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Rest day and then a real treat after some frankly dull stages (unless you're Marychain!). Four big climbs, two HC, two Cat 1. Pivotal to this year's winner will be how quickly they go up the first two (Aubisque and Tourmalet). If Evans, VDB or Nibali are to attack Sky then they must have a go today. Leaving it until Thursday is an option but real last chance saloon stuff.
As for Stage winner ... everyone knows how well Nibali descends so 6-1 doesn't look too bad. For me, VDB has looked strong although whether he can kick off Froome/Wiggins pace I am unsure. Evans looks a desperate man. Rolland is 8 minutes down so Sky won't let him go but he is very strong.
Moncoutie has done nothing ... if he is still in the tour, he is one of the few that (use to be able to) win a stage like this.
As for Stage winner ... everyone knows how well Nibali descends so 6-1 doesn't look too bad. For me, VDB has looked strong although whether he can kick off Froome/Wiggins pace I am unsure. Evans looks a desperate man. Rolland is 8 minutes down so Sky won't let him go but he is very strong.
Moncoutie has done nothing ... if he is still in the tour, he is one of the few that (use to be able to) win a stage like this.
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Froome the bet here
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moncoutie crashed on stage 12, taking the skin off his left leg, he has abandoned, this was to be his last tour.
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Thanks Tin, too tired to look him up!
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rest day tomorrow hod, think you need one 2
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When does Marychain weigh in with his selections, please? Or has he gone subscription only?
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Hah, I am on a good run on this tour, but maybe the rest day has come at the wrong time for me as well.
 I've got my ideas about how I want to approach this stage, but I want to have a little think about how it will pan out a little more first and have a look at prices and what is in the media tomorrow.Its tough to see how a breakaway stays ahead of the GC men here, unless strong riders get given a lot of rope and the leaders take the Tourmalet pretty slowly. Interesting that Paddy Power opened up with 35/1 for Rolland and were quickly knocked all the way down to 8/1, and 45/1 for Schleck that went all the way down to 13/1 at one stage. |
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paddy's cycling odds compiler is having a nightmare tour, he's all over the shop, been way out of kilter with the rest of the firms a few times now
hopefully somebody has been caning it, not me though  |
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Had my first bet on the stage, TJ Van Garderen. He's been even more desperate than Froome to ditch his leader and get up the road, and whilst I've got my doubts about him over the really big stuff he seems to be getting better and better, and I suspect he'll drop Evans at the first sign of trouble in a bid to secure white. Baldy is going 50/1 and 4 places so that'll do for a start.
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please explain why a successful breakaway = dull but a chasedown and bunch sprint = exciting??
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surely this will be won by a tiny climber miles down on GC who's done nothing so far
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Whos baldy?
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Baldfred
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Not many pure out and out Mountain goats these days. It's a real shame
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If only Pozzivivo was here!
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Or Cobo? He said he was just here for Valverde and saving himself for the Vuelta but this might be too tempting. 33-1 best price is not too enticing for me though.
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Just looking down the list ... I thought I knew all the riders in the tour and a bit about most of them .... who the hell is Albert Timmer?! Never heard of him!
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Thanks MC
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cant have Cobo but Movistar have done zilch so far this tour. you feel they will make a big effort in the next 2 stages.
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I don't bet on cycling, but at the current prices I'd be on Scarponi at 48.
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Still no one for Froome??? The best climber in the race?? Oh well.....
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Prefer Thursday for Froome.
I think that this stage (Wed) has more chance of a breakaway succeeding. If it doesn't, Wiggins probably won't get over the top of the last climb much ahead of Nibali or Van Den Broeck, the former of whom is one of the best descenders in cycling and has 16km to try to do something. Froome will have to stay with Wiggins unless he cracks badly. |
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Froome - yes, best climber, but that final descent? Reckon he could be cycled out of it and someone like Nibali, which is why he's so short, should be able to keep a distance. Not enough though to change the GCs standing that much although I'd love to see it happen, not for my pocket but to liven the final few days up a bit more.
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Breakaway for me but as usual it's a lottery, Rui Costa, Rolland, Sorenson, Kessiakoff. Yep, all the polka dot contenders. But the real race will be 2/3 minutes behind
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Kessiakoff looking cream crackered, perhaps more likely to take some of the earlier climbs for the polka dot but I'd be surprised if he is still there on the last climb
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Right then.
I've backed: - Froome each way with Pads @ 14/1 TJVG each way with Slybet (4 places) @ 50/1 I've got £30 waiting to be matched on Nibali @ 11.0 in running Coppel @ 140 average and top 3 @ 32 I wont be back to watch this until about 2.30-3.00 but can't wait, should be superb. |
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This doesn't look like a stage for Froome. No summit finish so he'll be pacing Wiggins up the mountains and there'll probably be a bunch with the Sky riders in the final descent.
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Ok folks - my bets.
To Win: Froome Thibaut Pinot Rui Costa Jelle Vanendert Hoping one of them lands. I've layed; Cadel Evans Pierre Rolland If either of these 2 win it's a very very sore day for me. Good luck one and all |
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HoD, this is what the forum is about, trying to help eachother make money and yours and Razzs MMA thread are about the only ones worth looking at, havent been able to contribute as my computers been bust but theres been some great picks this year, shame about the action, hopefully tomorrow sparks it into life, Nibali too short for me, havin a few quid on VDB and Pinot and a speculative patriotic punt on Roche!
Good luck lads |
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Wiggins has finished ahead of Froome on every descent this tour from memory. Froome's descending skills is questionable at best. He is more suited to the uphill finishes.
Spanner in the works will be if Nibali can attack a few km's before the top of the Peyressourde and Wiggins is unable to respond. Will Sky let Froome follow? I am assuming Porte and Rogers will get dropped before then (big assumption though considering the way the 2 super domestiques have been riding this tour). |
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I saw an interview with Nibali on Italian TV yesterday and he said the descent was 'intriguing' but it wasn't a very technical descent and very hard to slip away on it. He also said Thursday was the best day to attack and he reckoned you will see a lot of action then. He finished by saying he expected VDB to be very busy today an was the man he expected to be doing all the attacking today
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got my 11s matched on Nibali now
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Big day today! Didn't fancy Nibali at 6s and at that price he was a lay to me. 11s however is a different kettle of fish so I'm leaving alone.
I think a break will wind up winning. I don't think Evans will attack too hard. Nibali I can see the Sky try gobbling up each and every time he tries which might knacker him out. As a classic wind up merchant I don't read too much into what he says but his comments about Thursday might have an element of truth about them. I'm leaving this one alone for the time being and will bet in play. I did wonder if Cobo would have a go as surely someone from that team needs to something but for the time being I'm going to sit back and enjoy a pivotal stage for the craic. |
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He also said in another interview that if he didnt break Wiggins today then it was game over
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Christian Knees looks like a total lunatic
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will this break be a success?
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FDJ have three in the break
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Who's going to own up to backing Rui Costa at 5/1 already?
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Nope got him at 44's
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What a flydd on the motorbike
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