Froome get his chance of Grand Tour leading Sky Vuelta squad.

Van Den Broeck looks a big price at 40/1ew? How much of a role will TDF fatigue play?

Can't see Froome beating Contador after a hard season. Has to have a go at the Vuelta of course but Contador has a point to prove and comes into the race fresh after a tune up in the eneco tour.

And what a decent tune-up it was for Contador at the Eneco, wasn't it? Looks very solid, however he is far too short at this stage, especially when you take into account that Froome may very well be leading him after the 1st stage, and that makes him a far better investment, in my view. Sure, he has had a hard season, but similarly a case can be made that he'll have "a point to prove" also, sans Wiggo in the team and coming so close last year, effectively as domestique. This is his chance to assert himself in the team like never before, and as a young rider he'll be out to impress, I'm confident. I don't expect him to match Contador in the mountains when it counts if Contador is simply brilliant, but if he can stay ahead by the first week the prices should move appropriately. Not to mention the ideal scenario of him looking very strong after the stage 11 ITT by being ahead over Contador. Nervous market here at this stage of the race, and the prices may flip for these two, don't you think?

VDB - had a great Tour and he now gets his chance in the Vuelta as team leader. Whilst unlikely to win, his role may inspire him to perform well, and forget about 39/1, the 79/1 is an absolute bargain.

Sure fatigue is a factor for riders who have put the miles into their legs ahead of the 3rd and final GT. However, for a race known as a Climber's Tour it is looking pretty mild if not slim, in that context, this year.

At this stage for me: Backing Froome, Laying Contador; and Backing Cobo, Anton, and Mollema for some interest.

Cheers,
SP

PS - Well done on London2012 randw, top Games, and an excellent performance by Team GB mate.

hope Froome is still up for this and can give AC a run for the money (it looked as he never had to go beyond his limits during the TdF) to give us an interesting race to watch. I'm not taking positions pre race though. What about de Gendt for top 3/6, he had an impressive Giro and made me piss my pants on the last mountain stage there

The route looks interesting with many short sharp mountain top finishes like we already had in the Giro, so we won't get big time gaps.

Not had time to have a real look at this. Been on holiday, cycling through the Catalan mountains funnily enough.

Contador looks pretty damn short, but I guess if he's fully tuned up he should win this. Do we expect Sky to get a decent lead from the Team TT? Obviously got no Wiggo/Rogers/Boassen Hagen. Had a small play on VDB, but going to concentrate on some of the stage profiles for the next few days.

Team Sky seem a reasonable lay @ around evens  for this TTT very short @ 16.5 K & quite technical.

Bit of an upset there - Movistar were longer than 100 before the race. So is it going to be possible to bet on the second stage too?

Swift very short for this stage. It will almost definitely be a bunch sprint but 2/1 isnt very attractive. Tempted to take him on with an each way bet on JJ Rojas and a small each way on Matti Breschel of Rabobank. Rabobank have a decent squad for the Vuelta and Breschel is in decent form, winning Stage 3 of the Vuelta a Burgos a couple of weeks ago where he outsprinted Swift to take the stage. That was on cobbles and Swift was in form in Poland but I'll take a chance at a price.

16/1 and 50/1 with Lads (1/4 1,2,3) seem reasonable, most other books go 1/5

Stage 2 added late last night, but far less matched before the start than there was on the first stage which was up for much longer. Why isn't it possible to put the stage markets on a week in advance as with football fixtures? I agree that 2/1 is too low on Swift.

Contador proved just what the TDF was missing...someone who could attack, attack, attack. There is no way on earth Wiggo would have won the Tour in such circumstances. He could barely live with Nibali and Froome's attacks ffs.

Yes, shaping up to be an excellent race.  As Contador gains race fitness he ought to be able to make the attacks stick. I like Froome a lot (would have liked him even more if he'd stood up for himself and explained to the Sky chaps that he was by far their strongest rider in the 2011 Vuelta) but he was tactically naive last year and at the individual level this is a very tactical race. I also recall that tremendous mountain stage when for all money he looked like he'd broken Cobo but the latter got back up to him to save his race. I don't think Cobo would have been a match for Contador in that situation.
I love the Tour de France but have a real soft spot for this one after last year. A race for the connoisseur. Good to hear from you again SP.

Claydavis still talking sh1te I see. By the way, Contador is a SHOCKING price for the GC - massive lay.

For all Contador's attacks, he didnt get anywhere, and finished 4th of the 4 leaders. I think Froome found it easier than it loked to stay with them, just realised that a consistent pace would mean that the attackers would come back to him, and he had the greater kick.

