Cycling Road World Championships

Right then, let's be having you.

This is very similar to the Amstel Gold Race, with the race culminating on Cauberg Hill. The AGR is often won by punchers. Unlike the AGR however, there is a flat/downhill section of roughly a mile after the crest, which should mean the sprinters who can get over the hill are in a good position.

So, lets start with the AGR

2012
Gasparotto
Vanendert
Sagan
Freire
Voeckler
Gilbert
Sanchez
Wegmann
Nocentini
Mollema

2011
Gilbert
Rodriguez
Gerrans
Fuglsang
Kolobnev

2010
Gilbert
Hesjedal
Gasparotto
De Waele
Kreuziger

2009
Ivanov
Gesink
Gilbert
Kroon
Cunego

2008
Cunego
Schleck
Valverde
Rebellin

So climbers and especially punchers have a decent record, with Gilbert winning the last two before this year. He came 6th this year despite being in pretty poor form at the time. So on that basis alone, he'd have to be a worthy favourite. However, the extra run-in might mean he is pipped by a sprinter like Peter Sagan, if Sagan can crest the Cauberg in a decent position. Indeed, Sagan's 3rd place finish in the 2012 Amstel Gold Cup shows he is well capable of that. So I'm on at 5/1. I also think the final kilometre may leave the door open for someone like Eddy the Boss @ 22/1.

I might also have small each way pokes on Albasini @ 66/1 and Ulissi @ 150/1, just in case it doesnt go to the sprinters.

I really fancy Simon Gerrans in this - in very good form. I'm suprised his odds are so good.

I have also chucked a fiver on Janez Brajkovic at 999/1 just in case a breakaway wins (which they won't!)

Riders coming into one-day races after Grand Tours can generally feel very strong, almost indestructible, so looking into the Vuelta for form I like Gilbert. His stage 19 win (up that never ending hill) gave a glimpse of the Gilbert of old in both performance and post race interview. So then, combine this with his course suitability, and he becomes the worthy favourite, but nevertheless will only be my supporting bet.

16/1 Big Tom Boonen??? Won Paris-Brussels this month, after smashing the start of the season. This is very good value, and he is my special bet for the season.

Cheers,
SP

I expect Gilbert to be much the strongest

Just checked the course out - definitely one for the iron men...so going with Sagan. Shame for Cav...his chances are reflected in the 230 quote for the race. Btw Vos was class yesterday, enjoyed the race...gl..

Will be interesting to see how Tiernan-Locke gets on climbling against the elite today, could make a few attacks late on if still up there.

Would like to see GB work it to em,after the Olympic road race.
But my lucky pin falls upon,Matti Breschel.

Tiernan-Locke is a nice prospect but his price appears to be missing a zero here

Gone for Purito...outside chance...not confident Spain can get it together for one man...

Would actually like to see Sagan or Gilbert do it.

Nice to have a course that hasn't got the commentators w@nking themselves senseless about "Team GB"

i wouldnt rule out Valverde who seems back to his (hopefully clean) best

Got my 66/1 shot Albasini and my 150/1 shot Ulissi in the break, hoping it stays out...

Tiernan-Locke doing himself a lot of good for tdf ride next year

Will be a cracking finish....these guys will be in the red up the Cauberg for the final time

Domination as predicted

Yep wd Go Ballistic...easy in the end for Gilbert

Awesome power from Gilbert
Tiernan Locke outstanding ride.

Great ride by EBH as well, the Cauberg just took too much out of the legs to catch Gilbert in the sprint

Nice thread marychain1 -- thanks for putting it up!

Cheers,
SP