but maybe he just didn't have the legs left after such a long brutal day.
To be fair Contador still had a few teammates too and was thinking he might have a go on that final climb but it's likely every one was just beat by then after 2 killer days.
Good to see Mollema up there again, my 300/1 ew bet not looking bad at the minute, just got to pray he does the best tt of his life on wednesday!

Strange stuff from Belkin in the Froome group chasing the two leaders. Three representatives, but only Gesink doing any real work at the front, with Mollema showing up for a couple of digs only, and Ten Dam sitting in behind doing nothing and not realizing that the time wasn't coming down. Missed opportunity for stage honours, needed better from a pretty good outfit on paper.

Happybacker -- are you going to lay off some Mollema green, mate?

Cheers,
SP

wow great stage,im off to amsterdam today,then gothenburg for a week,please keep tipping guys

SP i would be laying off if Mollema somehow beat all the gc contenders in the TT and looks like he has a chance of winning but i don't think that is likely. Realistically at  best he might challenge for 2nd but he has very little chance of making up the time on Froome. So i shall just be watching and enjoying the run i'm getting for my money!

mollema average 532/1...
top 3 33/1
top 6 5/1

eggs all in one basket

Moviestar missed a golden opportunity yesterday but a great stage and (begrudgingly the Antman deserves praise) He hung in well.

bb66 When: 07 Jul 13 12:15

MOV helping Froome, what a joke


exactly what I thought confirmed:
What I found amazing was that the Spaniards then rode with Froome sitting on their wheels instead of aborting the attack, and Contador had to have his team chase the move down. The only way Movistar or Saxo-Tinkoff were going to really put pressure on the race leader was to repeatedly attack him in the valley until he eventually had to let some of them go.

Robert Millar on http://www.cyclingnews.com/blogs/robert-millar/the-great-escape