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Can't see a thread here so I'll start one before race starts. I've laid Cavendish-don't think course will suit and still not 100% fit and the Gorilla- Greipel just doesn't win often enough. Hope to lay Sagan in running think the first day crash took lot out of him.
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Not sure i understand your logic? is there any reason to believe Cav is unfit. He rode very strongly in the TTT yesterday. He was very good at the Giro. He just hasn't had a stage to suit yet (except stage 1 which was a mess). Would have thought there is every reason to think he'll be in the finish on this one. He is the best sprinter of all time. Maybe I'm missing something?
Agree with you that Mark Cavendish is a lay in Stage 5. Has been on antibiotics and there are a few climbs on the stage.
Looks a hard one to call today even the bookies don't seem sure which way it will go. It definitely doesn't look like a pure sprinters stage to me but then with Cav and Greipel wanting the points they may well give this a go (tho as Clay says stage 6 is 100% a Cav stage). If it does turn in to a full on bunch sprint i'd always be with Cav especially as he says he feels much better now, so he could be one to back in running if it looks like it is going that way.
Feels more like a Sagan type stage to me but as Jan said he doesn't look 100% having been beaten by Gerrans in a sprint. So maybe Orica will fancy giving it a go again, they are a team in such supreme from that they could well be capable of doing something special again. Maybe a day for Goss?? or Impey??
Then the more I look at today i think it might well be a day for a breakaway to go all the way?? So i think it's a no bet day (maybe Cav/Goss in running??)
Just one to watch and enjoy!
Feels more like a Sagan type stage to me but as Jan said he doesn't look 100% having been beaten by Gerrans in a sprint. So maybe Orica will fancy giving it a go again, they are a team in such supreme from that they could well be capable of doing something special again. Maybe a day for Goss?? or Impey??
Then the more I look at today i think it might well be a day for a breakaway to go all the way?? So i think it's a no bet day (maybe Cav/Goss in running??)
Just one to watch and enjoy!
hehe, break? Not a chance.
Gerrans wants to keep yellow, sprinters all think they have a chance & need the green jersey points = no chance of an 'all day' break surviving.
Gerrans wants to keep yellow, sprinters all think they have a chance & need the green jersey points = no chance of an 'all day' break surviving.
I think the Orica-Greenedge suggestion, is certainly one worthy of contemplating or expanding on.
The feeling in the Orica-Greenedge team must be quite high and positive, the lads must be quite jubilant after a great performance in stage 3; both with Gerrans' stage victory after an excellent lead-out by Impey, and Clarke's representation in the breakaway and his dogged solo attempt at getting the Polkadot jersey by being the first over the final climb; and, of course, their remarkable TTT victory yesterday. It is true, that amongst Australian sportsmen (perhaps stemming from dressing room stories of our proud international men's cricket team) there is a deep tradition of mateship spirit amongst the members of a team; and in a successful team, or more appropriately in a situation such as this where the team has come together over these two great team performances -- a bit of the "mongrel" comes out, in order to continue what's been started... a fierceness or hardness for doing it for your mate, if you will.
With Gerrans in yellow, it is a very high expectation that Orica-Greenedge will look to control the race for a sprint finish -- they should get support. Temperatures in the high twenties are forecast, so any breakaways should sizzle out in front over the long 228 kilometre distance, until Orica-Greenedge determine that they are cooked and ready to be reeled in for a bunch sprint -- where it might be a mistake to overlook the intimidatory tactics of the Australian team, as O'Grady, the team leader on the road, marshalls his troops into a winning train; where it might be either Impey or Goss, as Happybacker suggests, who will put everything on the line to get the win for the team.
There's something which isn't right about Goss, he's been nowhere at the Tour when suited, and his last decent performance at the Tour de Suisse was a 2nd place finish behind Demare, and his last win was in March in the Tirreno-Adriatic stage 2, albeit over a similar distance. He may have lost some confidence...
Greipel should be capable of handling the rough riding amongst the Aussie team, but the cunning nature of Cavendish will be more suitable, I think. I can't have either though as they presently jostle for favouritism, and with Impey's very good performances and price quite enticing at 89/1, I will select Impey as my main bet with Goss at 29/1 as a saver.
Good luck to all,
SP
The feeling in the Orica-Greenedge team must be quite high and positive, the lads must be quite jubilant after a great performance in stage 3; both with Gerrans' stage victory after an excellent lead-out by Impey, and Clarke's representation in the breakaway and his dogged solo attempt at getting the Polkadot jersey by being the first over the final climb; and, of course, their remarkable TTT victory yesterday. It is true, that amongst Australian sportsmen (perhaps stemming from dressing room stories of our proud international men's cricket team) there is a deep tradition of mateship spirit amongst the members of a team; and in a successful team, or more appropriately in a situation such as this where the team has come together over these two great team performances -- a bit of the "mongrel" comes out, in order to continue what's been started... a fierceness or hardness for doing it for your mate, if you will.
With Gerrans in yellow, it is a very high expectation that Orica-Greenedge will look to control the race for a sprint finish -- they should get support. Temperatures in the high twenties are forecast, so any breakaways should sizzle out in front over the long 228 kilometre distance, until Orica-Greenedge determine that they are cooked and ready to be reeled in for a bunch sprint -- where it might be a mistake to overlook the intimidatory tactics of the Australian team, as O'Grady, the team leader on the road, marshalls his troops into a winning train; where it might be either Impey or Goss, as Happybacker suggests, who will put everything on the line to get the win for the team.
There's something which isn't right about Goss, he's been nowhere at the Tour when suited, and his last decent performance at the Tour de Suisse was a 2nd place finish behind Demare, and his last win was in March in the Tirreno-Adriatic stage 2, albeit over a similar distance. He may have lost some confidence...
Greipel should be capable of handling the rough riding amongst the Aussie team, but the cunning nature of Cavendish will be more suitable, I think. I can't have either though as they presently jostle for favouritism, and with Impey's very good performances and price quite enticing at 89/1, I will select Impey as my main bet with Goss at 29/1 as a saver.
Good luck to all,
SP
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