TdF 2013 pre-race chat.

So are u big red on Bertie then SP?

Field red, Clay.

I'm willing to take him on, on the basis of his current season form. He hasn't done anything positive and it's very rare for riders - even those of his calibre - to come into the Tour with no form and perform at the very top. If I wanted to look through rose-tinted glasses than I would add your Contador, along with:

Evans    3rd Giro d Italia
         8th Giro del Trentino
         22nd Tirreno-Adriatico
         3rd Tour of Oman

Purito   16th Crit du Dauphine
     2nd Volta Catalunya
     5th Tirreno-Adriatico
     4th Tour of Oman

Schleck  15th in Stage 7 of the Tour de Suisse, is the only result since his pelvis fracture in 2012.

At least with these three, the odds provide the opportunity to take them in-running should some glimpses of form appear in favour of a decent result.

Cheers,
SP

While I think your opinion on Wiggins is nonsense SwingingPick (lets not rehash it here), I don't hate the Quintana pick.
I'd be very worried about his preparation though.

He's exceptionally talented but why wasn't he at the Dauphine or Tour of Swisse? It's 9 weeks since the Ardennes, that doesn't look like a proper prep to me. Is this a training run for the Vuelta?

When I lived in Australia it wasn`t possible to watch any cycling live not even the Tdf. There was a highlights package the next day tho..

Tavaris -- I don't share your concerns regarding Quintana's preparation, although you pose a valid question and thus one worthy of our enquiry.

Quintana didn't ride any of the Ardennes classics, but I think you are referring to the month of April, when the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and the cobblestone races/spring classics are both held. Certainly it's a long period to not be racing, I agree, but if you compare the amount of riding, both in days and kilometres, that he had last year and so far this year (and where he'll be after the Tour) it looks quite similar, in fact.

2012	Season	2013	Post Tour	Diff
60	Days	30	51	9
9330	Kilometres	4842	8246	1084

...In fact; for anyone wondering if he was going to ride the Tour in April, the likelihood that he was, was relatively clear -- as his long rest from competitive racing continued to stretch out. However, I believe it comes down to the simple idea, of not wanting to over-race a very promising young rider. Like with a 2 year-old thoroughbred horse, less is often more, and cotton gloves handling makes for a fresher competitor. Yes, Quintana requires experience, but it's a fine balancing act, because he doesn't require extra miles or tests, since he has the natural talent.

So, in conclusion, the lack of miles is consistent with the way Unzue wants to treat Quintana, and I don't believe he is at a disadvantage from a perceived lack of riding as he oozes natural talent, is on track with previous year's season of riding, and has been dreaming of riding in the Tour so eagerness and freshness are advantages for him.

G'day RAPS -- yep, things have changed a fair bit since the very-early-nineties, although I think SBS (tv network) were already getting their foot in the door with those highlights package shows. Where do you live now? And how is the coverage?

Cheers,
SP

In addition, to answer your question: According to those figures and the statements by Unzue, there is next to no chance he'll be riding the Vuelta this year. SP.

Sp - you have accused me of having a laugh and of being 'discredited' over fancying Bertie to win, u saying the same about Pulford in the Post today? He having a laugh too? Discredited?

Clay -- I have no problem with you liking Contador for the win. As I've maintained in previous posts on the relevant thread you initiated, sometimes the I just have a feeling about... bets do come good. You have a feeling about Bertie because (either one, some, or all) he's done good by you in the past, you like his price, you like his pre-race standing, and you like that he is a top-class rider with potential.

Again; as I've said previously: I am attracted to forums as they are an excellent tool to test ones' theories or the theories of others. I've got nothing against Bertie, nor anything against you for presenting him as a potential winner of this year's Tour. I'm open to being convinced, I actually hope most of us will turn a profit on this race, but I expect to be presented with a working argument beyond the one's you've thus far furnished the threads on this forum.

It just doesn't stack up, and whilst I'm unfamiliar with Pulford, he is indeed having a laugh if he is setting out a convincing case for Bertie's win. Although, I can understand that a Bertie win can happen. More evidence, however, suggests that he can't win, and given his price -- as Happybacker has stated previously -- he is way unders, and of no interest to me. 

Yes, when one presents a case which isn't supported by working evidence, one becomes discredited.

Cheers,
SP

SP, Quintana did indeed ride all 3 of the Ardennes Classics.
DNF in the Amstel Gold followed by disappointing finishes of 59th and 50th in La Fleche Walloone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

I think he possibly has a Grand Tour in him someday and really hope he lines up in the Vuelta this year against his fellow Colombians Uran, Henao and Betancur as that can be a great race.