To say Contador would have beaten Wiggo and the first rate Sky train is laughable. We've seen the way Sky paced their climbs to make sure that any attackers ultimately only hurt themselves by going into the red with the extra effort they need to attack. There's no way Contador would have been able to make up the time differences on Wiggo he'd have needed to from the TTs.

Still, its good to see him back and this is going to be an intriguing race

Wiggo struggled with Froome's 'semi' attacks in the TDF FFS! Contador would blow him away. Constant attacking knocks teams out of their stride - notice of team Sky pacing Froome or helping him yesterday during Contador's attacks - nope.. All blown away

clay u are a joker mate

I don't understand how some people are so thoughtless. It's honestly beyond comprehension how some people read situations and sport so badly.

i agree, anyone who thinks Wiggo would beat Contador wants their head examined. Lets see if the wonderful Wiggo is back to defend his crown. Somehow i doubt it as he knows, he knows

I honestly don't think Cheatador would've beaten Wiggo in 2012 even with his usual doses of EPO and testosterone.

Yes the Giro and the crashes took it out of Contador in the 2012 TDF. Wasn't himself

Didn't expect the flip to come this early in the race between Froome and Contador. If Froome can consolidate up to Andorra (stage 8) tomorrow than he's into odds on, I think. If he does more than that it could get very low, I'll warrant. I'm tempted to wrap this market up for myself right now, and start again with a fresh position, but I still see the ITT looming with not much for Froome to do inbetween, except defend the first significant mountain stage, of course. Since my fundamental philosophy for how I see this race unfolding remains the same, I'm going to hold true to it and stand firm.

Contador is going to have ride very well to inflict great harm into Froome, so far the evidence is he won't. Yes, Froome may have a bad day and Contador takes advantage, however it's unlikely that he'll lose much time even if he does suffer, and if they're even on time again than the ITT will seperate them in Froome's favour, and I can revaluate then, as I had expected to do. Just because things are going as predicted ahead of schedule, doesn't mean I should change my game plan now.

A race for the connoisseur indeed randw. Good to hear from you again, also.

Cheers,
SP

Hello all, enjoying VaE and all the posts but been too busy to post. Got a half ironman on Sunday and if I don't win the bike leg, I'll never show my face again!

Clay ... You mean 2011 TdF? Your Contador views are becoming a little desperate .... almost as much as Sir Denis' replies!! All good stuff!!

SP - voice of reason as always. I backed Froome at 4 and 3.8 and I won't be laying just yet. Contador sure can time trial but he is probably not upto Froome's top 3 or 4 in the world status. Cobo top 6 is almost worth it too .... is it going to get steep enough for him?

Catch you after Sunday!

I wouldn't call that Froome consolidating, not in the least bit. He didn't self-destruct that's true, got a lot of work done by the team in the early parts of the switchback climb, admittedly. However he seemed a little nervous in terms of attacking and responding, without much thinking, really. I think this comes down to what red and white has mentioned in his earlier post, about him being "tactically naive last year". It would seem that he still has that naivety about him as evidenced in this stage, and I think that comes from the pressure of expectation more so, this time. Froome didn't need to do half the things he did on this stage, and by the final bit of riding he was out of fuel, expectedly. We saw that from Contador also - the Bertie of old would have ridden away to an easy stage victory, but Froome made him work for it earlier, and he was pedaling squares into the final turn. So, whilst he gained some time back on Froome, it wasn't emphatic, and confirms my view that the market is very fond of Contador this year. That's fine with me, because it suggests that it's more emotional than evidence-based. And while emotions may win out ultimately, it's plain to me that I should expect more flips and better prices ...and perhaps even up to another two riders enter into contention.

In any case, I expect the third flip to come by the conclusion of the ITT should results go as expected there.

HoD - yes it gets steep! The stage before the second Rest Day (16) looks like it will give a climber fond of steep climbing a good opportunity to do something with the race. And also, the penultimate stage (20) is even more brutal, I would suggest. Good to hear from you, and good luck in the bike leg - easiest part of any triathlon, right?

I think the way the Vuelta is being branded this year, is it's all about excitement, not knowing who will win until the very last moment; shorter stages with arduous climbs which can really see anything happen. It's finely thought-out, and as I look more and more at it, it would seem that laying the favourite is the clear tactic to follow. Control the liability, wait for the flip, and take the small profit. Then repeat. For now, I'm back into laying Contador and backing Froome on the theory that Froome will gain back what he lost today and then some, in the ITT, by which time we should see the third flip for the two favourites.