I just can't ignore his prep for this race, it's a huge worry.
To illustrate:

Christopher Froome	4/6	Dauphine
Alberto Contador	11/4	Dauphine
Joaquim Rodriguez	16/1	Dauphine
Richie Porte	20/1	Dauphine
Nairo Quintana	25/1	Ardennes
Cadel Evans	25/1	Giro
Teejay Van Garderen	28/1	Suisse
Alejandro Valverde	33/1	Dauphine
Andy Schleck	40/1	Suisse
Daniel Martin	66/1	Suisse
Jurgen Van Den Broeck	80/1	Dauphine
Thibaut Pinot	80/1	Suisse
Ryder Hesjedal	100/1	Suisse
Pierre Rolland	100/1	Dauphine
Andrew Talansky	125/1	Dauphine
Bauke Mollema	150/1	Suisse
Jakob Fuglsang	150/1	Dauphine
Thomas De Gendt	200/1	Dauphine
Thomas Voeckler	200/1	Dauphine
Rein Taaramae	200/1	Dauphine
Robert Gesink	250/1	Giro
Rui Costa	250/1	Suisse
Igor Anton	250/1	Suisse
Janiz Brajkovic	250/1	Suisse

Sp - interesting response but one I disagree with.
I will explain one more time.
While I accept Bertie isn't in the same form as when previously winning Grand Tours I suspect this year he has built the whole season around the TDF. He said before and during the Daulphine that he was 75% fit. I reckon Froome was 100% fit.
Contador is the best cyclists I have ever seen. He has got the lot. Excellent time trialer and a brilliant climber who is also tactically very astute.
Froome is a bad fav imho. He should not be odds on. Yes people will point to this season's form. But does he really deserve to be going off a shorter priced fav than Wiggo last year??? Not in a million years. Not only is this a stronger field but it's also a terrain that will suit his competitors more than it suits him in my opinion. Last year's Tour suited Wiggo down to the ground and the opposition was weak.
I also think the Vuelta is a very important form guide despite most on here ignoring it. And while I have factored in tiredness to Froome's modest display I also think there were other reasons.
Watch the Vuelta closely again. Froome was constantly attacked in the race. And he was more than capable of responding to one or two massive attacks. In the first week Contador would put in a big attack, drop Froome only for Froome to come back at him. He couldn't shake him. But when Contador started to throw lots of attacks at Froome they shook him and shook him off the tree. The amount of attacks thrown in by Contador - not all of them paid off - was frightening. And I feel the sheer volume of these attacks, aided by Rodriguez and Valverde, did it for Froome. And it was interested that Froome was talking about the Spanish 'pact' the other day and how he was wary of them.
Contador is entering this Tour with his strongest team behind him.
The prices should be a lot closer between them. It's the equivalent of Andy Murray playing Rafa Nadal in a grand Slam final. There is no way on earth Murray would be so short to beat Nadal, regardless of form.
I like Rodriguez and I respect him. Can he win this? Hmmmmmmm Not sure! His time trialing is going to leave him with a lot to do.
And out side of those three I can't see anyone else winning it.
So yes I think Bertie is huge value to win it this year. I wasn't pleased to see him crash today - he seems to be like a moth to a light with crashes in the TDF these days - he seems to have come through it fine.

Contador needs a lot to go right to win I think.
In particular he needs at least 2 others to be respected by Sky in the 2nd and 3rd weeks. Last year they only had to worry about Nibali, if Contador has the help from Purito and Valverde/Quintana then maybe Sky can be broken and he has a chance.

But, Froome has been awesome this year, Contador hasn't.
I couldn't say the current prices are completely wrong but I don't see any value whatsoever in Contador. Maybe if he was 4 or 5/1 I could get interested but he's too short on what he's achieved this year.

Entirely possible that he's been playing a type of rope-a-dope and it really was allergies that had him lose 3+ minutes in the Dauphine ITT but to be backing someone for a race like this in this at such a short price I'd like to see a little more form in the book.

Of course Quintana rode the Ardennes when one opens their seperate 1-Day Classics file. My apologies for that oversight gents -- excluded anything which wasn't GC related, unless route covered a Tour stage or injuries, and stuck it into a seperate file. I actually watched two of those races and don't think I heard his name mentioned in the mix once?? Nevertheless, as we know -- riding 1-day races is an expert skill, and I don't think we can read much into those results, given it was his first attempts at them. And, it perhaps explains Valverde's excellent podium results, and a top-10 in La Fleche Wallonne, which I didn't watch.

I don't have information on the DNF though, anyone know what happened there?

After reviewing my notes on Andy Schleck, I might also add his 18th place finish in the 1st stage of the Tour of California as indication that there was still some of the old Andy to be had. I'm not sure it changes much, but Evans and Schleck belong on the Contador line of questioning: No form.

Clay - I won't be watching the Vuelta, if you say that that happened I'm willing to accept it. Consider though, that you are presenting examples of the use tactics, and he needs good form to have access to a wide range of tactics to use. Can he do what he was doing in the Vuelta. If yes, then he'll be dangerous, for sure. I'm not convinced!

Okay, no one on your table hasn't ridden since the Ardennes, but none of those riders are (all three) young, featherlight, and being handled with cotton gloves by team management. You've made a point, however your illustration only shows one side of the argument.

"Contador needs a lot to go right to win I think. I agree Tavaris, he needs to:
1.) turn around an entire season of form firstly.
2.) then he needs to become the best we've seen him, previously.
3.) whilst hoping that the best of Froome and Quintana isn't better than his best once was, in my book.

Why are bookies' largely successful? They stick to a system which doesn't ignore such fundamental indicators as form. They'll get it wrong from time-to-time, however down the track they're in profit because of the good things they follow and continue to do. By ignoring Contador's form I may lose out by not following Clay and backing him now, if he goes against season form and performs competitively, but in longe-range outlook sticking to a system which follows form will trump a system which ignores such information.

Rope-a-dope would require at least one minor indicator in the season that he could put his trust in his past ability, in my view.

Cheers,
SP