Cheers,
SP

can someone please explain to me why rodriguez isnt going to win this? thanks

Suppose it depends on Tine Trial Sir Dennis & how much time hes going to concede to Contador/Froome

Contador will win this. He is getting better as the Tour goes on. Flexed his muscles to Froome yesterday

awesome effort by rodriguez again today, i think he's winning this

Purito has got an excellent chance to win this race at this stage of proceedings, and it's likely that Contador will only get better with more riding. As geoff m asserts, a lot is reliant on what Purito can do in the ITT. It's likely that he'll lose up to 2mins, and that's significant but he's still in with a fair chance to win. Although, there is the possibility however, that he'll lose something like 3mins to someone like Froome, and that almost ends his chances, one would imagine. On the other hand, the small gap between Froome and Bertie will only widen after the ITT, and whilst the market should move appropriately, I don't think it'll be a decisive margin, or a race-winning time. There's so much more racing in this race, and the climbs look particulalry problematic, especially with warm conditions, so I could understand if the market is receptive to even a fourth possibility over the three already mentioned, with a good chance of winning.

That being said; laying the favourite is still the best tactic I have observed.

Cheers,
SP

i cant see that purito will lose that much time over the TT. only about the first 8 miles are flat and then its up and down a hill. here's clearly in super form so i just cant see the likes of froome taking several minutes off him. i would think about 1 1/2 mins maybe

Did anyone else notice Froome leading Swift out on that race track finish the other day and wonder what the heck he was playing at? Wiggins leading out Cavendish on the last stage of the Tour with the race already in the bag is one thing, but giving up energy early in a race for a rider who had already flopped a couple of times, and prior to a mountain stage, is quite another. On the mountain stage that followed he was in a position to put time into Purito and Valverde but lost his focus by worrying about having Contador on his back wheel. He should have pretended it was Wiggins who he's used to hauling up mountains. I continue to have serious reservations about Froome being strong enough in the mind to win a grand tour.

yep he's been a silly boy but should win a GT within a couple of years

Confirmation today of Froome's failure in this tour of Spain. He just couldn't hang in there again, and the general consensus that it's too much to back up after the Tour holds true, yet again. Froome, no matter how well he looked in the Tour is not a robot, you can't just keep filling him up and he continues to go on without fatigue.

Laying Contador from the start has absorbed a lot of what went into Froome, but I was too long holding the faith and didn't strip him down when a small profit might have still been an option. Same story with VDB and Valverde, but the way it looks now I'll abandon laying the favourite and hold onto field green for Purito, and keep Bertie in red. On the other hand; a strictly trading approach would have been the most profitable way to make small consistent profits throughout.

Obviously agree with the view Froome will win a Grand Tour soon, freshness will be a key factor, but will look for him to start a season the way Wiggins started this year.

Cheers,
SP

I'm of the opinion that Froome is a follower not a leader. Tucking himself in behind Brad in the Sky team by signing a new two year contract after last year's Vuelta set off the warning lights for me.

Yes, that's a fair conclusion to reach, mate, but I prefer your "tactically naive" opinion earlier. Simply because the naive tag can be attributed to his career, and not just his tactical racing. He undoubtedly had/has people in his ear telling him to do this and that, and yes he has - and will - make some bad decisions along the way. And he got his opportunity here to stake his claim in the team, and I really thought he might take the opportunity, but it's clear that fatigue was going to be a major factor.

So, yes he made some early mistakes in this tour and clearly needs more experience, but this can only be a benefit for his long-term racing plans. Right now he looks like the person left standing after the music stops. He worked for Wiggins, management gave him a bone as the principle for the Vuelta, and the body has said no. That's experience to me - next time the music stops he may be the one pressing the button.

For a young rider to nearly win the Vuelta after putting in so much work for Wiggins last year, management promising him the moon through a professional apprenticeship, and he comes out looking like a "follower". But so what, do followers not win races, do they not get their opportunites to win tours, do they not assume leadership roles, eventually?

I think the more valuable discussion to have surrounding Froome at this stage, is where and what are the upcoming opportunites for a highly talented young rider gaining experience and tactical cunning every time he suits up, to win races? By which I mean tours, since he is perfectly suited.

In relation to stage 16, since the trolls are out and about bickering on the other (perhaps more relevant) threads: Wow, what a cracker! Hard to think that this was just a gravel road a couple of months ago. This is now going to be the Vuelta's SUPERCLIMB and, red and white you said earlier this was "a race for the connoisseur" and I agreed, but I now add to that; Who needs the Tour when the racing is this good in Spain?

Okay, I'm now going to buy some Bertie insurance since his price is heading north, and ride a highly enjoyable Vuelta to the finish with an all-green screen.

Cheers,
SP